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2022 Alaska gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Alaska gubernatorial election

← 2018
November 8, 2022
2026 →
Turnout44.40%Decrease
 
CandidateMike DunleavyLes GaraBill Walker
PartyRepublicanDemocraticIndependent
Running mateNancy DahlstromJessica CookHeidi Drygas
Popular vote132,63263,85154,668
Percentage50.29%24.21%20.73%

Borough and census area results
State House district results
Dunleavy:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Gara:     40–50%
Walker:     30–40%     40–50%

Governor before election

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

Elections in Alaska

The2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor of Alaska. IncumbentRepublican GovernorMike Dunleavy won election to a second term, becoming the firstRepublican governor to win a second term sinceJay Hammond in1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term sinceTony Knowles in1998.[1]

Following voter approval ofBallot Measure 2 during the2020 Alaska elections, this was the first gubernatorial election in Alaska held under the new election process. All candidates ran in anonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election.[3]

In addition to Dunleavy,Democratic formerstate representativeLes Gara,independent former governorBill Walker, and RepublicanKenai Peninsula Borough mayor Charlie Pierce advanced to the general election.[4] In the general election, Dunleavy narrowly received the majority of votes in the first round, preventing aninstant runoff.

Primary election

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien, nominee for governor in2010 and2018[19]
    • Running mate: Shirley Rainbolt[19]

Alaskan Independence Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Dunleavy
(R)
Les
Gara
(D)
Charlie
Pierce
(R)
Bill
Walker
(I)
OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey Research[22]July 20–25, 20221,253 (LV)± 3.0%41%22%5%23%9%[c]
Lake Research Partners (D)[23][A]May 5–11, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%40%24%5%18%3%10%

Results

[edit]
Primary election results[11][24]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican76,53440.43
Democratic
43,66023.06
Independent
43,11122.77
Republican
  • Charlie Pierce
  • Edie Grunwald
12,4586.58
Republican7,3073.86
Independence
  • John Howe
  • Shellie Wyatt
1,7020.90
Republican
  • Bruce Walden
  • Tanya Lange
1,6610.88
Libertarian
  • William S. Toien
  • Shirley Rainbolt
1,3810.73
Republican
  • David Haeg
  • Waynette Coleman
1,1390.60
Independent
  • William Nemec
  • Ronnie Ostrem
3470.18
Total votes188,626100.00

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[25]Likely RJuly 26, 2022
Inside Elections[26]Likely RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27]Likely RJune 29, 2022
Politico[28]Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP[29]Likely RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[30]Likely RMay 12, 2022
538[31]Likely RAugust 25, 2022
Elections Daily[32]Likely RNovember 7, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 Alaska gubernatorial debates
No.DateHostLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee   W Withdrawn  
Mike DunleavyBill WalkerLes GaraCharlie Pierce
1October 11, 2022Civic and Convention Center[33]PPPP

Endorsements

[edit]
Mike Dunleavy (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Les Gara (D)

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Christopher Kurka (R)

Individuals

Charlie Pierce (R)

State legislators

  • Lora Reinbold, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019)[41]

Organizations

Bill Walker (I)

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Declined to endorse

State legislators

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Mike
Dunleavy
(R)
Les
Gara
(D)
Charlie
Pierce
(R)
Bill
Walker
(I)
Undecided /
Not Ranked
Dittman Research[47]October 21–25, 2022403 (LV)147%25%4%23%
251%25%Elim24%
Alaska Survey Research[48]September 25–27, 20221,282 (LV)± 3.0%
143%28%7%21%
248%28%Elim23%
353%47%ElimElim
3*[d]52%ElimElim48%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[49][B]September 6–11, 20221,050 (LV)[e]N/A[f]45%24%6%17%8%U
149%26%7%19%8%NR
254%26%Elim[g]20%10%NR
359%41%ElimElim[h]13%NR
Alaska Survey Research[50]July 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%144%26%11%20%
251%26%Elim23%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Mike
Dunleavy
(R)
Les
Gara
(D)
Natasha
von Imhof
(R)
Bill
Walker
(I)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[51]October 22–27, 2021969 (RV)± 3.2%143%22%8%28%
246%24%Elim30%
349%ElimElim51%

Mike Dunleavy vs. Les Gara

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Les
Gara (D)
Undecided
Hays Research Group (I)[52][C]July 22–24, 2022613 (LV)± 4.0%55%45%

Mike Dunleavy vs. Bill Walker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Bill
Walker (I)
Undecided
Hays Research Group (I)[52][C]July 22–24, 2022613 (LV)± 4.0%50%50%

Results

[edit]
2022 Alaska gubernatorial election[53]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican132,63250.29%−1.15%
Democratic
63,85124.21%−20.20%
Independent
54,66820.73%+18.70%
Republican
  • Charlie Pierce
  • Edie Grunwald(withdrew)[a]
11,8174.48%N/A
Write-in7840.30%+0.09%
Total votes263,752100.0%
Turnout266,94344.40%−5.43%
Registered electors601,161
Republicanhold

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent

[edit]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abSuspended her campaign and endorsed Dunleavy on October 25, 2022 after allegations of sexual harassment against Pierce but remained on the ballot.[10]
  2. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Howe and Kurka with 3%; Toien with 2%; Haeg with 1%; Nemec and Walden with 0%
  4. ^Hypothetical scenario with Dunleavy and Walker as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ^The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
  6. ^Standard polling question.
  7. ^Pierce eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 70% to Dunleavy, 7% to Walker, 3% to Gara, and 20% not ranked further.
  8. ^Walker eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 67% to Gara, 13% to Dunleavy, and 20% not ranked further.

Partisan clients

  1. ^This poll was sponsored by Gara's campaign
  2. ^Poll sponsored byAARP
  3. ^abThis poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^Bohrer, Becky (November 25, 2022)."Mike Dunleavy is 1st Alaska governor reelected since '98".Associated Press. RetrievedNovember 25, 2022.
  2. ^"Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info".Archived from the original on May 4, 2022. RetrievedDecember 10, 2021.
  3. ^Kitchenman, Andrew (November 18, 2020)."Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2".KTOO (FM).Archived from the original on November 18, 2020. RetrievedNovember 18, 2020.
  4. ^"Live Alaska Governor Election Results 2022 – NBC News".www.nbcnews.com. RetrievedOctober 3, 2022.
  5. ^abBrooks, James (August 13, 2021)."Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy will run for re-election in 2022".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedAugust 14, 2021.
  6. ^"Alaska Governor Picks Nancy Dahlstrom as Running Mate". US News. AP. May 23, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2023.
  7. ^"Alaska Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer will not run for reelection in 2022".Anchorage Daily News.
  8. ^"Borough mayor files bid for Alaska governor".KDLL Public Radio for the Central Kenai Peninsula. January 21, 2022.
  9. ^Poux, Sabine; Soldotna, KDLL- (March 9, 2022)."Charlie Pierce picks Edie Grunwald as running mate in Alaska governor's race".
  10. ^Maguire, Sean (October 25, 2022)."Edie Grunwald suspends campaign as lieutenant governor candidate over Pierce sexual harassment allegations". RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  11. ^abcdefg"2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Archived fromthe original on March 30, 2017. RetrievedJune 1, 2022.
  12. ^abKitchenman, Andrew (November 29, 2021)."Conservative Wasilla Rep. Kurka launches bid for Alaska governor".Alaska Public Media.Archived from the original on November 30, 2021. RetrievedNovember 30, 2021.
  13. ^"Republican candidate for Alaska governor Christopher Kurka chooses Homer man as running mate".Anchorage Daily News.
  14. ^Gunzburger, Ron."Online Guide to Alaska Elections, Candidates & Politics".Politics1.
  15. ^abc"Democratic governor candidate Les Gara picks teacher from Palmer as his running mate".Anchorage Daily News.
  16. ^Brooks, James (February 15, 2022)."Anchorage Sen. Natasha von Imhof will not run for reelection or other office in 2022".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedJune 16, 2022.
  17. ^Kitchenman, Andrew (August 20, 2021)."Former state Rep. Les Gara becomes fourth candidate for Alaska's governor".Alaska Public Media. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  18. ^abcdefghijklmno"Gara and Walker begin 2022 campaigns for governor to unseat Dunleavy".Anchorage Daily News.
  19. ^abcdBrooks, James (August 17, 2021)."Former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker will run again for governor in 2022 as an independent".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedAugust 17, 2021.
  20. ^abcColeman, J. Miles (March 11, 2021)."2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline – Sabato's Crystal Ball".
  21. ^"Former US House candidate Alyse Galvin to run for Alaska Legislature". December 28, 2021.
  22. ^Alaska Survey Research
  23. ^Lake Research Partners (D)
  24. ^"August 16, 2022 Primary Election Summary Report - OFFICIAL RESULTS"(PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2022.
  25. ^"2022 Governor Race Ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2021.
  26. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedFebruary 19, 2021.
  27. ^"2022 Gubernatorial race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  28. ^"Alaska Governor Race 2022".Politico. April 1, 2022.
  29. ^"2022 Governor Races".RCP. January 10, 2022. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2022.
  30. ^"2022 Election Forecast".Fox News. May 12, 2022. RetrievedMay 12, 2022.
  31. ^"2022 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived fromthe original on June 30, 2022. RetrievedJune 30, 2022.
  32. ^Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022)."Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings".Elections Daily. RetrievedNovember 28, 2022.
  33. ^Youtube
  34. ^Mizelle, Shawna (December 28, 2021)."Trump endorses Alaska Gov. Dunleavy for reelection -- as long as he doesn't back Sen. Murkowski in 2022".CNN. RetrievedDecember 29, 2021.
  35. ^ab"Trump to rally for Palin, Dunleavy, Tshibaka in Alaska".AP. June 29, 2022. RetrievedOctober 3, 2022.
  36. ^ab"Charlie Pierce recieves [sic] Republican endorsement in governor's race".KINY. April 25, 2022. RetrievedApril 27, 2022.
  37. ^"Alaska Grades & Endorsements".nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2023.
  38. ^"NRA-PVF Endorses Gov. Dunleavy in Alaska Primary".nrapvf.org. July 19, 2022. RetrievedOctober 3, 2022.
  39. ^"Notes from the trail: Mark Begich endorses Chris Constant for Congress, Les Gara has a barbecue with Vic Fischer". May 19, 2022.
  40. ^"Notes from the trail: Why didn't Palin cheer for Mayor Dave Bronson during the Trump Save America rally?". July 12, 2022.
  41. ^"Sen. Lora Reinbold endorses Charlie Pierce for governor". July 25, 2022.
  42. ^abcHopkins, Grier; Josephson, Andy; Spohnholz, Ivy; Wool, Adam (August 9, 2022)."OPINION: Walker has the leadership Alaska needs".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedAugust 10, 2022.
  43. ^"Notes from the trail: Walker picks up new co-chairs". July 23, 2022.
  44. ^""I'm pleased to endorse Bill and Heidi. They are trustworthy, hardworking, well-informed, experienced, and collaborative, and aim to put all Alaskans, including children and First Peoples, on a path to fiscal stability, improved quality of life, and a bright future." ~Santa Claus".
  45. ^Brooks, James (June 23, 2022)."Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". RetrievedJune 27, 2022.
  46. ^ab"Bill Walker's Ratings and Endorsements".justfacts.votesmart.org. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  47. ^Dittman Research
  48. ^Alaska Survey Research
  49. ^Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
  50. ^Alaska Survey Research
  51. ^Alaska Survey Research
  52. ^abHays Research Group (I)
  53. ^"State of Alaska | 2022 GENERAL ELECTION | Election Summary Report | November 8, 2022"(PDF).Alaska Division of Elections. November 18, 2022. RetrievedNovember 22, 2022.

External links

[edit]

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