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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 32.2%[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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 First round results byState House district First round results by precinct Final round results by State House district Final round results by borough/census areaPeltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death ofRepublican incumbentDon Young.[2]Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governorSarah Palin andNick Begich III in the election, becoming the firstAlaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.[3]
The election was the first to use Alaska's newranked-choice voting (RCV) method,approved by voters in 2020. The winners of thetop-four blanket primary advanced to theranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed (asAl Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted.[4][5][6] Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in atraditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008[7] and was sworn in on September 13.[8]
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| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
| Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
| 1[41] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council | N/A | YouTube[42] | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Nick Begich (R) | Santa Claus (I) | John Coghill (R) | Christopher Constant (D) | Al Gross (I) | Andrew Halcro (I) | Jeff Lowenfels (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Josh Revak (R) | Tara Sweeney (R) | Adam Wool (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[43] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[44] | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
| Independent | Al Gross[b] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
| Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
| Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
| Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
| Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
| Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
| Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
| Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
| Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
| Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
| Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
| Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
| Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
| Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
| Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
| Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
| Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
| Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
| Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
| Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
| Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
| Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
| Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
| American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
| Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
| Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
| Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
| Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
| Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
| Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
| Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
| Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
| Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
| Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
| Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 | ||
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[26]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[46] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[47] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | RCV count | Nick Begich (R) | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[55] | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
| 2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
| 2*[c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[56] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
| 2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
| 2*[57][c] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
| June 21, 2022 | Gross withdraws from the race | ||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[58] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
| 2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | RCV count | Nick Begich (R) | Santa Claus (I) | Christopher Constant (D) | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Tara Sweeney (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[59] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
| 3*[60][d] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[61] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[62] | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
| 2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
| 3 | 55% | 45% | – | ||||||||
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | RCV count | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Lora Reinbold (R) | Josh Revak (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[63][A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
| 2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
| 3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[63][A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Al Gross (I) | Josh Revak (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[63][A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.48% | ||
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 48.52% | ||
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
| Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
| Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
| Democraticgain fromRepublican | |||||||||||
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The results were praised bypundits and activists, withFairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, arguing the low number ofspoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[66] Former presidential candidateAndrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless ofpartisan affiliation.[67]
However, experts insocial choice criticized the election procedure for itspathological behavior[68][69] called acenter squeeze.[69][70][71] Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite beingpreferred by a majority of voters to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola.[69][72][73] However, Palinspoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and costing Republicans the seat.[69][74] The final winner,Mary Peltola, was not listed at all on most voters' ballots.[69]
The election was also an example of ano-show paradox, where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect, with high Republican turnout by Palin supporters leading to a Democrat (Peltola) winning.[74][69] Peltola won the race because of 5,200 ballots ranking her last, behind Palin and Begich.[74][75] Similarly, the election was an example ofnegative (or perverse) responsiveness,[74] where a candidate loses as a result of having too much support (i.e. receiving too high of a rank, or less formally, "winning too many votes").[74][76]
In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV.[67] Despite this, a2024 ballot measure to repeal the RCV system ultimately failed.[77] Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt a rulewithout similar behavior.[68]
Partisan clients
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred to each of the more extreme candidates by a majority of voters. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
It's a good thing for Peltola that she didn't attract more Palin voters—she'd have lost. The strangeness continues. Peltola could have actually gotten more 1st choice votes in this election and caused herself to lose. How's that? Let's look. [...] Imagine if Peltola reached across the aisle and spoke directly to Palin voters. Imagine that she empathized with their position and identified issues they cared about that Palin and even Begich ignored. And let's say that as a consequence, Peltola got the first-choice votes of between 5,200 and 8,500 voters who would have otherwise ranked only Palin. What happens as a result? Palin would have gotten eliminated in the first round and Peltola would still not be able to beat Begich.
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