 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 68.67% (of eligible voters) ( 6.31pp) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County results Congressional district results Precinct results
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in New Mexico |
|---|
 |
The2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[1]New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties:Bernalillo,Doña Ana, andSanta Fe counties, home toAlbuquerque,Las Cruces, andSanta Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[3] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.[4][5]
Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos ofMexican heritage and 70% ofSpanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[6] He also won overNative Americans, garnering over 60% of the vote.[7][8] 53% of voters believed theTrump administration was doing too little to helpNative American reservations in New Mexico during theCOVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.
This was the first election since1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboringColorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carryingColfax County, orHidalgo County since 1920, when it was created.[9][10] This was the first election since1948 in whichValencia County voted for the losing candidate.[11] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. president afterJimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the2020 Republican National Convention.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump(incumbent) | 144,067 | 91.25 | 22 |
| Uncommitted | 13,809 | 8.75 | 0 |
| Total | 157,876 | 100% | 22 |
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 181,700 | 73.30 | 30 |
| Bernie Sanders(withdrawn) | 37,435 | 15.10 | 4 |
| Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn) | 14,552 | 5.87 | |
| Andrew Yang(withdrawn) | 4,026 | 1.62 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard(withdrawn) | 2,735 | 1.10 | |
| Deval Patrick(withdrawn) | 971 | 0.39 | |
| Uncommitted Delegate | 6,461 | 2.61 | |
| Total | 247,880 | 100% | 34 |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
← NE | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 Election results by county
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Jorgensen (nominee)[a] | 520 | 33.12% |
| Uncommitted | 330 | 21.02% |
| Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) | 158 | 10.06% |
| Jacob Hornberger (lost)[a] | 154 | 9.81% |
| Adam Kokesh (lost)[a] | 124 | 7.90% |
| Sam Robb (lost)[a] | 90 | 5.73% |
| John Monds (lost)[a] | 63 | 4.01% |
| Dan Behrman (lost)[a] | 58 | 3.69% |
| Arvin Vohra (lost)[a] | 39 | 2.48% |
| James Ogle (lost)[a] | 34 | 2.17% |
| Total | 1,557 | 100% |
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Solid D |
| Inside Elections[19] | Solid D |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Likely D |
| Politico[21] | Likely D |
| RCP[22] | Lean D |
| Niskanen[23] | Safe D |
| CNN[24] | Solid D |
| The Economist[25] | Safe D |
| CBS News[26] | Likely D |
| 270towin[27] | Likely D |
| ABC News[28] | Solid D |
| NPR[29] | Likely D |
| NBC News[30] | Likely D |
| 538[31] | Solid D |
 | This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension. |
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [b] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[32] | October 6 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 53.5% | 40.5% | 6.0% | Biden +13.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[33] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 53.8% | 42.3% | 3.9% | Biden +11.5 |
| Average | 53.7% | 41.4% | 4.9% | Biden +12.3 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,481 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42%[d] | 56% | – | – | – | – |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[35] | Oct 23–29, 2020 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 54% | – | – | 3%[e] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,719 (LV) | – | 46% | 52% | – | – | – | – |
| GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[36][A] | Oct 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[37] | Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 53% | 2% | – | 2%[f] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | – | 44% | 54% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[38] | Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 39% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | – | 43% | 56% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 904 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[34] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 506 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[39] | Jun 12–13, 2020 | 740 (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 53% | – | – | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[40][B] | Apr 20–21, 2020 | 1,091 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 52% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[41] | Jan 3–6, 2020 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 501,614 | 54.29 | +6.03 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) | 401,894 | 43.50 | +3.46 | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 12,585 | 1.36 | −7.98 | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker | 4,426 | 0.48 | −0.76 | |
| Constitution | Sheila "Samm" Tittle[g] David Sandige | 1,806 | 0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman | 1,640 | 0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Total votes | 923,965 | 100% | |||
| Democraticwin | |||||
| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 193,757 | 61.01% | 116,135 | 36.57% | 7,698 | 2.42% | 77,622 | 24.44% | 317,590 |
| Catron | 595 | 25.58% | 1,698 | 73.00% | 33 | 1.42% | -1,103 | -47.42% | 2,326 |
| Chaves | 6,381 | 28.43% | 15,656 | 69.76% | 406 | 1.81% | -9,275 | -41.33% | 22,443 |
| Cibola | 4,745 | 53.30% | 3,975 | 44.65% | 183 | 2.05% | 770 | 8.65% | 8,903 |
| Colfax | 2,611 | 43.40% | 3,271 | 54.37% | 134 | 2.23% | -660 | -10.97% | 6,016 |
| Curry | 4,307 | 28.52% | 10,444 | 69.16% | 350 | 2.32% | -6,137 | -40.64% | 15,101 |
| De Baca | 231 | 25.64% | 656 | 72.81% | 14 | 1.55% | -425 | -47.17% | 901 |
| Doña Ana | 47,957 | 58.03% | 32,802 | 39.69% | 1,882 | 2.28% | 15,155 | 18.34% | 82,641 |
| Eddy | 5,424 | 23.36% | 17,454 | 75.16% | 344 | 1.48% | -12,030 | -51.80% | 23,222 |
| Grant | 7,590 | 52.58% | 6,553 | 45.40% | 292 | 2.02% | 1,037 | 7.18% | 14,435 |
| Guadalupe | 1,234 | 56.37% | 917 | 41.89% | 38 | 1.74% | 317 | 14.48% | 2,189 |
| Harding | 179 | 35.45% | 319 | 63.17% | 7 | 1.38% | -140 | -27.72% | 505 |
| Hidalgo | 823 | 41.69% | 1,120 | 56.74% | 31 | 1.57% | -297 | -15.05% | 1,974 |
| Lea | 4,061 | 19.41% | 16,531 | 79.03% | 326 | 1.56% | -12,470 | -59.62% | 20,918 |
| Lincoln | 3,194 | 30.99% | 6,942 | 67.36% | 170 | 1.65% | -3,748 | -36.37% | 10,306 |
| Los Alamos | 7,554 | 61.45% | 4,278 | 34.80% | 461 | 3.75% | 3,276 | 26.65% | 12,293 |
| Luna | 3,563 | 43.97% | 4,408 | 54.40% | 132 | 1.63% | -845 | -10.43% | 8,103 |
| McKinley | 18,029 | 68.07% | 7,801 | 29.45% | 656 | 2.48% | 10,228 | 38.62% | 26,486 |
| Mora | 1,745 | 64.97% | 903 | 33.62% | 38 | 1.41% | 842 | 31.35% | 2,686 |
| Otero | 8,485 | 36.00% | 14,521 | 61.61% | 565 | 2.39% | -6,036 | -25.61% | 23,571 |
| Quay | 1,170 | 30.21% | 2,634 | 68.01% | 69 | 1.78% | -1,464 | -37.80% | 3,873 |
| Rio Arriba | 10,990 | 66.09% | 5,408 | 32.52% | 230 | 1.39% | 5,582 | 33.57% | 16,628 |
| Roosevelt | 1,802 | 27.27% | 4,634 | 70.13% | 172 | 2.60% | -2,832 | -42.86% | 6,608 |
| San Juan | 18,083 | 34.58% | 32,874 | 62.86% | 1,337 | 2.56% | -14,791 | -28.28% | 52,294 |
| San Miguel | 7,888 | 68.41% | 3,421 | 29.67% | 222 | 1.92% | 4,467 | 38.74% | 11,531 |
| Sandoval | 40,588 | 53.01% | 34,174 | 44.64% | 1,800 | 2.35% | 6,414 | 8.37% | 76,562 |
| Santa Fe | 62,530 | 76.05% | 18,329 | 22.29% | 1,368 | 1.66% | 44,201 | 53.76% | 82,227 |
| Sierra | 2,265 | 38.10% | 3,542 | 59.58% | 138 | 2.32% | -1,277 | -21.48% | 5,945 |
| Socorro | 3,722 | 51.98% | 3,255 | 45.46% | 183 | 1.86% | 467 | 6.52% | 7,160 |
| Taos | 13,121 | 76.37% | 3,715 | 21.62% | 345 | 2.01% | 9,406 | 54.75% | 17,181 |
| Torrance | 2,344 | 32.19% | 4,772 | 65.54% | 165 | 2.27% | -2,428 | -33.35% | 7,281 |
| Union | 383 | 21.41% | 1,388 | 77.59% | 18 | 1.00% | -1,005 | -56.18% | 1,789 |
| Valencia | 14,263 | 44.19% | 17,364 | 53.80% | 650 | 2.01% | -3,101 | -9.61% | 32,277 |
| Totals | 501,614 | 54.29% | 401,894 | 43.50% | 20,457 | 2.21% | 99,720 | 10.79% | 923,965 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by countyBiden won two of three congressional districts.[43]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 37% | 60% | Deb Haaland |
| 2nd | 55% | 43% | Xochitl Torres Small |
| Yvette Herrell | |||
| 3rd | 40% | 58% | Ben Ray Luján |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez |
The state used to be quite competitive, voting for DemocratAl Gore in2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and RepublicanGeorge W. Bush in2004 by 5,988 votes. However, New Mexico has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied onHispanic,Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.[44]
On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that theLibertarian Party nominee in2016 had been former New Mexico GovernorGary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah SenatorMitt Romney in2012 (42.84%) and Arizona SenatorJohn McCain in2008 (41.78%).
On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against theNew Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days afterCongress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit.[45][46] Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith[47] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.[48]
Partisan clients
.jpg)
.jpg)
_(crop_2).jpg)
_(cropped).jpg)
_(3).jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: location (link)New Mexico
