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2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota

← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout79.96% (of eligible voters)[1]Increase
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,717,0771,484,065
Percentage52.40%45.28%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries and caucuses
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2016
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2024
LMN
2024
Senate elections
Class 1
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House of Representatives
Gubernatorial elections
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Secretary of State elections
State Auditor elections
Attorney General elections

The2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[3]Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence against theDFL nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations predicting the election projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately carried the state by a 7.12% margin, significantly improving overHillary Clinton's narrow 1.52% margin in2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican for president since1972.

Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016:Clay,Nicollet,Blue Earth, andWinona, all of which were won byBarack Obama in2008 and2012. The key to Biden's success was his strong performance in theTwin Cities metropolitan area,[5] where he outperformed FDR, LBJ, Obama and Clinton. His vote share inHennepin County, home ofMinneapolis, was the highest of any presidential nominee since RepublicanTheodore Roosevelt in1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in theIron Range,[6] although his performance in the region was still well below what Democrats had historically earned between theNew Deal realignment and the 2016 election. In addition, Biden managed to flipMinnesota's 2nd congressional district, based in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs and exurbs, from Trump.

Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Biden carried 51% ofWhite Minnesotans, as well as 58% of college educated voters and 55% of voters fromunion households.[7] Trump's strength was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden performed better in urban and suburban areas.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carryingKoochiching orMahnomen Counties since those counties were formed in 1906; the first Democrat to win withoutTraverse County sinceGrover Cleveland in1892; the first to win withoutKittson,Norman,Itasca, orBeltrami Counties sinceWoodrow Wilson in1912; the first to win withoutSwift County sinceWilson in1916; the first to win withoutLac qui Parle County sinceFranklin D. Roosevelt in1944; the first to win withoutChippewa,Freeborn,Mower, orRice Counties sinceJohn F. Kennedy in1960 and the first to win withoutFillmore County sinceJimmy Carter in1976. This is the first time since1964 in which Minnesota voted more Republican thanNew Hampshire.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary took place on March 3, 2020.Donald Trump andBill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary[8][9]
CandidateVotes%Delegates
Donald Trump(incumbent)137,27597.739
Bill Weld (write-in)4430.30
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in)160.00
Other write-ins2,8212.00
Total140,555100.039 (of 39)

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020.Elizabeth Warren,Bernie Sanders, and formerVice PresidentJoe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[10]Amy Klobuchar,U.S. Senator fromMinnesota since 2007, expressed interest in running, and formally declared her candidacy in February 2019,[11][12][13] but then withdrew prior to Minnesota's race.

Biden won the most delegates.[14]

This section is an excerpt from2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary § MNresults.[edit]
county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Klobuchar—<30%
  Klobuchar—30–40%
  Klobuchar—40–50%
congressional district
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary[15]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[16]
Joe Biden287,55338.6438
Bernie Sanders222,43129.8927
Elizabeth Warren114,67415.4110
Michael Bloomberg61,8828.32
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[a]41,5305.58
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[a]7,6161.02
Tulsi Gabbard2,5040.34
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)[b]1,7490.24
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[a]5510.07
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)[b]3150.04
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)2260.03
Cory Booker(withdrawn)1970.03
John Delaney(withdrawn)[c]1720.02
Julian Castro(withdrawn)1140.02
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)[d]720.01
Uncommitted2,6120.35
Total744,198100%75

Libertarian caucuses

[edit]
Main article:2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Minnesota Libertarian presidential caucuses

← 2016
February 25, 2020
2024 →
← IA
CA →
 
CandidateJacob HornbergerJo JorgensenVermin Supreme
Home stateVirginiaSouth CarolinaMassachusetts
First vote37
(38.1%)
12
(12.4%)
11
(11.3%)
Final vote47
(59.5%)
32
(40.5%)
Eliminated

 
CandidateAdam KokeshJohn MondsLincoln Chafee
Home stateIndianaGeorgiaWyoming
First vote6
(6.2%)
6
(6.2%)
6
(6.2%)
Final voteEliminatedEliminatedEliminated

 
CandidateMark Whitney
Home stateCalifornia
First vote6
(6.2%)
Final voteEliminated

First alignment vote congressional district results
  Jacob Hornberger
  Jo Jorgensen
  Vermin Supreme
  Lincoln Chafee
  Tie

TheLibertarian Party of Minnesota usedranked-choice voting to tabulate the results of their caucus. After 7 rounds, Jacob Hornberger was declared the winner.

Minnesota Libertarian presidential caucus, February 25, 2020[17][18]
CandidateRound 1Round 7
Votes%TransferVotes%
Jacob Hornberger3738.1%+ 104759.5%
Jo Jorgensen1212.4%+ 203240.5%
Vermin Supreme1111.3%- 11Eliminated
Adam Kokesh66.2%- 6Eliminated
John Monds66.2%- 6Eliminated
Lincoln Chafee66.2%- 6Eliminated
Mark Whitney66.2%- 6Eliminated
N.O.T.A.44.1%- 4Eliminated
Arvin Vohra22.1%- 2Eliminated
Ken Armstrong22.1%- 2Eliminated
Sam Robb22.1%- 2Eliminated
Keenan Wallace Dunham11.0%- 1Eliminated
Sorinne Ardeleanu11.0%- 1Eliminated
Abrahamson [sic](write-in)11.0%- 1Eliminated
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman00.0%Eliminated
Jedi Hill00.0%Eliminated
Souraya Faas00.0%Eliminated
Steven Richey00.0%Eliminated
Round 1 Total97100.0%Round 7 Total79100.0%
Minnesota Libertarian vice presidential caucus, February 25, 2020[19][18]
CandidateRound 1Round 2
Votes%TransferVotes%
Jeff Wood3240.0%+ 03252.5%
Spike Cohen2936.3%+ 02947.5%
NOTA1923.8%- 19Eliminated
Round 1 Total80100.0%Round 2 Total61100.0%

General election

[edit]

Final predictions

[edit]
SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[20]Lean D
Inside Elections[21]Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]Likely D
Politico[23]Lean D
RCP[24]Tossup
Niskanen[25]Likely D
CNN[26]Lean D
The Economist[27]Likely D
CBS News[28]Lean D
270towin[29]Likely D
ABC News[30]Lean D
NPR[31]Lean D
NBC News[32]Lean D
FiveThirtyEight[33]Solid D

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

%support010203040506010/16/20197/31/20209/13/202010/27/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

DFL
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[e]
Margin
270 to Win[34]October 27 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202051.6%41.8%6.6%Biden +9.8
Real Clear Politics[35]October 12–27, 2020November 3, 202048.0%43.7%8.3%Biden +4.3
FiveThirtyEight[36]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202051.8%42.7%5.5%Biden +9.2
Average50.5%42.7%6.8%Biden +7.8

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

DFL
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20203,031 (LV)± 2.5%41%[g]56%--
Research Co.[38]Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%45%54%--1%[h]4%
Data for Progress[39]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,259 (LV)± 2.8%43%51%4%2%1%[i]
Swayable[40]Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020466 (LV)± 5.9%43%53%4%0%
Morning Consult[41]Oct 22–31, 2020883 (LV)± 3.0%42%52%--
Public Policy Polling[42]Oct 29–30, 2020770 (V)43%54%--2%[j]1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[43]Oct 25–30, 20201,138 (LV)44%53%--3%[k]
St. Cloud State University[44]Oct 10–29, 2020372 (A)± 6.7%39%54%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37]Oct 1–28, 20205,498 (LV)42%55%--
SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News[45]Oct 23–27, 2020649 (LV)± 4.3%42%47%--5%[l]6%
Gravis Marketing[46]Oct 24–26, 2020657 (LV)± 3.8%39%53%--8%
Trafalgar Group[47]Oct 24–25, 20201,065 (LV)± 2.92%45%48%2%-4%[m]1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[48]Oct 17–20, 2020840 (LV)± 3.6%43%53%--3%[n]1%
SurveyUSA/KSTP[49]Oct 16–20, 2020625 (LV)± 5%42%48%--
Morning Consult[41]Oct 11–20, 2020864 (LV)± 3.3%42%51%--
Change Research/MinnPost[50]Oct 12–15, 2020[o]1,021 (LV)± 3.1%44%49%2%0%2%[p]2%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[51]Oct 10–13, 2020200 (LV)41%52%--
Morning Consult[52]Oct 2–11, 2020898 (LV)± 3.3%44%50%--
SurveyUSA/ABC6 News[53]Oct 1–6, 2020929 (LV)± 3.9%40%47%--3%[q]10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37]Sep 1–30, 20202,808 (LV)43%55%--2%
Suffolk University[54]Sep 20–24, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%40%47%2%0%4%[r]6%
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
/MPR News/KARE 11[55]
Sep 21–23, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%42%48%--2%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[56]Sep 12–17, 2020718 (LV)± 3.66%42%51%0%0%1%[s]5%
ABC/Washington Post[57]Sep 8–13, 2020615 (LV)± 4.5%41%57%--1%[t]1%
Morning Consult[58]Sep 4–13, 2020643 (LV)± 4%44%[u]48%--2%[j]6%
YouGov/CBS[59]Sep 9–11, 20201,087 (LV)± 3.9%41%50%--2%[v]6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[60]Sep 8–10, 2020814 (LV)± 3.9%41%50%2%1%0%[w]5%[x]
SurveyUSA[61]Sep 4–7, 2020553 (LV)± 5.2%40%49%--4%[y]7%
Morning Consult[62]Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020649 (LV)± (2%–4%)44%[u]49%--
PPP[63]Sep 3–4, 2020877 (V)± 3.3%44%52%--3%[n]1%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[64][A]Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020501 (LV)± 4.38%45%48%4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37]Aug 1–31, 20201,939 (LV)43%56%--1%
Morning Consult[65]Aug 21–30, 2020647 (LV)± (2%–4%)43%50%--
Trafalgar Group[66]Aug 15–18, 20201,141 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%4%-1%[z]2%
Morning Consult[65]Aug 7–16, 2020615 (LV)± (2%–4%)42%50%--
Emerson College[67]Aug 8–10, 2020733 (LV)± 3.6%49%[aa]51%--
David Binder Research[68]Jul 30–31, 2020200 (LV)36%54%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37]Jul 1–31, 20202,288 (LV)47%51%--2%
Morning Consult[69]Jul 17–26, 2020662 (LV)± 3.8%44%47%--
Trafalgar Group[70]Jul 23–25, 20201,129 (LV)± 2.8%44%49%2%-3%[ab]2%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[71][B]Jul 22–23, 20201,218 (V)± 3.2%42%52%--6%
FOX News[72]Jul 18–20, 2020776 (RV)± 3.5%38%51%--6%[ac]6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37]Jun 8–30, 2020860 (LV)42%57%--1%
Gravis Marketing[73]Jun 19, 2020600 (RV)± 4.0%42%[ad]58%[ae]--
Morning Consult[58]May 27– Jun 5, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%48%--
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[64][A]May 26–28, 2020510 (LV)42%50%8%
Morning Consult[69]May 17–26, 2020647 (LV)42%49%--
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
/MPR News/KARE 11[74]
May 18–20, 2020800 (RV)± 3.5%44%49%--7%
Morning Consult[58]May 7–16, 2020600 (LV)± 4%38%55%--
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune[75]Oct 14–16, 2019800 (RV)± 3.5%38%50%--12%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)
OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune[76]Oct 14–16, 2019800 (RV)± 3.5%38%55%7%
DFM Research[77]Feb 26 – Mar 3, 2019550 (A)± 4.2%35%52%7%[af]6%[ag]

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (DFL)
OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune[75]Oct 14–16, 2019800 (RV)± 3.5%40%49%11%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (DFL)
OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune[76]Oct 14–16, 2019800 (RV)± 3.5%40%51%11%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
KFF/Cook Political Report[78]Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019958 (RV)± 4%28%41%21%
Public Policy Polling[79][ah]Oct 4–6, 20191,175 (V)42%52%6%
Public Policy Polling[80][ah]Jun 15–16, 2018717 (V)41%51%8%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
DFM Research[77]Feb 26 – Mar 3, 2019550 (A)± 4.2%35%45%6%15%[ag]

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota[81][82]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,717,07752.40%+5.96%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
1,484,06545.28%+0.35%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
34,9761.07%−2.77%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker
10,0330.31%−0.95%
IndependentKanye West
Michelle Tidball
7,9400.24%
IndependentBrock Pierce
Karla Ballard
5,6510.17%
AllianceRocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
5,6110.17%
Socialism and LiberationGloria La Riva
Leonard Peltier
1,2100.04%
Socialist WorkersAlyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett
6430.02%−0.04%
Write-in9,9650.3%-0.6%
Total votes3,277,171100%
Democratic (DFL)hold

By county

[edit]
CountyJoe Biden
DFL
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Aitkin3,60735.98%6,25862.42%1601.60%-2,651-26.44%10,025
Anoka100,89347.79%104,90249.69%5,3372.52%-4,009-1.90%211,132
Becker6,58933.96%12,43864.11%3741.93%-5,849-30.15%19,401
Beltrami11,42647.24%12,18850.39%5752.37%-762-3.15%24,189
Benton7,28032.70%14,38264.61%5982.69%-7,102-31.91%22,260
Big Stone1,05335.41%1,86362.64%581.95%-810-27.23%2,974
Blue Earth18,33050.84%16,73146.41%9902.75%1,5994.43%36,051
Brown4,75332.48%9,55265.27%3302.25%-4,799-32.79%14,635
Carlton10,09849.58%9,79148.07%4802.35%3071.51%20,369
Carver30,77446.37%34,00951.25%1,5782.38%-3,235-4.88%66,361
Cass6,34234.68%11,62063.54%3271.78%-5,278-28.86%18,289
Chippewa2,22633.67%4,25064.29%1352.04%-2,024-30.62%6,611
Chisago11,80634.15%21,91663.40%8482.45%-10,110-29.25%34,570
Clay16,35750.74%15,04346.66%8392.60%1,3144.08%32,239
Clearwater1,26026.76%3,37271.62%761.62%-2,112-44.86%4,708
Cook2,49665.58%1,20331.61%1072.81%1,29333.97%3,806
Cottonwood1,83430.03%4,16568.20%1081.77%-2,331-38.17%6,107
Crow Wing13,72634.17%25,67663.91%7711.92%-11,950-29.74%40,173
Dakota146,15555.73%109,63841.81%6,4662.46%36,51713.92%262,259
Dodge4,07933.47%7,78363.86%3252.67%-3,704-30.39%12,187
Douglas7,86832.56%15,79965.38%4982.06%-7,931-32.82%24,165
Faribault2,53131.98%5,19165.59%1922.43%-2,660-33.61%7,914
Fillmore4,55137.48%7,30160.14%2892.38%-2,750-22.66%12,141
Freeborn6,88940.96%9,57856.95%3512.09%-2,689-15.99%16,818
Goodhue11,80641.23%16,05256.06%7782.71%-4,246-14.83%28,636
Grant1,30035.58%2,26962.10%852.32%-969-26.52%3,654
Hennepin532,62370.46%205,97327.25%17,3732.29%326,65043.21%755,969
Houston4,85342.42%6,33455.37%2532.21%-1,481-12.95%11,440
Hubbard4,46234.42%8,20263.26%3012.32%-3,740-28.84%12,965
Isanti7,13829.45%16,49168.05%6062.50%-9,353-38.60%24,235
Itasca10,78640.61%15,23957.37%5362.02%-4,453-16.76%26,561
Jackson1,74529.99%3,94867.85%1262.16%-2,203-37.86%5,819
Kanabec2,77430.02%6,27867.93%1902.05%-3,504-37.91%9,242
Kandiyohi8,44036.12%14,43761.78%4902.10%-5,997-25.66%23,367
Kittson1,00638.12%1,54658.58%873.30%-540-20.46%2,639
Koochiching2,65938.41%4,13159.68%1321.91%-1,472-21.27%6,922
Lac Qui Parle1,44635.79%2,52862.57%661.64%-1,082-26.78%4,040
Lake3,64750.64%3,39347.11%1622.25%2543.53%7,202
Lake of the Woods67127.87%1,70470.76%331.37%-1,033-42.89%2,408
Le Sueur5,67233.73%10,77564.07%3712.20%-5,103-30.34%16,818
Lincoln93730.08%2,12168.09%571.83%-1,184-38.01%3,115
Lyon4,63435.94%7,97961.89%2802.17%-3,345-25.95%12,893
McLeod6,41330.64%13,98666.81%5342.55%-7,573-36.17%20,933
Mahnomen1,11248.26%1,14249.57%502.17%-30-1.31%2,304
Marshall1,29525.33%3,72172.78%971.89%-2,426-47.45%5,113
Martin3,30530.02%7,48067.94%2242.04%-4,175-37.72%11,009
Meeker3,86728.58%9,35969.18%3032.24%-5,492-40.60%13,529
Mille Lacs4,40429.98%9,95267.75%3332.27%-5,548-37.77%14,689
Morrison4,36722.33%14,82175.78%3701.89%-10,454-53.45%19,558
Mower8,89946.00%10,02551.82%4212.18%-1,126-5.82%19,345
Murray1,44929.60%3,36368.69%841.71%-1,914-39.09%4,896
Nicollet9,62250.31%9,01847.15%4852.54%6043.16%19,125
Nobles2,93333.65%5,60064.26%1822.09%-2,667-30.61%8,715
Norman1,40440.80%1,95356.76%842.44%-549-15.96%3,441
Olmsted49,49154.16%39,69243.43%2,2022.41%9,79910.73%91,385
Otter Tail11,95832.85%23,80065.39%6411.76%-11,842-32.54%36,399
Pennington2,56835.29%4,53262.28%1772.43%-1,964-26.99%7,277
Pine5,41933.87%10,25664.10%3262.03%-4,837-30.23%16,001
Pipestone1,30626.44%3,55371.92%811.64%-2,247-45.48%4,940
Polk5,43934.88%9,86563.26%2901.86%-4,426-28.38%15,594
Pope2,47735.27%4,41762.90%1281.83%-1,940-27.63%7,022
Ramsey211,62071.50%77,37626.14%6,9812.36%134,24445.36%295,977
Red Lake69131.47%1,45466.21%512.32%-763-34.74%2,196
Redwood2,35528.43%5,77169.66%1581.91%-3,416-41.23%8,284
Renville2,49630.71%5,46767.26%1652.03%-2,971-36.55%8,128
Rice17,40248.76%17,46448.94%8202.30%-62-0.18%35,686
Rock1,55629.69%3,58368.38%1011.93%-2,027-38.69%5,240
Roseau2,18825.98%6,06572.02%1682.00%-3,877-46.04%8,421
St. Louis67,70456.64%49,01741.01%2,8102.35%18,68715.63%119,531
Scott40,04045.52%45,87252.15%2,0532.33%-5,832-6.63%87,965
Sherburne18,06532.48%36,22265.13%1,3252.39%-18,157-32.65%55,612
Sibley2,41728.60%5,86469.38%1712.02%-3,447-40.78%8,452
Stearns31,87937.58%50,95960.07%1,9972.35%-19,080-22.49%84,835
Steele7,91737.47%12,65659.90%5552.63%-4,739-22.43%21,128
Stevens1,92237.80%3,04459.86%1192.34%-1,122-22.06%5,085
Swift1,78434.35%3,31663.86%931.79%-1,532-29.51%5,193
Todd3,28624.79%9,75373.57%2181.64%-6,467-48.78%13,257
Traverse66135.46%1,17262.88%311.66%-511-27.42%1,864
Wabasha4,69635.78%8,15362.13%2742.09%-3,457-26.35%13,123
Wadena2,02326.35%5,52071.90%1341.75%-3,497-45.55%7,677
Waseca3,49633.65%6,62463.76%2692.59%-3,128-30.11%10,389
Washington89,16553.46%73,76444.23%3,8572.31%15,4019.23%166,786
Watonwan1,98738.20%3,10359.66%1112.14%-1,116-21.46%5,201
Wilkin1,02629.91%2,32867.87%762.22%-1,302-37.96%3,430
Winona13,33349.07%13,22748.68%6132.25%1060.39%27,173
Wright28,43034.49%51,97363.05%2,0232.46%-23,543-28.56%82,426
Yellow Medicine1,68830.54%3,73467.55%1061.91%-2,046-37.01%5,528
Totals1,717,07752.40%1,484,06545.28%76,0292.32%233,0127.12%3,277,171
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden and Trump each won four of the state's eight congressional districts. Neither won any district in Minnesota represented by the other party in the House of Representatives, although incumbent DemocratCollin Peterson was unseated in the Trump-won7th district.[84]

DistrictBidenTrumpRepresentative
1st44%54%Jim Hagedorn
2nd52%45%Angie Craig
3rd58%39%Dean Phillips
4th67%30%Betty McCollum
5th80%18%Ilhan Omar
6th39%59%Tom Emmer
7th34%64%Collin Peterson
Michelle Fischbach
8th42%56%Pete Stauber

Analysis

[edit]

After narrowly losing the state in 2016, the Trump campaign identified Minnesota as an offensive target in 2020; polls of Minnesota voters throughout the campaign, however, showed Biden leading. Throughout the summer leading up to the election, theTwin Cities metropolitan area was the epicenter ofBlack Lives Matterprotests, in light of themurder of George Floyd having taken place inMinneapolis.

Trump attempted to court white suburban Minnesotans withlaw and order messaging by using images of rioting in campaign ads and claiming that Biden would "destroy suburbia". These efforts failed, as Biden massively improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in theTwin Cities suburbs. With his resounding victories in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, Biden became the first Democrat to win over 70% of the vote in any Minnesota county since MinnesotanHubert Humphrey did inCarlton,Lake, andSt. Louis Counties (the core of the heavily unionizedIron Range region) in1968.

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupBidenTrumpNo
Answer
% of
Voters
Party
Democrat954N/A35
Republican891N/A34
Independent5540N/A31
Gender
Men4750346
Women5841154
Race
White5147287
Black772124
Latino603824
AsianN/AN/AN/A2
OtherN/AN/AN/A3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men4453345
White women5742155
Black men693016
Black womenN/AN/AN/A2
Latino men (of any race)N/AN/AN/A3
Latino women (of any race)633524
All other racesN/AN/AN/A3
Marital status
Married4950159
Not married5839341
Age
18–24 years old6629N/A8
25–29 years old6430N/A6
30–39 years old5443315
40–49 years old5247113
50–64 years old5148N/A29
65 and older4851130
Sexual orientation
LGBTN/AN/AN/A5
Heterosexual5147295
Education
College graduate6534N/A43
No college degree4553157
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates6235339
White no college degree4257N/A48
Non-white college graduates732534
Non-white no college degree643249
Income
Under $30,0005840216
$30,000–$49,9995539619
Over $200,0005842N/A9
Racism in the U.S is
The most important problem851419
An important problem6235365
Area Type
Urban6829144
Suburban4256234
Rural4652216
Source:CNN[85]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abPoll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose founder, Gabby Giffords, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcCandidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  2. ^abCandidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^Candidate withdrew during the first days of absentee voting.
  4. ^Candidate withdrew after in-person absentee voting started on January 17, 2020.
  5. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^abcdefKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^"Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  10. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^"Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  12. ^"Some other candidate" with 5%
  13. ^West (B) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ab"Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  16. ^"Another Third Party Candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  17. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%
  18. ^"Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A), "Other" and West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) with 0%; Kennedy (SWP) and La Riva (PSOL) with no voters
  19. ^"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  20. ^"Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%
  21. ^abOverlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  22. ^"Someone else/third party" with 2%
  23. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  24. ^Includes "Refused"
  25. ^"Some other candidate" with 4%
  26. ^"Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  27. ^Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. ^"Another Party Candidate"
  29. ^"Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  30. ^Including undecided voters who lean towards Trump
  31. ^Including undecided voters who lean towards Biden
  32. ^For Howard Schultz as independent
  33. ^abListed as "unsure/other/refused"
  34. ^abPoll sponsored by the Alliance for a Better Minnesota

References

[edit]
  1. ^State Canvassing Board Certifies Results of 2020 General Election The total number of voters was 3,292,997. That means 79.96 percent of eligible Minnesotans participated in the 2020 General Election. That is the highest percentage turnout since 1956, and the highest total number of voters ever.
  2. ^"Minnesota Election Results 2020".The New York Times. November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 15, 2020.
  3. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  5. ^"Trump got more votes in Minnesota in 2020 than he did in 2016. But Biden got way more than Clinton did".MinnPost. November 4, 2020. RetrievedNovember 11, 2020.
  6. ^"Despite attention, Trump gained little ground on Iron Range".The Star Tribune. November 4, 2020. RetrievedNovember 11, 2020.
  7. ^"Minnesota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  8. ^"State Canvassing Board Certificate - 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota State Canvassing Board. RetrievedMarch 19, 2020.
  9. ^"Minnesota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedMarch 19, 2020.
  10. ^Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019)."Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  11. ^Cillizza, Chris; Enten, Harry (September 13, 2018)."There's a new No. 1 among 2020 Democrats". CNN.
  12. ^Burke, Michael (November 25, 2018)."Klobuchar says she is still considering 2020 run".The Hill.
  13. ^Smith, Mitch; Lerer, Lisa (February 10, 2019)."Amy Klobuchar Enters 2020 Presidential Race".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  14. ^Kiersz, Andy; Hickey, Walt (March 4, 2020)."Joe Biden wins Minnesota primary".Business Insider.
  15. ^"State Canvassing Board Certificate 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary".Minnesota. Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. March 10, 2020.Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. RetrievedApril 2, 2020.
  16. ^"Delegate Tracker".Associated Press. August 17, 2020. RetrievedNovember 24, 2022.
  17. ^"We had ranked choice voting for our caucus, but a lot of people are interested in our first choice vote totals. This is how it broke down statewide".Facebook. Libertarian Party of Minnesota. February 26, 2020.
  18. ^abGalvan, Jill (February 26, 2020)."Libertarian 2020 Caucus Full Results by Jill Galvan".Libertarian Party of Minnesota. RetrievedFebruary 29, 2020.
  19. ^"We had ranked choice voting for our caucus, but a lot of people are interested in our first choice vote totals. This is how it broke down statewide". February 26, 2020 – via Facebook.com.
  20. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  21. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  22. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  23. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  24. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  26. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  27. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  28. ^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020. RetrievedJuly 13, 2020.
  29. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  30. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".CBS News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  31. ^Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020)."2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".NPR.org. RetrievedAugust 3, 2020.
  32. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  33. ^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on August 12, 2020. RetrievedAugust 14, 2020.
  34. ^270 to Win
  35. ^Real Clear Politics
  36. ^FiveThirtyEight
  37. ^abcdefSurveyMonkey/Axios
  38. ^Research Co.
  39. ^Data for Progress
  40. ^SwayableArchived November 27, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  41. ^abMorning Consult
  42. ^Public Policy Polling
  43. ^Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
  44. ^St. Cloud State University
  45. ^SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 NewsArchived October 31, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  46. ^Gravis Marketing
  47. ^Trafalgar Group
  48. ^Civiqs/Daily Kos
  49. ^SurveyUSA/KSTP
  50. ^Change Research/MinnPost
  51. ^David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America
  52. ^Morning Consult
  53. ^SurveyUSA/ABC6 NewsArchived October 11, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  54. ^Suffolk University
  55. ^Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
    /MPR News/KARE 11
  56. ^Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  57. ^ABC/Washington Post
  58. ^abcMorning Consult
  59. ^YouGov/CBS
  60. ^Siena College/NYT Upshot
  61. ^SurveyUSA
  62. ^Morning Consult
  63. ^PPP
  64. ^abHarper Polling/Jason Lewis
  65. ^abMorning Consult
  66. ^Trafalgar Group
  67. ^Emerson College
  68. ^David Binder Research
  69. ^abMorning Consult
  70. ^Trafalgar Group
  71. ^Public Policy Polling/GiffordsArchived July 31, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  72. ^FOX News
  73. ^Gravis Marketing
  74. ^Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
    /MPR News/KARE 11
  75. ^abMason-Dixon/StarTribune
  76. ^abMason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune
  77. ^ab"DFM Research"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on March 6, 2019. RetrievedApril 24, 2019.
  78. ^KFF/Cook Political Report
  79. ^Public Policy Polling
  80. ^Public Policy Polling
  81. ^"State of Minnesota Canvassing Report"(PDF). Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. November 25, 2020.Archived(PDF) from the original on November 25, 2020. RetrievedNovember 25, 2020.
  82. ^"Official List of Candidates".Minnesota Secretary of State. RetrievedSeptember 17, 2020.
  83. ^abcd"Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election".The Republican. March 17, 2021.Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  84. ^"Home - Election Results".
  85. ^"Minnesota 2020 President Exit Polls".www.cnn.com. RetrievedDecember 14, 2020.

Further reading

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External links

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