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The2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[3]Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump ofFlorida, and his running mate,Vice PresidentMike Pence ofIndiana against theDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden ofDelaware, and his running mate,SenatorKamala Harris ofCalifornia. Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]
In2016, Trump became the firstRepublican to carry Michigan since1988, whenGeorge H. W. Bush had scored a decisive nationwide win againstMichael Dukakis.[5] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on theauto bailout inmanufacturing towns outsideDetroit. Appearing withUnited Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalizeAmerican companies for movingmanufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[6] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likelyblue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.
Biden ultimately carried Michigan by 2.78%, a far closer margin than expected. Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came fromunion households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% ofBlack American voters.[7] Many voters were also concerned with theCOVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but not by enough to win. Michigan marked Biden's strongest performance in a state won by Trump in 2016, even voting to the left ofNevada which Trump lost in 2016.
Biden flipped the counties ofLeelanau,Kent, andSaginaw, becoming the first Democrat sinceWoodrow Wilson in1916 to win the presidency without winningBay orGogebic Counties, the first Democrat sinceHarry S. Truman in1948 to win withoutMonroe County, the first Democrat sinceJohn F. Kennedy in1960 to win withoutLake County and the first Democrat sinceJimmy Carter in1976 to win withoutCalhoun,Isabella,Manistee,Shiawassee, orVan Buren Counties.
WithOhio,Florida, andIowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since1960,1992, and2000 respectively, this election established Michigan,Wisconsin, andPennsylvania as the states with the longestbellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was2004, when all three voted for losing DemocratJohn Kerry.
Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.7% more Republican than the nation-at-large.
The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.
Incumbent United StatesPresidentDonald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governorMark Sanford ofSouth Carolina, former congressmanJoe Walsh ofIllinois, and former governorBill Weld ofMassachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump(incumbent) | 640,552 | 93.7% | 73 |
| Uncommitted | 32,743 | 4.8% | 0 |
| Bill Weld | 6,099 | 0.9% | 0 |
| Mark Sanford(withdrawn) | 4,258 | 0.6% | 0 |
| Joe Walsh(withdrawn) | 4,067 | 0.6% | 0 |
| Total | 683,431 | 100% | 73 |
Bernie Sanders and formerVice PresidentJoe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[12] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 840,360 | 52.93 | 73 |
| Bernie Sanders | 576,926 | 36.34 | 52 |
| Michael Bloomberg(withdrawn)[a] | 73,464 | 4.63 | |
| Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn)[a] | 26,148 | 1.65 | |
| Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[b] | 22,462 | 1.41 | |
| Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[b] | 11,018 | 0.69 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 9,461 | 0.60 | |
| Andrew Yang(withdrawn)[c] | 2,380 | 0.15 | |
| Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[b] | 1,732 | 0.11 | |
| Michael Bennet(withdrawn)[c] | 1,536 | 0.10 | |
| Cory Booker(withdrawn) | 840 | 0.05 | |
| Joe Sestak(withdrawn) | 757 | 0.05 | |
| Marianne Williamson(withdrawn) | 719 | 0.05 | |
| John Delaney(withdrawn)[d] | 464 | 0.03 | |
| Julian Castro(withdrawn) | 306 | 0.02 | |
| Uncommitted | 19,106 | 1.20 | |
| Total | 1,587,679 | 100% | 125 |
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Lean D(flip) |
| Inside Elections[14] | Lean D(flip) |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Lean D(flip) |
| Politico[16] | Lean D(flip) |
| RCP[17] | Tossup |
| Niskanen[18] | Likely D(flip) |
| CNN[19] | Lean D(flip) |
| The Economist[20] | Likely D(flip) |
| CBS News[21] | Lean D(flip) |
| 270towin[22] | Lean D(flip) |
| ABC News[23] | Lean D(flip) |
| NPR[24] | Lean D(flip) |
| NBC News[25] | Lean D(flip) |
| 538[26] | Solid D(flip) |
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [e] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[27] | October 22 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.9% | 44.4% | 5.7% | Biden +5.5 |
| Real Clear Politics[28] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 4.2% | Biden +4.2 |
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | until November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 51.2% | 43.2% | 5.6% | Biden +7.9 |
| Average | 50.4% | 44.5% | 5.1% | Biden +5.9 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[f] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 20 – Nov 2 | 4,549 (LV) | ± 2% | 46%[g] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Research Co.[31] | Oct 31 – Nov 1 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 50% | - | - | 2%[h] | 5% |
| Change Research/CNBC[32] | Oct 29 – Nov 1 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.01% | 44% | 51% | 3% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Swayable[33] | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 413 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 45% | 54% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[34] | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 654 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43%[i] | 53% | 1% | 0% | 2%[j] | – |
| 42%[k] | 52% | - | - | 3%[l] | 3% | ||||
| 45%[m] | 53% | - | - | 2%[n] | – | ||||
| Trafalgar Group[35] | Oct 30–31 | 1,033 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 48% | 46% | 2% | - | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[36] | Oct 30–31 | 686 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 6% | – |
| Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[37][A] | Oct 30–31 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 49% | 2% | - | – | 3% |
| Morning Consult[38] | Oct 22–31 | 1,736 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44.5% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Emerson College[39] | Oct 29–30 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45%[o] | 52% | - | - | 3%[p] | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[40][B] | Oct 29–30 | 745 (V) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 54% | 1% | 0% | – | 1% |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[41] | Oct 25–30 | 993 (LV) | – | 39% | 53% | - | - | 8%[q] | – |
| CNN/SSRS[42] | Oct 23–30 | 907 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 1% | 1%[r] | 2% |
| Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS[43] | Oct 29 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.43% | 45% | 52% | 1% | 1% | 0%[s] | 0% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[44] | Oct 27–29 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44%[i] | 51% | - | - | 3% | 2% |
| 42%[t] | 53% | - | - | 3% | 2% | ||||
| 45%[u] | 50% | - | - | 3% | 2% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45] | Oct 26–29 | 1,212 (LV) | – | 41% | 54% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| EPIC-MRA[46] | Oct 25–28 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 48% | - | - | 5%[v] | 6%[w] |
| Trafalgar Group[47] | Oct 25–28 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 2.93% | 49% | 47% | 2% | - | 1%[x] | 1% |
| Kiaer Research[48] | Oct 21–28 | 669 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 41% | 54% | - | - | 2%[y] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 7,541 (LV) | – | 45% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
| Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS[49] | Oct 25–27 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.56% | 42% | 52% | 3% | 0% | 0%[z] | 2% |
| Swayable[50] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 394 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 40% | 59% | 2% | 0% | – | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[51] | Oct 23–26 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 0%[aa] | 6%[w] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[52] | Oct 20–26 | 652 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43%[i] | 53% | 1% | 0% | 2%[j] | – |
| 43%[k] | 52% | - | - | 3%[l] | 3% | ||||
| Wick Surveys[53] | Oct 24–25 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News[54] | Oct 23–25 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ab] | 4% |
| ABC/Washington Post[55] | Oct 20–25 | 789 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 51% | 3% | 0% | 0%[ac] | 1% |
| Gravis Marketing[56] | Oct 24 | 679 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 55% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[57][C] | Oct 21–22 | 804 (V) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | 6% |
| YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[58] | Oct 13–21 | 681 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 52% | - | - | 5%[ad] | – |
| Citizen Data[59] | Oct 17–20 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News[60] | Oct 17–20 | 1,032 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 52% | 3% | 0% | 2%[ae] | 3% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[61] | Oct 14–20 | 686 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44%[i] | 52% | 2% | 0% | 2%[j] | – |
| 44%[k] | 51% | - | - | 3%[l] | 2% | ||||
| Morning Consult[38] | Oct 11–20 | 1,717 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/CNBC[62] | Oct 16–19 | 718 (LV)[af] | – | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| EPIC-MRA[63] | Oct 15–19 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | - | - | 5%[ag] | 8%[w] |
| Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS[64] | Oct 18 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 41% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 1%[x] | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[65][D] | Oct 15–18 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 47% | 45% | 3% | 2% | 2%[h] | 2% |
| Data For Progress[66] | Oct 15–18 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News[67] | Oct 11–18 | 2,851 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 45% | - | - | 2% | 3% |
| HarrisX/The Hill[68] | Oct 12–15 | 1,289 (LV) | – | 43% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group[69] | Oct 11–14 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 47% | 46% | 3% | 2% | 2%[h] | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[70] | Oct 10–13 | 972 (LV) | – | 42%[af] | 51% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[71] | Oct 8–13 | 800 (LV) | – | 42%[i] | 48% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 39%[t] | 51% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| 44%[u] | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| Ipsos/Reuters[72] | Oct 7–13 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44%[i] | 51% | 2% | 1% | 2%[ah] | – |
| 43%[k] | 51% | - | - | 3%[l] | 2% | ||||
| EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[73] | Oct 8–12 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | - | - | 4%[ai] | 9%[w] |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[74][E] | Oct 8–11 | 543 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 52% | - | - | 4%[aj] | 2% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[75] | Oct 6–11 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[ak] | 8%[w] |
| Morning Consult[76] | Oct 2–11 | 1,710 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[70] | Oct 9–10 | 827 (LV) | – | 41%[af] | 51% | 2% | 1% | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS[77] | Oct 6–9 | 1,190 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 52% | - | - | 2%[al] | 0% |
| Baldwin Wallace University[78] | Sep 30 – Oct 8 | 1,134 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 0%[am] | 4% |
| Emerson College[79] | Oct 6–7 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43%[o] | 54% | - | - | 2%[h] | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[80] | Oct 4–6 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1%[an] | 6% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[81][F] | Oct 3–6 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 44%[o] | 52% | - | - | 2% | 3% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[82] | Sep 29 – Oct 6 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 51% | - | - | 2%[ao] | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC[83] | Oct 2–4 | 676 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Glengariff Group/Detroit News[84] | Sep 30 – Oct 3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | - | - | 5%[ap] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[85][B] | Sep 30 – Oct 1 | 746 (V) | – | 44% | 50% | 2% | 1% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Sep 1–30 | 3,297 (LV) | – | 44% | 53% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[86][D] | Sep 26–28 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 1%[x] | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87] | Sep 23–26 | 785 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 0%[aq] | 6% |
| Marist College/NBC[88] | Sep 19–23 | 799 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 52% | - | - | 1% | 3% |
| ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare[89][G] | Sep 17–23 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group[90] | Sep 20–22 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.2%[ar] | 3.2% |
| Baldwin Wallace University[91] | Sep 9–22 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1%[as] | 6% |
| YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research Center/Wisconsin State Journal[92] | Sep 10–21 | 641 (LV) | – | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/CNBC[93] | Sep 18–20 | 568 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[94][H] | Sep 17–19 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D)[95] | Sep 14–19 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 42%[i] | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | 9% |
| 44%[at] | 50% | - | - | – | 6% | ||||
| MRG[96] | Sep 14–19 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 46% | - | - | 8%[au] | 5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[97] | Sep 11–16 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ao] | 4% |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[98][E] | Sep 11–15 | 517 (RV) | – | 42% | 53% | - | - | 3%[p] | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[99] | Sep 12–14 | 930 (LV) | ± 3.21% | 39% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 0%[aq] | 9% |
| EPIC-MRA[100] | Sep 10–15 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 40% | 48% | - | - | 5%[ag] | 7%[w] |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP[101] | Aug 28 – Sep 8 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 50% | - | - | 1%[av] | 5% |
| Morning Consult[102] | Aug 29 – Sep 7 | 1,455 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42%[aw] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Change Research/CNBC[103] | Sep 4–6 | 876 (LV) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | 7%[ax] | – |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[104][105] | Sep 2–3 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 44%[o] | 53% | - | - | 3%[ay] | – |
| Glengariff Group[106] | Sep 1–3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | - | - | 4%[az] | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[107] | Aug 30 – Sep 3 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 40% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 1%[an] | 7% |
| Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[108][F] | Aug 30 – Sep 2 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 44%[o] | 51% | 2% | 1% | 0%[ba] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Aug 1–31 | 2,962 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Morning Consult[109] | Aug 21–30 | 1,424 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[110][B] | Aug 28–29 | 897 (V) | – | 44% | 48% | 3% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC[111] | Aug 21–23 | 809 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group[112] | Aug 14–23 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 47% | 45% | 3% | - | 1%[bb] | 4% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[113] | Aug 16–19 | 812 (LV) | – | 38% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 1%[bc] | 9% |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[114][E] | Aug 13–17 | 631 (RV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | 3%[p] | 1% |
| Morning Consult[109] | Aug 7–16 | 1,212 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[115][D] | Aug 11–15 | 600 (LV) | – | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Change Research/CNBC[116] | Aug 7–9 | 413 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[117] | Jul 27 – Aug 6 | 761 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 47% | - | - | 5%[bd] | 6% |
| GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[118][I] | Jul 30 – Aug 4 | 1,245 (LV) | – | 43% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| David Binder Research[119] | Jul 30–31 | 200 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jul 1–31 | 3,083 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
| EPIC-MRA[120] | Jul 25–30 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 51% | 3% | - | - | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[121][B] | Jul 28–29 | 876 (V) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | 6%[be] | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC[122][123] | Jul 24–26 | 413 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
| Morning Consult[124] | Jul 17–26 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS[125] | Jul 21–24 | 1,156 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2%[bf] | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | Jul 19–24 | 811 (LV) | – | 37% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 2%[bg] | 10% |
| CNN/SSRS[127] | Jul 18–24 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 52% | - | - | 5%[bh] | 2% |
| Gravis Marketing[128][129] | Jul 22 | 754 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 51% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Fox News[130] | Jul 18–20 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 4%[bi] | 7% |
| Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[131][D] | Jul 13–16 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | - | - | – | 7% |
| Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[132][J] | Jul 11–16 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Change Research/CNBC[133] | Jul 10–12 | 824 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)[134][K] | Jul 9–10 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jun 8–30 | 1,238 (LV) | – | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Change Research/CNBC[135] | Jun 26–28 | 699 (LV)[af] | – | 43% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[136][B] | Jun 26–27 | 1,237 (V) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | 5%[bj] | 1% |
| Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[137] | Jun 17–20 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 56% | - | - | 2%[bk] | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group[138] | Jun 16–18 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 45% | 46% | - | - | 5%[ag] | 4% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[139] | Jun 8–17 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 47% | - | - | 8%[bl] | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[140] | Jun 14–16 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.41% | 36% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 2%[bm] | 12% |
| TargetPoint[141] | Jun 11–16 | 1,000 (A) | – | 33% | 49% | - | - | 4%[bn] | 14% |
| Change Research/CNBC[142] | Jun 12–14 | 353 (LV)[af] | – | 45% | 47% | - | - | 3%[bo] | – |
| TIPP/American Greatness PAC[143][A] | Jun 9–12 | 859 (LV) | – | 38% | 51% | - | - | 4%[bp] | 7% |
| Kiaer Research[144] | May 31 – Jun 7 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 35% | 50% | - | - | 6%[bq] | 8% |
| EPIC-MRA[145] | May 31 – Jun 4 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
| EPIC-MRA[146] | May 30 – Jun 3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 53% | - | - | – | 6%[w] |
| Change Research/CNBC[147] | May 29–31 | 620 (LV)[af] | – | 46% | 48% | - | - | 3% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[148][B] | May 29–30 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 44% | 50% | - | - | 4%[br] | 2% |
| Morning Consult[124] | May 17–26 | 1,325 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[149][L] | May 18–19 | 1,234 (V) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Change Research/Crooked Media[150] | May 11–17 | 3,070 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] | May 10–14 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 47% | - | - | 3%[bs] | 11% |
| Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[152] | May 1–5 | 600 (LV) | ± 3% | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[153][M] | Apr 28–29 | 1,270 (V) | – | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[154][N] | Apr 20–21 | 1,277 (RV) | – | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Fox News[155] | Apr 18–21 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 49% | - | - | 3% | 6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[156] | Apr 15–20 | 612 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
| Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[157] | Apr 9–11 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
| Hart Research/CAP Action[158][O] | Apr 6–8 | 303 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | - | - | 4% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[159] | Mar 31 – Apr 1 | 1,019 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | 7% |
| SPRY Strategies[160] | Mar 30 – Apr 1 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[161] | Mar 17–25 | 997 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 47% | - | - | – | 11% |
| Change Research[162] | Mar 21–23 | 510 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | - | - | 5% | |
| Marketing Resource Group[163] | Mar 16–20 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | - | - | 9%[bt] | 6% |
| Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[164] | Mar 12–16 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
| AtlasIntel[165] | Mar 7–9 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | - | - | 10% | – |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[166] | Mar 6–8 | 566 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | - | - | 6%[bu] | 7% |
| Monmouth University[167] | Mar 5–8 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 9% |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] | Mar 5–7 | 550 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 44% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov[169] | Feb 11–20 | 1,249 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University[170] | Feb 12–18 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | - | - | 6%[bv] | 3% |
| Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[171] | Feb 6–18 | 500 (RV) | – | 43% | 43% | - | - | – | 14% |
| EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[172][173] | Jan 9–12 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | 6% |
| Glengariff Group Inc.[174] | Jan 3–7 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[f] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[168] | Dec 3–5, 2019 | 551 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 8%[bw] | 5%[w] |
| Emerson College[175] | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 1,051 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 56% | – | – |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[176] | Oct 13–25, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – |
| Target Insyght[177] | Sep 24–26, 2019 | 800 (LV) | – | 35% | 54% | – | – |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] | Sep 7–9, 2019 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% | – |
| EPIC-MRA[179] | Aug 17–21, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
| Climate Nexus[180] | Jul 14–17, 2019 | 820 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 49% | 5%[bx] | 10% |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] | Jun 11–13, 2019 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 46% | 11% | – |
| EPIC-MRA[182] | Jun 8–12, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
| Glengariff Group[183] | May 28–30, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | – | 4% |
| WPA Intelligence[184] | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 42% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[185] | Mar 19–21, 2019 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – |
| Emerson College[186] | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
| Glengariff Group[187] | Jan 24–26, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 53% | – | 5% |
| EPIC-MRA[188] | Apr 28–30, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
| Zogby Analytics[189] | Sep 2017 | 800 (V) | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash
with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
|
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 2,804,040 | 50.62% | +3.35% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence | 2,649,852 | 47.84% | +0.34% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 60,381 | 1.09% | −2.50% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker | 13,718 | 0.25% | −0.82% | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr | 7,235 | 0.13% | N/A | |
| Natural Law | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson | 2,986 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Write-in | Brian T. Carroll | 963 | 0.02% | +0.01% | |
| Write-in | Jade Simmons | 89 | <0.01% | N/A | |
| Write-in | Tom Hoefling | 32 | <0.01% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 6 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 5,539,302 | 100.00% | |||
 | Parts of this article (those related to County results) need to beupdated. The reason given is:County results needs to be fixed, totals aren't accurate when summed. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(December 2024) |
| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alcona | 2,142 | 30.32% | 4,848 | 68.63% | 74 | 1.05% | −2,706 | −38.31% | 7,064 |
| Alger | 2,053 | 39.98% | 3,014 | 58.70% | 68 | 1.32% | −961 | −18.72% | 5,135 |
| Allegan | 24,449 | 36.39% | 41,392 | 61.60% | 1,354 | 2.01% | −16,943 | −25.21% | 67,195 |
| Alpena | 6,000 | 35.32% | 10,686 | 62.91% | 301 | 1.77% | −4,686 | −27.59% | 16,987 |
| Antrim | 5,960 | 37.32% | 9,748 | 61.03% | 264 | 1.65% | −3,788 | −23.71% | 15,972 |
| Arenac | 2,774 | 31.38% | 5,928 | 67.07% | 137 | 1.55% | −3,154 | −35.69% | 8,839 |
| Baraga | 1,478 | 36.52% | 2,512 | 62.07% | 57 | 1.41% | −1,034 | −25.55% | 4,047 |
| Barry | 11,797 | 32.80% | 23,471 | 65.27% | 693 | 1.93% | −11,674 | −32.47% | 35,961 |
| Bay | 26,151 | 43.34% | 33,125 | 54.90% | 1,057 | 1.76% | −6,974 | −11.56% | 60,333 |
| Benzie | 5,480 | 44.69% | 6,601 | 53.83% | 181 | 1.48% | −1,121 | −9.14% | 12,262 |
| Berrien | 37,438 | 45.34% | 43,519 | 52.71% | 1,608 | 1.95% | −6,081 | −7.37% | 82,565 |
| Branch | 6,159 | 29.94% | 14,064 | 68.36% | 350 | 1.70% | −7,905 | −38.42% | 20,573 |
| Calhoun | 28,877 | 43.57% | 36,221 | 54.65% | 1,183 | 1.78% | −5,344 | −11.08% | 66,281 |
| Cass | 9,130 | 34.79% | 16,699 | 63.63% | 413 | 1.58% | −7,569 | −28.84% | 26,242 |
| Charlevoix | 6,939 | 40.75% | 9,841 | 57.79% | 250 | 1.46% | −2,902 | −17.04% | 17,030 |
| Cheboygan | 5,437 | 34.22% | 10,186 | 64.10% | 267 | 1.68% | −4,749 | −29.88% | 15,890 |
| Chippewa | 6,648 | 37.62% | 10,681 | 60.44% | 342 | 1.94% | −4,033 | −22.82% | 17,671 |
| Clare | 5,199 | 31.91% | 10,861 | 66.65% | 235 | 1.44% | −5,662 | −34.74% | 16,295 |
| Clinton | 21,968 | 45.84% | 25,098 | 52.37% | 861 | 1.79% | −3,130 | −6.53% | 47,927 |
| Crawford | 2,672 | 33.99% | 5,087 | 64.71% | 102 | 1.30% | −2,415 | −30.72% | 7,861 |
| Delta | 7,606 | 35.93% | 13,207 | 62.39% | 354 | 1.68% | −5,601 | −26.46% | 21,167 |
| Dickinson | 4,744 | 32.46% | 9,617 | 65.80% | 254 | 1.74% | −4,873 | −33.34% | 14,615 |
| Eaton | 31,299 | 48.66% | 31,798 | 49.43% | 1,230 | 1.91% | −499 | −0.77% | 64,327 |
| Emmet | 9,662 | 43.50% | 12,135 | 54.64% | 412 | 1.86% | −2,473 | −11.14% | 22,209 |
| Genesee | 119,390 | 53.84% | 98,714 | 44.51% | 3,660 | 1.65% | 20,676 | 9.33% | 221,764 |
| Gladwin | 4,524 | 30.95% | 9,893 | 67.69% | 198 | 1.36% | −5,369 | −36.74% | 14,615 |
| Gogebic | 3,570 | 43.14% | 4,600 | 55.58% | 106 | 1.28% | −1,030 | −12.44% | 8,276 |
| Grand Traverse | 28,683 | 47.53% | 30,502 | 50.54% | 1,168 | 1.93% | −1,819 | −3.01% | 60,353 |
| Gratiot | 6,693 | 34.95% | 12,102 | 63.20% | 353 | 1.85% | −5,409 | −28.25% | 19,148 |
| Hillsdale | 5,883 | 25.25% | 17,037 | 73.11% | 382 | 1.64% | −11,154 | −47.86% | 23,302 |
| Houghton | 7,750 | 41.82% | 10,378 | 56.00% | 405 | 2.18% | −2,628 | −14.18% | 18,533 |
| Huron | 5,490 | 29.77% | 12,731 | 69.03% | 221 | 1.20% | −7,241 | −39.26% | 18,442 |
| Ingham | 94,212 | 65.18% | 47,639 | 32.96% | 2,699 | 1.86% | 46,573 | 32.22% | 144,550 |
| Ionia | 10,901 | 33.84% | 20,657 | 64.13% | 651 | 2.03% | −9,756 | −30.29% | 32,209 |
| Iosco | 5,373 | 34.92% | 9,759 | 63.42% | 255 | 1.66% | −4,386 | −28.50% | 15,387 |
| Iron | 2,493 | 36.69% | 4,216 | 62.05% | 86 | 1.26% | −1,723 | −25.36% | 6,795 |
| Isabella | 14,072 | 47.74% | 14,815 | 50.26% | 589 | 2.00% | −743 | −2.52% | 29,476 |
| Jackson | 31,995 | 39.49% | 47,372 | 58.47% | 1,647 | 2.04% | −15,377 | −18.98% | 81,014 |
| Kalamazoo | 83,686 | 58.22% | 56,823 | 39.53% | 3,237 | 2.25% | 26,863 | 18.69% | 143,746 |
| Kalkaska | 3,002 | 28.24% | 7,436 | 69.95% | 193 | 1.81% | −4,434 | −41.71% | 10,631 |
| Kent | 187,915 | 51.91% | 165,741 | 45.78% | 8,375 | 2.31% | 22,174 | 6.13% | 362,031 |
| Keweenaw | 672 | 43.16% | 862 | 55.36% | 23 | 1.48% | −190 | −12.20% | 1,557 |
| Lake | 2,288 | 36.13% | 3,946 | 62.32% | 98 | 1.55% | −1,658 | −26.19% | 6,332 |
| Lapeer | 16,367 | 31.04% | 35,482 | 67.29% | 883 | 1.67% | −19,115 | −36.25% | 52,732 |
| Leelanau | 8,795 | 52.04% | 7,916 | 46.84% | 189 | 1.12% | 879 | 5.20% | 16,900 |
| Lenawee | 20,918 | 39.13% | 31,541 | 59.01% | 993 | 1.86% | −10,623 | −19.88% | 53,452 |
| Livingston | 48,220 | 37.91% | 76,982 | 60.52% | 1,995 | 1.57% | −28,762 | −22.61% | 127,197 |
| Luce | 842 | 28.00% | 2,109 | 70.14% | 56 | 1.86% | −1,277 | −42.14% | 3,007 |
| Mackinac | 2,632 | 37.47% | 4,304 | 61.27% | 89 | 1.26% | −1,772 | −23.80% | 7,025 |
| Macomb | 223,952 | 45.31% | 263,863 | 53.39% | 6,441 | 1.30% | −39,911 | −8.08% | 494,256 |
| Manistee | 6,107 | 41.60% | 8,321 | 56.69% | 251 | 1.71% | −2,214 | −15.09% | 14,679 |
| Marquette | 20,465 | 54.50% | 16,286 | 43.37% | 799 | 2.13% | 4,179 | 11.13% | 37,550 |
| Mason | 6,802 | 39.36% | 10,207 | 59.06% | 274 | 1.58% | −3,405 | −19.70% | 17,283 |
| Mecosta | 7,375 | 34.98% | 13,267 | 62.93% | 439 | 2.09% | −5,892 | −27.95% | 21,081 |
| Menominee | 4,316 | 34.20% | 8,117 | 64.31% | 188 | 1.49% | −3,801 | −30.11% | 12,621 |
| Midland | 20,493 | 41.67% | 27,675 | 56.28% | 1,007 | 2.05% | −7,182 | −14.61% | 49,175 |
| Missaukee | 1,967 | 22.47% | 6,648 | 75.93% | 140 | 1.60% | −4,681 | −53.46% | 8,755 |
| Monroe | 32,980 | 37.78% | 52,722 | 60.39% | 1,597 | 1.83% | −19,742 | −22.61% | 87,299 |
| Montcalm | 9,703 | 30.19% | 21,815 | 67.88% | 620 | 1.93% | −12,112 | −37.69% | 32,138 |
| Montmorency | 1,628 | 27.77% | 4,171 | 71.14% | 64 | 1.09% | −2,543 | −43.37% | 5,863 |
| Muskegon | 45,643 | 49.37% | 45,133 | 48.82% | 1,668 | 1.81% | 510 | 0.55% | 92,444 |
| Newaygo | 7,873 | 28.95% | 18,857 | 69.33% | 467 | 1.72% | −10,984 | −40.38% | 27,197 |
| Oakland | 434,148 | 56.24% | 325,971 | 42.22% | 11,872 | 1.54% | 108,177 | 14.02% | 771,991 |
| Oceana | 4,944 | 35.11% | 8,892 | 63.15% | 244 | 1.74% | −3,948 | −28.04% | 14,080 |
| Ogemaw | 3,475 | 29.15% | 8,253 | 69.23% | 193 | 1.62% | −4,778 | −40.08% | 11,921 |
| Ontonagon | 1,391 | 36.51% | 2,358 | 61.89% | 61 | 1.60% | −967 | −25.38% | 3,810 |
| Osceola | 3,214 | 26.05% | 8,928 | 72.35% | 198 | 1.60% | −5,714 | −46.30% | 12,340 |
| Oscoda | 1,342 | 27.50% | 3,466 | 71.02% | 72 | 1.48% | −2,124 | −43.52% | 4,880 |
| Otsego | 4,743 | 32.10% | 9,779 | 66.19% | 253 | 1.71% | −5,036 | −34.09% | 14,775 |
| Ottawa | 64,705 | 38.35% | 100,913 | 59.81% | 3,095 | 1.84% | −36,208 | −21.46% | 168,713 |
| Presque Isle | 2,911 | 34.84% | 5,342 | 63.94% | 102 | 1.22% | −2,431 | −29.10% | 8,355 |
| Roscommon | 5,166 | 34.36% | 9,670 | 64.32% | 198 | 1.32% | −4,504 | −29.96% | 15,034 |
| Saginaw | 51,088 | 49.37% | 50,785 | 49.08% | 1,610 | 1.55% | 303 | 0.29% | 103,483 |
| St. Clair | 31,363 | 34.02% | 59,185 | 64.19% | 1,654 | 1.79% | −27,822 | −30.17% | 92,202 |
| St. Joseph | 9,262 | 33.10% | 18,127 | 64.78% | 592 | 2.12% | −8,865 | −31.68% | 27,981 |
| Sanilac | 5,966 | 26.58% | 16,194 | 72.15% | 286 | 1.27% | −10,228 | −45.57% | 22,446 |
| Schoolcraft | 1,589 | 33.49% | 3,090 | 65.12% | 66 | 1.39% | −1,501 | −31.63% | 4,745 |
| Shiawassee | 15,347 | 39.05% | 23,149 | 58.90% | 805 | 2.05% | −7,802 | −19.85% | 39,301 |
| Tuscola | 8,712 | 29.55% | 20,297 | 68.85% | 470 | 1.60% | −11,585 | −39.30% | 29,479 |
| Van Buren | 16,803 | 42.92% | 21,591 | 55.16% | 752 | 1.92% | −4,788 | −12.24% | 39,146 |
| Washtenaw | 157,136 | 72.44% | 56,241 | 25.93% | 3,554 | 1.63% | 100,895 | 46.51% | 216,931 |
| Wayne | 597,170 | 68.32% | 264,553 | 30.27% | 12,295 | 1.41% | 332,617 | 38.05% | 874,018 |
| Wexford | 5,838 | 31.92% | 12,102 | 66.16% | 352 | 1.92% | −6,264 | −34.24% | 18,292 |
| Totals | 2,804,045 | 50.55% | 2,649,864 | 47.77% | 93,277 | 1.68% | 154,181 | 2.78% | 5,547,186 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold
|
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Despite losing the state, Trump won eight out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan, including one that elected a Democrat.[201]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58% | 41% | Jack Bergman |
| 2nd | 55% | 43% | Bill Huizenga |
| 3rd | 51% | 47% | Justin Amash |
| Peter Meijer | |||
| 4th | 61% | 37% | John Moolenaar |
| 5th | 47% | 51% | Dan Kildee |
| 6th | 51% | 47% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 57% | 42% | Tim Walberg |
| 8th | 50% | 49% | Elissa Slotkin |
| 9th | 43% | 56% | Andy Levin |
| 10th | 64% | 34% | Paul Mitchell |
| Lisa McClain | |||
| 11th | 47% | 52% | Haley Stevens |
| 12th | 34% | 64% | Debbie Dingell |
| 13th | 20% | 79% | Rashida Tlaib |
| 14th | 20% | 80% | Brenda Lawrence |
Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasted a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of theblue wall sinceBill Clinton won the state in1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's unexpected collapse in the northern industrial states.[202][203]
Biden would carry the state by just under 2.8%; while Biden ran well behindBarack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was nearly in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse thanJohn Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, andAl Gore's 5.1% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[204]
While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a somewhat comfortable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example,Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[204] Trump heldMacomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[205]
Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance inWayne County, home ofDetroit.[205] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance inGenesee County,[206] and flipped backSaginaw County.[207]
Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with EvangelicalMichiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[208] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.[209][210]
Jeremy W. Peters ofThe New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[211]African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing toJoe Biden winning that state.[212] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland andWashtenaw counties.[213]
InOakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump includedBloomfield Township,Farmington Hills,Madison Heights,Novi,Rochester Hills,Southfield andTroy.[214]
The number of unbalanced votes inWayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[215] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, withNorm Shinkle abstaining.[216]
| 2020 presidential election in Michigan by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[217][218] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 50.62 | 47.84 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 89 | 10 | 25 |
| Moderates | 62 | 36 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 12 | 88 | 37 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 97 | 3 | 38 |
| Republicans | 6 | 94 | 38 |
| Independents | 51 | 45 | 23 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 44 | 54 | 46 |
| Women | 57 | 43 | 54 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 44 | 55 | 81 |
| Black | 92 | 7 | 12 |
| Latino | 55 | 44 | 3 |
| Asian | – | – | 1 |
| Other | – | – | 4 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 62 | 36 | 7 |
| 25–29 years old | 59 | 37 | 4 |
| 30–39 years old | 48 | 50 | 14 |
| 40–49 years old | 49 | 49 | 15 |
| 50–64 years old | 51 | 49 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 51 | 49 | 30 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 6 |
| Not LGBT | 53 | 47 | 94 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 49 | 50 | 20 |
| Somecollege education | 49 | 50 | 27 |
| Associate degree | 42 | 57 | 18 |
| Bachelor's degree | 55 | 44 | 20 |
| Postgraduate degree | 63 | 37 | 16 |
| Income | |||
| Under $30,000 | 61 | 39 | 16 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 60 | 39 | 20 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 55 | 44 | 34 |
| Over $100,000 | 47 | 51 | 30 |
| Union households | |||
| Yes | 62 | 37 | 21 |
| No | 48 | 51 | 79 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Racial inequality | 93 | 5 | 16 |
| Coronavirus | 94 | 5 | 18 |
| Economy | 14 | 86 | 39 |
| Crime and safety | 22 | 77 | 9 |
| Health care | 85 | 12 | 10 |
| Region | |||
| Wayne County | 69 | 30 | 16 |
| Southeast | 58 | 41 | 27 |
| East central | 42 | 57 | 24 |
| Southwest | 46 | 53 | 19 |
| North central/Upper Peninsula | 40 | 59 | 14 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 65 | 35 | 21 |
| Suburban | 48 | 51 | 58 |
| Rural | 45 | 54 | 21 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 18 | 81 | 41 |
| Worse than four years ago | 90 | 9 | 15 |
| About the same | 72 | 27 | 43 |
On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[219] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why, when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[220]
On election night inAntrim County, human error miscounted an unofficial tally of Presidential votes. Next day, the County Clerk pulled the unofficial tally offline. The error was caused by using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, which mismatched results.[221] The Republican Clerk admitted that she made a mistake in some precincts, which mismatched precinct results.[222] The very next day, she corrected her mistake, tabulated all ballots again and ran a final report to certifyTrump's overwhelming win.[221] Nonetheless, this error and arelated lawsuit fueled multiple election conspiracy theories.[223]
Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to theMichigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history and was not authorized under Michigan law, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of theMichigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[224]
In October 2020, the Michigan Election Security Advisory Commission published recommendations for two types of post-election audits: procedural and tabulation audits.[225] The first statewiderisk-limiting audit included a hand tally of the sampled ballots, which confirmed that Biden received more votes than Trump and the share of votes each candidate received was within a fraction of a percentage point of the certified results.[226] Another tabulation audit confirmed the election results by examining ballots cast, voting machines and the election procedures. The series of post-election audits was the most comprehensive in the state's history.[227]
In Antrim County, the Clerk's Office was joined by a bipartisan team of clerks to perform a hand recount of every single ballot. Their recount proved that thecounty's election results had been accurately certified.[222] The Republican Chairman concluded in a letter prefacing his state Senate Oversight Committee's election report: "all compelling theories that sprang forth from the rumors surrounding Antrim County are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further."[228]
After eight months investigating the state's 2020 general election process, he and his Republican Committee members all voted for the Senate to adopt their report. Their report concluded, "The Committee found no evidence of widespread or systemic fraud in Michigan's prosecution of the 2020 election."[228]
Due to voters approvingno-reason-required absentee voting in 2018 and the COVID pandemic, there was a record number of absentee voters. Michigan law at that time did not allow for the tabulating of absentee ballots until after the polling place ballots were counted. That led to days before Biden was declared the winner.[229] In 2022, voters approved aballot proposal making it easier to vote. In the aftermath, Michigan lawmakers made changes in election laws which, among other things, allowed cities and townships to begin tabulating absentee ballots before Election Day.[230]
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