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2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout76%[1]Increase
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote110
Popular vote2,382,2021,167,202
Percentage65.60%32.14%

County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Main article:2020 United States presidential election
Elections in
Massachusetts
U.S. President
Presidential Primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Governor
Attorney General
Secretary of the Commonwealth
Treasurer and Receiver-General
State Auditor
State Senate
State House
Governor's Council
Ballot measures
flagMassachusetts portal

The2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[2]Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Prior to the election, Massachusetts was widely considered a state Biden would win or a safe blue state. On election day, Biden easily carried Massachusetts with a 33-point margin, the largest margin whereby any nominee had carried the state sinceLyndon B. Johnson's1964 landslide. Massachusetts was one of three states where Biden won every county, the other two beingRhode Island andHawaii.

Massachusetts voted 29% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

[edit]

Presidential preference primaries were scheduled for March 3, 2020, for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

Bernie Sanders andJoe Biden were among the declared major Democratic candidates.Elizabeth Warren, one of the two current senators from Massachusetts, formed an exploratory committee in December 2018 and declared her intention to run in February 2019.[4][5]

This section is an excerpt from2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary § MAresults.[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary[6]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[7]
Joe Biden473,86133.4137
Bernie Sanders376,99026.5830
Elizabeth Warren303,86421.4324
Michael Bloomberg166,20011.72
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[a]38,4002.71
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[a]17,2971.22
Tulsi Gabbard10,5480.74
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)6,9230.49
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[a]6,7620.48
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)2,7080.19
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)1,2570.09
John Delaney(withdrawn)6750.05
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)6170.04
Cory Booker(withdrawn)4260.03
Julian Castro(withdrawn)3050.02
All Others1,9410.14
No Preference5,3450.38
Blank ballots4,0610.29
Total1,418,180100%91

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary

Massachusetts governorCharlie Baker declined to run, as did Utah Senator and former Massachusetts governorMitt Romney.[8][9][10][11]

This section is an excerpt from2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary § MAresults.[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary[12]
CandidatePopular voteDelegates
CountPercentage
Donald Trump (incumbent)239,11586.3241
Bill Weld25,4259.180
Joe Walsh(withdrawn)3,0081.090
Rocky De La Fuente6750.240
No Preference4,3851.580
Blank ballots2,2420.810
All Others2,1520.780
Total277,002100%41

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Massachusetts Libertarian presidential primary

March 3, 20202024 →
← CA
NC →
 
CandidateWrite-in
(uncounted)
No preferenceVermin Supreme
Home stateVariousN/AMassachusetts
Popular vote958804398
Percentage25.0%21.0%10.4%

 
CandidateJacob HornbergerDan BehrmanKim Ruff
(withdrawn)
Home stateVirginiaNevadaArizona
Popular vote369294224
Percentage9.6%7.7%5.8%

Election results by county[b]
  No preference
  Jacob Hornberger

A number of Libertarian candidates declared for the race, including New Hampshire State RepresentativeMax Abramson,Adam Kokesh,Vermin Supreme and former Libertarian National Committee vice-chair Arvin Vohra.[13][14][15]

Massachusetts Libertarian presidential primary, March 3, 2020[16]
CandidateVotesPercentage
All others95825.0%
No preference80421.0%
Vermin Supreme39910.4%
Jacob Hornberger3699.6%
Dan Behrman2947.7%
Kim Ruff (withdrawn)2245.8%
Arvin Vohra1513.9%
Ken Armstrong1453.8%
Jo Jorgensen1413.7%
Sam Robb1273.3%
Adam Kokesh1253.3%
Max Abramson982.6%
Total3,835100%

Green primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Green Party presidential primaries
Massachusetts Green Party presidential primary, March 3, 2020[17]
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
Dario Hunter22416.92
Howie Hawkins21716.41
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza-Curry14110.61
Kent Mesplay554.10
David Rolde40.30
Write-In36927.80
No Preference31623.87
Total1326100.00%11

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[18]Safe DSeptember 10, 2020
Inside Elections[19]Safe DSeptember 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20]Safe DJuly 14, 2020
Politico[21]Safe DSeptember 8, 2020
RCP[22]Safe DAugust 3, 2020
Niskanen[23]Safe DJuly 26, 2020
CNN[24]Safe DAugust 3, 2020
The Economist[25]Safe DSeptember 2, 2020
270towin[26]Safe DAugust 2, 2020
ABC News[27]Safe DJuly 31, 2020
NBC News[28]Safe DAugust 6, 2020
538[29]Safe DSeptember 9, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
‹ Thetemplate below (Graph:Chart) is being considered for deletion. Seetemplates for discussion to help reach a consensus. ›
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win[30]October 17 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202065.0%28.7%6.3%Biden +36.3
RealClearPolitics[31]July 31 – August 27, 2020September 15, 202064.0%28.3%7.7%Biden +35.7
FiveThirtyEight[32]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202064.6%28.9%6.5%Biden +35.8
Average64.5%28.6%6.8%Biden +35.9

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
MassInc[33]Oct 23–30, 2020929 (LV)28%62%--8%[e]2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Oct 1–28, 20205,848 (LV)28%70%--
YouGov/UMass Amherst[35]Oct 14–21, 2020713 (LV)29%64%--3%[f]3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Sep 1–30, 20202,655 (LV)32%66%--2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Aug 1–31, 20202,286 (LV)29%69%--2%
Emerson College/WHDH[36]Aug 25–27, 2020763 (LV)± 3.5%31%69%--
MassINC/WBUR[37]Aug 6–9, 2020501 (LV)± 4.4%27%63%--5%[g]4%
UMass/YouGov[38]Jul 31 – Aug 7, 2020500 (RV)± 5.9%28%61%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Jul 1–31, 20202,509 (LV)26%72%--2%
MassINC[39]Jul 17–20, 2020797 (RV)23%55%--10%[h]12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Jun 8–30, 20201,091 (LV)27%71%--2%
Emerson College/7 News[40]May 4–5, 2020740 (RV)± 3.5%33%[i]67%--
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[41]Apr 27 – May 1, 20201,000 (RV)± 3.6%30%58%--7%[j]4%
Emerson College[42]Apr 4–7, 2019761 (RV)± 3.5%31%69%--
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Emerson College[42]Apr 4–7, 2019761 (RV)± 3.5%36%64%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Emerson College[42]Apr 4–7, 2019761 (RV)± 3.5%37%63%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts[43]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
2,382,20265.60+4.62
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
1,167,20232.14–0.67
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
47,0131.29–2.93
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker
18,6580.51–0.95
Write-in16,3270.45–1.07
Total votes3,631,402100%+1.49
Democraticwin
Treemap of the 2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts.
Biden:
     50-60%     60-70%
     70-80%     80-90%

By county

[edit]
CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Barnstable91,99461.20%55,31136.79%3,0202.01%36,68324.41%150,325
Berkshire51,70572.44%18,06425.31%1,6062.25%33,64147.13%71,375
Bristol153,37754.92%119,87242.92%6,0302.16%33,50512.00%279,279
Dukes9,91477.47%2,63120.56%2531.97%7,28356.91%12,798
Essex267,19863.44%144,83734.39%9,1752.17%122,36129.05%421,210
Franklin30,03070.73%11,20126.38%1,2272.89%18,82944.35%42,458
Hampden125,94857.73%87,31840.02%4,9112.25%38,63017.71%218,177
Hampshire63,36272.12%22,28125.36%2,2112.52%41,08146.76%87,854
Middlesex617,19671.47%226,95626.28%19,4252.25%390,24045.19%863,577
Nantucket5,24171.74%1,91426.20%1512.06%3,32745.54%7,306
Norfolk273,31267.03%125,29430.73%9,1452.24%148,01836.30%407,751
Plymouth173,63057.53%121,22740.17%6,9592.30%52,40317.36%301,816
Suffolk270,52280.64%58,61317.47%6,3271.89%211,90963.17%335,462
Worcester248,77357.58%171,68339.74%11,5582.68%77,09017.84%432,014
Totals2,382,20265.60%1,167,20232.14%81,9982.26%1,215,00033.46%3,631,402
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won all nine congressional districts, breaking 60% of the vote in eight of them.[44]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st37%61%Richard Neal
2nd36%61%Jim McGovern
3rd34%63%Lori Trahan
4th34%64%Joe Kennedy III
Jake Auchincloss
5th24%74%Katherine Clark
6th35%62%Seth Moulton
7th13%85%Ayanna Pressley
8th32%66%Stephen Lynch
9th40%58%Bill Keating

Towns that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

[edit]

Massachusetts has been a Democratic-leaning state since1928, and a Democratic stronghold since1960, and has maintained extremely large Democratic margins since1996. This remained true in 2020, with Massachusetts being one of six states (along withHawaii,Vermont,Maryland,California, andNew York) to give Biden over 60% of the vote. Massachusetts isethnically diverse, highlyurbanized,highly educated, and among the leastreligious states.

Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Biden's strength came from winning 74% of college-educated voters, which carries particular weight in Massachusetts, as the state contains the highest proportion of graduates of any state in the country.[45] Trump's slip among suburban white voters led Biden to carry almost every municipality in theGreater Boston area by at least 60% or more, while Trump carried only several towns on theSouth Shore and in Central Massachusetts. Biden won 298 of the 351 municipalities.[46] Biden swept all demographic groups, garnering 63% of whites, 84% of Latinos, 58% ofCatholics, 56% ofProtestants, and 86% ofJewish voters. Additionally, Biden won 52% of whites without a college degree within the state, one of Trump's strongest demographics elsewhere in the country.[45] While Biden overwhelmingly carriedLatino voters in the state, Trump improved on his 2016 performance in heavily Hispanic cities such asLawrence,Chelsea, andHolyoke.[47] Nevertheless, Trump had the worst vote share inMassachusetts of any Republican nominee sinceBob Dole in1996, and slightly underperformedGeorge W. Bush's 32.5% vote share in2000.

Massachusetts was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others beingCalifornia,Maryland,New York andIllinois.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcCandidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
  2. ^Excludingwrite-ins, which were not tallied.
  3. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^"Some other candidate" with 5%; "Refused" with 3%; would not vote with no voters
  6. ^"Other" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  7. ^"Another candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 3%
  8. ^"Some other candidate" with 7%; would not vote with 3%
  9. ^Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^"Another candidate" with 7%

References

[edit]
  1. ^"MA SOC Voter Turnout Statistics".
  2. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  3. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019)."Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  5. ^Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018)."Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020".The New York Times.
  6. ^"2020 President Democratic Primary".Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. RetrievedApril 9, 2020.
  7. ^"2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". RetrievedJuly 4, 2020.
  8. ^Markos, Mary (November 8, 2018)."Charlie Baker 'absolutely' staying put".Boston Herald. RetrievedNovember 9, 2018.
  9. ^Burr, Thomas (February 16, 2018)."Mitt Romney: On school shootings, immigration and when he'll challenge Trump. A Q&A with Utah's new Senate candidate".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedFebruary 18, 2018.
  10. ^Heilbrunn, Jacob (January 2, 2018)."Donald Trump's Biggest Fear: A Romney 2020 Primary Challenge".The National Interest. RetrievedJanuary 2, 2018.
  11. ^Keller, Jon (January 2, 2018)."Keller @ Large: Could Romney Be Trump's Worst Nightmare?".WBZ-TV. RetrievedJanuary 2, 2018.
  12. ^"2020 President Republican Primary".Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. RetrievedApril 9, 2020.
  13. ^Sullivan, Max (July 28, 2019)."Seabrook's Abramson seeks Libertarian presidential nomination".The Portsmouth Herald. Archived fromthe original on December 29, 2020. RetrievedDecember 22, 2019.
  14. ^Limitone, Julia (June 18, 2019)."Presidential candidate vows to abolish federal government on day 1, then resign".Fox Business. RetrievedDecember 22, 2019.
  15. ^Clark, Bob (November 12, 2019)."Libertarians Offer Voters Nothing New".Olean Times Herald. RetrievedDecember 22, 2019.
  16. ^"Massachusetts Election Statistics: 2020 Libertarian Primary".Massachusetts Secretary of State. March 3, 2020.
  17. ^https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/135904/[permanent dead link]
  18. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  19. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  20. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  21. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  23. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  24. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  25. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  26. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  27. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".CBS News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  28. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  29. ^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on August 12, 2020. RetrievedAugust 14, 2020.
  30. ^270 to Win
  31. ^RealClearPolitics
  32. ^FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^MassInc
  34. ^abcdeSurveyMonkey/Axios
  35. ^YouGov/UMass Amherst
  36. ^Emerson College/WHDH
  37. ^MassINC/WBUR
  38. ^UMass/YouGov
  39. ^MassINC
  40. ^Emerson College/7 News
  41. ^University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov
  42. ^abcEmerson CollegeArchived April 20, 2019, at theWayback Machine
  43. ^"2020 President General Election".Massachusetts Secretary of State. RetrievedNovember 24, 2020.
  44. ^"Dra 2020".
  45. ^ab"Massachusetts Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  46. ^"Map: See How Your Town Or City Voted In The 2020 Election".www.wbur.org. November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 15, 2020.
  47. ^"One place Trump gained in Mass.: Heavily Latino cities". November 6, 2020.

Further reading

[edit]

External links

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