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2020 United States presidential election in Maine

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2020 United States presidential election.

2020 United States presidential election in Maine

← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout78% (Increase5.47pp)
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote31
First round435,072360,737
Percentage53.09%44.02%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Maine
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The2020 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[1]Maine voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] Unlike all other states exceptNebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district.

On election day, Biden carried Maine at-large by nine percentage points and the1st congressional district by 23 percentage points, garnering three electoral votes. However, the rural2nd district backed Trump by more than seven percentage points, giving him one electoral vote.[3] This was the same result as2016, and as such marked only the second time since1828 that Maine split its electoral votes. Also this is the first time since 1828 where the candidate who win of election and the national popular at the same time didn't receive all Maine electoral votes. Finally, it's also the first election where ME-2 didn't vote for the winner of election and the winner of the national popular at the same time while ME-1 and Maine at large did the opposite.

Maine became the first state to useranked-choice voting for a presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot.[4] Majorities were reached in the first round of voting statewide and in each congressional district, so ranked-choice voting tabulation was not required.[5]

Biden performed strongly withcollege-educated[6] voters to win Maine.[7] Maine weighed in for this election as 5% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were held onSuper Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Maine Republican presidential primary

Incumbent PresidentDonald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the2020 Republican National Convention.[8]

2020 Maine Republican presidential primary[9]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[10]
Donald Trump(incumbent)95,36083.8522
Blank ballots18,36816.150
Total113,728100%22

Democratic primary

[edit]

Joe Biden won the state primary. OpponentBernie Sanders won the Maine caucus in2016.

This section is an excerpt from2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[11]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[12]
Joe Biden68,72933.3711
Bernie Sanders66,82632.459
Elizabeth Warren32,05515.574
Michael Bloomberg24,29411.80
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[a]4,3642.12
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[a]2,8261.37
Tulsi Gabbard1,8150.88
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)[b]6960.34
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[a]3130.15
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)[b]2180.11
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)2010.10
Cory Booker(withdrawn)1830.09
Blank ballots3,4171.66
Total205,937100%24

Libertarian nominee

[edit]
  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

Green nominee

[edit]

Alliance nominee

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Ballot access

[edit]

The Libertarian Party was recognized by Maine as an official party in June 2016 but lost that status in December 2018. To qualify for ballot access, Jorgensen was required to submit 4,000 petition signatures to the state by August 3. Jorgensen sued the state for a reduction of the signature requirement, citing an increase in the difficulty of petitioning caused by theCOVID-19 pandemic.[13] Jorgensen was successful in appearing on the ballot.

Final predictions

[edit]
SourceRanking (statewide)Ranking (1st)Ranking (2nd)
The Cook Political Report[14]Likely DSolid DTossup
Inside Elections[15]Solid DSolid DTossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]Likely DSafe DLean R
Politico[17]Likely DSolid DTossup
RCP[18]Lean DLikely DTossup
Niskanen[19]Safe DSafe DLikely R
CNN[20]Solid DSolid DTossup
The Economist[21]Safe DNot givenNot given
CBS News[22]Likely DLikely DTossup
270towin[23]Likely DSafe DTossup
ABC News[24]Solid DSolid DTossup
NPR[25]Likely DLikely DTossup
NBC News[26]Likely DSolid DTossup
538[27]Likely DSolid DTossup

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary (statewide)

%support01020304050606/19/20198/2/20209/20/202010/27/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedStatewide opinion polling for the 2020 Unite...
Viewsource data.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win[28]October 6 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202051.8%40.2%8.0%Biden +11.6
FiveThirtyEight[29]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.3%40.3%6.4%Biden +13.0
Average53.1%40.3%7.2%Biden +12.3

Statewide polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
Change Research[30]Oct 29 – Nov 2, 20201,024 (LV)± 3.5%40%52%4%2%1%[e]1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,274 (LV)± 4%42%[f]56%
Emerson College[32]Oct 29–31, 2020611 (LV)± 3.9%43%[g]54%2%[h]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Oct 1–28, 20201,995 (LV)43%56%
SurveyUSA/FairVote[33]Oct 23–27, 20201,007 (LV)± 3.7%40%[i]53%2%2%1%[j]2%
42%[k]55%1%[l]2%
Colby College[34]Oct 21–25, 2020879 (LV)± 3.3%38%51%4%[m]8%
Pan Atlantic Research[35]Oct 2–6, 2020600 (LV)± 4.5%40%50%6%[n]4%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[36]Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020466 (LV)± 4.4%40%[i]51%3%1%2%[o]3%
40%[p]52%5%[q]3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Sep 1–30, 2020729 (LV)38%60%2%
Data for Progress (D)[37]Sep 23–28, 2020718 (LV)± 3.7%39%[i]53%2%1%5%
41%[r]55%4%
Colby College[38]Sep 17–23, 2020847 (LV)± 3.4%39%50%4%[s]6%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe[39]Sep 17–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%39%[i]51%1%0%1%[t]7%
39%[k]51%2%[u]8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[40]Sep 11–16, 2020663 (LV)± 5.1%38%[v]55%0%0%1%[w]6%[x]
Quinnipiac University[41]Sep 10–14, 20201,183 (LV)± 2.9%38%59%0%[y]3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[42]Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%40%54%1%[z]5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Aug 1–31, 2020502 (LV)37%61%1%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[43]Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020453 (LV)38%45%11%[aa]6%
Quinnipiac University[44]Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020805 (RV)± 3.7%37%52%6%[ab]4%
RMG Research[45]Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%39%50%7%[ac]4%
Data for Progress[46]Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020866 (LV)42%[i]49%1%1%7%
43%[ad]53%4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Jul 1–31, 2020733 (LV)41%57%1%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[47][A]Jul 23–24, 2020962 (V)42%53%5%
Colby College/SocialSphere[48]Jul 18–24, 2020888 (RV)± 3.9%38%50%5%[ae]7%
Public Policy Polling[49]Jul 2–3, 20201,022 (V)± 3.1%42%53%5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Jun 8–30, 2020202 (LV)46%51%3%
Public Policy Polling[50]Mar 2–3, 2020872 (V)± 3.3%42%52%6%
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019939 (LV)± 3.2%42%54%4%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[52]Jul 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%50%5%
Gravis Marketing[53]Jun 24, 2019767 (RV)± 3.5%46%54%

Graphical summary (Maine's 1st congressional district)

[edit]
%support01020304050607010/13/20199/14/202010/25/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.


Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win[28]October 6 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202057.8%35.0%7.2%Biden +22.8
Real Clear Politics[54]September 17 – October 6, 2020October 30, 202056.7%34.3%9.0%Biden +22.4

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
Change Research[30]Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020549 (LV)35%56%4%3%
Emerson College[32]Oct 29–31, 2020310 (LV)39%58%3%[af]1%
SurveyUSA/FairVote[33]Oct 23–27, 2020498 (LV)35%[i]59%2%2%1%[j]2%
36%[k]61%1%[l]2%
Colby College[34]Oct 21–25, 2020426 (LV)34%56%4%[m]7%
Pan Atlantic Research[35]Oct 2–6, 2020300 (LV)± 6.4%37%54%7%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[36]Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020232 (LV)30%62%3%1%2%[ag]3%
Colby College[38]Sep 17–23, 2020416 (LV)36%54%5%[ah]5%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe[39]Sep 17–20, 2020267 (LV)33%[i]54%2%0%1%[t]9%
34%[k]55%0%0%2%[ai]9%
Quinnipiac University[41]Sep 10–14, 2020707 (LV)32%64%1%[aj]3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[42]Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020433 (LV)35%58%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[55]Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020250 (LV)33%49%11%[ak]6%
Quinnipiac University[56]Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020392 (LV)[al]30%61%6%[am]3%
Colby College/SocialSphere[38]Jul 18–24, 2020425 (LV)35%55%6%[an]5%
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019478 (LV)38%58%3%

Graphical summary (Maine's 2nd congressional district)

[edit]
%support010203040506010/13/20198/28/20209/23/202010/31/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.


Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win[28]October 6 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202046.4%45.2%8.4%Biden +1.2
Real Clear Politics[57]September 17 – October 6, 2020October 27, 202044.7%45.0%10.3%Trump +0.3

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
Change Research[30]Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020475 (LV)± 4.6%46%[i]47%4%1%0%[ao]1%
50%[ap]50%
Emerson College[32]Oct 29–31, 2020301 (LV)47%50%3%[af]0%
SurveyUSA/FairVote[33]Oct 23–27, 2020509 (LV)45%[i]48%2%2%1%[j]2%
49%[aq]51%
Colby College[34]Oct 21–25, 2020453 (LV)42%46%4%[m]9%
Pan Atlantic Research[35]Oct 2–6, 2020300 (LV)± 6.4%43%47%6%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[36]Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020234 (LV)49%41%2%1%1%[ar]3%
Colby College[38]Sep 17–23, 2020425 (LV)43%46%3%[as]8%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe[39]Sep 17–20, 2020233 (LV)45%[i]47%0%0%1%[at]6%
45%[k]47%0%0%1%[au]6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[58][1]Sep 11–16, 2020440 (LV)45%[v]47%
Quinnipiac University[41]Sep 10–14, 2020476 (LV)44%53%0%[y]3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[42]Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020367 (LV)45%49%
Left of Centre PAC[59][B]Aug 25–28, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%48%3%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[55]Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020249 (LV)38%39%12%[av]11%
Quinnipiac University[56]Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020382 (RV)[al]45%44%6%[ab]5%
Colby College/SocialSphere[60]Jul 18–24, 2020449 (LV)42%45%4%[m]9%
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019461 (LV)46%49%4%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019939 (LV)± 3.2%43%52%5%
Gravis Marketing[53]Jun 24, 2019767 (RV)± 3.5%49%51%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019939 (LV)± 3.2%44%50%6%
Gravis Marketing[53]Jun 24, 2019767 (RV)± 3.5%48%52%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50]Mar 2–3, 2020872 (V)± 3.3%42%52%7%
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019939 (LV)± 3.2%43%53%4%
Gravis Marketing[53]Jun 24, 2019767 (RV)± 3.5%47%53%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019939 (LV)± 3.2%43%53%4%
Gravis Marketing[53]Jun 24, 2019767 (RV)± 3.5%48%52%

with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019478 (LV)38%58%3%

with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019478 (LV)39%57%4%

with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019478 (LV)39%57%4%

with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019478 (LV)39%57%3%

with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019461 (LV)49%44%7%

with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019461 (LV)49%43%8%

with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019461 (LV)47%49%4%

with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]Oct 11–13, 2019461 (LV)48%47%5%
Hypothetical polling

with Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere[61][2]Feb 10–13, 20201,008 (LV)± 3.1%34%37%30%[aw]

with Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research[62]Mar 4–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%27%53%19%[ax]

with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere[61][3]Feb 10–13, 2020515 (LV)28%41%31%[ay]

with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere[61][4]Feb 10–13, 2020493 (LV)41%34%28%[az]

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Maine[63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
435,07253.09%+5.26%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
360,73744.02%−0.85%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
14,1521.73%−3.36%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker
8,2301.00%−0.91%
AllianceRocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,1830.15%N/A
Write-in870.01%N/A
Total votes819,461100.00%
Democraticwin

By county

[edit]
Parts of this article (those related to County results) need to beupdated. The reason given is:County results needs to be fixed, totals aren't accurate when summed. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(December 2024)
CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Androscoggin27,61747.04%29,26849.85%1,8223.11%-1,651-2.81%58,707
Aroostook13,95639.04%21,11359.06%6771.90%-7,157-20.02%35,746
Cumberland128,75966.45%59,58430.75%5,4222.80%69,17535.70%193,765
Franklin8,06946.40%8,75450.34%5673.26%-685-3.94%17,390
Hancock19,36954.83%14,98242.41%9742.76%4,38712.42%35,325
Kennebec34,90248.57%34,72148.32%2,2353.11%1810.25%71,858
Knox15,11058.72%9,98238.79%6422.49%5,12819.93%25,734
Lincoln12,68453.76%10,25643.47%6542.77%2,42810.29%23,594
Oxford14,75544.06%17,69852.84%1,0393.10%-2,943-8.78%33,492
Penobscot37,71344.23%44,82552.57%2,7313.20%-7,112-8.34%85,269
Piscataquis3,51735.50%6,14362.00%2482.50%-2,626-26.50%9,908
Sagadahoc13,52856.28%9,75540.58%7553.14%3,77315.70%24,038
Somerset10,19936.98%16,64460.35%7352.67%-6,445-23.37%27,578
Waldo12,34550.76%11,19646.03%7813.21%1,1494.73%24,322
Washington6,76138.95%10,19458.73%4022.32%-3,433-19.78%17,357
York71,18954.90%54,81742.28%3,6532.82%16,37212.62%129,659
Totals435,07253.09%360,77044.03%23,6192.88%74,3029.06%819,461

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5–10%
  •   Democratic — +5–7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5–5%
  •   Democratic — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +5–7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5–10%
  •   Democratic — +5–7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5–5%
  •   Democratic — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +5–7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won the first of Maine's two congressional districts. Trump won the other district, which elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in the same election cycle.[63]

DistrictBidenTrumpOtherRepresentative
#%#%#%
1st266,37660.11%164,04537.02%12,6912.86%Chellie Pingree
2nd168,69644.82%196,69252.26%10,9612.91%Jared Golden

Analysis

[edit]

Biden carried the Pine Tree State by a 9.07% margin over Trump, improving overHillary Clinton's 3% win margin in 2016. Biden handily carriedMaine's 1st congressional district by 23%, while Trump carried its 2nd congressional district by 7.4%, winning a single electoral vote from the state. This marked the first election in history in which Maine andNebraska both split their electoral votes. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Biden earned a majority statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump earned a majority in the 2nd district. Biden narrowly flippedKennebec County (home to the state capital,Augusta) four years after Clinton lost it. All other counties favored the same party they did in 2016.[65]

Maine is located inNew England, an area that has become aDemocratic Party stronghold. It was once a classicRockefeller Republican state, but social issues have moved it to the Democratic column. The last Republican to win all its electoral votes wasGeorge H. W. Bush in1988. Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Biden's strength in Maine came fromliberals, with Biden winningwhites 54%–44%, including 56% of white women. Biden was even competitive with Trump among Maine'sgun owners, a traditionally Republican interest group, capturing 42% of their vote to Trump's 57%.[66]

This was the first presidential election since2004 in whichMaine's 2nd congressional district backed the losing candidate, and the 2nd district is the only part of the so-calledBlue Wall which Trump won in 2020, referring to states and electoral-vote areas that voted Democratic in every election from 1992 to 2012; Biden thus became the first Democrat since1976 to win the White House without carrying this district, and consequently also the first since said election to win without carrying all of the electoral votes located inNew England. Biden also became the first Democrat since1892 to win the White House without carryingAndroscoggin County, the first since1976 to do so without carryingAroostook,Franklin,Oxford,Penobscot, orWashington counties, and the first since1992 to do so without carryingSomerset County.

Edison exit polls

[edit]
2020 presidential election in Maine by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[67][68]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote53.0944.02100
Ideology
Liberals93428
Moderates613742
Conservatives98930
Party
Democrats94528
Republicans98931
Independents593541
Gender
Men425241
Women613859
Race/ethnicity
White534495
Non-white47465
Age
18–24 years old66318
25–29 years old53377
30–39 years old593813
40–49 years old385613
50–64 years old495031
65 and older594028
Sexual orientation
LGBT6
Not LGBT544394
Education
High school or less356221
Somecollege education504728
Associate degree474912
Bachelor's degree673222
Postgraduate degree663017
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality96315
Coronavirus881021
Economy69235
Crime and safety8
Health care11
Region
Portland area732317
Southern Maine544336
Bangor/Auburn484818
Downeast/Upcountry435529
Area type
Urban5
Suburban554245
Rural504851
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago168038
Worse than four years ago91821
About the same663238

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcCandidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the date of the election.
  2. ^abCandidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^abcCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrsKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^Did not vote with 1%; "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
  6. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^abcdefghijStandard VI response
  10. ^abcDe La Fuente (A) with 1%
  11. ^abcdeReassigning the second and third preferences of non-Biden/Trump voters
  12. ^ab"No second choice"/"no third choice" with 1%
  13. ^abcd"One of the minor party candidates" with 4%
  14. ^"All other candidates" with 6%
  15. ^"Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
  16. ^Ressigning the second preferences of Hawkins and Jorgensen voters
  17. ^"Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A), "No second preference" and "Someone else" with 1%; Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) with no voters
  18. ^If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  19. ^"A minor party candidate" with 4%
  20. ^ab"Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with 0%
  21. ^"Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) and "Other" with no voters
  22. ^abTopline after Ranked-Choice Voting is used
  23. ^"Someone else" with 0%; would not vote with 1%
  24. ^Includes "Refused"
  25. ^ab"Someone else" with 0%
  26. ^Would not vote with 1%
  27. ^"Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 1%
  28. ^ab"Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
  29. ^"Some other candidate" with 7%
  30. ^If only Biden and Trump were candidates
  31. ^"One of the minor party candidates" with 5%
  32. ^ab"Someone else" with 3%
  33. ^"Refused" and "Someone else" with 1%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
  34. ^"A minor party candidate" with 5%
  35. ^"Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A) with 0%; "Other" with no voters
  36. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  37. ^"Someone else" with 9%; "Prefer not to say" with 2%; Would not vote with 1%
  38. ^abAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  39. ^"Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  40. ^"One of the minor party candidates" with 6%
  41. ^Did not vote, "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
  42. ^After three rounds of ranked choice voting
  43. ^With Ranked Choice Voting
  44. ^"Refused" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
  45. ^"A minor party candidate" with 3%
  46. ^"Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Fuente (A) with no voters
  47. ^"Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with no voters
  48. ^"Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 2%
  49. ^"It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" and "Undecided at this time" with 15%
  50. ^"Consider voting for Trump" with 15%; Undecided with 5%
  51. ^"It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
  52. ^"It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%

Partisan clients

  1. ^AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  2. ^The pollster exclusively supports Democratic candidates

References

[edit]
  1. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  2. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  3. ^"Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. RetrievedAugust 25, 2017.
  4. ^Thistle, Scott (September 6, 2019)."Gov. Mills allows ranked-choice voting in Maine's presidential elections".Press Herald. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2019.
  5. ^"A Timeline of Ranked-choice Voting in Maine"(PDF). Maine Department of the Secretary of State.
  6. ^"Maine 2020 President exit polls".www.cnn.com. RetrievedNovember 2, 2022.
  7. ^N. P. R. Staff (November 3, 2020)."Maine Live Election Results 2020".NPR. RetrievedNovember 2, 2022.
  8. ^"Maine Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedMarch 20, 2020.
  9. ^"Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Tabulations June 12, 2018".maine.gov. Maine Secretary of State. RetrievedMarch 25, 2020.
  10. ^"Maine Election Results 2020".PBS NewsHour. RetrievedMarch 26, 2020.
  11. ^"March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election: Tabulation of Votes". State of Maine Department of the Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. RetrievedOctober 14, 2020.
  12. ^"2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Maine Democrat".The Green Papers. RetrievedNovember 24, 2022.
  13. ^Shepherd, Michael (July 31, 2020)."Libertarian presidential candidate sues Maine in bid to loosen ballot access rules".Bangor Daily News. RetrievedAugust 2, 2020.
  14. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  15. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  16. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  17. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  18. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  19. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  20. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  21. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  22. ^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020. RetrievedJuly 13, 2020.
  23. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  24. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".CBS News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  25. ^"2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".NPR.org. RetrievedAugust 3, 2020.
  26. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  27. ^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on August 12, 2020. RetrievedAugust 14, 2020.
  28. ^abc"Maine 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin".270toWin.com.
  29. ^Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018)."Maine : President: general election Polls".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2018.
  30. ^abc"x.com".
  31. ^abcdef"Candidate preference".www.tableau.com.
  32. ^abc"Emerson Polling - Super Poll Sunday: Biden with Slight Lead over Trump in Pennsylvania; Maine's Second District Competitive".emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  33. ^abcPiper, Jessica (October 29, 2020)."Sara Gideon, Susan Collins nearly tied in poll finding ranked-choice voting gives Democrat edge".Bangor Daily News.
  34. ^abc"Colby College - Maine Wave 4- Banners".Google Docs.
  35. ^abc"Pan Atlantic Research 56th Omnibus Report.pdf".Google Docs.
  36. ^abc"BDN DRI Survey of Voters in Maine (Profile of Those Highly Likely to Vote).pdf".Google Docs.
  37. ^"Data for Progress (D)"(PDF).
  38. ^abcd"Government | Colby College".
  39. ^abc"Collins trails Gideon in Maine Senate race, according to a new Suffolk/Globe poll - The Boston Globe".BostonGlobe.com.
  40. ^"Siena College/NYT Upshot"(PDF).
  41. ^abc"Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
  42. ^abc"Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 11, 2020.
  43. ^"Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 16, 2020.
  44. ^"Quinnipiac University". Archived fromthe original on August 7, 2020.
  45. ^"RMG Research"(PDF).
  46. ^"Data for Progress"(PDF).
  47. ^"Public Policy Polling/AFSCME"(PDF).
  48. ^"Government | Colby College"(PDF).
  49. ^"Public Policy Polling"(PDF).
  50. ^ab"Public Policy Polling"(PDF).
  51. ^abcdefghijklmno"Public Policy Polling"(PDF).
  52. ^"Fabrizio Ward/AARP"(PDF).
  53. ^abcde"Gravis Marketing"(PDF).
  54. ^"2020 Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling".www.realclearpolling.com.
  55. ^ab"Data Tables for the DRI and BDN Poll of Voters in Maine.pdf".Google Docs.
  56. ^ab"Quinnipiac University"(PDF).
  57. ^"2020 Maine CD2 Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling".www.realclearpolling.com.
  58. ^"x.com".
  59. ^"Left of Centre PAC"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 10, 2020.
  60. ^Colby College/SocialSphere
  61. ^abc"200217_Colby_College_Banners_(Wave 1)".Google Docs.
  62. ^"Pan Atlantic Research 55th Omnibus Poll.pdf".Google Docs.
  63. ^ab"U.S. President by Congressional District".Maine Department of the Secretary of State.Archived from the original on December 13, 2024. RetrievedDecember 9, 2020.
  64. ^"Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election".The Republican. March 17, 2021.Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  65. ^"Maine presidential election results 2020: Live results and polls".www.nbcnews.com. RetrievedNovember 19, 2020.
  66. ^"Maine Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  67. ^"Maine 2020 President exit polls".www.cnn.com. RetrievedDecember 28, 2020.
  68. ^"Maine Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020. RetrievedDecember 28, 2020.

Further reading

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External links

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