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2020 United States presidential election in Kansas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2020 United States presidential election
2020United States presidential election in Kansas

← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout65.9%[1]Increase
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote60
Popular vote771,406570,323
Percentage56.14%41.51%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Kansas
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Mayoral elections
Mayoral elections

The2020 United States presidential election in Kansas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[2]Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump ofFlorida, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence ofIndiana againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden ofDelaware, and his running mateSenatorKamala Harris ofCalifornia. Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Although Trump won the state, Biden's 41.51 percent vote share represented the highest for a Democratic presidential nominee sinceBarack Obama's performance in2008 and among the strongest swings to Biden, relative toHillary Clinton's performance in2016, in the nation. His 14.63-point defeat represented the first time since1916, and only the second time ever, that Kansas voted more Democratic than neighboringMissouri, where his margin of defeat was 15.39 points. This trend repeated in 2024, with Kamala Harris's 16 point defeat in Kansas less than her 18.4 point defeat inMissouri.

Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Trump's strength in Kansas came fromwhite voters, who supported Trump by 59%–38%; white voters with college degrees, however, were tied. This result included a 64% showing for Trump amongProtestants and a 74% showing among otherChristians. Trump's best margin was 72% in rural areas, while Biden's was 52% in suburban counties.[4]

Primary elections

[edit]

Canceled Republican primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 7, 2019, theKansas Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to cancel their respective primaries and caucuses officially.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries whenGeorge H. W. Bush andGeorge W. Bush sought a second term in1992 and2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in1996 and2012, respectively.[6][7] At its state convention held between January 31 and February 1, 2020, the state party voted to formally bind all 39 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[8][9]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary

The Kansas Democratic primary was conducted entirelyby mail. Votes were counted on May 2, 2020. Joe Biden was declared the winner.[10]

This section is an excerpt from2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary § KSresults.[edit]
2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary final results[11]
CandidateVotes%Delegates
Joe Biden110,04174.9229
Bernie Sanders(withdrawn)33,14222.5710
Inactive votes[a]3,6902.51
Total146,873100%39

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[12]Likely RSeptember 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13]Lean RSeptember 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Likely RJuly 14, 2020
Politico[15]Likely ROctober 16, 2020
RCP[16]Safe RAugust 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]Safe RJuly 26, 2020
CNN[18]Safe RAugust 3, 2020
The Economist[19]Safe RSeptember 2, 2020
CBS News[20]Likely RAugust 16, 2020
270towin[21]Safe RAugust 2, 2020
ABC News[22]Safe RJuly 31, 2020
NPR[23]Likely RAugust 3, 2020
NBC News[24]Likely RAugust 6, 2020
538[25]Safe RNovember 2, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
%support01020304050602/6/20208/9/202010/1/202011/2/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win[26]October 17–22, 2020November 3, 202043.0%51.7%5.3%Trump +8.7
FiveThirtyEight[27]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202041.0%53.9%5.1%Trump +12.9
Average42.0%52.8%5.2%Trump +10.8

Polls

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,321 (LV)± 3%55%[d]44%
Data For Progress[29]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,121 (LV)± 2.9%55%41%3%2%[e]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Oct 1–28, 20203,442 (LV)± 2.5%51%47%
PPP/Protect Our Care[30][A]Oct 19–20, 2020897 (V)± 3.3%54%42%4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[31]Oct 18–20, 2020755 (LV)± 4%48%41%4%2%[f]6%[g]
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[32][B]Oct 18–20, 20202,453 (LV)± 3.7%56%39%2%3%
Fort Hays State University[33]Sep 21 – Oct 1, 2020306 (RV)± 4.8%52%38%11%[h]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Sep 1–30, 20201,135 (LV)52%47%1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[34]Sep 26–29, 2020677 (LV)± 4.5%52%42%4%[i]1%
Data For Progress (D)[35]Sep 14–19, 2020883 (LV)± 3.3%48%[j]42%3%1%[k]7%
49%[l]45%6%
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[36][B]Sep 15–16, 2020794 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Aug 1–31, 2020922 (LV)54%45%1%
SurveyUSA[37]Aug 5–9, 20201,202 (LV)± 3.3%48%41%5%[m]6%
Public Policy Polling[38][C]Aug 5–6, 2020864 (V)± 3.3%50%43%7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Jul 1–31, 20201,295 (LV)51%47%2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Jun 8–30, 2020466 (LV)53%45%2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[39]May 30 – Jun 1, 2020699 (RV)± 4.2%52%40%6%[n]2%
The Progress Campaign (D)[40]Apr 15–22, 20201,632 (LV)± 4.7%51%41%8%
Public Policy Polling[41]Mar 10–11, 20201,567 (V)52%40%8%
DFM Research[42]Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020600 (A)±4%51%43%3%[o]3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
OtherUndecided
DFM Research[42]Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020600 (A)±4%50%43%2%[p]4%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D)[43][1]Feb 17, 2020572 (RV)± 5.2%51%40%10%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[41]Mar 10–11, 20201,567 (V)52%40%7%
The Progress Campaign (D)[43][2]Feb 17, 2020572 (RV)± 5.2%63%26%11%
DFM Research[42]Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020600 (A)±4%53%43%2%[p]1%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
The Progress Campaign (D)[43][3]Feb 17, 2020572 (RV)± 5.2%63%32%5%
DFM Research[42]Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020600 (A)±4%53%41%3%[o]3%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Kansas[44][45]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
771,40656.14%+0.11%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
570,32341.51%+5.85%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
30,5742.23%−2.40%
GreenHowie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
6690.05%−1.91%
American SolidarityBrian Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)
5790.04%N/A
IndependentKanye West (write-in)
Michelle Tidball (write-in)
3320.02%N/A
Write-in1030.01%N/A
Total votes1,373,986100%

By county

[edit]
County[46]Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Allen4,21871.59%1,57026.65%1041.77%2,64844.94%5,892
Anderson2,92977.24%78220.62%812.14%2,14756.62%3,792
Atchison4,90665.94%2,35931.71%1752.35%2,54734.23%7,440
Barber2,01485.99%29112.43%371.58%1,72373.57%2,342
Barton8,60877.20%2,34020.99%2021.64%6,28856.21%11,130
Bourbon5,02375.24%1,54123.08%1121.68%3,48252.16%6,676
Brown3,26272.96%1,10424.69%1052.35%2,15848.27%4,471
Butler22,63469.60%9,18128.23%7052.17%13,45341.37%32,520
Chase1,12375.32%34523.14%231.54%77852.18%1,491
Chautauqua1,40285.28%21212.90%301.82%1,19072.38%1,644
Cherokee6,76673.94%2,19423.98%1912.09%4,57249.96%9,151
Cheyenne1,18382.79%22415.68%221.54%95967.11%1,429
Clark90484.72%14313.40%201.87%76171.32%1,067
Clay3,17775.97%89421.38%1112.65%2,28354.59%4,182
Cloud3,24276.05%92021.58%1012.37%2,32254.47%4,263
Coffey3,48976.43%96421.12%1122.45%2,52555.31%4,565
Comanche76283.19%12613.76%283.06%63669.43%916
Cowley9,65667.85%4,27330.03%3022.12%5,38337.83%14,231
Crawford10,04560.08%6,17936.96%4942.95%3,86623.12%16,718
Decatur1,26084.11%21814.55%201.34%1,04269.56%1,498
Dickinson7,12676.22%2,06022.03%1631.74%5,06654.19%9,349
Doniphan2,97680.24%68618.50%471.27%2,29061.74%3,709
Douglas17,28628.84%40,78568.04%1,8703.12%-23,499-39.20%59,941
Edwards1,14179.73%27118.94%191.33%87060.80%1,431
Elk1,14083.76%19514.33%261.91%94569.43%1,361
Ellis9,75870.42%3,73726.97%3612.61%6,02143.45%13,856
Ellsworth2,14875.29%64822.71%572.00%1,50052.58%2,853
Finney7,23661.08%4,32536.51%2852.41%2,91124.57%11,846
Ford5,80365.09%2,94733.06%1651.85%2,85632.04%8,915
Franklin8,47967.96%3,69029.57%3082.47%4,78938.38%12,477
Geary5,32355.43%3,98341.48%2973.09%1,34013.95%9,603
Gove1,29187.76%16611.28%140.95%1,12576.48%1,471
Graham1,08080.78%22817.05%292.17%85263.72%1,337
Grant1,93677.41%51820.71%471.88%1,41856.70%2,501
Gray1,91183.52%34114.90%361.57%1,57068.62%2,288
Greeley54985.65%7812.17%142.18%47173.48%641
Greenwood2,44479.43%56918.49%642.08%1,87560.94%3,077
Hamilton69881.26%14116.41%202.33%55764.84%859
Harper2,16880.96%46117.21%491.83%1,70763.74%2,678
Harvey10,18258.52%6,74738.78%4702.70%3,43519.74%17,399
Haskell1,12279.57%26819.01%201.42%85460.57%1,410
Hodgeman87583.73%15414.74%161.53%72169.00%1,045
Jackson4,51768.61%1,88128.57%1862.83%2,63640.04%6,584
Jefferson6,33464.75%3,19432.65%2542.60%3,14032.10%9,782
Jewell1,38785.20%21213.02%291.78%1,17572.17%1,628
Johnson155,63144.54%184,25952.74%9,4962.72%-28,628-8.20%349,386
Kearny1,16480.00%26718.35%241.65%89761.65%1,455
Kingman3,13079.26%75219.04%671.70%2,37860.22%3,949
Kiowa98084.12%15613.39%292.49%82470.73%1,165
Labette5,73566.97%2,65531.01%1732.02%3,08035.97%8,563
Lane76285.14%11512.85%182.01%64772.29%895
Leavenworth21,61059.22%13,88638.05%9942.72%7,72421.17%36,490
Lincoln1,28381.25%26616.85%301.90%1,01764.41%1,579
Linn4,04880.22%89617.76%1022.02%3,15262.47%5,046
Logan1,24985.67%18612.76%231.58%1,06372.91%1,458
Lyon7,55053.74%6,05543.10%4443.16%1,49510.64%14,049
Marion4,46573.06%1,51624.81%1302.13%2,94948.26%6,111
Marshall3,72972.92%1,25924.62%1262.46%2,47048.30%5,114
McPherson9,96469.01%4,13428.63%3402.35%5,83040.38%14,438
Meade1,52383.45%26314.41%392.14%1,26069.04%1,825
Miami12,30868.42%5,24729.17%4342.41%7,06139.25%17,989
Mitchell2,50480.75%55817.99%391.26%1,94662.75%3,101
Montgomery9,93173.97%3,22824.04%2671.99%6,70349.93%13,426
Morris2,12473.27%72925.15%461.59%1,39548.12%2,899
Morton1,03486.31%15012.52%141.17%88473.79%1,198
Nemaha4,66482.05%92716.31%931.64%3,73765.75%5,684
Neosho4,97072.27%1,79626.12%1111.61%3,17446.15%6,877
Ness1,33988.50%1499.85%251.65%1,19078.65%1,513
Norton2,00783.11%36415.07%441.82%1,64368.03%2,415
Osage5,70571.00%2,13626.58%1942.41%3,56944.42%8,035
Osborne1,62983.75%28114.45%351.80%1,34869.31%1,945
Ottawa2,61081.79%50615.86%752.35%2,10465.94%3,191
Pawnee2,04574.66%64323.48%511.86%1,40251.19%2,739
Phillips2,41886.95%31811.43%451.62%2,10075.51%2,781
Pottawatomie9,45272.25%3,31325.32%3182.43%6,13946.92%13,083
Pratt3,10875.13%93322.55%962.32%2,17552.57%4,137
Rawlins1,26183.84%21414.23%291.93%1,04769.61%1,504
Reno18,44365.73%8,88631.67%7312.61%9,55734.06%28,060
Republic2,18282.12%42415.96%511.92%1,75866.16%2,657
Rice3,26275.53%96522.34%922.13%2,29753.18%4,319
Riley11,61046.12%12,76550.71%7963.16%-1,155-4.59%25,171
Rooks2,32586.14%33912.56%351.30%1,98673.58%2,699
Rush1,35080.50%29517.59%321.91%1,05562.91%1,677
Russell2,79080.47%60017.31%772.22%2,19063.17%3,467
Saline15,72263.85%8,21433.36%6882.79%7,50830.49%24,624
Scott2,01485.56%29912.70%411.74%1,71572.85%2,354
Sedgwick122,41654.44%95,87042.64%6,5762.92%26,54611.80%224,862
Seward3,37263.69%1,83334.62%891.68%1,53929.07%5,294
Shawnee40,44346.96%43,01549.95%2,6643.09%-2,572-2.99%86,122
Sheridan1,28288.72%14710.17%161.11%1,13578.55%1,445
Sherman2,26983.20%39614.52%622.27%1,87368.68%2,727
Smith1,76382.81%33615.78%301.41%1,42767.03%2,129
Stafford1,64580.88%35717.55%321.57%1,28863.32%2,034
Stanton61479.12%14819.07%141.80%46660.05%776
Stevens1,76086.66%23711.67%341.67%1,52374.99%2,031
Sumner8,10574.17%2,59123.71%2322.12%5,51450.46%10,928
Thomas3,13082.15%62516.40%551.44%2,50565.75%3,810
Trego1,36383.62%24214.85%251.53%1,12168.77%1,630
Wabaunsee2,84572.91%96424.71%932.38%1,88148.21%3,902
Wallace77093.33%445.33%111.33%72688.00%825
Washington2,36381.96%47516.48%451.56%1,88865.49%2,883
Wichita80883.47%14915.39%111.14%65968.08%968
Wilson3,15379.74%72318.29%781.97%2,43061.46%3,954
Woodson1,22879.43%29419.02%241.55%93460.41%1,546
Wyandotte18,93433.18%36,78864.46%1,3492.36%-17,854-31.28%57,071
Totals771,40656.00%570,32341.40%35,7552.60%201,08314.60%1,377,484
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won three of Kansas' four congressional districts.[48]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st69.7%28.1%Roger Marshall
Tracey Mann
2nd56.3%41.3%Steve Watkins
Jake LaTurner
3rd43.7%54.3%Sharice Davids
4th59.7%38%Ron Estes

Analysis

[edit]

Biden's gains relative to Hillary Clinton were powered by significant improvement in Kansas' suburbs andcollege towns: he became the first Democrat to carryJohnson County, the state's most populous and home toOverland Park andOlathe, sinceWoodrow Wilson in1916.[49] It was also the first since 1896 that Democrats received a majority in the county. Biden was also the first Democrat ever to winRiley County, anchored by theFort Riley military installation andKansas State University;[50] and the first to winShawnee County, home to the state capital ofTopeka, sinceBill Clinton's narrow plurality in1992.[51]

While he failed to break the 56-year Republican winning streak inSedgwick County, the second most populous in the state and home to the state's largest cityWichita, his 42.9 percent of the vote there was the strongest for a Democrat sinceJimmy Carter received 46.5 percent of the vote in1976.[52] Biden would also build upon Hillary Clinton's share (32.31%) and even break Carter's record atSeward County of 33.96%. At 34.62%, this was the highest percentage of votes a Democratic presidential candidate has won in the county sinceLyndon B. Johnson won 46.14% in1964. This was also the first election since the three-way contest of 1992 in which a Democratic candidate won at least five counties, along with it being the smallest margin of victory for a Republican nominee since George Bush in 1992.

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^Hawkins (G) and "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  6. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  7. ^Includes "Refused"
  8. ^"Neither of the two candidates" with 11%
  9. ^"Someone else" with 4%
  10. ^Standard VI response
  11. ^Hawkins (G) with 1%
  12. ^If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  13. ^"Some other candidate" with 5%
  14. ^"Someone else" with 6%
  15. ^ab"Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  2. ^abKeep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ^Poll forEMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Voter turnout in United States elections".Ballotpedia. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2023.
  2. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  3. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^"Kansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  5. ^Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019)."Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes".AP NEWS.
  6. ^Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019)."GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers".The Boston Globe. MSN. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2019.
  7. ^Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019)."GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged".ABC News. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2019.
  8. ^"Kansas GOP won't hold a caucus in 2020". KAKE. September 6, 2019. Archived fromthe original on February 9, 2020. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2020.
  9. ^"Kansas Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2020.
  10. ^Hanna, John (May 3, 2020)."Joe Biden Wins Kansas Primary Conducted Exclusively By Mail".HuffPost. RetrievedMay 3, 2020.
  11. ^"KSDEMS: 2020 Primary Results.xlsx".Google Docs. Kansas Democratic Party. RetrievedMay 3, 2020.
  12. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  13. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  14. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  15. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
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