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2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

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Main article:2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout64.58%[1]Increase
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,729,8571,242,498
Percentage57.03%40.96%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Indiana
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
1996
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections

Apresidential election was held inIndiana on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[3]Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former vice presidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California senatorKamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served asGovernor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state.[5] On the day of the election, most news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a likelyred state. Trump won Indiana by 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory.

This election marked the first time since1952 and only the third time since1888 thatVigo County, home toTerre Haute and a significantbellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party sinceDwight D. Eisenhower in1952, and the first Democrat sinceGrover Cleveland in1884 to win the presidency without carrying Vigo County.[6]

Biden flippedTippecanoe County,[7] home toLafayette andPurdue University, from Republican to Democratic, marking the first time since1936 that the county voted against Indiana's statewide winner. Biden also became the first Democrat sinceFDR in1944 to win without carrying traditionally DemocraticPerry County in Southern Indiana. Biden was also the first Democrat to win without LaPorte County since 1976.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 58 delegates to the2020 Republican National Convention.[8]

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary[9]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[10]
Joe Biden380,83676.4880
Bernie Sanders(withdrawn)67,68813.592
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)17,9573.61
Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn)14,3442.88
Michael Bloomberg(withdrawn)4,7830.96
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)4,4260.89
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)3,8600.78
Tulsi Gabbard(withdrawn)2,6570.53
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)1,3760.28
Total497,927100%82

Libertarian nominee

[edit]

The2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selectingJo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

Green primary

[edit]

The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020.[11]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[12]Likely ROctober 6, 2020
Inside Elections[13]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Likely ROctober 6, 2020
Politico[15]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
RCP[16]Lean ROctober 6, 2020
Niskanen[17]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
CNN[18]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
The Economist[19]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
CBS News[20]Likely ROctober 6, 2020
270towin[21]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
ABC News[22]Safe ROctober 6, 2020
NPR[23]Likely ROctober 6, 2020
NBC News[24]Likely ROctober 6, 2020
538[25]Safe ROctober 6, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
%support01020304050604/13/20208/31/202010/26/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win[26]October 14 - November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%51.0%7.0%Trump +9.0
FiveThirtyEight[27]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%52.9%5.1%Trump +10.8

Polls

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,729 (LV)± 2.5%54%[c]44%
Swayable[29]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020264 (LV)± 7.8%55%43%2%
Morning Consult[30]Oct 22–31, 20201,147 (LV)± 3%53%42%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Oct 1–28, 20204,734 (LV)55%43%
Swayable[31]Oct 23–26, 2020301 (LV)± 7.4%53%42%5%
Ragnar Research (R)[32]Oct 18–21, 2020529 (LV)± 4%48%40%5%7%
SurveyUSA/Election Twitter[33]Oct 10–13, 2020527 (LV)± 5.2%49%42%3%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Sep 1–30, 20202,367 (LV)53%45%
Change Research/IndyPolitics[34]Sep 3–7, 20201,033 (LV)± 3.1%53%39%5%3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Aug 1–31, 20201,672 (LV)55%43%
Morning Consult[35]Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020[d]900 (LV)± 3.5%55%38%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Jul 1–31, 20202,175 (LV)56%43%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28]Jun 8–30, 2020929 (LV)57%40%
Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General[36][1][A]May 21–23, 2020894 (LV)± 3.3%49%39%
Indy Politics/Change Research[37]Apr 10–13, 20201,021 (LV)± 3.1%52%39%5%3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics[38]Aug 17–23, 2017603 (LV)± 4.0%45%39%17%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Indiana[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent)
1,729,85757.03%Increase 0.09%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,242,49840.96%Increase 3.19%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
58,9011.94%Decrease 2.96%
GreenHowie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
9890.03%Decrease 0.26%
American SolidarityBrian T. Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)
8950.03%N/A
Write-in700.00%Decrease 0.03%
Total votes3,033,210100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
Parts of this article (those related to County results) need to beupdated. The reason given is:County results needs to be fixed, totals aren't accurate. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(December 2024)
CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams10,68675.05%3,23622.73%3172.22%7,45052.32%14,239
Allen92,08354.31%73,18943.16%4,2882.53%18,89411.15%169,560
Bartholomew22,41061.74%12,93435.63%9562.63%9,47626.11%36,300
Benton3,00773.07%1,00924.52%992.41%1,99848.55%4,115
Blackford3,84171.69%1,37625.68%1412.63%2,46546.01%5,358
Boone22,35157.80%15,24439.42%1,0732.78%7,10718.38%38,668
Brown5,77764.32%3,03633.80%1681.88%2,74130.52%8,981
Carroll7,08674.48%2,22423.38%2042.14%4,86251.10%9,514
Cass10,55269.43%4,30428.32%3422.25%6,24841.11%15,198
Clark33,66857.99%23,09339.78%1,2962.23%10,57518.21%58,057
Clay9,49977.35%2,55220.78%2201.87%6,94756.57%12,281
Clinton9,33472.02%3,36125.93%2662.05%5,97346.09%12,961
Crawford3,48370.39%1,35527.38%1102.23%2,12843.01%4,948
Daviess9,57679.99%2,16918.12%2261.89%7,40761.87%11,971
Dearborn19,52876.78%5,44621.41%4601.81%14,08255.37%25,434
Decatur9,57577.82%2,43919.82%2902.36%7,13658.00%12,304
DeKalb14,23772.43%4,96625.26%4532.31%9,27147.17%19,656
Delaware26,82755.49%20,47442.35%1,0412.16%6,35313.14%48,342
Dubois15,03368.94%6,29228.85%4812.21%8,74140.09%21,806
Elkhart46,97262.95%26,10834.99%1,5382.06%20,86427.96%74,618
Fayette7,75576.43%2,23722.05%1541.52%5,51854.38%10,146
Floyd23,40055.85%17,51141.79%9882.36%5,88914.06%41,899
Fountain6,15476.99%1,62920.38%2102.63%4,52556.61%7,993
Franklin9,69180.64%2,13717.78%1901.58%7,55462.86%12,018
Fulton6,69473.18%2,28024.93%1731.89%4,41448.25%9,147
Gibson11,81773.12%4,02324.89%3211.99%7,79448.23%16,161
Grant18,54368.10%8,01529.43%6722.47%10,52838.67%27,230
Greene11,10374.98%3,38922.89%3152.13%7,71452.09%14,807
Hamilton101,58752.21%88,39045.43%4,6002.36%13,1976.78%194,577
Hancock28,99667.40%12,89529.97%1,1292.63%16,10137.43%43,020
Harrison14,56571.98%5,34326.40%3281.62%9,22245.58%20,236
Hendricks53,80260.65%32,60436.76%2,2992.59%21,19823.89%88,705
Henry15,04371.43%5,54426.32%4742.25%9,49945.11%21,061
Howard26,44965.10%13,30332.74%8782.16%13,14632.36%40,630
Huntington13,14773.57%4,25523.81%4682.62%8,89249.76%17,870
Jackson14,55575.66%4,30222.36%3811.98%10,25353.30%19,238
Jasper11,38373.56%3,79824.54%2941.90%7,58549.02%15,475
Jay6,36175.14%1,92622.75%1792.11%4,43552.39%8,466
Jefferson9,66365.60%4,73132.12%3362.28%4,93233.48%14,730
Jennings9,49077.29%2,52320.55%2652.16%6,96756.74%12,278
Johnson51,21965.83%24,73631.79%1,8472.38%26,48334.04%77,802
Knox11,65572.72%4,06725.37%3061.91%7,58847.35%16,028
Kosciusko26,49973.85%8,36423.31%1,0212.84%18,13550.54%35,884
LaGrange8,11076.14%2,35522.11%1871.75%5,75554.03%10,652
Lake91,76041.65%124,87056.67%3,7001.68%-33,110-15.02%220,330
LaPorte25,99752.54%22,42745.32%1,0592.14%3,5707.22%49,483
Lawrence15,60174.04%4,96123.54%5092.42%10,64050.50%21,071
Madison31,21560.16%19,52437.63%1,1512.21%11,69122.53%51,890
Marion134,17534.30%247,77263.35%9,1872.35%-113,597-29.05%391,134
Marshall13,84469.38%5,71228.63%3971.99%8,13240.75%19,953
Martin4,02978.16%1,01119.61%1152.23%3,01858.55%5,155
Miami10,92575.38%3,23522.32%3332.30%7,69053.06%14,493
Monroe22,07134.95%39,86163.12%1,2191.93%-17,790-28.17%63,151
Montgomery12,65973.61%4,21324.50%3261.89%8,44649.11%17,198
Morgan27,51275.96%7,78121.48%9282.56%19,73154.48%36,221
Newton4,94274.78%1,50922.83%1582.39%3,43351.95%6,609
Noble14,19573.87%4,66024.25%3621.88%9,53549.62%19,217
Ohio2,39275.60%75023.70%220.70%1,64251.90%3,164
Orange6,43272.73%2,22425.15%1882.12%4,20847.58%8,844
Owen7,28673.47%2,42024.40%2112.13%4,86649.07%9,917
Parke5,40076.90%1,50321.40%1191.70%3,89755.50%7,022
Perry5,34561.18%3,20336.66%1892.16%2,14224.52%8,737
Pike4,69275.37%1,41522.73%1181.90%3,27752.64%6,225
Porter45,00851.87%39,74645.81%2,0142.32%5,2626.06%86,768
Posey9,20969.38%3,81728.76%2471.86%5,39240.62%13,273
Pulaski4,24673.04%1,46325.17%1041.79%2,78347.87%5,813
Putnam12,27873.86%3,94623.74%3992.40%8,33250.12%16,623
Randolph8,31275.02%2,51322.68%2542.30%5,79952.34%11,079
Ripley11,26178.79%2,77419.41%2571.80%8,48759.38%14,292
Rush6,03576.00%1,75422.09%1521.91%4,28153.91%7,941
Scott7,33172.00%2,70126.53%1501.47%4,63045.47%10,182
Shelby14,56872.78%5,02325.09%4262.13%9,54547.69%20,017
Spencer7,35768.19%3,21329.78%2192.03%4,14438.41%10,789
St. Joseph53,16446.13%59,89651.98%2,1781.89%-6,732-5.85%115,238
Starke7,46972.42%2,65125.71%1931.87%4,81846.71%10,313
Steuben11,32769.99%4,51327.89%3442.12%6,81442.10%16,184
Sullivan6,69174.28%2,15323.90%1641.82%4,53850.38%9,008
Switzerland3,13375.33%96423.18%621.49%2,16952.15%4,159
Tippecanoe34,58148.15%35,01748.75%2,2263.10%-436-0.60%71,824
Tipton6,11075.21%1,83422.58%1802.21%4,27652.63%8,124
Union2,68876.98%73621.08%681.94%1,95255.90%3,492
Vanderburgh41,84453.88%34,41544.31%1,4031.81%7,4299.57%77,662
Vermillion5,18469.21%2,14528.64%1612.15%3,03940.57%7,490
Vigo24,54556.17%18,12341.47%1,0302.36%6,42214.70%43,698
Wabash10,76273.72%3,49423.93%3422.35%7,26849.79%14,598
Warren3,40176.03%97421.78%982.19%2,42754.25%4,473
Warrick21,32662.93%11,92335.18%6411.89%9,40327.75%33,890
Washington9,11475.08%2,78422.93%2411.99%6,33052.15%12,139
Wayne17,56763.47%9,52434.41%5882.12%8,04329.06%27,679
Wells10,85577.10%2,92820.80%2972.10%7,92756.30%14,080
White7,95771.13%3,03227.10%1981.77%4,92544.03%11,187
Whitley12,86273.13%4,23424.07%4922.80%8,62849.06%17,588
Totals1,729,86356.91%1,242,50540.87%67,4132.22%487,35816.04%3,039,781

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won seven of nine congressional districts.[40]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st45%54%Frank J. Mrvan
2nd59%39%Jackie Walorski
3rd64%34%Jim Banks
4th64%34%Jim Baird
5th50%48%Victoria Spartz
6th69%29%Greg Pence
7th35%63%André Carson
8th65%33%Larry Bucshon
9th61%37%Trey Hollingsworth

Analysis

[edit]

Biden significantly reduced the Republican margin inHamilton County, a suburban county in theIndianapolis metropolitan area that is the state's fourth-most populous county.[41] Hamilton County has never supported a candidate of the Democratic Party for president except for1912, when the split in the Republicans allowedWoodrow Wilson to carry the county with a 34.9% plurality.[6] Hamilton broke 60%-38% forJohn McCain in2008, whenBarack Obama won Indiana.Mitt Romney won Hamilton County 66%–32% in2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of evenLyndon B. Johnson in his nationwide landslide in1964 and higher than that ofFranklin D. Roosevelt in1936.[6] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his1932 landslide.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

Partisan clients

  1. ^This poll is sponsored by Karen Tallian's campaign (D)

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Indiana Election Results". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2025.
  2. ^"Indiana Election Results 2020".The New York Times. November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 5, 2020.
  3. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  5. ^"Indiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  6. ^abc"County winners, 1836-2016".Google Docs. RetrievedNovember 15, 2020.
  7. ^ab"Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election".The Republican. March 17, 2021.Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  8. ^"Indiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedJune 3, 2020.
  9. ^"Past Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. RetrievedNovember 2, 2020.
  10. ^"June 2 contests – Live primary and caucus results, Indiana".Reuters. July 16, 2020. RetrievedApril 16, 2022.
  11. ^"2020 Presidential Primary Voting". Indiana Green Party. RetrievedApril 28, 2020.[permanent dead link]
  12. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  13. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  14. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  15. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  19. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  20. ^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020. RetrievedJuly 13, 2020.
  21. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  22. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".CBS News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  23. ^"2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".NPR. RetrievedAugust 3, 2020.
  24. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  25. ^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on August 12, 2020. RetrievedAugust 14, 2020.
  26. ^270 to Win
  27. ^FiveThirtyEight
  28. ^abcdefSurveyMonkey/Axios
  29. ^SwayableArchived November 13, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  30. ^Morning Consult
  31. ^Swayable
  32. ^Ragnar Research (R)
  33. ^SurveyUSA/Election Twitter
  34. ^Change Research/IndyPolitics
  35. ^Morning Consult
  36. ^Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General
  37. ^Indy Politics/Change Research
  38. ^Zogby Analytics
  39. ^"Federal Elections 2020"(PDF).Federal Election Commission. October 2022.
  40. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::930472f1-d096-42c0-9e38-10f463ecdb89
  41. ^"Indiana Counties by Population".

Further reading

[edit]

External links

[edit]
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Local
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Related
State and district results of the2020 United States presidential election
Electoral map, 2020 election
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