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2020 United States presidential election in Idaho

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Main article:2020 United States presidential election

2020United States presidential election in Idaho

← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout81.2% (of registered voters)Increase[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote40
Popular vote554,119287,021
Percentage63.84%33.07%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

No Data

  


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Idaho
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections

The2020 United States presidential election in Idaho was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[2]Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Idaho has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump easily carried Idaho on Election Day, winning 63.8% of the vote to Biden's 33.1%. Trump's percentage was higher than the 59.2% he received in2016 due to the lack of third-party voters (namelyEvan McMullin of neighboringUtah), but his margin of victory slightly declined, shrinking from 31.8% in 2016 to 30.8% in 2020.

Prior to the election, all news organizations expected Trump to win the state handily. Idaho is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the nation, and has not backed a Democrat for President since1964, whenLyndon B. Johnson very narrowly carried the state amidst a national landslide.

Trump carried 41 of the state's 44 counties. Biden wonBlaine County, home toSun Valley and several other primeski resorts;Latah County, home to thecollege town ofMoscow; and flippedTeton County (which had not been won by the Democratic Party since Barack Obama won it in2008), adjacent toTeton County, Wyoming. Although he did not carry the state's most populous county,Ada County, home to the rapidly growing state capitalBoise, which no Democrat has carried sinceFranklin D. Roosevelt's1936 landslide, Biden slightly improved onBarack Obama's 2008 result and lost Ada by less than four points. Biden's result of 46.4% and his margin of loss in the county were the highest and lowest for a Democratic presidential nominee since1940, when Roosevelt won 49% of the county's vote, consequently losing by less than two points.

Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Trump's strength in Idaho came fromwhite voters, especially those inrural areas, who comprised 91% of the electorate and backed Trump by 64%–32%. Trump also received strong support from CaucasianProtestants, who backed him with 71% of their vote.[4]

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]
This section istranscluded from2020 Idaho Republican presidential primary.(edit |history)

Incumbent United StatesPresidentDonald Trump was challenged by five candidates: businessman and perennial candidateRocky De La Fuente ofCalifornia, entrepreneur and investorBob Ely ofMassachusetts, entrepreneur and attorney Matthew Matern ofLouisiana, former congressmanJoe Walsh ofIllinois, and former governorBill Weld ofMassachusetts. Walsh withdrew from the race prior to the primary.

2020 Idaho Republican presidential primary[5][6]
CandidateVotes%Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump(incumbent)112,37394.46%32
Bill Weld2,4862.09%0
Joe Walsh(withdrawn)2,3411.97%0
Matthew Matern6470.54%0
Rocky De La Fuente6370.54%0
Bob Ely4740.40%0
Total118,311100%32

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section istranscluded from2020 Idaho Democratic presidential primary.(edit |history)

Bernie Sanders,Joe Biden, andTulsi Gabbard were the major declared candidates.[7][8][9]

Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
  Tie—30–40%
2020 Idaho Democratic presidential primary[10]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[11]
Joe Biden53,15148.9212
Bernie Sanders46,11442.448
Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn)[a]2,8782.65
Michael Bloomberg(withdrawn)[a]2,6122.40
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[b]1,4261.31
Tulsi Gabbard8760.81
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[b]7740.71
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)3100.29
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[b]1120.10
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)910.08
John Delaney(withdrawn)650.06
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)570.05
Cory Booker(withdrawn)550.05
Julian Castro(withdrawn)490.05
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)190.02
Other candidates600.06
Total108,649100%20

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[12]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
Inside Elections[13]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
Politico[15]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
RCP[16]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
CNN[18]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
The Economist[19]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
CBS News[20]Likely RNovember 3, 2020
270towin[21]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
ABC News[22]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
NPR[23]Likely RNovember 3, 2020
NBC News[24]Safe RNovember 3, 2020
538[25]Safe RNovember 3, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[26]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202038.5%56.6%4.9%Trump +18.1

Polls

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020909 (LV)± 4.5%58%[e]40%-
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27]Oct 1–28, 20201,799 (LV)58%40%-
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27]Sep 1–30, 2020761 (LV)64%35%-1%
Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front[28]Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020600 (LV)± 4%60%34%-6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27]Aug 1–31, 2020737 (LV)58%40%-2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27]Jul 1–31, 2020671 (LV)63%35%-2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27]Jun 8–30, 2020266 (LV)58%41%-1%

Electoral slates

[edit]

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in theElectoral College should their candidate win the state:[29]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Kanye West and Michelle Tidball
Independent
Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard
Independent
Don Blankenship and William Mohr
Constitution Party
Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson
Independent
Rod Beck
Raul Labrador
Janice McGeachin
Melinda Smyser
Cherie Buckner-Webb
Maryanne Jordan
Elaine Smith
Mary Lou Reed
Elizabeth Clark
Dan Karlan
Aaron Mason
Cathy Smith
Ryan Andrew Fauvell
Julia Hurst
Adriel Martinez
Megan Shoemaker
Zachary Todd Hanna
Terrel Hill
Christopher Kreighbaum
Ryan Lyden
Brendan Gomez
David Hartigan
Tony Ullrich
Ray Writz
Nick Carannante
Tim Guy
Shawn Satterthwaite
Daryl Yandell

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Idaho[30]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent)
554,11963.84%+4.58
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
287,02133.07%+5.60
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
16,4041.89%−2.21
IndependentKanye West
Michelle Tidball
3,6320.42%+0.42
IndependentBrock Pierce
Karla Ballard
2,8080.32%+0.32
ConstitutionDon Blankenship
William Mohr
1,8060.22%−0.12
IndependentRocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,4910.17%−0.03
GreenHowie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
4070.05%−1.17
American SolidarityBrian Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)
1630.02%N/A
Socialism and LiberationGloria La Riva (write-in)
Sunil Freeman (write-in)
490.01%N/A
IndependentJade Simmons (write-in)
Claudeliah Roze (write-in)
210.00%N/A
IndependentOther
(write-in)
130.00%N/A
Total votes867,934100.00%

By county

[edit]
County[31]Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Ada130,69949.98%120,53946.10%10,2503.92%10,1603.88%261,488
Adams1,94175.06%59122.85%542.09%1,35052.21%2,586
Bannock23,33158.65%14,68236.91%1,7704.44%8,64921.74%39,783
Bear Lake2,91487.88%35010.55%521.57%2,56477.33%3,316
Benewah3,87877.95%97719.64%1202.41%2,90158.31%4,975
Bingham15,29576.49%4,12420.62%5772.89%11,17155.87%19,996
Blaine4,03230.32%8,91967.08%3462.60%-4,887-36.78%13,297
Boise3,48572.27%1,20424.97%1332.76%2,28147.30%4,822
Bonner18,36967.16%8,31030.38%6732.46%10,05936.78%27,352
Bonneville37,80569.97%14,25426.38%1,9753.65%23,55143.59%54,034
Boundary4,93778.15%1,22019.31%1602.54%3,71758.84%6,317
Butte1,20284.95%18813.29%251.76%1,01471.66%1,415
Camas50775.22%14922.11%182.67%35853.11%674
Canyon61,75968.27%25,88128.61%2,8173.12%35,87839.66%90,457
Caribou2,90685.07%43112.62%792.31%2,47572.45%3,416
Cassia7,90782.09%1,46415.20%2612.71%6,44366.89%9,632
Clark26484.89%4113.18%61.93%22371.71%311
Clearwater3,45378.14%87719.85%892.01%2,57658.29%4,419
Custer2,08976.27%60322.02%471.71%1,48654.25%2,739
Elmore7,24670.95%2,60125.47%3663.58%4,64545.48%10,213
Franklin5,84587.71%6579.86%1622.43%5,18877.85%6,664
Fremont5,54882.55%99814.85%1752.60%4,55067.70%6,721
Gem7,95179.65%1,80318.06%2292.29%6,14861.59%9,983
Gooding4,65976.98%1,25620.75%1372.27%3,40356.23%6,052
Idaho7,82681.44%1,56116.24%2232.32%6,26565.20%9,610
Jefferson12,09985.32%1,66111.71%4202.97%10,43873.61%14,180
Jerome5,73473.14%1,89324.15%2132.71%3,84148.99%7,840
Kootenai62,83769.91%24,31227.05%2,7293.04%38,52542.86%89,878
Latah9,47245.96%10,23649.67%9024.37%-764-3.61%20,610
Lemhi3,59275.80%1,03221.78%1152.42%2,56054.02%4,739
Lewis1,48979.63%34918.66%321.71%1,14060.97%1,870
Lincoln1,46975.68%41421.33%582.99%1,05554.35%1,941
Madison13,55979.12%2,66615.56%9125.32%10,89363.56%17,137
Minidoka6,26578.38%1,55019.39%1782.23%4,71558.99%7,993
Nez Perce13,73865.47%6,68631.86%5612.67%7,05233.61%20,985
Oneida2,14887.60%24910.15%552.25%1,89977.45%2,452
Owyhee3,81980.52%81617.20%1082.28%3,00363.32%4,743
Payette8,86278.47%2,16119.14%2702.39%6,70159.33%11,293
Power2,11668.57%86528.03%1053.40%1,25140.54%3,086
Shoshone4,21669.70%1,69327.99%1402.31%2,52341.71%6,049
Teton2,85844.92%3,31852.15%1862.93%-460-7.23%6,362
Twin Falls25,89770.93%9,39125.72%1,2243.35%16,50645.21%36,512
Valley3,94755.88%2,97642.14%1401.98%97113.74%7,063
Washington4,15477.70%1,07320.07%1192.23%3,08157.63%5,346
Totals554,11963.67%287,02132.98%29,2113.25%267,09830.69%870,351
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won both congressional districts.[33]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st67%30%Russ Fulcher
2nd60%37%Mike Simpson

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abCandidate withdrew during early voting following Super Tuesday.
  2. ^abcCandidate withdrew during early voting before Super Tuesday.
  3. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2020 General Election".State of Idaho Elections Department. RetrievedNovember 27, 2020.
  2. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  3. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^"Idaho Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  5. ^"Official Election Results".Secretary of State of Idaho. June 2, 2020. RetrievedNovember 28, 2020.
  6. ^"Idaho Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedMarch 11, 2020.
  7. ^Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019)."Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  8. ^Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019)."Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  9. ^Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019)."Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  10. ^"2020 Presidential Primary – OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS". Idaho Elections Department. RetrievedJune 11, 2020.
  11. ^"2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat".The Green Papers. RetrievedJuly 4, 2020.
  12. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  13. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  14. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  15. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  19. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  20. ^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020. RetrievedJuly 13, 2020.
  21. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  22. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".CBS News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  23. ^Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020)."2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".NPR.org. RetrievedAugust 3, 2020.
  24. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  25. ^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on August 12, 2020. RetrievedAugust 14, 2020.
  26. ^Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018)."Idaho : President: general election Polls".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on April 11, 2019.
  27. ^abcdef"Candidate preference".www.tableau.com.
  28. ^"Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 27, 2020.
  29. ^"Idaho Certificate of Ascertainment"(PDF). State of Idaho. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  30. ^"2020 General Election Results".Idaho Secretary of State. RetrievedDecember 13, 2020.
  31. ^"2020 General Election Results – Statistics – Idaho Secretary of State".
  32. ^"Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election".The Republican. March 17, 2021.Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  33. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::14e046b2-98a2-4b59-bfe3-6c8afee85f43

Further reading

[edit]

External links

[edit]
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State and district results of the2020 United States presidential election
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