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2020 United States presidential election in Alaska

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Main article:2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Alaska

← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout60.67% (Decrease 0.1pp)
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote30
Popular vote189,951153,778
Percentage52.83%42.77%

Borough and census area results (estimated)
State house district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Alaska

The2020 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and theDistrict of Columbia participated.[1]Alaska voters chose three electors[2] to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentRepublicanPresidentDonald Trump and hisrunning mate, incumbentVice PresidentMike Pence, againstDemocratic challenger and formerVice PresidentJoe Biden and his running mate,United States SenatorKamala Harris of California. TheLibertarian,Green,Constitution, andAlliance Party nominees were also on the ballot, as was anIndependent candidate.

Prior to the election, 13 of 14 news organizations predicted that Alaska would be a state that Trump would win, or otherwise ared state. Since it was admitted into the Union in 1959, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every single election except1964[3] inLyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide, when he carried it with 65.91% of the vote.[4] However, some analysts believed Alaska could be competitive based on polling.[5][6]

Despite not being aswing state, Alaska was one of the last states to be called; the state did not start countingabsentee ballots orearly votes that were cast after October 29 until November 10.[7]Mail-in votes only had to be received by November 13 for them to be counted, and counting had to be completed by November 18.[8] As a result, Alaska was called for Trump on November 11.[9] He won the state by 10.06%, the closest margin in the state since1992. Biden received the highest percentage of the vote for a Democrat in the state since 1964. It was also the second time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote in the state since1968, the first beingBarack Obama in2012.[10]

Alaska shifted 4.67% to the Democratic nominee compared to the 2016 election. The state ultimately weighed in as 14.51 percentage points more Republican than the national average in 2020. Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to winAnchorage sinceLyndon B. Johnson in1964, and the first Democrat to receive a majority inHaines Borough since 1964.

Primary elections

[edit]

Canceled Republican primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 21, 2019, theAlaska Republican Party became one of several stateRepublican parties to officially cancel their respectiveprimaries andcaucuses. The party argued that a primary would be useless with an incumbent Republican president.[11]

Of the 29 total delegates, 3 is allocated to the at-large congressional district, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 are allocated to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 13 bonus delegates were allocated.

The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in theirwalking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district conventions were held on the four consecutive Saturdays from February 8 to 29 to select delegates to the Alaska State Republican Convention. At the Alaska State Republican Convention, which took place from April 2 to April 4, 2020, the state party formally bound all 29 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[12]

The 26 pledged delegates Alaska sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of theNational Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Alaska Republican Party.

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary

The Alaska Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 23, due to concerns over theCOVID-19 pandemic, theAlaska Democratic Party canceled in-person voting, but extended mail-in voting to April 10.[13]

This section is an excerpt from2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary § AKresults.[edit]
2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary final results[14]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[15]
Joe Biden10,83454.838
Bernie Sanders(withdrawn)8,75544.317
Inactive votes[a]1700.86
Total19,759100%15

Libertarian nominee

[edit]

No contest was held for theLibertarian Party's nomination in the state ofAlaska. At the2020 Libertarian National Convention, the Alaskan delegates cast their votes forGeorgia politicianJohn Monds, but on the third and fourth ballots voted forJo Jorgensen, psychology senior lecturer atClemson University. Jorgensen would become the party's nominee after being elected on the fourth ballot, her running mate beingentrepreneur andpodcasterSpike Cohen.[16][17]

General election

[edit]

Issues

[edit]

Several of Trump's environmental policies involved loosening restrictions on energy, hunting, and mining in Alaska: he instructed theDepartment of Agriculture to exemptTongass National Forest from logging restrictions;[18] supported the construction ofPebble Mine, an unpopular[19]gold andcopper mine inBristol Bay (though the permit was ultimately denied);[20] rolled back limits on hunters infederal land in Alaska;[21] andopened theArctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.[22] While these policies expanded their respective industries, they were met with opposition among environmental groups and theGwich'in, whose sacred land is partly within the refuge.[23][24] Biden pledged to reverse several of Trump's climate policies[25] and address theclimate crisis, and he enacted a temporary moratorium on gas and oil leasing in the ANWR after beinginaugurated on January 20, 2021.[26]

Trump's environmental and gun policy also included reviving hunting techniques in Alaska, an action condemned by several animal rights groups.[27]

Final predictions

[edit]
SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[28]Likely R
Inside Elections[29]Lean R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30]Likely R
Politico[31]Lean R
RCP[32]Likely R
Niskanen[33]Tossup
CNN[34]Solid R
The Economist[35]Likely R
CBS News[36][b]Likely R
270towin[37]Likely R
ABC News[38]Lean R
NPR[39][c]Lean R
NBC News[40]Likely R
538[41]Likely R

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

%support01020304050608/9/20197/31/202010/14/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[d]
Margin
270 to Win[42]October 6 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202043.8%49.4%6.8%Trump +5.6
FiveThirtyEight[43]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202043.6%51.2%5.2%Trump +7.7
Average43.7%50.3%6.0%Trump +6.7

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020634 (LV)± 5%54%[f]45%
Gravis Marketing[45]Oct 26–28, 2020770 (LV)± 3.5%52%43%5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44]Oct 1–28, 20201,147 (LV)54%44%
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[46][A]Oct 19–20, 2020800 (V)± 3.5%50%45%-5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[47]Oct 9–14, 2020423 (LV)± 5.7%45%39%8%2%[g]6%[h]
Patinkin Research Strategies[48]Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020600 (LV)± 4%49%46%3%[i]2%
Alaska Survey Research[49]Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020696 (LV)50%46%--4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44]Sep 1–30, 2020563 (LV)53%45%--2%
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska[50][B]Sep 20–23, 2020602 (LV)± 4%47%46%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44]Aug 1–31, 2020472 (LV)57%42%--1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44]Jul 1–31, 2020412 (LV)55%43%--2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[51][C]Jul 23–24, 2020885 (V)50%44%--6%
Public Policy Polling[52][j]Jul 7–8, 20201,081 (RV)± 3.0%48%45%--6%
Alaska Survey Research[53]Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2020663 (LV)± 3.9%49%48%--4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44]Jun 8–30, 2020161 (LV)52%46%--2%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54]Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019321 (LV)± 5.5%45%40%--15%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54]Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019321 (LV)± 5.5%45%31%24%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54]Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019321 (LV)± 5.5%48%30%23%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54]Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019321 (LV)± 5.5%45%38%17%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54]Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019321 (LV)± 5.5%48%32%20%

Fundraising

[edit]

According to theFederal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, of the candidates who were on the ballot,Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $1,487,277.13,[55]Joe Biden raised $1,321,242.60,[56] andJo Jorgensen raised $7,420.85[57] fromAlaska-based contributors.Don Blankenship,[58]Brock Pierce,[59] andRocky De La Fuente,[60] all of which were on the ballot, did not raise any money from the state.

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

In addition, write-in candidates were required to file a Declaration of Intent with the Alaska Division of Elections at least five days before the election. They were also obligated to file a financial disclosure statement. Write-in votes were not counted individually.[61][62] The following candidates were given write-in access:[63]

  • Dennis Andrew Ball / Richard A. Sanders, American Party of America – American National Committee
  • Barbara Ruth Bellar / Kendra Bryant, Republican
  • President R19 Boddie / Eric C. Stoneham, Independent
  • David C. Byrne / Tony N. Reed, C.C.U.S.A.
  • Brian T. Carroll /Amar Patel,American Solidarity
  • Todd Cella / Timothy Bryan "Tim" Cella, Independent
  • Mark Robert Charles / Adrian D. Wallace, Independent
  • Ryan Stephen Ehrenreich / Veronica Ehrenreich, Independent
  • Howard "Howie" Gresham Hawkins /Angela Nicola Walker,Socialist Party USA
  • Thomas "Tom" Hoefling / Andy Prior, Independent
  • Shawn W. Howard / Alyssa C. Howard, Independent
  • Dario David Hunter /Dawn Neptune Adams, Progressive
  • Joseph W. "Joe" McHugh / Elizabeth "Liz" Storm, Independent
  • Albert L. Raley / Darlene Raley, Republican
  • Deborah Ann "Debbie" Rouse / Sheila Maria Cannon, Independent
  • Jade Simmons / Claudeliah J. "CJ" Roze, Independent
  • Mary Ruth Caro Simmons / Sherrie Dow, Independent
  • Ajay Sood / Richard Mende, Independent
  • Sheila "Samm" Tittle / John Wagner, Independent
  • Kasey J. Wells / Rachel M. Wells, Independent
  • Kanye West /Michelle Tidball, Independent
  • Demetra Jefferson Wysinger / Cedric D. Jefferson, WXYZ New Day

Electoral slates

[edit]

The voters ofAlaska cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to theElectoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alaska is allocated 3 electors because it has 1congressional district and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as afaithless elector. In the state of Alaska, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[64][65]

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 14, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 3 pledged electors from Alaska cast their votes forPresidentDonald Trump andVice PresidentMike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective state capitals (the District of Columbia electors meet within the District). The electoral vote wastabulated and certified by Congress in ajoint session on January 6, 2021, per theElectoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[66]

Donald Trump andMike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden andKamala Harris
Democratic Party
Jo Jorgensen andSpike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Jesse Ventura andCynthia McKinney
Green Party
Don Blankenship andWilliam Mohr
Constitution Party
Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard
Independent
Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson
Alliance
John Binkley
Judy Eledge
Randy Ruedrich
Paul Kelly
Frances Degnan
Cindy Spanyers
none listedRobert Shields
Lenin Lau
Josh Hadley
Samuel Smith
Rebecca Anderson
William Topel
Arenz Thigpen Jr.
Roderick Butler
John Ray
Ross Johnston
Marie Motschman
Anne Begle-Shedlock

Delay in results

[edit]

As expected, there was a nationwide delay in reporting election results, due to the extreme influx ofabsentee andmail-in ballots as a public health measure in response to theCOVID-19 pandemic.[67] In Alaska, these delays were especially severe. Alaska mailed absentee ballot applications to every voter aged 65 and over.[68] Mail-in ballots only needed to bepostmarked by Election Day and received by November 13 (November 18 foroverseas voters), further delaying the count.[69] Only early votes cast before October 29 and Election Day votes would be released on Election Night and the state could not even begin the counting of absentee ballots nor the remaining early votes until November 10.[68] Counting was expected to be complete by November 18. By November 4, the state still had at least 122,233 absentee ballots to count.[70][71] Alaska andNew York are the only two states to begin counting absentee ballots after Election Day.[72] Gail Felunumiai, Alaska's Director of Elections, attributed the delay to the need to verify that voters who voted by mail and also at their polling places did not have their ballots counted twice.[73]

The delay in counting left many races undecided for weeks.[74] The extreme rural nature of the state only worsened the delay: with many local communities being accessible only by boat or plane, seven communities had to vote entirely by absentee ballots in the primary due to a last-minute shortage of election workers.[73] TheAssociated Press called the race for Trump on November 11 at 12:16 PMEST (8:16 AMAKST),[9][75] 4 days afterPresident-elect Biden won the national election.

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Alaska[66][76]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
189,95152.83%+1.55%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
153,77842.77%+6.23%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
8,8972.47%−3.41%
GreenJesse Ventura[k]
Cynthia McKinney
2,6730.74%−1.06%
ConstitutionDon Blankenship
William Mohr
1,1270.31%−0.90%
IndependentBrock Pierce
Karla Ballard
8250.23%N/A
AllianceRocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
3180.09%N/A
Write-in1,9610.55%N/A
Total votes359,530100.00%+6.67%

By State House district

[edit]

Unlike every other U.S. state, Alaska is not divided intocounties orparishes. Rather, it isadministratively divided into 20boroughs: 19 organized and 1 unorganized, which act as county-equivalents.[3] TheUnorganized Borough lacks a borough government structure and itself is divided into eleven census areas.[77] Contrary to election results in most states, official results by borough are not available – rather, they are estimates based onprecinct-level data.[78] However, the Alaska Division of Elections does release official results byState House district, which are listed in the table below. Trump won 21 districts to Biden's 19. Biden also wonoverseas ballots. The 5th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, and 35th districts swung from voting for Donald Trump in2016 to Joe Biden in 2020.[79][80]

State House District[81]Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Jesse Ventura
Green
Don Blankenship
Constitution
Brock Pierce
Independent
Rocky De La Fuente
Alliance
Write-inMarginTotal votesRegistered votersVoter turnout
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
1 - Fairbanks3,51147.43%3,47746.97%2162.92%500.68%340.46%240.32%20.03%891.20%340.46%7,40313,92653.16%
2 - Fort Wainwright3,67459.54%2,10434.09%2874.65%300.49%180.29%140.23%90.15%350.57%1,57025.45%6,17111,99751.44%
3 - North Pole6,07671.89%1,90322.52%3163.74%420.50%270.32%130.15%80.09%670.79%4,17349.37%8,45214,87856.81%
4 - Goldstream4,69044.10%5,34550.25%3233.04%930.87%270.25%290.27%40.04%1251.18%-655-6.15%10,63615,27469.63%
5 - West Fairbanks4,07746.65%4,20448.11%2592.96%680.78%210.24%170.19%80.09%850.97%-127-1.46%8,73913,95862.61%
6 - Rural Interior5,77060.36%3,27234.23%2662.78%830.87%330.35%310.32%50.05%991.04%2,49826.13%9,55915,44461.89%
7 - Wasilla7,02772.35%2,21522.80%2722.80%540.56%360.37%130.13%50.05%910.94%4,81249.55%9,71316,69258.19%
8 - Knik7,61876.28%1,95319.56%2412.41%480.48%280.28%180.18%60.06%750.75%5,66556.72%9,98717,53156.97%
9 - Sutton-Valdez-Delta7,78770.17%2,76924.95%3012.71%770.69%390.35%160.14%40.04%1050.95%5,01845.22%11,09816,91765.60%
10 - Houston8,08171.64%2,72724.18%2862.54%640.57%220.20%190.17%60.05%750.66%5,35447.46%11,28017,57764.17%
11 - Palmer7,09666.14%3,13029.17%2692.51%880.82%220.21%170.16%60.06%1010.94%3,96636.97%10,72916,49165.06%
12 - Butte7,89369.66%2,95726.10%2882.54%540.48%280.25%150.13%30.03%920.81%4,93643.56%11,33016,54668.48%
13 - Chugiak4,65259.69%2,66634.21%3083.95%400.51%160.21%250.32%60.08%801.03%1,98625.48%7,79313,88856.11%
14 - Eagle River6,71457.94%4,26136.77%3563.07%500.43%460.40%100.09%60.05%1451.25%2,45321.17%11,58816,72669.28%
15 - JBER2,67147.48%2,62246.61%1973.50%360.64%100.18%130.23%100.18%671.19%490.87%5,62612,60744.63%
16 - Nunaka Valley3,51642.84%4,27452.08%2102.56%640.78%270.33%150.18%120.15%891.08%-758-9.24%8,20715,06754.47%
17 - UMed2,81038.42%4,13656.56%1842.52%640.88%180.25%180.25%90.12%741.01%-1,326-18.14%7,31313,30754.96%
18 - West Anchorage2,76035.33%4,68159.92%1572.01%791.01%240.31%150.19%40.05%921.18%-1,921-24.59%7,81214,18355.08%
19 - Mountain View1,97536.69%3,11857.92%1102.04%520.97%220.41%110.20%130.24%821.52%-1,143-21.23%5,38312,32843.66%
20 - Downtown Anchorage2,38331.35%4,88164.21%1532.01%530.70%80.11%150.20%40.05%1051.38%-2,498-32.86%7,60214,08653.97%
21 - Turnagain-Sand Lake3,69038.71%5,41456.79%2032.13%700.73%290.30%190.20%40.04%1041.09%-1,724-18.08%9,53314,63365.15%
22 - Jewel Lake4,68448.55%4,55347.20%2002.07%460.48%160.17%180.19%30.03%1271.32%1311.35%9,64715,07763.98%
23 - Campbell Creek3,65546.64%3,81048.62%1702.17%530.68%220.28%160.20%130.17%981.25%-155-1.98%7,83714,32554.71%
24 - East Anchorage5,37850.98%4,73644.89%2222.10%460.44%150.14%240.23%70.07%1221.16%6426.09%10,55015,07869.97%
25 - Abbott4,40746.88%4,60048.94%2012.14%670.71%210.22%140.15%150.16%750.80%-193-2.06%9,40015,17561.94%
26 - O'Malley-Huffman5,24351.26%4,55844.56%2072.02%550.54%230.22%230.22%20.02%1181.15%6856.70%10,22915,59165.61%
27 - Hillside4,32445.13%4,84450.55%2282.38%590.62%210.22%240.25%60.06%760.79%-520-5.42%9,58215,39062.26%
28 - Girdwood6,16247.76%6,26448.55%2191.70%690.53%160.12%160.12%30.02%1531.19%-102-0.79%12,90216,74377.06%
29 - Nikiski-Seward7,46468.96%2,98527.58%1901.76%690.64%260.24%100.09%30.03%760.70%4,47941.38%10,82316,29666.42%
30 - Kenai7,18069.97%2,63825.71%2702.63%420.41%260.25%170.17%30.03%860.84%4,54244.26%10,26216,78261.15%
31 - Homer6,97155.56%5,03740.15%2501.99%1000.80%270.22%180.14%70.06%1361.08%1,93415.41%12,54618,13269.19%
32 - Kodiak4,44052.89%3,50641.76%2382.84%1051.25%210.25%210.25%40.05%600.71%93411.13%8,39513,98660.02%
33 - Juneau3,05927.65%7,53568.11%1971.78%1030.93%270.24%250.23%90.08%1080.98%-4,476-40.46%11,06316,30667.85%
34 - Mendenhall4,54341.85%5,76353.09%2792.57%680.63%360.33%340.31%60.06%1271.17%-1,220-11.24%10,85616,03467.71%
35 - Sitka-Petersburg4,76946.71%5,01149.08%1701.67%950.93%350.34%160.16%60.06%1071.05%-242-2.37%10,20915,76664.75%
36 - Ketchikan5,11454.47%3,79640.43%2452.61%790.84%300.32%200.21%80.09%971.03%1,31814.04%9,38915,37561.07%
37 - Bristol Bay-Aleutians2,35845.09%2,56048.95%861.64%561.07%510.98%170.33%140.27%881.68%-202-3.86%5,23010,44750.06%
38 - Bethel1,73732.17%3,20259.30%1051.94%1122.07%520.96%611.13%300.56%1011.87%-1,465-27.13%5,40012,14544.46%
39 - Nome1,93932.26%3,58059.56%1232.05%1041.73%801.33%450.75%200.33%1202.00%-1,641-27.30%6,01112,14449.50%
40 - Kotzebue-Utqiagvik1,99442.63%2,31849.56%942.01%861.84%471.00%390.83%250.53%741.58%-324-6.93%4,67710,11846.22%
Overseas ballots[82]5913.47%37385.16%10.23%00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%51.14%-314-71.69%43868164.32%
Total189,95152.83%153,77842.77%8,8972.47%2,6730.74%1,1270.31%8250.23%3180.09%3,831[l]1.06%36,17310.06%361,400[l]595,64760.67%
Swing by borough and census area
Legend
  •   Democratic — +>15%
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by borough and census area
Legend
  •   Democratic — +>15%
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Borough and census area flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, an at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
At-large52.83%42.77%Don Young

Analysis

[edit]

Biden narrowly wonAnchorage, the state's largest city, outperforming local Democrats.[83] Biden was the first Democrat to win Anchorage since Johnson. This also made Trump the first candidate of either party to prevail in Alaska without winning Anchorage. James Brooks at theAnchorage Daily News attributed Trump's victory to strong performances in theKenai Peninsula andMatanuska-Susitna Borough.[83]

The election corresponded with the2020 United States Senate election in Alaska, with incumbent RepublicanDan Sullivan being successfully re-elected againstindependentAl Gross, who was also nominated and endorsed by the Democratic Party.[84] Sullivan won by a 12.71% margin, outperforming Trump by 2.65 percentage points, consistent with a nationwide trend where down-ballot Republicans outperformed Trump.[85] In theUnited States House of Representatives election in Alaska, incumbent RepublicanDon Young underperformed Trump by 0.92 percentage points against Democrat-endorsed independent Alyse Galvin.[86]

Associated Press exit polling

[edit]

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by theUniversity of Chicago for theAssociated Press interviewing 689 likely voters in Alaska, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[87]

2020 presidential election in Alaska by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[87]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrumpJorgensen% of

total vote

Total vote42.7752.832.47100
Ideology
Liberals937<129
Moderates5341526
Conservatives591345
Party
Democrats or lean Democrat972<138
Republicans or lean Republican690355
Independents4038146
Type of vote
Election Day2272537
Early in-person5147229
Mail5938134
Vote in 2016
Hillary Clinton981<130
Donald Trump592144
Someone else47331313
Did not vote14
Gender
Men3660453
Women5245147
Race/ethnicity
White4453272
Black3
Latino5
Other4649220
Age
18–29 years old15
30–44 years old4156227
45–64 years old3957438
65 and older4852<120
Religion
Protestant/OtherChristian2176243
Catholic12
Other4848116
None7424129
Sexual orientation
LGBT5
Heterosexual4057195
Education
High school or less24
Somecollege education orassociate degree3758240
College graduate5844723
Postgraduate degree5543<113
Total household income (2019)
Under $50,0005045323
$50,000–$99,9994352340
Over $100,0003860237
Union households
Yes28
No3959172
Veteran households
Yes52
No4547848
Area type
Urban5147121
Suburban3559430
Small town5046330
Rural3761<119

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
  2. ^CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  3. ^NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  4. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  8. ^Includes "Refused"
  9. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  10. ^Poll's funding crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
  11. ^abThe nationalGreen Party nominatedHowie Hawkins for President withAngela Nicole Walker as his running mate, but the Alaska state party chose Ventura and McKinney.
  12. ^abFor an unknown reason, the number ofwrite-in votes differs between the official statewide results and the officialState House district-level results. The former counts 1,961 and the latter 3,831. Results for all other candidates are identical between the two sources.

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  2. ^The Independent Alaska PAC supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ^AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period

References

[edit]
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Further reading

[edit]

External links

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