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2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
← 2016November 3, 20202022 →
 
NomineeMark KellyMartha McSally
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote1,716,4671,637,661
Percentage51.16%48.81%
County results
Congressional districts results
Precinct results
Kelly:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McSally:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Martha McSally[a]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

Elections in Arizona

The2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbentRepublican U.S. SenatorJohn McCain on August 25, 2018. GovernorDoug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. SenatorJon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. RepresentativeMartha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she wasdefeated byDemocratKyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced formerastronautMark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]

Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended morepurple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.

Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformedJoe Biden inthe concurrent presidential election, who defeated PresidentDonald Trump by a margin of 0.3% in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became thefirst Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat sinceCarl Hayden won his last term in1962.[8]

Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020, marking the first time since 1953 that Democrats held both of Arizona’s Senate seats.

Interim appointments

[edit]

Appointees

[edit]

Potential candidates not appointed

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign; however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)[19]
  • Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive[20]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally

U.S. presidents

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Primary results

[edit]
Results by county:
  McSally—80–90%
  McSally—70–80%
  McSally—60–70%
Republican primary results[48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMartha McSally (incumbent)551,11975.2%
RepublicanDaniel McCarthy181,55124.8%
RepublicanSean Lyons (write-in)210nil
Total votes732,880100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMark Kelly665,62099.9%
DemocraticBo Garcia (write-in)4510.1%
Total votes666,071100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.

Write-in candidates

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Primary results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianBarry Hess (write-in)32976.5%
LibertarianAlan White (write-in)10123.5%
Total votes430100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

General election write-in candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Republican

Democratic

Other

  • Christopher Beckett, veteran(Independent)[81]
  • William "Will" Decker(Independent)[81]
  • Matthew "Doc" Dorchester(Libertarian)[81]
  • Nicholas N. Glenn, Navy veteran and aerospace engineer(Independent Republican)[81]
  • Mathew Haupt(Independent)[81]
  • Benjamin Rodriguez(Independent)[81]
  • Joshua Rodriguez(Unity)[81]
  • Frank Saenz(Independent)[81]
  • Jim Stevens(Independent)[81]

Withdrawn

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[84]Lean D(flip)October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[85]Tilt D(flip)October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86]Lean D(flip)November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[87]Lean D(flip)October 30, 2020
Politico[88]Lean D(flip)November 2, 2020
RCP[89]TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ[90]Likely D(flip)November 3, 2020
538[91]Likely D(flip)November 2, 2020
Economist[92]Lean D(flip)November 2, 2020

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally (R)

Federal officials

Newspapers

Mark Kelly (D)

Federal officials

Organizations

Unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updatedMark KellyMartha McSallyMargin
270 to Win[105]November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.8%44.8%Kelly +5.0
Real Clear Politics[106]November 1, 2020November 3, 202050.5%44.8%Kelly +5.7
Average50.2%44.8%Kelly +5.4
Polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Mark
Kelly (D)		Other /
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters[107]October 27 – November 2, 2020610 (LV)± 4.5%44%53%4%[c]
Change Research/CNBC[108]October 29 – November 1, 2020409 (LV)± 4.9%47%51%2%[d]
NBC News/Marist[109]October 29 – November 1, 2020717 (LV)± 4.5%46%52%2%[e]
Swayable[110]October 27 – November 1, 2020333 (LV)± 7.2%45%55%–
Data for Progress[111]October 27 – November 1, 20201,195 (LV)± 2.8%46%54%0%[f]
Emerson College[112]October 29–31, 2020732 (LV)± 3.6%48%50%2%[g]
Morning Consult[113]October 22–31, 20201,059 (LV)± 3%44%48%–
Data Orbital[114]October 28–30, 2020550 (LV)± 4.2%46%47%7%[h]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[115]October 26–30, 20201,253 (LV)± 3%43%50%6%[i]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll[116]October 25–30, 2020910 (LV)± 3.1%43%46%11%[j]
CNN/SSRS[117]October 23–30, 2020892 (LV)± 4.0%45%51%5%[k]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[118]October 27–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%43%48%9%[l]
Gravis Marketing[119]October 26–28, 2020704 (LV)± 3.7%45%50%6%[m]
Ipsos/Reutuers[120]October 21–27, 2020714 (LV)± 4.2%44%51%5%[n]
Swayable[121]October 23–26, 2020286 (LV)± 7.4%44%56%–
Justice Collaborative Project (D)[122][A]October 22–25, 2020874 (LV)± 3.1%40%50%10%[o]
OH Predictive Insights[123]October 22–25, 2020716 (LV)± 3.7%45%50%4%[p]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[124]		October 17–25, 2020725 (RV)± 3.6%39%51%10%[q]
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[125]October 21–24, 2020729 (LV)± 3.6%46%53%2%[r]
Y2 Analytics[126]October 15–24, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%47%51%–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[127][B]October 19–22, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%50%47%4%[s]
Ipsos/Reuters[128]October 14–21, 2020658 (LV)± 4.4%43%51%5%[t]
Morning Consult[113]October 11–20, 20201,066 (LV)± 3%44%48%–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[129]October 18–19, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%44%46%10%[u]
Change Research/CNBC[130]October 16–19, 2020232 (LV)[v]–43%54%–
RMG Research[131]October 14–19, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%39%[w]49%15%[x]
37%[y]49%15%[x]
40%[z]44%15%[x]
Data Orbital[132]October 16–18, 2020550 (LV)± 4.2%42%48%10%[aa]
YouGov/CBS[133]October 13–16, 20201,074 (LV)± 4.1%41%52%7%[ab]
Ipsos/Reuters[134]October 7–14, 2020667 (LV)± 4.3%41%52%8%[ac]
Monmouth University[135]October 9–13, 2020502 (RV)± 4.4%42%52%5%[ad]
502 (LV)[ae]42%52%–
502 (LV)[af]45%51%–
Morning Consult[113]October 2–11, 20201,144 (LV)± 2.9%41%49%–
Trafalgar Group[136]October 6–9, 20201,045 (LV)± 3.0%45%47%7%[ag]
OH Predictive Insights[137]October 4–8, 2020608 (LV)± 4.0%45%50%6%[ah]
Ipsos/Reuters[138]September 29 – October 7, 2020663 (LV)± 4.3%41%51%8%[ai]
Latino Decisions (D)[139][C]September 28 – October 6, 2020600 (LV)± 4%42%47%7%[aj]
Basswood Research (R)[140][D]October 3–5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%4%[ak]
Data Orbital[141]October 3–5, 2020550 (LV)± 4.2%44%49%7%[al]
HighGround Inc.[142][1]September 28 – October 5, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%44%50%7%[am]
Change Research/CNBC[143]October 2–4, 2020296 (LV)–43%51%6%[an]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[144]October 1–3, 2020655 (LV)± 4.2%39%50%11%[ao]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)[145]October 1–3, 2020604 (LV)± 3.8%45%50%5%[ap]
Targoz Market Research[146]September 23 – October 2, 20201,045 (LV)± nil41%51%8%
Morning Consult[147]September 22 – October 1, 20201,048 (LV)± 3%38%[aq]51%10%[ar]
Suffolk University[148]September 26–30, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%40%49%11%[as]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[149][B]September 25–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%45%48%–
Data for Progress (D)[150]September 23–28, 2020808 (LV)± 3.4%42%51%7%[aj]
Morning Consult[151]September 19–28, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%36%53%10%[at]
Data For Progress[152][E]September 15–22, 2020481 (LV)± 4.4%38%47%15%[au]
Change Research/CNBC[153]September 18–20, 2020262 (LV)–43%51%6%[av]
ABC News/Washington Post[154]September 15–20, 2020579 (LV)± 4.5%48%49%3%[aw]
Morning Consult[155]September 11–20, 2020907 (LV)± 3%[ax]40%49%–
Hart Research Associates (D)[156][F]September 17–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%43%55%–
Ipsos/Reuters[157]September 11–17, 2020565 (LV)± 4.7%41%50%8%[ay]
Morning Consult[158]September 8–17, 2020900 (LV)[v]± (2% – 4%)41%[ax]48%–
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[159][G]September 14–16, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%46%48%6%[m]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[160]September 12–16, 2020855 (LV)± 3.4%35%53%13%[az]
Monmouth University[161]September 11–15, 2020420 (RV)± 4.8%44%50%5%[ad]
420 (LV)[ae]46%50%4%[ba]
420 (LV)[af]48%49%4%[ba]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[162]September 10–15, 2020653 (LV)± 4.1%42%50%8%[bb]
Morning Consult[151]September 5–14, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%38%50%13%[bc]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)[145]September 10–13, 2020679 (LV)± 3.8%45%50%5%[ap]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[163]August 29 – September 13, 20201,298 (RV)± 3.0%36%44%20%[bd]
Gravis Marketing[164]September 10–11, 2020684 (LV)± 3.8%43%48%9%[be]
YouGov/CBS[165]September 9–11, 20201,106 (LV)± 3.9%42%49%9%[bf]
OH Predictive Insights[166]September 8–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4%42%52%6%[bg]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[167][H]August 28 – September 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%45%48%7%[bh]
Change Research/CNBC[168]September 4–6, 2020470 (LV)± 4.6%45%51%4%[bi]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169]August 30 – September 4, 2020830 (LV)± 3.4%38%53%8%[bj]
Morning Consult[151]August 26 – September 4, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%39%50%11%[bk]
FOX News[170]August 29 – September 1, 2020772 (LV)± 3.5%39%56%5%[bl]
853 (RV)± 3.0%38%55%6%[bm]
Basswood Research (R)[171][D]August 29–31, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%4%[ak]
Morning Consult[151]August 16–25, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%35%53%13%[bc]
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[172]August 16–18, 2020856 (LV)± 3.4%34%53%12%[bn]
Morning Consult[151]August 6–15, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%43%46%11%[bk]
Emerson College[173]August 8–10, 2020661 (LV)± 3.8%41%52%7%[aj]
Change Research/CNBC[174]August 7–9, 2020428 (LV)± 4.6%43%49%8%[bo]
Morning Consult[151]July 27 – August 5, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%38%49%13%[bp]
OH Predictive Insights[175]August 3–4, 2020603 (LV)± 4.0%43%48%9%[bq]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[176][I]August 2–4, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%4%[ak]
Data for Progress[177]July 24 – August 2, 20201,215 (LV)± 3.2%40%50%10%[br]
Change Research/CNBC[178]July 24–26, 2020365 (LV)± 4.8%45%47%8%
Morning Consult[179]July 17–26, 2020908 (LV)± 3.0%36%[aq]52%13%
CNN/SSRS[180]July 18–24, 2020873 (RV)± 3.8%43%50%7%[bs]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[181]July 19–23, 2020858 (LV)± 3.2%35%53%13%[bt]
Morning Consult[151]July 14–23, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%39%49%12%[bu]
Public Policy Polling[182]July 21–22, 2020816 (V)± 3.2%42%51%7%[aj]
NBC News/Marist[183]July 14–22, 2020826 (RV)± 4.1%41%53%6%[bv]
Spry Strategies (R)[184][J]July 11–16, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%41%48%11%[bw]
Change Research/CNBC[185]July 10–12, 2020345 (LV)± 4.6%45%52%3%[bx]
CBS News/YouGov[186]July 7–10, 20201,087 (LV)± 3.8%42%46%12%[by]
OH Predictive Insights[187]July 6–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%43%52%6%[bz]
Data Orbital[188]June 27–29, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%43%50%7%[ca]
Gravis Marketing (R)[189][K]June 27, 2020527 (LV)± 4.3%46%42%12%[cb]
Change Research/CNBC[190]June 26–28, 2020311 (LV)[v]± 5.8%44%53%3%[cc]
Global Strategy Group (D)[191]June 19–24, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%42%49%9%
Change Research (D)[192][L]June 20–23, 2020946 (LV)± 3.2%42%50%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[193]June 14–17, 2020865 (LV)± 3.3%34%49%17%[cd]
NYT Upshot/Siena College[194]June 8–16, 2020650 (RV)± 4.3%38%47%16%[ce]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[195]June 13–15, 20201,368 (RV)± 2.9%42%51%7%[cf]
FOX News[196]May 30 – June 2, 20201,002 (RV)± 3.9%37%50%13%[cg]
HighGround Public Affairs[197]May 18–22, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%41%51%8%[ch]
OH Predictive Insights[198]May 9–11, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%38%51%10%[o]
OH Predictive Insights[199]April 7–8, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%42%51%8%[ci]
NBC News/Marist[200]March 10–15, 20202,523 (RV)± 2.7%45%48%7%
Monmouth University[201]March 11–14, 2020847 (RV)± 3.4%44%50%6%
Univision/Arizona State University[202]March 6–11, 20201,036 (RV)± 3.0%36%48%16%
OH Predictive Insights[203]March 3–4, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%42%49%9%[bq]
Public Policy Polling[204]March 2–3, 2020666 (V)± 3.8%42%47%12%
HighGround Public Affairs[205]February 7–9, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%39%46%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[206][G]January 22–24, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%47%45%8%
Public Policy Polling[207]January 2–4, 2020760 (V)± 3.6%42%46%12%
OH Predictive Insights[208]December 3–4, 2019628 (LV)± 3.9%44%47%9%[cj]
Emerson College[209]October 25–28, 2019904 (RV)± 3.2%45%46%9%
Change Research (D)[210]September 27–28, 2019856 (RV)± 3.3%45%47%8%
Bendixen & Amandi International[211]September 9–12, 2019520 (RV)± 4.3%42%42%16%
OH Predictive Insights[212]August 13–14, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%13%[ck]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[213]July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%44%11%[cl]
OH Predictive Insights[214]May 1–2, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%44%11%[cm]
OH Predictive Insights[215]February 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%46%44%10%[o]
Hypothetical polling

with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Daniel
McCarthy (R)		Mark
Kelly (D)		Other /
Undecided
Change Research[216][L]June 20–23, 2020946 (LV)± 3.2%44%50%6%

with Ruben Gallego

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[215]February 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%49%41%10%[o]

on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		YesNoOther /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[213]July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%39%45%16%[cn]
Public Policy Polling[217][2]January 24–25, 2019682 (V)–40%54%6%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[137]October 4–8, 2020608 (LV)± 4.0%45%45%10%[co]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[218]September 23 – October 2, 20201,045 (LV)± 3.0%44%42%14%[cp]
Data For Progress[152][M]September 15–22, 2020481 (LV)± 4.4%45%42%15%[au]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[162]September 10–15, 2020653 (LV)± 4.1%44%50%6%[cq]
Emerson College[173]August 8–10, 2020661 (LV)± 3.8%41%46%13%[cr]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[176][I]August 2–4, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%43%43%14%[cs]
Climate Nexus[219]Feb 11–15, 2020539 (RV)± 4.3%44%44%12%[ct]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[206][G]Jan 22–24, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%45%6%[cu]
OH Predictive Insights[208]December 3–4, 2019628 (LV)± 3.9%44%44%11%[cv]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[213]July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%42%43%14%[cw]
OH Predictive Insights[220]February 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%39%17%[cx]

Results

[edit]
2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona[221]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticMark Kelly1,716,46751.16%+10.41%
RepublicanMartha McSally (incumbent)1,637,66148.81%−4.90%
Write-in1,1890.03%-0.03%
Total votes3,355,317100.0%
Democraticgain fromRepublican

By county

[edit]
By county
CountyMark Kelly
Democratic		Martha McSally
Republican		Write-inMarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%
Apache24,05068.4711,05231.47220.0612,99837.0135,124
Cochise24,84341.3535,21458.61290.05-10,371-17.2660,086
Coconino45,56162.5427,25537.41290.0418,30625.1372,845
Gila9,64835.0217,88964.94110.04-8,241-29.9127,548
Graham4,50630.4210,30369.5540.03-5,797-39.1314,813
Greenlee1,40338.652,22561.2920.06-822-22.663,630
La Paz2,49234.004,83565.9720.03-2,343-31.977,329
Maricopa1,064,39651.94984,20348.036980.0380,1933.912,049,297
Mohave27,41426.6675,35973.29490.05-47,945-46.63102,822
Navajo24,39647.4926,95252.47210.04-2,556-4.9851,369
Pima309,14259.84207,31740.131520.03101,82519.71516,611
Pinal79,11443.18104,04856.78760.04-24,934-13.61183,238
Santa Cruz13,68970.655,68529.3420.018,00441.3119,376
Yavapai51,85236.4990,18063.47570.04-38,328-26.97142,089
Yuma33,96149.1335,14450.84150.02-1,183-1.7169,120
Totals1,716,46751.161,637,66148.811,1890.0378,8262.353,355,317

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[222]

By congressional district

[edit]

Kelly won five of nine congressional districts.[223]

DistrictMcSallyKellyRepresentative
1st48%52%Tom O'Halleran
2nd44%56%Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd35%65%Raúl Grijalva
4th67%33%Paul Gosar
5th56%44%Andy Biggs
6th52%48%David Schweikert
7th24%76%Ruben Gallego
8th57%43%Debbie Lesko
9th38%62%Greg Stanton

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^In December 2018, McSally was appointed by GovernorDoug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of SenatorJohn McCain and the resignation of SenatorJon Kyl.
  2. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  4. ^"Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  5. ^"Other" and Undecided with 1%
  6. ^"Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  7. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^"Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  9. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  10. ^"Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
  11. ^"None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. ^"Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  13. ^abUndecided with 6%
  14. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  15. ^abcdUndecided with 10%
  16. ^"Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  17. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  18. ^Undecided with 2%
  19. ^"Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  20. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  21. ^"Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
  22. ^abcAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  23. ^Standard VI response
  24. ^abc"Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
  25. ^Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  26. ^Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  27. ^"Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  28. ^"Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  29. ^"Some other candidate" and Undecided with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  30. ^ab"No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  31. ^abWith a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  32. ^abWith a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  33. ^"Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  34. ^"Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  35. ^"Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  36. ^abcdUndecided with 7%
  37. ^abcUndecided with 4%
  38. ^"Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  39. ^"Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  40. ^Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
  41. ^Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  42. ^abUndecided with 5%
  43. ^abOverlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  44. ^"Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  45. ^"Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  46. ^"Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
  47. ^abUndecided with 15%
  48. ^Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  49. ^"Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  50. ^abOverlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  51. ^"Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  52. ^"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  53. ^ab"Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  54. ^Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  55. ^ab"Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  56. ^"Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
  57. ^Undecided with 9%
  58. ^"Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  59. ^"Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  60. ^"Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  61. ^Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  62. ^"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  63. ^ab"Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  64. ^"Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  65. ^"Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  66. ^"Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  67. ^Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  68. ^"Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
  69. ^ab"Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  70. ^"No one" with 10%
  71. ^"None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  72. ^"Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  73. ^"Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  74. ^"Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  75. ^"Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
  76. ^Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  77. ^Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  78. ^Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  79. ^Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
  80. ^Undecided with 12%
  81. ^Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  82. ^Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  83. ^Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  84. ^"Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
  85. ^Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  86. ^"Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
  87. ^"Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  88. ^"Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  89. ^"Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  90. ^Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
  91. ^"Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  92. ^Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
  93. ^"Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  94. ^"Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
  95. ^"Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  96. ^Undecided with 13%
  97. ^Undecided with 14%
  98. ^"Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  99. ^"Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
  100. ^"Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  101. ^"Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
  102. ^"Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ^The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. ^abThe American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
  3. ^This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. ^abPoll sponsored by theAmerican Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
  5. ^Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ^Poll sponsored by theHuman Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. ^abcPoll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  8. ^Poll sponsored byAARP.
  9. ^abHeritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  10. ^This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^Polling was sponsored byOANN.
  12. ^abThis poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  13. ^Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.

References

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