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2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with2020 Alaska Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2014November 3, 20202026 →
 
NomineeDan SullivanAl Gross
PartyRepublicanIndependent[a]
AllianceDemocratic[a]
Popular vote191,112146,068
Percentage53.90%41.19%
State house district results
Borough and census area results
Precinct results
Sullivan:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gross:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70-80%     >80%
Tie:     40–50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elections in Alaska

The2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Alaska, concurrently with thenationwide presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate and local elections. IncumbentRepublican SenatorDan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeatingDemocratic nomineeAl Gross, the son ofAvrum Gross, who ran as anindependent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of theAlaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dan Sullivan

U.S. federal officials

Individuals

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDan Sullivan (incumbent)65,257100.00%
Total votes65,257100.00%

Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary

[edit]

Candidates from theAlaska Democratic Party, theAlaska Libertarian Party, and theAlaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[12]

Democratic candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Disqualified from the ballot

[edit]
  • Larry N. Barnes (independent)[8][b]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[8]

Alaskan Independence candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[14]

Endorsements

[edit]
Al Gross

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
IndependentAl Gross50,04779.87%
DemocraticEdgar Blatchford5,4638.72%
IndependenceJohn Howe4,1656.65%
IndependentChristopher Cumings2,9894.77%
Total votes62,664100.00%

Other candidates

[edit]

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Independent

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[31][32]

General election

[edit]

Issues

[edit]

Pebble Mine

[edit]

Before the election, theTrump administration considered granting a permit for the construction ofPebble Mine, acopper,gold, andmolybdenum mine inBristol Bay.[33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns.[34][35] In September 2020,recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition.[36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supported Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine.[37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition.[38]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[39]Lean ROctober 29, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[40]Likely RNovember 2, 2020
Economist[41]Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos[42]Lean ROctober 30, 2020
DDHQ[43]Lean RNovember 3, 2020
Inside Elections[44]Lean ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45]Lean RNovember 2, 2020
RCP[46]Lean ROctober 23, 2020
Politico[47]Lean RNovember 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

[edit]
Dan Sullivan (R)

U.S. federal officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Al Gross (I)

U.S. senators

State executives

Organizations

Unions

Polls

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Dan
Sullivan (R)		Al
Gross (I)		John
Howe (AI)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing[62]October 26–28, 2020770 (LV)± 3.5%48%45%––7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[63][A]October 19–20, 2020800 (V)± 3.5%44%41%5%–10%
Change Research (I)[64][B]October 16–19, 20201,076 (LV)± 4%47%44%3%–5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[65]October 9–14, 2020423 (LV)± 5.7%45%37%10%2%[d]7%[e]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B]October 10–13, 2020606 (LV)± 4%46%47%–––
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B]October 2–6, 2020600 (LV)–46%46%–––
Patinkin Research Strategies[67]September 30 – October 4, 2020600 (LV)± 4%46%47%–2%[f]5%
Alaska Survey Research[68]September 26 – October 4, 2020696 (LV)–48%44%––8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[69][C]September 20–23, 2020602 (LV)± 4%46%45%–––
Public Policy Polling (D)[70][1]August 27–28, 2020638 (V)± 3.9%43%43%––14%
Public Policy Polling[71][D]July 7–8, 20201,081 (V)± 3.0%39%34%––27%
Alaska Survey Research[72]June 23 – July 7, 2020663 (LV)± 3.8%53%40%––7%
Hypothetical polling

with Forrest Dunbar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Dan
Sullivan (R)		Forrest
Dunbar (D)		Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies[73]May 28 – Jun 4, 2019500 (LV)–39%39%22%

with Forrest Dunbar as an independent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Dan
Sullivan (R)		Forrest
Dunbar (I)		Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies[73]May 28 – June 4, 2019500 (LV)–42%40%19%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States Senate election in Alaska[74]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDan Sullivan (incumbent)191,11253.90%+5.94%
IndependentAl Gross[a]146,06841.19%−4.64%
IndependenceJohn Howe16,8064.74%N/A
Write-in6010.17%−0.32%
Total votes354,587100.0%
Republicanhold

By state house district

[edit]
By state house district
District[75]Dan Sullivan
Republican		Al Gross
Independent		John Howe
Independence		Write-inMarginTotal
votes		Representative
#%#%#%#%#%
District 13,48748.363,29345.674145.74160.221942.697,210Bart LeBon
District 23,379'59.751,89533.513726.5890.161,48426.245,655Steve M. Thompson
District 36,00472.321,81021.804805.7880.104,19450.528,302Mike Prax
District 44,81745.695,30150.284073.86170.16-484-4.5910,542Grier Hopkins
District 54,18848.494,10447.523323.84130.15840.978,637Adam Wool
District 65,60160.873,06833.345185.63150.162,53316.669,202Mike Cronk
District 76,75270.902,18522.945635.91230.244,56747.969,523Christopher Kurka
District 87,25373.861,98020.165745.84130.135,27353.709,820Kevin J. McCabe
District 97,58269.532,78625.555194.76170.164,79643.9810,904George Rauscher
District 107,73569.722,74224.715985.39200.184,99345.0011,095David Eastman
District 117,05166.633,04728.794764.5080.084,00437.8410,582DeLena Johnson
District 127,87770.732,82425.364253.82110.105,05345.3711,137Cathy Tilton
District 134,68462.752,40032.153724.9880.112,28430.607,464Ken McCarty
District 147,11462.233,89434.064153.6390.083,22028.1711,432Kelly Merrick
District 152,61348.612,44945.563085.7350.091643.055,375David Nelson
District 163,54543.874,11050.874105.07150.19-565-6.998,080Ivy Spohnholz
District 172,90340.423,95155.013154.39130.18-1,048-14.597,182Andy Josephson
District 182,80736.634,55359.412893.77140.18-1,746-22.787,663Harriet Drummond
District 191,87635.733,04658.013105.90190.36-1,170-22.285,251Geran Tarr
District 202,52633.954,65762.592433.27140.19-2,131-28.647,440Zack Fields
District 213,98042.215,14154.522963.14120.13-1,161-12.319,429Matt Claman
District 224,97752.164,20244.043363.52260.277757.919,541Sara Rasmussen
District 233,73448.383,63847.143354.34110.14961.247,718Chris Tuck
District 245,83555.874,36341.782382.2870.071,47214.1010,443Thomas McKay
District 254,55649.074,36747.033503.77120.131892.049,285Calvin Schrage
District 265,65155.954,17241.312672.64100.101,47914.6410,100Laddie Shaw
District 274,53447.76{4,60848.543423.6090.09-74-0.789,493Liz Snyder
District 286,75352.835,77645.182441.91100.089777.6412,783James D. Kaufman
District 297,23767.862,92327.414974.6670.074,31440.4510,664Ben Carpenter
District 307,03470.062,50224.924854.83190.194,53245.1410,040Ron Gillham
District 316,76354.845,04940.944984.04230.191,71413.9012,333Sarah Vance
District 324,30952.493,44942.014385.34130.1686010.488,209Louise Stutes
District 333,07428.207,46368.473413.13210.19-4,389-40.2710,899Sara Hannan
District 344,66743.575,60852.354273.99100.09-941-8.7810,712Andi Story
District 354,38843.845,00449.995985.97200.20-616-6.1510,010Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
District 365,00554.423,67940.004955.38180.201,32614.429,197Dan Ortiz
District 372,39347.172,30345.403667.21110.22901.775,073Bryce Edgmon
District 381,69832.072,97256.1361011.52150.28-1,274-24.065,295Tiffany Zulkosky
District 392,40341.032,70146.1269911.93540.92-298-5.095,857Neal Foster
District 402,27549.561,70637.1759412.94150.3356912.404,590Josiah Patkotak
Totals191,11253.90146,06841.1916,8064.746010.1745,04412.70354,587

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcGross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party, and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee.[1]
  2. ^Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^Includes "Refused"
  6. ^"Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. ^abcPoll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  3. ^Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ^Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ab"Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat".Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  2. ^Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020)."Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedAugust 29, 2020.
  3. ^"Alaska Division of Elections".www.elections.alaska.gov. Archived fromthe original on December 23, 2020. RetrievedAugust 20, 2020.
  4. ^Burns, Katelyn (October 22, 2020)."Al Gross is hoping to ride Alaska's independent streak to the Senate".Vox. RetrievedApril 30, 2021.
  5. ^Nat Herz [@Nat_Herz] (October 18, 2020)."New Alaska poll by Patinkin Research Strategies (not sure who paid but they are doing work for Yes on 2 in AK) has Al Gross up 47–46 and Trump up 49–46 Unclear how exactly they included 3rd party candidates, which may account for difference bw this+recent NYT poll. #AKleg #AKsen" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  6. ^"SULLIVAN, DAN – Candidate overview".FEC.gov. January 2019.
  7. ^McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020)."Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map".TheWell News. Archived fromthe original on September 13, 2020. RetrievedMay 15, 2020.
  8. ^abcde"Alaska Division of Elections".www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Archived fromthe original on March 30, 2017. RetrievedJune 2, 2020.
  9. ^"President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska".KTUU. December 18, 2019. RetrievedDecember 30, 2019.
  10. ^"Mark Levin Audio Rewind – 10/20/20".Apple Podcasts. RetrievedNovember 1, 2020.
  11. ^ab"Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report – Official Results"(PDF).
  12. ^Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018)."Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker".Anchorage Daily News.
  13. ^"Alaska – Senate".FEC. RetrievedMay 17, 2020.
  14. ^"John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate".KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
  15. ^"AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority".Daily Kos.
  16. ^ab"Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements".Humanity Forward. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2020. RetrievedAugust 13, 2020.
  17. ^"Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund".314 Action. Archived fromthe original on April 4, 2020. RetrievedNovember 27, 2019.
  18. ^"Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections". Archived fromthe original on September 19, 2020. RetrievedAugust 20, 2020.
  19. ^Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019)."Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate".KTVA. Archived fromthe original on October 14, 2019. RetrievedOctober 14, 2019.
  20. ^"DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race".DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  21. ^Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020)."End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision".End Citizens United.
  22. ^"Al Gross (I, AK Sen)".J Street PAC. Archived fromthe original on September 13, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  23. ^"2020 Endorsements". Archived fromthe original on July 26, 2020. RetrievedJuly 26, 2020.
  24. ^"Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project".Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project. July 29, 2020.
  25. ^"AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate".www.aaos.org.
  26. ^"2020 Endorsements".www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived fromthe original on April 12, 2020. RetrievedMarch 29, 2020.
  27. ^"Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate".Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  28. ^ab"Alaska".Politics1. RetrievedMay 17, 2020.
  29. ^abc"November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List".www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Archived fromthe original on October 28, 2020. RetrievedOctober 30, 2020.
  30. ^Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020)."Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries".KTUU. RetrievedAugust 21, 2020.
  31. ^Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019)."Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter".Must Read Alaska. RetrievedMay 15, 2020.
  32. ^"Identification Number: C00705293"(PDF).FEC. May 29, 2019. RetrievedJune 2, 2020.
  33. ^Ruskin, Liz (November 25, 2020)."Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska".NPR. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2024.
  34. ^Laine, Welch (June 30, 2020)."Alaska salmon: Bristol Bay opens with Pebble Mine decision pending".National Fisherman. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2024.
  35. ^DeMarban, Alex (August 24, 2020)."Pebble mine would cause 'significant degradation' in Bristol Bay region and can't be permitted as proposed, Trump administration says".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2024.
  36. ^DeMarban, Alex (September 22, 2020)."In recordings, Pebble executives discuss influence with Gov. Mike Dunleavy and one day expanding the mine".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2024.
  37. ^DeMarban, Alex; Wieber, Aubrey (September 25, 2020)."Sen. Sullivan says 'No Pebble mine' following release of secretly recorded videos of company executives and criticism by Gross".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2024.
  38. ^Wieber, Aubrey (October 11, 2020)."Sullivan and Gross battled it out on fisheries, Pebble Mine and Outside money in debut U.S. Senate debate".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2024.
  39. ^"2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  40. ^Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020)."Forecasting the race for the Senate".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on September 18, 2020. RetrievedSeptember 18, 2020.
  41. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. November 2, 2020. RetrievedMarch 13, 2021.
  42. ^"2020 Senate Race Ratings".Daily Kos Elections. RetrievedMarch 13, 2021.
  43. ^"2020 Senate Elections Model".Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2020.
  44. ^"2020 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  45. ^"2020 Senate race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMarch 12, 2021.
  46. ^"Battle for the Senate 2020".RCP. October 23, 2020.
  47. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  48. ^Senator Murkowski: More Than Ever, September 18, 2020
  49. ^Sweeney, Tara (October 25, 2020)."Sullivan has been a champion for rural Alaska".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedOctober 16, 2021.
  50. ^"BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate".Bering Straits. August 18, 2020.
  51. ^"PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election".Calista Corporation. Archived fromthe original on September 21, 2020. RetrievedAugust 23, 2020.
  52. ^"U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska".U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
  53. ^"Press Release: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election – Dan Sullivan for Alaska".dansullivanforalaska.com. Archived fromthe original on August 9, 2020. RetrievedAugust 23, 2020.
  54. ^Anchorage Daily News editorial board (October 31, 2020)."Sen. Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska's interests".Anchorage Daily News.
  55. ^Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020)."Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate".The Midnight Sun.
  56. ^"Home – AL GROSS – FIGHTING TO FLIP ALASKA BLUE". Archived fromthe original on December 5, 2020. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  57. ^Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020)."Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator".Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
  58. ^"DUH/PEP website".duh4all.org.
  59. ^"Our Endorsements".DMFI PAC.
  60. ^"NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate".nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
  61. ^"PACE Recommendations".NEA-Alaska. Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2020. RetrievedOctober 30, 2020.
  62. ^Gravis Marketing
  63. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  64. ^Change Research (I)
  65. ^Siena College/NYT Upshot
  66. ^abHarstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)
  67. ^Patinkin Research Strategies
  68. ^Alaska Survey Research
  69. ^Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)
  70. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  71. ^Public Policy Polling
  72. ^Alaska Survey Research
  73. ^abPatinkin Research Strategies
  74. ^"2020 General Election – Election Summary Report – Official Results"(PDF).Alaska Division of Elections. RetrievedDecember 2, 2020.
  75. ^"Alaska Senate Election Results 2020".National Election Pool.NBC News. March 31, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2022.

Further reading

[edit]

External links

[edit]

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