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| Turnout | 63.1% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsTuberville: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% >90% Jones: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent theState of Alabama, concurrently with the2020 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections. Incumbent senatorDoug Jones, first elected in a2017 special election in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facingTommy Tuberville in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016.[2]
Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponentRoy Moore.[3]
As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,[4][5][6][7] whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas'Blanche Lincoln in2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger sinceJoseph D. Tydings in1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose a general election in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. However, he outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections.
The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.[8][9]
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Stanley Adair | Mo Brooks | Bradley Byrne | Del Marsh | John Merrill | Arnold Mooney | Roy Moore | Ruth Page Nelson | Gary Palmer | Jeff Sessions | Tommy Tuberville | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence[63][A] | February 18–19, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | <1% | 5% | – | – | 29% | 32% | <1% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[64][A] | February 10–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | 1% | 6% | <1% | – | 34% | 29% | – | 15% |
| Harper Polling[65][B] | February 8–9, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 3.97% | – | – | 26% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 24% | – | 14% |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 29% | 2% | 16% |
| OnMessage[67][C] | January 13–15, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | 21% | – | – |
| OnMessage[68][C] | December 3–5, 2019 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 1% | – | 44% | 21% | – | 12% |
| Cherry Communications[69][D] | December 1–3, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | – | 12% | – | – | 1% | 8% | – | – | 35% | 31% | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence[70][A] | October 29–31, 2019 | 511 (V) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 11% | – | 6% | 2% | 11% | – | – | 36% | 23% | – | – |
| Cygnal[71] | October 10–12, 2019 | 536 (LV) | – | 1% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 2% | 11% | – | – | – | 32% | – | 28% |
| Tommy for Senate[72][E] | Released on October 5, 2019 | – (LV)[b] | – | 1% | – | 13% | – | 9% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 36% | – | 26% |
| Moore Information[73][F] | August 11–13, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | 13% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 33% | 3% | 17% |
| Cygnal[74] | June 22–23, 2019 | 612 (LV) | 4.0% | – | – | 21% | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | 29% | – | 22% |
| – | – | 13% | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 29% | 21% | – | – | ||||
| Moore Information[75][F] | June 10–11, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 16% | – | 7% | 2% | 18% | – | – | – | 23% | 6% | 28% |
| Mason-Dixon[76] | April 9–11, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | 18% | 13% | 4% | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | 2%[c] | 25% |
| Victory Phones[77][G] | Released in February 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 30% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | 27% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 239,616 | 33.39% | |
| Republican | Jeff Sessions | 227,088 | 31.64% | |
| Republican | Bradley Byrne | 178,627 | 24.89% | |
| Republican | Roy Moore | 51,377 | 7.16% | |
| Republican | Ruth Page Nelson | 7,200 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Arnold Mooney | 7,149 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Stanley Adair | 6,608 | 0.92% | |
| Total votes | 717,665 | 100.00% | ||
The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020,[79] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of theCOVID-19 pandemic.[80]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jeff Sessions | Tommy Tuberville | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn University at Montgomery[81] | July 2–9, 2020 | 558 (RV) | ± 6% | 31% | 47% | 22%[d] |
| OnMessage (R)[82][C] | May 26–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 43% | 49% | 8%[e] |
| FM3 Research (D)[83][H] | May 14–18, 2020 | – (LV)[b] | – | 32% | 54% | 14%[f] |
| Cygnal[84] | May 7–10, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.98% | 32% | 55% | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)[83][H] | March, 2020 | – (LV)[b] | – | 36% | 54% | 10%[g] |
| OnMessage (R)[85][C] | March 8–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Cygnal[86] | March 6–8, 2020 | 645 (LV) | + 3.86% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Moore Information Group[87][F] | March 5–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| WT&S Consulting[88] | March 5, 2020 | 1,234 (LV) | + 3.29% | 42% | 49% | 8%[e] |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Bradley Byrne and Gary Palmer
with Bradley Byrne and Jeff Sessions
with Mo Brooks and Bradley Byrne
with Mo Brooks and Roy Moore
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 334,675 | 60.73% | |
| Republican | Jeff Sessions | 216,452 | 39.27% | |
| Total votes | 551,127 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[97] | Lean R(flip) | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[98] | Lean R(flip) | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] | Likely R(flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[100] | Likely R(flip) | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[101] | Lean R(flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[102] | Likely R(flip) | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[103] | Safe R(flip) | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[104] | Likely R(flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[105] | Safe R(flip) | November 2, 2020 |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Tommy Tuberville (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable[116] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 294 (LV) | ± 8.5% | 42% | 58% | – | – |
| Data for Progress[117] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 56% | 0%[h] | – |
| Morning Consult[118] | October 22–31, 2020 | 850 (LV) | ± 3% | 39% | 51% | – | – |
| Auburn University At Montgomery[119] | October 23–28, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 54% | 3% | – |
| Swayable[120] | October 23–26, 2020 | 232 (LV) | ± 8.7% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
| Cygnal[121] | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 55% | – | 4% |
| Moore Information (R)[122][F] | October 11–14, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 55% | – | – |
| FM3 Research (D)[123][H] | October 11–14, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | – | 5%[i] |
| Auburn University at Montgomery[124] | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 54% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult[125] | September 11–20, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 34% | 52% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[126] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 52% | 4%[j] | 9% |
| Auburn University at Montgomery[127] | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | 44% | 7%[k] | 14% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[128][K] | June 29 – July 2, 2020 | 509 (LV)[l] | ± 3.8% | 40% | 50% | – | – |
| ALG Research (D)[129] | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[130] | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 50% | 2%[m] | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)[83][H] | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
With Jeff Sessions
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Jeff Sessions (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn University at Montgomery[132] | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 49% | 7%[n] | 1% |
| ALG Research (D)[129] | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[130] | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 35% | 45% | 3%[o] | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
With Bradley Byrne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Bradley Byrne (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon[90] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
With Arnold Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Arnold Mooney (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 34% | 25% |
With Roy Moore
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Roy Moore (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
With Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[76] | Apr 9–11, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
With Generic Opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[131] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 48%[L] | 18% |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal[121] | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 55% | 6% |
Margin swing by county| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 1,392,076 | 60.10% | +11.76% | |
| Democratic | Doug Jones (incumbent) | 920,478 | 39.74% | −10.23% | |
| Write-in | 3,891 | 0.17% | −1.06% | ||
| Total votes | 2,316,445 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | |||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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Tuberville won six of seven congressional districts.[135]
| District | Jones | Tuberville | Elected representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39% | 61% | Jerry Carl |
| 2nd | 38% | 62% | Barry Moore |
| 3rd | 36% | 64% | Mike Rogers |
| 4th | 21% | 79% | Robert Aderholt |
| 5th | 39% | 60% | Mo Brooks |
| 6th | 35% | 65% | Gary Palmer |
| 7th | 73% | 27% | Terri Sewell |
The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence ofDonald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes againstBrett Kavanaugh,Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in hisfirst impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in2017 waslargely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well inJefferson County andMontgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.
In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins inBirmingham andMontgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such asHuntsville,Mobile,Tuscaloosa andAuburn-Opelika, alongside several other small counties encircling theBlack Belt.[136] Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on sexual misconductallegations against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements.[137][138][139] With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020,[140] and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won byJoe Biden in the concurrent2020 presidential election, and his victories inJefferson County (Birmingham) andMontgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.
Partisan clients and other notes
Voter samples
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) shut the door on a potential Senate bid Friday morning in a local radio interview. "I will not be running for the U.S. Senate in 2020," Brooks said on WZRR-FM in Birmingham.
Official campaign websites
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