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All 27 Florida seats to theUnited States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 District results County results
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The2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 27U.S. representatives fromFlorida, one from each of the state's 27congressional districts. The elections coincided with the2020 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the House of Representatives,elections to theU.S. Senate, and variousstate andlocal elections.
In what was considered an upset, theRepublican Party retook the two seats that it lost to theDemocrats in2018, expanding its 14–13 majority to 16–11.[1][2]
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 Results by county Results by precinctGaetz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ehr: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district encompasses the westernPanhandle, and includes all ofEscambia,Okaloosa,Santa Rosa, andWalton counties, as well as part ofHolmes County. The district includes the cities ofPensacola,Fort Walton Beach, andNavarre. RepublicanMatt Gaetz, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Gaetz (incumbent) | 87,457 | 80.9 | |
| Republican | John Mills | 10,383 | 9.6 | |
| Republican | Greg Merk | 10,227 | 9.5 | |
| Total votes | 108,067 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[8] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Gaetz (incumbent) | 283,352 | 64.61% | ||
| Democratic | Phil Ehr | 149,172 | 34.01% | ||
| Independent | Albert Oram | 6,038 | 1.38% | ||
| Total votes | 438,532 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[16]
| Matt Gaetz Republican | Phil Ehr Democratic | Albert Oram Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Escambia | 93,078 | 55.10% | 73,582 | 43.56% | 2,268 | 1.34% | 19,496 | 11.54% | 168,928 |
| Holmes | 4,992 | 88.07% | 587 | 10.36% | 89 | 1.57% | 4,405 | 77.72% | 5,668 |
| Okaloosa | 78,035 | 67.93% | 34,966 | 30.44% | 1,877 | 1.63% | 43,069 | 37.49% | 114,878 |
| Santa Rosa | 75,075 | 70.87% | 29,483 | 27.83% | 1,380 | 1.30% | 45,592 | 43.04% | 105,938 |
| Walton | 32,172 | 74.56% | 10,554 | 24.46% | 424 | 0.98% | 21,618 | 50.10% | 43,150 |
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 Results by county Results by precinctDunn: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% O'Connor: 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district is located in northern Florida taking in portions of thePanhandle and theBig Bend, including all or parts of 19 counties. The district includes the cities ofPanama City,Marianna, andLake City. RepublicanNeal Dunn, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[21] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Neal Dunn (incumbent) | 305,337 | 97.86% | ||
| Independent | Kim O'Connor (write-in) | 6,662 | 2.14% | ||
| Total votes | 311,999 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[15]
| Neal Dunn Republican | Kim O'Connor Independent | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Bay | 76,997 | 98.26% | 1,366 | 1.74% | 75,631 | 96.51% | 78,363 |
| Calhoun | 5,662 | 99.74% | 15 | 0.26% | 5,647 | 99.47% | 5,677 |
| Columbia | 24,293 | 98.91% | 268 | 1.09% | 24,025 | 97.82% | 24,561 |
| Dixie | 6,993 | 99.42% | 41 | 0.58% | 6,952 | 98.83% | 7,034 |
| Franklin | 5,220 | 97.46% | 136 | 2.54% | 5,084 | 94.92% | 5,356 |
| Gilchrist | 8,484 | 99.11% | 76 | 0.89% | 8,408 | 98.22% | 8,560 |
| Gulf | 6,806 | 98.92% | 74 | 1.08% | 6,732 | 97.85% | 6,880 |
| Holmes | 2,968 | 99.43% | 17 | 0.57% | 2,951 | 98.86% | 2,985 |
| Jackson | 18,262 | 99.23% | 141 | 0.77% | 18,121 | 98.47% | 18,403 |
| Jefferson | 586 | 98.16% | 11 | 1.84% | 575 | 96.31% | 597 |
| Lafayette | 3,307 | 99.40% | 20 | 0.60% | 3,287 | 98.80% | 3,327 |
| Leon | 47,294 | 93.35% | 3,369 | 6.65% | 43,925 | 86.70% | 50,663 |
| Levy | 18,959 | 99.04% | 183 | 0.96% | 18,776 | 98.09% | 19,142 |
| Liberty | 2,973 | 99.63% | 11 | 0.37% | 2,962 | 99.27% | 2,984 |
| Marion | 24,888 | 98.50% | 379 | 1.50% | 24,509 | 97.00% | 25,267 |
| Suwannee | 17,971 | 99.14% | 156 | 0.86% | 17,815 | 98.28% | 18,127 |
| Taylor | 8,541 | 99.22% | 67 | 0.78% | 8,474 | 98.44% | 8,608 |
| Wakulla | 14,514 | 97.76% | 332 | 2.24% | 14,182 | 95.53% | 14,846 |
| Washington | 10,619 | 100.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 10,619 | 100.00% | 10,619 |
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 Results by county Results by precinctCammack: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Christensen: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district is located inNorth Central Florida, and includesAlachua,Clay,Putnam,Bradford, andUnion counties, as well as most ofMarion County. The district includes the cities ofGainesville,Palatka, andOcala. RepublicanTed Yoho, who had represented the district since 2013, was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2018.[3] On December 10, 2019, Yoho announced he would not run for re-election, honoring his pledge that he would only serve four terms.[22]
Federal officials
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Individuals
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kat Cammack | Ryan Chamberlin | Todd Chase | James St. George | Keith Perry | Gavin Rollins | Judson Sapp | Amy Pope Wells | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meer Research[53] | August 6–8, 2020 | 317 (RV) | ± 5.75% | 25% | 3% | 6% | 13% | – | 11% | 15% | 3% | 4%[b] | 20% |
| WPA Intelligence[54][A] | June 16–17, 2020 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 10% | 1% | 5% | 4% | – | 1% | 12% | 1% | 5%[c] | 60% |
| Americana Analytics/Judson Sapp[55][B] | Released April 20, 2020 | 400 (V) | ± 5% | 3% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 16% | – | –[d] | >70% |
| Clearview Research[56] | December 16–17, 2019 | 401 (LV) | – | – | – | – | – | 35% | – | 9% | 2% | 6%[e] | 48% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||
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with Ted Yoho
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kat Cammack | 21,679 | 25.2 | |
| Republican | Judson Sapp | 17,180 | 20.0 | |
| Republican | Gavin Rollins | 13,118 | 15.3 | |
| Republican | James St. George | 12,125 | 14.1 | |
| Republican | Todd Chase | 8,165 | 9.5 | |
| Republican | Ryan Chamberlin | 5,067 | 5.9 | |
| Republican | Amy Pope Wells | 3,564 | 4.1 | |
| Republican | Bill Engelbrecht | 2,001 | 2.3 | |
| Republican | David Theus | 1,874 | 2.2 | |
| Republican | Joe Millado | 1,168 | 1.4 | |
| Total votes | 85,941 | 100.0 | ||
Individuals
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Adam Christensen | 21,073 | 34.5 | |
| Democratic | Tom Wells | 20,290 | 33.2 | |
| Democratic | Philip Dodds | 19,730 | 32.3 | |
| Total votes | 61,093 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[61] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kat Cammack | 223,075 | 57.14% | ||
| Democratic | Adam Christensen | 167,326 | 42.86% | ||
| Total votes | 390,401 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[62]
| Kat Cammack Republican | Adam Christensen Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Alachua | 52,914 | 37.86% | 86,857 | 62.14% | -33,943 | -24.28% | 139,771 |
| Bradford | 9,965 | 75.11% | 3,302 | 24.89% | 6,663 | 50.22% | 13,267 |
| Clay | 84,221 | 68.89% | 38,040 | 31.11% | 46,181 | 37.77% | 122,261 |
| Marion | 46,097 | 62.94% | 27,141 | 37.06% | 18,956 | 25.88% | 73,238 |
| Putnam | 24,916 | 69.69% | 10,835 | 30.31% | 14,081 | 39.39% | 35,751 |
| Union | 4,962 | 81.17% | 1,151 | 18.83% | 3,811 | 62.34% | 6,113 |
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 Precinct results Rutherford: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Deegan: 50–60% 60–70% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 4th district is located in the First Coast region, and includes all ofNassau County, as well as parts ofDuval andSt. Johns counties. The district includes the cities ofJacksonville,St. Augustine, andFernandina Beach. RepublicanJohn Rutherford, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 65% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Rutherford (incumbent) | 80,101 | 80.2 | |
| Republican | Erick Aguilar | 19,798 | 19.8 | |
| Total votes | 99,899 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| John Rutherford | Donna Deegan | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 14, 2020 | WJXT | Kent Justice | [71] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[72] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | John Rutherford (R) | Donna Deegan (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida[73] | October 1–4, 2020 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 57% | 38% | 5%[f] | 0% |
| St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[74] | September 2, 2020 | 1,037 (LV) | – | 62% | 35% | – | 3% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Rutherford (incumbent) | 308,497 | 61.10% | ||
| Democratic | Donna Deegan | 196,423 | 38.90% | ||
| Independent | Gary Koniz (write-in) | 20 | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 504,940 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[15]
| John Rutherford Republican | Donna Deegan Democratic | Gary Koniz Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Duval | 169,852 | 57.51% | 125,498 | 42.49% | 17 | 0.01% | 44,354 | 15.08% | 295,367 |
| Nassau | 42,045 | 72.16% | 16,225 | 22.84% | 0 | 0.00% | 25,820 | 44.31% | 58,270 |
| St. Johns | 96,600 | 63.85% | 54,700 | 36.15% | 3 | 0.00% | 41,900 | 27.69% | 151,303 |
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 Precinct results Lawson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Adler: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 5th district stretches along the northern border of Florida, and includes all ofBaker,Gadsden,Hamilton andMadison counties, as well as parts ofColumbia,Duval,Jefferson, andLeon counties. The district includes the city ofQuincy, as well as parts ofTallahassee andJacksonville. The district ismajority-minority. DemocratAl Lawson, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2018.[3]
Organizations
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Al Lawson (incumbent) | 52,823 | 55.7 | |
| Democratic | Albert Chester | 24,579 | 25.9 | |
| Democratic | LaShonda "LJ" Holloway | 17,378 | 18.3 | |
| Total votes | 94,780 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Gary Adler | 17,433 | 52.1 | |
| Republican | Roger Wagoner | 16,012 | 47.9 | |
| Total votes | 33,445 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[80] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Al Lawson (incumbent) | 219,463 | 65.13% | ||
| Republican | Gary Adler | 117,510 | 34.87% | ||
| Total votes | 336,973 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[81]
| Al Lawson Democratic | Gary Adler Republican | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Baker | 2,476 | 17.94% | 11,329 | 82.06% | -8,853 | -64.13% | 13,805 |
| Columbia | 2,033 | 53.63% | 1,758 | 46.37% | 275 | 7.25% | 3,791 |
| Duval | 127,311 | 66.83% | 63,193 | 33.17% | 64,118 | 33.66% | 190,504 |
| Gadsden | 16,783 | 70.94% | 6,875 | 29.06% | 9,908 | 41.88% | 23,658 |
| Hamilton | 2,133 | 37.34% | 3,579 | 62.66% | -1,446 | -25.32% | 5,712 |
| Jefferson | 3,800 | 49.73% | 3,841 | 50.27% | -41 | -0.54% | 7,641 |
| Leon | 60,937 | 73.76% | 21,674 | 26.24% | 39,263 | 47.53% | 82,611 |
| Florida | 3,990 | 43.13% | 5,261 | 56.87% | -1,271 | -13.74% | 9,251 |
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 Precinct results Waltz: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Curtis: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 6th district encompasses theHalifax area, including all ofFlagler andVolusia counties, as well as parts ofSt. Johns andLake counties. The district includes the cities ofDaytona Beach,Palm Coast, andDeLand. RepublicanMichael Waltz, who had represented the district since 2019, was elected with 56% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Clint Curtis | 30,449 | 51.5 | |
| Democratic | Richard Thripp | 28,661 | 48.5 | |
| Total votes | 59,110 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[84] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Likely R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Michael Waltz (incumbent) | 265,393 | 60.64% | ||
| Democratic | Clint Curtis | 172,305 | 39.36% | ||
| Independent | Gerry Nolan (write-in) | 112 | 0.01% | ||
| Democratic | Alan Grayson (write-in) | 46 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 437,856 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[15]
| Michael Waltz Republican | Clint Curtis Democratic | Gerry Nolan Independent | Alan Grayson Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Flagler | 43,346 | 62.26% | 26,257 | 37.72% | 4 | 0.01% | 10 | 0.01% | 17,089 | 24.55 | 69,617 |
| Lake | 32,302 | 66.32% | 16,386 | 33.64% | 16 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.01% | 15,916 | 32.68% | 48,708 |
| St. Johns | 14,851 | 65.80% | 7,717 | 34.19% | 2 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.00% | 7,134 | 31.61% | 22,571 |
| Volusia | 174,894 | 58.89% | 121,945 | 41.06% | 90 | 0.03% | 31 | 0.01% | 52,949 | 17.83% | 296,960 |
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 Precinct results Murphy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Valentín: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 7th district is located inCentral Florida, and includes all ofSeminole County and part ofOrange County. The district includes the cities ofOrlando,Sanford, andWinter Park. DemocratStephanie Murphy, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2018.[3]
This district was included on the list of Democratic-held seats theNational Republican Congressional Committee targeted in 2020.[85]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Leo Valentín | 19,841 | 38.6 | |
| Republican | Richard Goble | 19,187 | 37.4 | |
| Republican | Yukong Zhao | 12,330 | 24.0 | |
| Total votes | 51,358 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Stephanie Murphy | Leo Valentin | William Garlington | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 13, 2020 | WESH | Greg Fox | [91] | P | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[92] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Likely D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Likely D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Richard Goble, Joel Greenberg (R), Stephanie Murphy and Leo Valentin
with Joel Greenberg and Stephanie Murphy
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Stephanie Murphy (incumbent) | 224,946 | 55.34% | ||
| Republican | Leo Valentín | 175,750 | 43.24% | ||
| Independent | William Garlington | 5,753 | 1.42% | ||
| Total votes | 406,449 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[94]
| Stephanie Murphy Democratic | Leo Valentín Republican | William Garlington Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Orange | 92,639 | 61.28% | 56,280 | 37.23% | 2,242 | 1.48% | 36,359 | 24.05% | 151,161 |
| Seminole | 132,307 | 51.83% | 119,470 | 46.80% | 3,511 | 1.38% | 12,837 | 5.03% | 255,288 |
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 Precinct results Posey: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kennedy: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 8th district encompasses theSpace Coast, and includes all ofIndian River andBrevard counties, as well as part ofOrange County. The district includes the cities ofMelbourne,Palm Bay, andTitusville. RepublicanBill Posey, who had represented the district since 2009, was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Posey (incumbent) | 54,861 | 62.5 | |
| Republican | Scott Caine | 32,952 | 37.5 | |
| Total votes | 87,813 | 100.0 | ||
Organizations
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[97] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Posey (incumbent) | 282,093 | 61.36% | ||
| Democratic | Jim Kennedy | 177,695 | 38.64% | ||
| Total votes | 459,788 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[98]
| Bill Posey Republican | Jim Kennedy Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Brevard | 215,686 | 60.68% | 139,769 | 39.32% | 75,917 | 21.36% | 355,455 |
| Indian River | 61,055 | 63.84% | 34,585 | 36.16% | 26,470 | 27.68% | 95,640 |
| Orange | 5,352 | 61.57% | 3,341 | 38.43% | 2,011 | 23.13% | 8,693 |
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 Precinct results Soto: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Olson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 9th district is located inCentral Florida, and encompasses all ofOsceola County, as well as parts ofOrange andPolk counties. The district includes the cities ofKissimmee andSt. Cloud, as well as easternOrlando. DemocratDarren Soto, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Olson | 20,751 | 48.6 | |
| Republican | Christopher Wright | 9,677 | 22.7 | |
| Republican | Jose Castillo | 8,595 | 20.1 | |
| Republican | Sergio E. Ortiz | 3,680 | 8.6 | |
| Total votes | 42,703 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Darren Soto | Bill Olson | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 6, 2020 | WESH | Greg Fox | [106] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[107] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Likely D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Darren Soto (incumbent) | 240,724 | 56.02% | ||
| Republican | Bill Olson | 188,889 | 43.96% | ||
| Independent | Clay Hill (write-in) | 25 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 429,638 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Darren Soto Democratic | Bill Olson Republican | Clay Hill Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Orange | 62,032 | 61.78% | 38,365 | 38.21% | 6 | 0.01% | 23,667 | 23.57% | 100,403 |
| Osceola | 103,147 | 61.06% | 65,756 | 38.93% | 15 | 0.01% | 37,391 | 22.14% | 168,918 |
| Polk | 75,545 | 47.12% | 84,768 | 52.88% | 4 | 0.01% | -9,223 | -5.75 | 160,317 |
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 Precinct results Demings: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Francois: 50–60% 60–70% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 10th district is located inCentral Florida, and includes part ofOrange County. The district includes westernOrlando and its surrounding suburbs, includingApopka,Ocoee, andWinter Garden. DemocratVal Demings, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected unopposed in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Vennia Francois | 21,485 | 65.1 | |
| Republican | Willie Montague | 11,498 | 34.9 | |
| Total votes | 32,983 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[110] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Val Demings (incumbent) | 239,434 | 63.61% | ||
| Republican | Vennia Francois | 136,889 | 36.36% | ||
| Independent | Sufiyah Yasmine (write-in) | 74 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 376,397 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Val Demings Democratic | Vennia Francois Republican | Sufiyah Yasmine Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Orange | 239,434 | 63.61% | 136,889 | 36.37% | 74 | 0.02% | 102,545 | 27.24% | 376,397 |
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 Precinct results Webster: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Cottrell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 11th district is located inNorth Central Florida, and includes all ofSumter,Citrus, andHernando counties, as well as parts ofMarion andLake counties. The district includes the cities ofSpring Hill,Inverness, andLeesburg, as well as the large retirement community ofThe Villages. RepublicanDaniel Webster, who had represented the district since 2011, was re-elected with 65% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[114] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Daniel Webster (incumbent) | 316,979 | 66.72% | ||
| Democratic | Dana Cottrell | 158,094 | 33.27% | ||
| Total votes | 475,073 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[15]
| Daniel Webster Republican | Dana Cottrell Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Citrus | 64,293 | 70.57% | 26,816 | 29.43% | 37,477 | 41.13% | 91,109 |
| Hernando | 68,885 | 64.73% | 37,530 | 35.27% | 31,355 | 29.46% | 106,415 |
| Lake | 61,012 | 64.93% | 32,956 | 35.07% | 28,056 | 29.86% | 93,968 |
| Marion | 58,948 | 63.42% | 33,999 | 36.58% | 24,949 | 26.84% | 92,947 |
| Sumter | 63,841 | 70.44% | 26,793 | 29.56% | 37,048 | 40.88% | 90,634 |
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 Precinct results Bilirakis: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Walker: 50–60% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 12th district encompasses the northernTampa Bay area, including all ofPasco County, as well as parts ofHillsborough andPinellas counties. The district includes the cities ofPalm Harbor,New Port Richey, andZephyrhills. RepublicanGus Bilirakis, who had represented the district since 2007, was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[118] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Gus Bilirakis (incumbent) | 284,941 | 62.88% | ||
| Democratic | Kimberly Walker | 168,194 | 37.11% | ||
| Total votes | 453,135 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[119]
| Gus Bilirakis Republican | Kimberly Walker Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Hillsborough | 5,558 | 63.47% | 3,199 | 36.53% | 2,159 | 25.11% | 8,757 |
| Pasco | 188,887 | 63.48% | 108,659 | 36.52% | 80,228 | 26.96% | 297,546 |
| Pinellas | 90,496 | 61.63% | 56,336 | 38.37% | 34,160 | 23.26% | 146,832 |
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 Precinct results Crist: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Luna: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 13th district is located in the westernTampa Bay area and encompasses the northernFlorida Suncoast, and includes part ofPinellas County. The district includes the cities ofSt. Petersburg,Clearwater, andLargo. DemocratCharlie Crist, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 57.6% of the vote in 2018.[3]
This district was included on the list of Democratic-held seats theNational Republican Congressional Committee targeted in 2020.[85]
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | George Buck | Sheila Griffin | Anna Paulina Luna | Amanda Makki | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls[148] | August 15, 2020 | 626 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 26% | 6% | 29% | 20% | 1%[i] | – |
| St. Pete Polls[149] | July 9, 2020 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 21% | 4% | 13% | 29% | 1%[j] | 32% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Anna Paulina Luna | 22,941 | 36.1 | |
| Republican | Amanda Makki | 17,967 | 28.3 | |
| Republican | George Buck | 16,371 | 25.8 | |
| Republican | Sheila Griffin | 4,329 | 6.8 | |
| Republican | Sharon Newby(withdrawn) | 1,866 | 2.9 | |
| Total votes | 63,474 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[151] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | October 1, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Lean D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Likely D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Charlie Crist (D) | Anna Paulina Luna (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls[152] | October 28, 2020 | 1,280 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 55% | 39% | 7% |
| St. Pete Polls[152] | August 29–30, 2020 | 2,160 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 55% | 39% | 7% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Charlie Crist (incumbent) | 215,405 | 53.03% | ||
| Republican | Anna Paulina Luna | 190,713 | 46.96% | ||
| Republican | Jacob Curnow (write-in) | 7 | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 406,125 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Charlie Crist Democratic | Anna Paulina Luna Republican | Jacob Cunrow Republican | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Pinellas | 215,405 | 53.04% | 190,713 | 46.96% | 7 | 0.00% | 24,692 | 6.08% | 406,125 |
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 Precinct results Castor: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Quinn: 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 14th district is located in the northernTampa Bay area, and includes part ofHillsborough County. The district includes the cities ofTampa,Carrollwood, andNorthdale. DemocratKathy Castor, who had represented the district since 2007, was re-elected unopposed in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Christine Quinn | 24,077 | 64.5 | |
| Republican | Paul Elliott | 13,257 | 35.5 | |
| Total votes | 37,334 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[157] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kathy Castor (incumbent) | 224,240 | 60.25% | ||
| Republican | Christine Quinn | 147,896 | 39.74% | ||
| Total votes | 372,136 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Kathy Castor Democratic | Christine Quinn Republican | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Hillsborough | 224,240 | 60.26% | 147,896 | 39.74% | 76,344 | 20.52% | 372,136 |
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 Precinct results Franklin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Cohn: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 15th district is located in the northeasternTampa Bay area and extends along theI-4 corridor intoCentral Florida, and includes parts ofHillsborough,Polk, andLake counties. The district includes the cities ofLakeland,Brandon, andBartow. RepublicanRoss Spano, who had represented the district since 2019, was elected with 53% of the vote in 2018. Spano lost renomination in the Republican primary.[3]
This district was included on the list of Republican-held seats theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted in 2020.[158]
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of Error | Scott Franklin | Ross Spano | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls[168] | August 12, 2020 | 594 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 42% | 18%[k] |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Franklin | 30,736 | 51.2 | |
| Republican | Ross Spano (incumbent) | 29,265 | 48.8 | |
| Total votes | 60,001 | 100.0 | ||
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alan Cohn | 21,079 | 41.0 | |
| Democratic | Adam Hattersley | 16,978 | 33.0 | |
| Democratic | Jesse Philippe | 13,384 | 26.0 | |
| Total votes | 51,441 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Lean R | July 16, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[192] | Likely R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Lean R | August 7, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Lean R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Lean R | July 6, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Likely R | April 30, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Tossup | October 15, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Lean R | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of Error | Scott Franklin (R) | Alan Cohn (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[193][C] | October 22–24, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 44% | – |
| St. Pete Polls[194] | October 15, 2020 | 943 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 41% | 11% |
| DCCC Targeting & Analytics Department (D)[195][D] | September 30 – October 4, 2020 | 390 (LV) | ± 5% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| GQR Research (D)[196][E] | September 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 42% | – |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Franklin | 216,374 | 55.38% | ||
| Democratic | Alan Cohn | 174,297 | 44.61% | ||
| Total votes | 390,671 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[197]
| Scott Franklin Republican | Alan Cohn Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Hillsborough | 99,886 | 52.67% | 89,768 | 47.33% | 10,118 | 5.33% | 189,654 |
| Lake | 34,194 | 53.55% | 29,661 | 46.45% | 4,533 | 7.10% | 63,855 |
| Polk | 82,294 | 59.98% | 54,918 | 40.02% | 27,376 | 19.95% | 137,212 |
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 Precinct results Buchanan: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Good: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 16th district encompasses the southernTampa Bay area and southernFlorida Suncoast, and includes all ofManatee County, as well as parts ofHillsborough andSarasota counties. The district includes the cities ofSarasota,Bradenton, andSun City Center. RepublicanVern Buchanan, who had represented the district since 2007, was reelected with 54% of the vote in 2018.[3]
This district was included on the list of Republican-held seats theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted in 2020.[158]
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| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Likely R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[204] | Likely R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Likely R | August 7, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Likely R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Likely R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Lean R | October 15, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Likely R | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Vern Buchanan (R) | Margaret Good (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Targeting (R)[205][F] | October 19–21, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 38% | – | – |
| Data Targeting (R)[206][F] | October 6–8, 2020 | 403 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 37% | 1%[l] | 9% |
| Change Research (D)[207][G] | October 5–8, 2020 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Data Targeting (R)[208][F] | September 29 – October 1, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 53% | 37% | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[209] | September 24–27, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – |
| Data Targeting (R)[210][F] | August 27–29, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 35% | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[211] | July 7–12, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 41% | – | – |
| Data Targeting (R)[212][F] | January 14–16, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 33% | – | 14% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Vern Buchanan (incumbent) | 269,001 | 55.50% | ||
| Democratic | Margaret Good | 215,683 | 44.50% | ||
| Total votes | 484,684 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[213]
| Vern Buchanan Republican | Margaret Good Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Hillsborough | 66,515 | 51.95% | 61,511 | 48.05% | 5,004 | 3.91% | 128,026 |
| Manatee | 128,072 | 59.63% | 86,698 | 40.37% | 41,374 | 19.26% | 214,770 |
| Sarasota | 74,414 | 52.45% | 67,474 | 47.55% | 6,940 | 4.89% | 141,888 |
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 Precinct results Steube: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Ellison: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 17th district encompasses part ofSouthwest Florida and most of theFlorida Heartland, and includes all or part of 10 counties. The district includes the cities ofNorth Port,Port Charlotte, andSebring. RepublicanGreg Steube, who had represented the district since 2019, was elected with 62% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[216] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Steube (incumbent) | 266,514 | 64.62% | ||
| Democratic | Allen Ellison | 140,487 | 34.06% | ||
| Independent | Theodore Murray | 5,396 | 1.30% | ||
| Total votes | 412,397 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[217]
| Greg Steube Republican | Allen Ellison Democratic | Theodore Murray Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Charlotte | 73,809 | 64.76% | 38,633 | 33.90% | 1,531 | 1.34% | 35,176 | 30.86% | 113,973 |
| DeSoto | 8,171 | 66.12% | 4,050 | 32.77% | 136 | 1.10% | 4,121 | 33.35% | 12,357 |
| Glades | 3,685 | 72.58% | 1,319 | 25.98% | 73 | 1.44% | 2,366 | 46.60% | 5,077 |
| Hardee | 5,771 | 69.30% | 2,422 | 29.09% | 134 | 1.61% | 3,349 | 40.22% | 8,327 |
| Highlands | 34,540 | 67.81% | 15,807 | 31.03% | 586 | 1.15% | 18,733 | 36.78% | 50,933 |
| Lee | 27,620 | 64.19% | 14,733 | 34.24% | 678 | 1.58% | 12,887 | 29.95% | 43,031 |
| Okeechobee | 11,082 | 71.55% | 4,129 | 26.66% | 278 | 1.79% | 6,953 | 44.89% | 15,489 |
| Polk | 24,504 | 62.95% | 13,751 | 35.33% | 672 | 1.73% | 10,753 | 27.62% | 38,927 |
| Sarasota | 77,332 | 62.22% | 45,643 | 36.73% | 1,308 | 1.05% | 31,689 | 25.50% | 124,283 |
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 Precinct results Mast: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Keith: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 18th district encompasses theTreasure Coast region, and includes all ofSt. Lucie andMartin counties, as well as part ofPalm Beach County. The district includes the cities ofPort St. Lucie,Fort Pierce, andJupiter. RepublicanBrian Mast, who had represented the district since 2017, was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2018.[3]
This district was included on the list of Republican-held seats theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted in 2020.[158]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brian Mast (incumbent) | 62,121 | 86.0 | |
| Republican | Nick Vessio | 10,081 | 14.0 | |
| Total votes | 72,202 | 100.0 | ||
U.S. senators
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Pam Keith | 52,921 | 79.8 | |
| Democratic | Oz Vazquez | 13,385 | 20.2 | |
| Total votes | 66,306 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Likely R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[230] | Likely R | October 19, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Likely R | October 16, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely R | October 20, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Likely R | October 19, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Tossup | July 26, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Brian Mast (R) | Pam Keith (D) | K. W. Miller (I) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearview Research (D)[231][H] | October 7–9, 2020 | 301 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | 4% | – |
| St. Pete Polls[232] | September 18, 2020 | 1,149 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 42% | 2% | 5% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brian Mast (incumbent) | 253,286 | 56.32% | ||
| Democratic | Pam Keith | 186,674 | 41.50% | ||
| Independent | K. W. Miller | 9,760 | 2.17% | ||
| Total votes | 449,720 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[233]
| Brian Mast Republican | Pam Keith Democratic | K. W. Miller Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Martin | 64,874 | 66.15% | 31,205 | 31.82% | 1,991 | 2.03% | 33,669 | 34.33% | 98,070 |
| Palm Beach | 99,734 | 55.18% | 77,238 | 42.73% | 3,769 | 2.09% | 22,496 | 12.45% | 180,741 |
| St. Lucie | 88,678 | 51.89% | 78,231 | 45.77% | 4,000 | 2.34% | 10,447 | 6.11% | 170,909 |
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 Precinct results Donalds: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Banyai: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 19th district includes most ofSouthwest Florida, and includes parts ofLee andCollier counties. The district includes the cities ofCape Coral,Fort Myers,Estero,Bonita Springs andNaples. RepublicanFrancis Rooney, who had represented the district since 2017, was reelected with 62% of the vote in 2018.[3] On October 19, 2019, Rooney announced he would not seek re-election.[234]
Organizations
Federal officials
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Organizations
Individuals
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Casey Askar | Byron Donalds | Dane Eagle | William Figlesthaler | Randy Henderson | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls[261] | August 16, 2020 | 439 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 22% | 23% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 8%[m] | 4% |
| St. Pete Polls[262] | August 3, 2020 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 21% | 8% | 6%[m] | 14% |
| Data Targeting/Dane Eagle[263][I] | July 23, 2020 | 282 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 15% | 21% | 23% | 19% | 6% | 3%[n] | 8% |
| St. Pete Polls[264] | July 6, 2020 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 30% | 26% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 4%[o] | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Byron Donalds | 23,492 | 22.6 | |
| Republican | Dane Eagle | 22,715 | 21.9 | |
| Republican | Casey Askar | 20,774 | 20.0 | |
| Republican | William Figlesthaler | 19,075 | 18.3 | |
| Republican | Randy Henderson | 7,858 | 7.6 | |
| Republican | Christy McLaughlin | 4,245 | 4.1 | |
| Republican | Dan Severson | 3,197 | 3.1 | |
| Republican | Darren Aquino | 1,466 | 1.4 | |
| Republican | Daniel Kowal | 1,135 | 1.1 | |
| Total votes | 103,957 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Cindy Banyai | 28,765 | 57.6 | |
| Democratic | David Holden | 21,212 | 42.4 | |
| Total votes | 49,977 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Byron Donalds | Cindy Banyai | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 30, 2020 | WGCU (TV) | [269] | P | P | |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[270] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Byron Donalds | 272,440 | 61.27% | ||
| Democratic | Cindy Banyai | 172,146 | 38.72% | ||
| Independent | Patrick Post (write-in) | 3 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 444,589 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Source[15]
| Byron Donalds Republican | Cindy Banyai Democratic | Patrick Post Independent | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Collier | 69,227 | 65.41% | 36,612 | 34.59% | 1 | 0.00% | 32,615 | 30.82% | 105,840 |
| Lee | 203,213 | 59.99% | 135,534 | 40.01% | 2 | 0.00% | 67,679 | 19.98% | 338,749 |
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
 County results Hastings: 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Hastings: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Musselwhite: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 20th district is located inSouth Florida, and includes parts ofBroward andPalm Beach counties. The district includes the cities ofFort Lauderdale,Pompano Beach, andBelle Glade. DemocratAlcee Hastings, who had represented the district since 1993, was re-elected unopposed in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alcee Hastings (incumbent) | 62,759 | 69.3 | |
| Democratic | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick | 27,831 | 30.7 | |
| Total votes | 90,590 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Musselwhite | 5,394 | 52.0 | |
| Republican | Vic DeGrammont | 4,975 | 48.0 | |
| Total votes | 10,369 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[278] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alcee Hastings (incumbent) | 253,661 | 78.67% | ||
| Republican | Greg Musselwhite | 68,748 | 21.32% | ||
| Total votes | 322,409 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[279]
| Alcee Hastings Democratic | Greg Musselwhite Republican | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Broward | 186,909 | 81.72% | 41,803 | 18.28% | 145,106 | 63.44% | 228,712 |
| Palm Beach | 66,752 | 71.24% | 26,945 | 28.76% | 39,807 | 42.48% | 93,697 |
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| |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Frankel: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Loomer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 21st district is located inSouth Florida, and includes part ofPalm Beach County. The district includes the cities ofWest Palm Beach,Boynton Beach, andWellington. DemocratLois Frankel, who had represented the district since 2013, was re-elected unopposed in 2018.[3]
Organizations
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Lois Frankel (incumbent) | 75,504 | 86.0 | |
| Democratic | Guido Weiss | 12,308 | 14.0 | |
| Total votes | 87,812 | 100.0 | ||
U.S. presidents
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Individuals
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Laura Loomer | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Sentinel[298][J] | Released June 20, 2020 | –[p] | – | 51% | ≥4%[q] |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Laura Loomer | 14,526 | 42.5 | |
| Republican | Christian Acosta | 8,724 | 25.5 | |
| Republican | Michael Vilardi | 4,194 | 12.3 | |
| Republican | Aaron Scanlan | 3,221 | 9.4 | |
| Republican | Elizabeth Felton | 2,421 | 7.1 | |
| Republican | Reba Sherrill | 1,070 | 3.1 | |
| Total votes | 34,156 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[300] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Lois Frankel (D) | Laura Loomer (R) | Charleston Malkemus (I) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[301] | October 2, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 61% | 33% | 2% | 5% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Lois Frankel (incumbent) | 237,925 | 59.02% | ||
| Republican | Laura Loomer | 157,612 | 39.10% | ||
| Independent | Charleston Malkemus | 7,544 | 1.87% | ||
| Independent | Sylvia Caravetta (write-in) | 8 | 0.01% | ||
| Republican | Piotr Blass (write-in) | 4 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 403,093 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Lois Frankel Democratic | Laura Loomer Republican | Charleston Malkemus Independent | Sylvia Caravetta Independent | Piotr Blass Republican | Margin | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Palm Beach | 237,925 | 59.02% | 157,612 | 39.10% | 7,544 | 1.87% | 8 | 0.00% | 4 | 0.00% | 80,313 | 19.92% | 403,093 |
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| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Deutch: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pruden: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 22nd district is located inSouth Florida, and includes parts ofBroward andPalm Beach counties. The district includes the cities ofBoca Raton,Deerfield Beach, andCoral Springs. DemocratTed Deutch, who had represented the district since 2010, was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2018.[3]
Newspapers
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | James Pruden | 11,840 | 35.6 | |
| Republican | Jessica Melton | 9,969 | 30.0 | |
| Republican | Fran Flynn | 8,667 | 26.1 | |
| Republican | Darlene Swaffar | 2,763 | 8.3 | |
| Total votes | 33,239 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[306] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ted Deutch (incumbent) | 235,764 | 58.60% | ||
| Republican | James Pruden | 166,553 | 41.39% | ||
| Total votes | 402,317 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[307]
| Ted Deutch Democratic | James Pruden Republican | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Broward | 192,923 | 59.96% | 128,851 | 40.04% | 64,072 | 19.91% | 321,774 |
| Palm Beach | 42,841 | 53.19% | 37,702 | 46.81% | 5,139 | 6.38% | 80,543 |
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| |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Schultz: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Spalding: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 23rd district is located inSouth Florida, and includes parts ofBroward andMiami-Dade counties. The district includes the cities ofPembroke Pines,Davie, andAventura. DemocratDebbie Wasserman Schultz, who had represented the district since 2005, was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2018.[3]
Individuals
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Newspapers
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (incumbent) | 55,729 | 72.0 | |
| Democratic | Jen Perelman | 21,631 | 28.0 | |
| Total votes | 77,360 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Carla Spalding | 12,751 | 51.3 | |
| Republican | Michael Kroske | 12,116 | 48.7 | |
| Total votes | 24,867 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[319] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (incumbent) | 221,239 | 58.19% | ||
| Republican | Carla Spalding | 158,874 | 41.78% | ||
| Republican | Jeff Olson (write-in) | 46 | 0.01% | ||
| Republican | D. B. Fugate (write-in) | 37 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 381,196 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz Democratic | Carla Spalding Republican | Jeff Olson Republican | D. B. Fugate Republican | Margin | Total | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Broward | 203,940 | 58.96% | 141,886 | 41.02% | 42 | 0.01% | 33 | 0.01% | 62,054 | 17.94% | 345,901 |
| Miami-Dade | 17,299 | 50.44% | 16,988 | 49.53% | 4 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.01% | 311 | 0.91% | 34,295 |
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Wilson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Spicer: 40–50% 50–60% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 24th district is located inSouth Florida, and includes parts ofBroward andMiami-Dade counties. The district includes the cities ofMiami,Miami Gardens, andHollywood. DemocratFrederica Wilson, who had represented the district since 2011, was re-elected unopposed in 2018.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Frederica Wilson (incumbent) | 68,505 | 84.7 | |
| Democratic | Sakinah Lehtola | 6,267 | 7.7 | |
| Democratic | Ricardo de La Fuente | 6,134 | 7.6 | |
| Total votes | 80,906 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[327] | Safe D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Frederica Wilson (incumbent) | 218,825 | 75.55% | ||
| Republican | Lavern Spicer | 59,084 | 20.39% | ||
| Independent | Christine Olivo | 11,703 | 4.04% | ||
| Republican | Howard Knepper (write-in) | 17 | 0.01% | ||
| Independent | Hector Rivera (write-in) | 9 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 289,638 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Source[15]
| Frederica Wilson Democratic | Lavern Spicer Republican | Christine Olivo Independent | Howard Knepper Republican | Hector Rivera Independent | Margin | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Broward | 24,817 | 67.93% | 10,079 | 27.59% | 1,632 | 4.47% | 3 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 14,738 | 40.34% | 36,531 |
| Miami-Dade | 194,008 | 76.65% | 49,005 | 19.36% | 10,071 | 3.98% | 14 | 0.01% | 9 | 0.00% | 145,003 | 57.29% | 253,107 |
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| |||||||||||
 Precinct results Díaz-Balart: >90% | |||||||||||
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The 25th district is located inSouth Florida and stretches into parts ofSouthwest Florida and theFlorida Heartland, and includes all ofHendry County, as well as parts ofMiami-Dade andCollier counties. The district includes the cities ofHialeah,Doral, andClewiston. RepublicanMario Díaz-Balart, who had represented the district since 2003, was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2018.[3]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[330] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Safe R | September 9, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Safe R | October 15, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mario Díaz-Balart (incumbent) | — | Uncontested | |
| Total votes | — | — | ||
| Republicanhold | ||||
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| |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Giménez: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Mucarsel-Powell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 26th district is located inSouth Florida and theFlorida Keys, and includes all ofMonroe County and part ofMiami-Dade County. The district includes the cities ofHomestead,Kendale Lakes, andKey West. DemocratDebbie Mucarsel-Powell, who had represented the district since 2019, flipped the district and was elected with 50% of the vote in 2018.[3]
This district was included on the list of Democratic-held seats theNational Republican Congressional Committee targeted in 2020.[85]
Federal officials
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Omar Blanco | Carlos Giménez | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unspecified national Republican organization[340] | October 13–15, 2019 | ≈136 (LV)[r] | – | 6% | 51% | 2%[s] | 39% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Carlos A. Giménez | 29,480 | 59.9 | |
| Republican | Omar Blanco | 19,721 | 40.1 | |
| Total votes | 49,201 | 100.0 | ||
U.S. presidents
Organizations
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Lean D | October 21, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[348] | Likely D | October 19, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[349] | Tilt D | October 16, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Tossup | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Tossup | October 15, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D) | Carlos Giménez (R) | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[350][K] | July 14–18, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Unspecified national Republican organization[340] | October 13–15, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 45% | – |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Carlos A. Giménez | 177,223 | 51.72% | ||
| Democratic | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (incumbent) | 165,407 | 48.27% | ||
| Total votes | 342,630 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | |||||
Source[351]
| Carlos A. Giménez Republican | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Democratic | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Miami-Dade | 151,669 | 51.30% | 144,010 | 48.70% | 7,659 | 2.59% | 295,679 |
| Monroe | 25,554 | 54.43% | 21,397 | 45.57% | 4,157 | 8.85% | 46,951 |
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| |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Salazar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Shalala: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 27th district is located inSouth Florida, and includes part ofMiami-Dade County. The district includes the cities ofCoral Gables,Kendall, andMiami Beach, as well as the neighborhood ofLittle Havana inMiami. DemocratDonna Shalala, who had represented the district since 2019, flipped the district and was elected with 52% of the vote in 2018.[3]This district was included on the list of Democratic-held seats theNational Republican Congressional Committee targeted in 2020.[85]Despite being the heavy favorite, Shalala was unseated by Salazar.[352]
U.S. presidents
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U.S. presidents
U.S. representatives
Organizations
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Maria Elvira Salazar | 39,687 | 79.1 | |
| Republican | Raymond Molina | 5,497 | 10.9 | |
| Republican | Juan Fiol | 5,018 | 10.0 | |
| Total votes | 50,202 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Likely D | July 2, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[365] | Likely D | October 15, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[11] | Likely D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Lean D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Likely D | October 15, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donna Shalala (D) | Maria Salazar (R) | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bendixen & Amandi Research (D)[366][L] | October 9–13, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| 1892 Polling (R)[367][M] | September 2–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 46% | – |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Maria Elvira Salazar | 176,141 | 51.35% | ||
| Democratic | Donna Shalala (incumbent) | 166,758 | 48.62% | ||
| Republican | Frank Polo (write-in) | 76 | 0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 342,975 | 100.0 | |||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | |||||
Source[15]
| Maria Elvira Salazar Republican | Donna Shalala Democratic | Frank Polo Republican | Margin | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Miami-Dade | 176,141 | 51.36% | 166,758 | 48.62% | 76 | 0.02% | 9,383 | 2.74% | 342,975 |
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