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All 93 seats in theLegislative Assembly of Queensland 47 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 3,377,476 ( 4.6%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 2,969,347 (87.92%) ( 0.4pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Winning margin by electorate..svg) Simple results by electorate. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The2020 Queensland state election was held on 31 October to elect all 93 members to the57th Legislative Assembly of Queensland. TheLabor Party was returned to government for a third-term, led by incumbentpremierAnnastacia Palaszczuk.[2] With 47 seats needed to form amajority government, Labor won 52 seats, including all but five inBrisbane, while theLiberal National Party won 34 seats and formed opposition. On the crossbench,Katter's Australian Party retained its 3 seats, theQueensland Greens picked upSouth Brisbane for a total of 2,Pauline Hanson's One Nation retainedMirani and independentSandy Bolton retained her seat ofNoosa.
Both major parties managed a small swing to them on primary votes, as a result of One Nation's vote sharply declining. On the two-party-preferred vote, Labor had a small swing to it statewide, though the party did notably lose some ground to the LNP in some key seats, including the ultra-marginal seats ofBurdekin andWhitsunday, and the LNP also won bothToowoomba-based seats with increased majorities. Labor picked up five seats from the LNP, but notably formerDeputy PremierJackie Trad lost her seat ofSouth Brisbane to the Greens.
At 11pm on 31 October, Liberal National Party leaderDeb Frecklington conceded defeat, congratulating Palaszczuk on her victory.[2] Frecklington initially indicated that she would stay on as party leader, but on 2 November announced that she would convene a party meeting and resign as leader.[3]David Crisafulli won the ensuingleadership spill and was elected LNP leader on 12 November 2020.[4]
Palaszczuk became the first female party leader to win three state elections in Australia,[5] as well as the first Queensland Premier to increase their party's seat total across three successive elections.[6]
| 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 34 |
| ALP | GRN | IND | ONP | KAP | LNP |
 | ||||||||||
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Seats | +/– | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 1,134,969 | 39.57 | +4.14 | 52 | 4 | |||||
| Liberal National | 1,029,442 | 35.89 | +2.20 | 34 |  5 | |||||
| Greens | 271,514 | 9.47 | −0.53 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| One Nation | 204,316 | 7.12 | −6.60 | 1 |  | |||||
| Katter's Australian | 72,168 | 2.52 | +0.20 | 3 | | |||||
| Legalise Cannabis | 26,146 | 0.91 | +0.91 | 0 | | |||||
| United Australia | 17,904 | 0.62 | +0.62 | 0 | | |||||
| Informed Medical Options | 17,546 | 0.61 | +0.61 | 0 | | |||||
| Animal Justice | 9,703 | 0.34 | +0.34 | 0 | | |||||
| North Queensland First | 5,616 | 0.20 | +0.20 | 0 | | |||||
| Civil Liberties and Motorists | 5,207 | 0.18 | −0.08[b] | 0 | | |||||
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 2,801 | 0.10 | +0.10 | 0 | | |||||
| Independents | 70,992 | 2.48 | −2.10 | 1 | | |||||
| Formal votes | 2,868,324 | 96.60 | +0.94 | |||||||
| Informal votes | 101,023 | 3.40 | −0.94 | |||||||
| Total | 2,969,347 | 100 | 93 | |||||||
| Registered voters / turnout | 3,377,476 | 87.92 | +0.39 | |||||||
| Two-party-preferred vote[15] | ||||||||||
| Labor | 1,524,766 | 53.2 | 1.9 | |||||||
| Liberal National | 1,343,558 | 46.8 | 1.9 | |||||||
| Labor | 39.57% | |||
| LNP | 35.89% | |||
| Greens | 9.47% | |||
| One Nation | 7.12% | |||
| Katter's | 2.52% | |||
| Independents | 2.48% | |||
| Other | 2.95% | |||
| Labor | 53.2% | |||
| LNP | 46.8% | |||
| Labor | 55.91% | |||
| LNP | 36.56% | |||
| Katter's | 3.23% | |||
| Greens | 2.15% | |||
| One Nation | 1.08% | |||
| Independents | 1.08% | |||
| Seat | 2017 Election | Swing | 2020 Election | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bundaberg | Liberal National | David Batt | 4.20 | –4.21 | 0.01 | Tom Smith | Labor | ||
| Caloundra | Liberal National | Mark McArdle | 3.41 | –5.92 | 2.51 | Jason Hunt | Labor | ||
| Hervey Bay | Liberal National | Ted Sorensen | 9.10 | –11.12 | 2.02 | Adrian Tantari | Labor | ||
| Nicklin | Liberal National | Marty Hunt | 5.28 | –5.42 | 0.14 | Robert Skelton | Labor | ||
| Pumicestone | Liberal National | Simone Wilson | 0.84 | –6.11 | 5.27 | Ali King | Labor | ||
| South Brisbane | Labor | Jackie Trad | 3.55 | –8.90 | 5.35 | Amy MacMahon | Greens | ||
The swing between the major parties in each seat varied across the state. However, Labor managed a small statewide swing to it.
Queenslanders have been known to, at some points in time, vote for Labor on the state level and the LNP on the federal level; in2019, when the federalCoalition government led byScott Morrison was unexpectedly re-elected for a third consecutive term, the LNP won23 of the 30House of Representatives seats in Queensland and 58.44% of thetwo-party-preferred vote in the state, with Morrison's victory being credited to a stronger-than-expected performance in Queensland andTasmania, despite Queensland having a state Labor government.
Ultimately, Labor managed to gain five seats from the LNP, including twoSunshine Coast seats (Caloundra andNicklin), two seats in smaller regional cities (Bundaberg andHervey Bay) and one seat inBrisbane (Pumicestone). However, Labor lost the seat ofSouth Brisbane to the Greens, therefore giving Labor a net seat change of +4.
The seat of Bundaberg was won by Labor with a margin of just nine votes, currently the smallest margin of any federal or state electorate in Australia.
Labor's defeat in South Brisbane was significant in two ways. The Greens won their second state seat in Queensland, after winningMaiwar from the LNP in2017. However, it also led to the defeat of sittingDeputy PremierJackie Trad.[16] Trad became the first sitting Deputy Premier of Queensland to beunseated since1947 (when Labor'sTed Walsh was unseated).
One Nation contested 90 seats at this election, but the party's vote dropped dramatically, having almost halved. One Nation finished second in many seats in 2017, but in 2020 the party only finished second in one seat: the Labor-held seat ofBundamba. Nevertheless, One Nation managed to get an increased majority in the only lower house seat in Australia that it currently holds:Mirani (represented byStephen Andrew since 2017).
While Labor received a small swing to it in most seats, the party did lose some ground to the LNP in a few key seats, includingBuderim,Cook,Mackay,Toowoomba North andWhitsunday.
The LNP managed to regain the seat of Whitsunday, where the sitting member (Jason Costigan) was expelled from the LNP and formed his own party,North Queensland First. The LNP candidate,Amanda Camm, managed to win the seat with an increased majority over the Labor Party.
At the2017 election,Labor won majority with 48 of 93 seats and formed government in the 56th Queensland Parliament. The LNP won 39 seats and formed opposition. Being allocated tocrossbench, theKatter's Australian Party won three seats,One Nation won one seat, theGreens won one seat andIndependentSandy Bolton won the seat ofNoosa.
Despitetwo by-elections, the composition of the 56th Parliament was unchanged, with the exception of the member forWhitsundayJason Costigan. He was expelled from the LNP over allegations of behavioural impropriety, resulting in him joining the crossbench and eventually forming theNorth Queensland First party.
Labor has won all but one state election since1989, and has only been out of government for five years since then. It lost its majority in 1996, giving way to a Coalition minority government that was defeated in1998. In2012, it suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history, but regained power in2015.
This election also marks the first time that both leaders of the current government and opposition have been female in a Queensland state election.[17] It is only the second time it has occurred in an Australian state, territory or federal election, the first time being the1995 ACT election.
A record number of minor parties and candidates ran in the election, 342 minor party candidates, 69 as independents or not officially endorsed by any party. Labor, the LNP and the Greens ran candidates in every electorate, Pauline Hanson's One Nation ran in 90 electorates.[18]
Queensland hascompulsory voting and uses full-preferenceinstant-runoff voting forsingle-member electorates. The election was conducted by theElectoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ).
Of the political parties contesting the election, the party, orcoalition, that win the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government.
The party, or coalition that gains the next highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.
Queensland Parliament is the onlyunicameral state parliament in Australia. It has just one House—the Legislative Assembly.
The election was for all 93 members of theLegislative Assembly. Pursuant toConstitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 vote scheduled every four years on the last Saturday of October. TheGovernor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintainconfidence, or the annualappropriation bill fails to pass.
Under the legislation, thecaretaker period commenced on 5 October 2020, 26 days prior to the election date.[19]
Due to theCOVID-19 pandemic, consideration was given to holding this election as a fullpostal ballot,[20] but this did not occur.[21] Despite this, a record number of postal votes was cast at the election, with a majority of Queenslanders voting before polling day.[21]
The election timetable is as follows:[22]
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 6 October 2020 | Queensland Parliament dissolved byGovernorPaul de Jersey[23] |
| 10 October 2020 | Close of electoral rolls |
| 11 October 2020 | Close of nominations |
| 19 October 2020 | Early voting begins |
| 30 October 2020 | Early voting ends at 6 pm |
| 31 October 2020 | Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm |
| 10 November 2020 | Last day for receipt of postal votes by 6 pm |
Since the previous election,2017, six political parties were registered by Queensland'sElectoral Commission:Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party,North Queensland First, theAnimal Justice Party,Clive Palmer's United Australia Party,Informed Medical Options Party, andLegalise Cannabis Queensland.
The following twelve registered parties contested the election, including a record number of minor parties:
|
The LNP confirmed it would preference Labor candidates last on all of itshow-to-vote cards.[25] An exception is forMaiwar, a seat held by the Greens, where the LNP put the sitting Greens member below the Labor candidate in the how-to-vote card.[26]
In response to LNP's preferences, Katter's Australia Party announced it would preference Greens candidates last on its party's how-to-vote cards, with party leaderRobbie Katter suggesting the LNP's decision would lead to Greens candidates winning a number of seats in Brisbane.[27] Katter's Australia Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation also announced a preference deal on 8 October, with the parties to preference each other in second place on their how-to-vote cards.[28]
Labor confirmed it would preference One Nation last on how-to-vote cards.[26]
At the close of nominations on 11 October 2020, 597 candidates had nominated for the state election—the highest number of candidates at a Queensland state election, surpassing the previous record of 453 candidates at the2017 election.[35]
The first leaders' debate of the campaign between Palaszczuk and Frecklington was a People's Forum hosted by Sky News and the Courier Mail and was held on 28 October.[36] The selected audience consisted of undecided voters who post-debate were asked which party they would vote for based on the debate performance of the respective leaders. A majority of 53% opted for Labor, 30% for the LNP, whilst the remaining 17% were undecided.[37]
Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use an estimate of the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.
| Date | Firm | Primary vote | 2pp vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LNP | ON | Green | Other | ALP | LNP | |||
| 31 October 2020 election | 39.6% | 35.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 53.2% | 46.8% | ||
| 25–30 Oct 2020 | Newspoll[38] | 37% | 36% | 10% | 11% | 6% | 51.5% | 48.5% | |
| 12–15 Oct 2020 | Roy Morgan[39] | 36% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 51% | 49% | |
| 9–14 Oct 2020 | Newspoll[40] | 37% | 37% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |
| 24 Sep–1 Oct 2020 | YouGov[41] | 37% | 37% | 9% | 12% | 5% | 52% | 48% | |
| 30 July 2020 | Newspoll[42] | 34% | 38% | 11% | 12% | 5% | 49% | 51% | |
| 7 June 2020 | YouGov[43] | 32% | 38% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 48% | 52% | |
| 7 February 2020 | YouGov[44] | 34% | 35% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 50% | 50% | |
| 30 August 2019 | YouGov[45] | 32% | 37% | 13% | 13% | 5% | 49% | 51% | |
| 13–14 February 2019 | YouGov[46] | 35% | 35% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 52% | 48% | |
| 7–8 November 2018 | YouGov[47] | 36% | 34% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 53% | 47% | |
| 8–9 August 2018 | YouGov[48] | 35% | 37% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 51% | 49% | |
| 9–10 May 2018 | YouGov[49] | 38% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 53% | 47% | |
| 7–8 Feb 2018 | YouGov[50] | 37% | 36% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |
| 12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition | |||||||||
| 25 Nov 2017 election | 35.4% | 33.7% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 51.2% | 48.8% | ||
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | Newspoll[51] | 36% | 34% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 52.5% | 47.5% | |
| 24 Nov 2017 | Galaxy[52] | 37% | 35% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |
| 20 Nov 2017 | ReachTEL[53] | 34% | 30% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 51% | 49% | |
| Date | Firm | Better premier | Palaszczuk | Frecklington | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palaszczuk | Frecklington | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
| 9–14 Oct 2020 | Newspoll[54] | 56% | 32% | 63% | 33% | 37% | 44% | |
| 24 Sep–1 Oct 2020 | YouGov[41] | 48% | 22% | 57% | 27% | 29% | 32% | |
| 21 September 2020 | Newspoll[55] | - | - | 63% | 33% | - | - | |
| 30 July 2020 | Newspoll[56] | 57% | 26% | 64% | 29% | 34% | 42% | |
| 12 June 2020 | Liberal National Party[57] | 42% | 19% | - | - | - | - | |
| 7 June 2020 | YouGov[44] | 44% | 23% | 49% | 33% | 26% | 29% | |
| 7 February 2020 | YouGov[44] | 34% | 22% | 29% | 44% | 23% | 33% | |
| 30 August 2019 | YouGov[58] | 34% | 29% | 34% | 45% | 30% | 30% | |
| 13–14 February 2019 | YouGov[46] | 47% | 27% | 48% | 38% | 31% | 35% | |
| 7–8 November 2018 | YouGov[47] | 43% | 26% | 46% | 37% | 35% | 29% | |
| 8–9 August 2018 | YouGov[48] | - | - | 41% | 38% | 31% | 26% | |
| 9–10 May 2018 | YouGov[49] | 47% | 27% | 46% | 38% | 31% | 28% | |
| 7–8 Feb 2018 | YouGov[50] | 42% | 31% | - | - | - | - | |
| 12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition | ||||||||
| Date | Firm | Electorate | Voting intention | 2cp vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LNP | ONP | GRN | KAP | UAP | LCA | OTH | ALP | LNP | GRN | |||
| 26 Oct 2020 | Newspoll[59] | South Brisbane | 32.0% | 24.0% | — | 39.0% | — | — | — | — | 45.5% | — | 54.5% |
| 24 Oct 2020 | Newspoll[60] | Mansfield | 41.0% | 45.0% | 2.0% | 9.0% | — | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | — |
| Mundingburra | 35.0% | 32.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | — | 49.5% | 50.5% | — | ||
| Pumicestone | 45.0% | 37.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | — | 1.0% | 2.0% | — | 54.0% | 46.0% | — | ||
| General elections | |
|---|---|
| Local elections | |
| Mayoral elections | |
| Referendums | |
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