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2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

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March 3, 2020
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114 delegates (91 pledged, 23 unpledged)
to theDemocratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
 
CandidateJoe BidenBernie Sanders
Home stateDelawareVermont
Delegate count3730
Popular vote473,861376,990
Percentage33.41%26.58%

 
CandidateElizabeth WarrenMichael Bloomberg
Home stateMassachusettsNew York
Delegate count240
Popular vote303,864166,200
Percentage21.43%11.72%

County results
Municipality results

Biden

  30 – 40%

Sanders

  30 – 40%
  40 – 50%

Municipality results

  Joe Biden    
  Elizabeth Warren
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie
  N/A
Elections in
Massachusetts
U.S. President
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flagMassachusetts portal

The2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, as one of 15 contests scheduled onSuper Tuesday in theDemocratic Party primaries for the2020 presidential election, following theSouth Carolina primary the weekend before. TheMassachusetts primary was asemi-closed primary, with the state awarding 114delegates towards the2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 91 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

While senatorsBernie Sanders andElizabeth Warren had been thoroughly projected in all pre-election polls and forecasts to compete for victory till the last day, former vice presidentJoe Biden, who had barely polled over 15% in the state, made an enormous surge and won by a large margin with over 33% of the vote and 37 delegates, continuing his string of Super Tuesday victories.[1][2][3] One of the greatest upsets of the night, Biden almost certainly owed his success to the last minute endorsements from former Democratic opponentsPete Buttigieg,Amy Klobuchar andBeto O'Rourke after hisSouth Carolina win.[4][5] Sanders finished behind in second place with nearly 27% and 30 delegates, while Warren's third-place finish in her home state with around 21% of the vote and 24 delegates was regarded the final crush to her candidacy.[6][7] Former mayorMichael Bloomberg did not win any delegates.

Procedure

[edit]

Massachusetts was one of 14 states and one territory holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday".[8] Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with some precincts opening at 5:45 a.m. In the semi-closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level to be considered viable. The 91 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 6 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 12 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 20 at-large delegates.[9]).[10] The Super Tuesday primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on the first shared date or on a March date in general.[11]

After congressional district caucuses on April 25, 2020, during which national convention district delegates were selected, the state party committee met on May 16, 2020, and voted on the 20 at-large and 12 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation was joined by 23 unpledged PLEO delegates: 9 members of theDemocratic National Committee, 11 members of Congress (both senators, notablyElizabeth Warren, and 9 representatives, including former candidateSeth Moulton), as well as former DNC chairsSteven Grossman,Debra DeLee, andPaul G. Kirk.[10]

Pledgednational
convention
delegates
TypeDel.TypeDel.
CD16CD66
CD26CD78
CD36CD87
CD46CD96
CD58
PLEO12At-large20
Total pledged delegates91

Candidates

[edit]

TheMassachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth released the following list of candidates on the ballot:[12]

Running

Withdrawn

There were also a write-in option and a "no preference" option on the ballot.[12]

Polling

[edit]
Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregationDate
updated
Dates
polled
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Tulsi
Gabbard
Others/
Undecided[b]
270 to Win[13]March 3, 2020Until March 3, 202022.4%21.0%15.0%13.6%1.8%26.2%
FiveThirtyEight[14]March 3, 2020until March 3, 2020[c]24.4%21.0%18.1%14.5%0.4%21.6%
Average23.4%21.0%16.6%14.0%1.1%23.9%
Massachusetts primary results (March 3, 2020)26.6%21.4%33.4%11.7%0.7%6.1%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Beto
O'Rourke
Deval
Patrick
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
OtherUndecided
Mar 2, 2020Klobuchar withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Swayable[15]Mar 1–2, 2020917 (LV)± 4.0%17%18%11%5%27%15%8%[e]
Data for Progress[16]Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020301 (LV)± 5.6%26%15%2%1%26%28%2%[f]
Mar 1, 2020Buttigieg withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV[17]Feb 26–29, 2020500 (LV)-11.0%13.0%12.4%5.0%24.2%22.2%3.6%[g]8.6%
WBUR/MassINC[18]Feb 23–26, 2020426 (LV)± 4.9%9%13%-14%-6%--25%17%9%[h]8%
UMass Amherst[19]Feb 18–24, 2020400 (LV)± 5.9%12%9%-14%-7%--25%23%8%[i]3%
Falchuk & DiNatale[20]Feb 16–18, 2020453 (LV)13%13%13%14%17%16%5%[j]8%
University of Massachusetts Lowell[21]Feb 12–19, 2020450 (LV)± 6.1%14%12%15%9%21%20%6%[k]4%
Feb 12, 2020Patrick withdraws from the race
Falchuk & DiNatale[22]Jan 27–30, 2020334 (LV)16%8%6%7%3%12%23%7%[l]
Jan 13, 2020Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 24, 2019Bloomberg announceshis candidacy
Nov 14, 2019Patrick announceshis candidacy
Nov 1, 2019O'Rourke withdraws from the race
WBUR[23]Oct 16–20, 2019456± 4.6%18%0%7%3%1%0%13%33%7%[m]15%
Suffolk University[24]Sep 3–5, 2019500-26%1%5%3%0%1%8%24%6%[n]25%
Aug 23, 2019Moulton withdraws from the race
Suffolk University[25]Jun 5–9, 2019370± 5.1%22%1%8%5%0%1%6%10%5%[o]42%
Apr 25, 2019Biden announceshis candidacy
Apr 22, 2019Moulton announceshis candidacy
Apr 14, 2019Buttigieg announceshis candidacy
Emerson College[26]Apr 4–7, 2019371± 5.0%23%2%11%7%2%8%26%14%8%[p]
Mar 14, 2019O'Rourke announceshis candidacy
Feb 19, 2019Sanders announceshis candidacy
Feb 10, 2019Klobuchar announcesher candidacy
Feb 9, 2019Warren announcesher candidacy
Feb 1, 2019Booker announceshis candidacy
Jan 21, 2019Harris announcesher candidacy
YouGov/UMass Amherst[27]Nov 7–14, 201865519%3%6%3%10%6%14%11%1%[q]27%
Hypothetical polling with only Biden, Sanders and Warren
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Undecided
Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine[28]Oct 23–25, 2019443 (LV)35%13%41%11%

Results

[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary[29]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[30]
Joe Biden473,86133.4137
Bernie Sanders376,99026.5830
Elizabeth Warren303,86421.4324
Michael Bloomberg166,20011.72
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[a]38,4002.71
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[a]17,2971.22
Tulsi Gabbard10,5480.74
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)6,9230.49
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[a]6,7620.48
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)2,7080.19
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)1,2570.09
John Delaney(withdrawn)6750.05
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)6170.04
Cory Booker(withdrawn)4260.03
Julian Castro(withdrawn)3050.02
All Others1,9410.14
No Preference5,3450.38
Blank ballots4,0610.29
Total1,418,180100%91

Results by county

[edit]
2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary

(results per county)[29]

CountyJoe BidenBernie SandersElizabeth WarrenMichael BloombergPete ButtigiegAmy KlobucharTulsi GabbardDeval PatrickTom SteyerAndrew YangMichael BennetJohn DelaneyMarianne WilliamsonCory BookerJulian CastroNo PreferenceBlank ballotsAll OthersTotal votes cast
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Barnstable21,42338.4412,10621.729,39916.868,01114.372,1773.911,0561.893880.702130.384260.76860.15450.08180.03310.06130.0220.001860.331030.18510.0955,734
Berkshire10,97838.358,19628.635,54919.382,6349.204611.612270.791150.402100.73280.10260.09150.05110.04130.0560.02110.04800.28440.15220.0828,626
Bristol29,18136.9122,88528.9410,60613.4110,35013.092,1962.788181.036350.805470.694880.621200.15880.11460.06440.06370.05250.035040.643070.391890.2479,066
Dukes1,96232.631,63227.151,28721.4171811.941923.19991.65360.60190.32300.5080.1350.0800.0030.0520.0310.0270.1260.1050.086,012
Essex52,90033.9741,87726.8928,22018.1220,66113.274,7613.062,1111.361,4820.958520.558900.572640.171670.11790.05670.04490.03480.035860.384450.292680.17155,727
Franklin4,80423.548,18540.115,15925.281,2746.243051.491590.781610.79840.41660.32420.2180.04470.23100.0520.0110.00440.22440.22130.0620,408
Hampden23,00936.6019,26030.638,59913.687,86012.501,1701.865990.954840.775370.851410.221180.191650.26620.10300.05280.04440.073190.512570.411890.3062,871
Hampshire10,72224.3515,31834.7812,98629.493,0526.937211.644260.972310.521410.32570.13580.13170.0490.02160.0480.0260.011460.33860.20410.0944,041
Middlesex123,55330.5499,70424.64109,31827.0245,72711.3011,3022.795,3281.322,7330.681,3740.341,5170.378950.222550.061360.031240.031020.03490.011,2690.318270.204040.10404,617
Nantucket1,05540.5662423.9938414.7637314.34662.54351.35150.5890.35170.6540.1520.0840.1510.0400.0000.0090.3520.0810.042,601
Norfolk61,91437.0236,07421.5734,12620.4023,10113.814,7912.862,3171.391,3520.816580.398620.523450.211020.06550.03680.04420.03110.016940.414670.282750.16167,254
Plymouth37,27038.6423,25424.1114,21414.7413,39013.883,3523.481,4001.459330.975660.597890.821640.17600.06530.05590.06330.03190.024680.493060.321270.1396,457
Suffolk47,60829.7948,63630.4341,88526.2113,7458.602,5131.579650.608190.519740.613770.243120.202130.131030.06700.04590.04520.034640.298180.511960.12159,809
Worcester47,48235.1839,23929.0822,13216.4015,30411.344,3933.261,7571.301,1640.867390.551,0740.802660.201150.09520.04810.06450.03360.035690.423490.261600.12134,957
Total473,86133.41376,99026.58303,86421.43166,20011.7238,4002.7117,2971.2210,5480.746,9230.496,7620.482,7080.191,2570.096750.056170.044260.033050.025,3450.384,0610.291,9410.141,418,180

Analysis

[edit]
Share of the vote by city and town

According to exit polls,Biden overwhelmingly won voters over 50, followed by Warren, while Sanders did the same with voters under 40. Voters between the ages of 40 and 49 years old were split between Biden (32%) and Sanders (31%). Biden also won white voters by 8 points over Sanders and African-American voters by 7 points, whileSanders won theHispanic/Latino vote over Biden by 13 points. Sanders also won theLGBTQ+ voters overWarren and Biden by 12 and 23 points respectively.[31]

Biden carried 7 of the state's 9 congressional districts: the 1st, 3rd, 4th (where Biden got his widest margin of victory), 5th, 6th, 8th, and the 9th. Sanders carried the remaining districts.[32] The one comprised by theBoston-Metro Area showed the best performance for Sanders, and was the only district where Warren finished second.[33] This was a change from the pre-election prediction that Biden would do better in this district and Sanders worse.[34]

Notes

[edit]

Polling Notes

  1. ^abcdefCandidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
  2. ^Calculated by subtracting polled candidates from 100%
  3. ^FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  4. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^Steyer with 4%; Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 3%
  6. ^Gabbard with 2%
  7. ^Steyer with 2.4%; Gabbard with 0.8%; refused with 0.4%
  8. ^Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 2%; Would not vote with 2%
  9. ^Gabbard with 4%; Steyer with 3%
  10. ^Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%
  11. ^Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  12. ^Steyer with 4%; Yang with 3%; Booker with 0%
  13. ^Gabbard with 2%; Delaney, Steyer and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  14. ^Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock and Yang with 1%; de Blasio, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; refused with 1%
  15. ^Gabbard, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
  16. ^Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, and Yang with 1%; Gillibrand and Inslee with 0%; others with 5%
  17. ^Moulton with 1%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Biden defeats Warren in her home state of Massachusetts".Associated Press. March 3, 2020.
  2. ^Conradis, Brandon (March 3, 2020)."Biden wins major upset in Massachusetts".TheHill.
  3. ^Murray, Stephanie (March 4, 2020)."BIDEN wins Bay State SHOCKER — WARREN comes in THIRD at home — Mass. GOP rallies around TRUMP".POLITICO.
  4. ^Rakich, Nathaniel (February 28, 2020)."What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedJuly 8, 2020.
  5. ^Breuninger, Kevin (March 4, 2020)."Joe Biden wins Massachusetts primary, NBC News projects, a crushing blow to Elizabeth Warren".CNBC. RetrievedJuly 8, 2020.
  6. ^"Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedApril 4, 2020.
  7. ^"MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf".Google Docs. RetrievedApril 4, 2020.
  8. ^Putnam, Josh."The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  9. ^"2020 Democratic National Convention".Massachusetts Democratic Party. Archived fromthe original on July 24, 2019. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  10. ^ab"Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  11. ^"Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. RetrievedMarch 19, 2022.
  12. ^abMass. Elections [@VotingInMass] (December 20, 2019)."These are your 2020 Presidential Primary ballots, Massachusetts" (Tweet). RetrievedDecember 20, 2019 – viaTwitter.
  13. ^270 to Win
  14. ^FiveThirtyEight
  15. ^SwayableArchived 2020-03-03 at theWayback Machine
  16. ^Data for Progress
  17. ^Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV
  18. ^WBUR/MassINC
  19. ^UMass Amherst
  20. ^Falchuk & DiNatale
  21. ^University of Massachusetts Lowell
  22. ^Falchuk & DiNatale
  23. ^WBUR
  24. ^Suffolk University
  25. ^Suffolk University
  26. ^Emerson CollegeArchived 2019-04-20 at theWayback Machine
  27. ^YouGov/UMass Amherst
  28. ^Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine
  29. ^ab"2020 President Democratic Primary".Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. RetrievedApril 9, 2020.
  30. ^"2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". RetrievedJuly 4, 2020.
  31. ^"Exit and entrance polls from the 2020 primaries and caucuses".www.cnn.com. RetrievedApril 19, 2020.
  32. ^"MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf".Google Docs. RetrievedApril 19, 2020.
  33. ^"Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedApril 19, 2020.
  34. ^Rakich, Nathaniel (February 28, 2020)."What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedApril 19, 2020.

External links

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