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2020 Florida Senate election

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2020 Florida Senate election
← 2018November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03)2022 →
20 of the 40 seats in theFlorida Senate
21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout38.62%
 Majority partyMinority party
 
LeaderWilton SimpsonAudrey Gibson
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Leader sinceNovember 26, 2018November 19, 2018
Leader's seat10th-Trilby6th-Jacksonville
Last election23 seats, 53.99%17 seats, 45.74%
Seats won2416
Seat changeIncrease 1Decrease 1
Popular vote2,663,0762,642,318
Percentage49.03%48.65%
SwingDecrease 4.96%Increase 2.91%
Results:
     Republican gain
     Republican hold     Democratic hold
     No election
President before election

Bill Galvano
Republican

Elected President

Wilton Simpson
Republican

Elections in Florida
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The2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect statesenators from 20 of 40 districts. TheRepublican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority.[1]

The elections forU.S. President,U.S. House of Representatives, and theFlorida House of Representatives were also held on this date.[2]

Republican operatives, supported byFlorida Power & Light,[3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senatorFrank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from SenatorJosé Javier Rodríguez.[4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud.[5]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[6]Lean ROctober 21, 2020

Competitive races

[edit]

The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.[7][8]

2016 Presidential Results[9] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:

Senate districtClinton 2016 vote shareTrump 2016 vote share2020 Democratic nominee2020 Republican nominee
District 352.60% Clinton43.95% TrumpLoranne AusleyMarva Harris Preston
District 945.98% Clinton49.87% TrumpPatricia SigmanJason Brodeur
District 2043.99% Clinton52.28% TrumpKathy LewisDanny Burgess
District 3759.55% Clinton37.89% TrumpJosé Javier RodríguezIleana Garcia
District 3953.74% Clinton43.49% TrumpJavier FernandezAna Maria Rodriguez

Overview

[edit]
PartyVotes%Seats
Total
before		UpWonTotal
after		+/−
Republican Party of Florida2,663,07649.0323101124+1
Florida Democratic Party2,642,31848.651710916-1
Independent125,4972.310000-
Write-in6030.010000-
Total5,431,494100.0040202040±0
Source:Florida Division of Elections[10][11]
Popular vote
Republican
 
49.03%
Democratic
 
48.65%
Other
 
2.32%
Senate seats
Republican
 
60%
Democratic
 
40%

Closest races

[edit]

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. District 37, 0.02% gain
  2. District 9, 2.7%
  3. District 3, 6.8%
  4. District 20, 9.6%

Primary election polling

[edit]

District 27 - Republican

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Heather
Fitzhagen		Ray
Rodriguez		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[12]July 28, 2020463 (LV)± 4.6%18%59%23%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[13][A]July 20, 20201,229 (LV)± 3%22%44%34%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[14][A]June 18–19, 2020460 (LV)± 4.5%34%24%42%

District 29 - Democratic

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Tina
Polsky		Irving "Irv"
Slosberg		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[15]August 14, 2020477 (LV)± 4.5%49%37%13%

District 39 - Democratic

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Javier E.
Fernandez		Daniel "Dan"
Horton-Diaz		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[16]August 1–2, 2020203 (LV)± 6.9%24%16%61%

Retiring incumbents

[edit]

Democrats

[edit]

Republicans

[edit]

General election polling

[edit]

District 3

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Loranne
Ausley (D)		Marva
Preston (R)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[17]October 17–18, 2020948 (LV)–51%44%5%
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[18][B]October 15, 2020503 (V)–48%40%–

District 9

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Jason
Brodeur (R)		Patricia
Sigman (D)		Jestine
Ianotti (I)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[19]October 31 – November 1, 2020522 (LV)± 4.3%42%49%2%7%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[20]October 17–18, 2020490 (LV)± 4.4%43%52%–5%
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[21][C]October 16, 2020400 (V)–42%42%––

District 20

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Danny
Burgess (R)		Kathy
Lewis (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[22]October 24–25, 2020644 (LV)± 3.9%45%44%12%

District 37

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		José Javier
Rodríguez (D)		Ileana
Garcia (R)
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[23][D]October 13, 2020400 (V)–42%37%

District 39

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ana Maria
Rodriguez (R)		Javier
Fernandez (D)
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[24][E]October 9, 2020503 (V)–43%43%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC[25]September 8–11, 2020– (V)[b]–37%31%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC[26]July, 2020– (V)[c]–31%28%

Results

[edit]
District 1 •District 3 •District 5 •District 7 •District 9 •District 11 •District 13 •District 15 •District 17 •District 19 •District 20 •District 21 •District 23 •District 25 •District 27 •District 29 •District 31 •District 35 •District 37 •District 39

[27]

District 1

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDouglas V. Broxson185,38065.3%
DemocraticKaren M. Butler98,40734.7%
Total votes293,787100%
Republicanhold

District 3

[edit]
2020 Florida's 3rd State Senate district candidate forum
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Loranne AusleyMarva Preston
1Sep. 22, 2020League of Women Voters ofTallahassee
Tallahassee Democrat		Jim RosicaYouTubePP
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticLoranne Ausley137,60953.4%
RepublicanMarva Harris Preston120,17646.6%
Total votes257,785100%
Democratichold

District 5

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJennifer Bradley194,19874.8%
DemocraticStacey L. Peters65,56825.2%
Total votes259,766100%
Republicanhold

District 7

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanTravis J. Hutson212,57761.7%
DemocraticHeather Hunter131,76338.3%
IndependentRichard Dembinsky (Write in)130.0%
Total votes344,353100%
Republicanhold

District 9

[edit]
2020 Florida's 9th State Senate district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Jason BrodeurPatricia Sigman
1Oct. 6, 2020WESHGreg FoxYouTubePP
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJason Brodeur141,54450.3%
DemocraticPatricia Sigman133,90047.6%
IndependentJestine Iannotti5,7872.1%
Total votes281,231100%
Republicanhold

District 11

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticRandolph Bracy147,24465.0%
RepublicanJoshua Eli Adams79,22435.0%
Total votes226,468100%
Democratichold

District 13

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticLinda Stewart152,76960.6%
RepublicanJosh Anderson99,13439.4%
Total votes251,903100%
Democratichold

District 15

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticVictor M. Torres180,18557.1%
RepublicanLouis T. Minnis123,15339.0%
IndependentMike James12,2073.9%
Total votes315,545100%
Democratichold

District 17

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDebbie Mayfield193,56060.6%
DemocraticScot Fretwell114,51535.9%
IndependentPhillip Snyder11,3233.5%
Total votes319,398100%
Republicanhold

District 19

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticDarryl Ervin Rouson174,34368.7%
IndependentChristina Paylan79,46331.3%
Total votes253,806100%
Democratichold

District 20

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDanny Burgess141,60754.8%
DemocraticKathy Lewis116,68545.2%
Total votes258,292100%
Republicanhold

District 21

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJim Boyd191,67361.0%
DemocraticAnthony "Tony" Eldon122,48039.0%
Total votes314,153100%
Republicanhold

District 23

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJoe Gruters188,12657.7%
DemocraticKatherine Norman131,49140.3%
IndependentRobert Kaplan6,6962.1%
Total votes326,313100%
Republicanhold

District 25

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanGayle Harrell168,06358.7
DemocraticCorinna Robinson118,21141.3
Total votes286,274100.0
Republicanhold

District 27

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRay Rodrigues176,95460.5%
DemocraticRachel Brown115,53739.5%
Total votes292,491100%
Republicanhold

District 29

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticTina Polsky156,44155.7%
RepublicanBrian Norton124,50244.3%
Total votes280,943100%
Democratichold

District 31

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticLori Berman156,49562.2%
RepublicanTami Donnally95,01937.8%
Total votes251,514100%
Democratichold

District 35

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticShevrin "Shev" Jones188,94299.7%
IndependentDarien Hill (Write in)5900.3%
Total votes189,532100%
Democratichold

District 37

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanIleana Garcia104,63048.53%
DemocraticJosé Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent)104,59848.51%
IndependentAlex Rodriguez6,3822.96%
Total votes215,610100%
Republicangain fromDemocratic

District 39

[edit]
Florida 2020 Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanAna Maria Rodriguez123,55655.6%
DemocraticJavier E. Fernandez95,13542.8%
IndependentCelso D. Alfonso3,6391.6%
Total votes222,330100%
Republicanhold

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Not yet released
  3. ^Not yet released

Partisan clients

  1. ^abPoll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
  2. ^The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
  3. ^The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
  4. ^The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
  5. ^The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Florida State Senate elections, 2020".Ballotpedia. RetrievedDecember 3, 2020.
  2. ^"Florida 2020 General Election".
  3. ^Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021)."Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report".orlandosentinel.com. RetrievedDecember 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. ^Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021)."Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races".WESH. RetrievedDecember 2, 2021.
  5. ^Harper, Mark."Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine".Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. RetrievedDecember 2, 2021.
  6. ^"October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedNovember 1, 2020.
  7. ^Call, James."Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat".Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. RetrievedSeptember 26, 2020.
  8. ^Wilson, Kirby."Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?".Tampa Bay Times. RetrievedSeptember 26, 2020.
  9. ^"Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx".Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. RetrievedSeptember 26, 2020.
  10. ^"Election Results Data Extract Utility".results.elections.myflorida.com. RetrievedDecember 3, 2020.
  11. ^"Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State".dos.myflorida.com. RetrievedDecember 3, 2020.
  12. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  13. ^Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen
  14. ^Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen
  15. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  16. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  17. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  18. ^ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  19. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  20. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  21. ^GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  22. ^St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  23. ^SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  24. ^GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  25. ^Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC
  26. ^Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC
  27. ^"2020 Florida State Senate Election Results".results.elections.myflorida.com.

External links

[edit]
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