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2019 Prince Edward Island electoral reform referendum

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Canadian provincial referendum

Electoral System Referendum

April 23, 2019 (2019-04-23)
Should Prince Edward Island change its voting system to a mixed member proportional voting system?[1]
Websitereferendumpei.ca
Results
Choice
Votes%
Yes39,51648.26%
No42,37251.74%
Valid votes81,888100.00%
Invalid or blank votes00.00%
Total votes81,888100.00%
Registered voters/turnout107,10976.45%

Results bydistrict

Areferendum on electoral reform was held on April 23, 2019, in theCanadian province ofPrince Edward Island – simultaneously with the2019 provincial election – to determine if the province should adopt amixed-member proportional representation voting system (MMP). A narrow majority voted to keep the existingfirst-past-the-post system. However, the referendum was not binding, as neither the yes or no side received majority support in 60% or more of the province's 27 electoral districts.

Background

[edit]

Areferendum on the issue had been held October 27 to November 7, 2016. That referendum had asked which of fivevoting systems residents would prefer to use in electing members to theLegislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island.[2][3][4] The 2016 referendum, after four instant run-off rounds, had indicated thatmixed member proportional representation was the preferred choice with over 52% support on the final ballot.[5]

PremierWade MacLauchlan said after the vote that he was doubtful the result of the referendum "can be said to constitute a clear expression of the will of Prince Edward Islanders" due to the low voter turnout relative to provincial general elections.[6] As the result of political pressure, MacLauchlan's government introduced a motion in theLegislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island to hold another referendum on electoral reform at thenext provincial general election, stating that the low turnout for the referendum did not provide a mandate to implement the change and the need for a more specific referendum question with two choices.[7][8] A motion byGreen Party leaderPeter Bevan-Baker to implement mixed-member proportional representation in line with the referendum results was defeated on November 22, 2016, by a vote of 6–20.[9]

On June 12, 2018, legislation governing the new referendum passed in the legislature.[10][11]

Referendum question and threshold

[edit]

The Electoral System Referendum Act passed by theLegislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island on June 13, 2018, set the referendum question as:[12]

Should Prince Edward Island change its voting system to a mixed member proportional voting system?

  • No
  • Yes

(According to the Act, "No" was required to appear on the referendum ballot above "Yes")

In order for the referendum to be legally binding, either side was required to receive a majority of voters in at least 60% (17) of the province's 27 provincial electoral districts.[13][14] Before the results were announced, Gerard Mitchell, the referendum commissioner, confirmed the 60% threshold saying if the vote was close "whoever is governing will have to make a decision".[15][16]

Campaign

[edit]

The campaign period for the referendum began on February 1, 2019, and applications opened for Yes and No campaigns to apply for public funding.[17]

During the campaign, Premier (andLiberal leader)Wade MacLauchlan did not take a public position on the vote. The leaders of all other parties, however, were on record as supporting a move to MMP.[18] The leaders were also asked about their referendum positions in theCBC Leaders' Debate.[19]

The form of MMP proposed would have had 18 district seats and nine island-wide top-up seats filled in compensatory fashion to address disproportionality of the district winners.[20]

Open list PR was to be used to fill the top-up seats. The voter's marked preference on the Party Vote part of the ballot "would be used to determine each party's province-wide popular vote, and the number of votes each candidate on the party list receives will determine their ranking."[21] The party share of popular vote would determine the party's share of total seats, and if the party did not win that many district seats, the party would receive top-up seats, if possible, with the party's top-up seats being allocated to the most-popular of the party's top-up candidates.[21] A sample MMP ballot was issued during the campaign.[3]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeNoYesUnsureLead
14–17 Apr 2019Mainstreet Research63648.8%51.2%2.4%
12–15 Apr 2019Narrative Research/The Guardian53842%42%16%Tie
11–16 Apr 2019MQO Research40035%47%18%12%
7 Nov 20162016 plebiscite37,04042.8%52.4%9.6%

Results

[edit]

The referendum was defeated, with 15 districts voting to adopt MMP and 12 voting to maintain the current system.[22] The popular vote was a narrow majority in favour of keeping the current first-past-the-post system. Neither side, however, received a majority in 60% of districts (17/27) and therefore the referendum was not binding on the government.[13][14] A recount in District 20 widened the FPTP victory somewhat, with the final popular vote approximately 52% for FPTP and 48% for MMP.[23]

OptionDistrict votePopular vote
Districts won%Votes%
No
Current FPTP system retained
1348.15%42,37251.74
Yes
Province adopts MMP as electoral system
1451.85%39,51648.26
Source:Elections PEI

Analysis

[edit]
2019 PEI referendum - synopsis of riding results, grouped by federal riding[a 1]
Riding (and number)ChoiceMajorityWinner
YesNoTotalYesNoYesNo
Cardigan
Belfast-Murray River41,3381,5852,923247Green tickY
Georgetown-Pownal21,4481,5893,037141Green tickY
Mermaid-Stratford51,7361,2713,007465Green tickY
Montague-Kilmuir31,3391,5862,925247Green tickY
Morell-Donagh71,3751,6263,001251Green tickY
Souris-Elmira11,2031,7632,966560Green tickY
Stanhope-Marshfield81,6981,5643,262134Green tickY
Stratford-Keppoch61,6651,3002,965365Green tickY
Malpeque
Borden-Kinkora191,5111,6653,176154Green tickY
Brackley-Hunter River151,5681,5443,11224Green tickY
Cornwall-Meadowbank161,7691,6193,388150Green tickY
Kensington-Malpeque[a 2]201,5481,6553,203107Green tickY
New Haven-Rocky Point171,9191,5393,458380Green tickY
Rustico-Emerald181,6961,6193,31577Green tickY
Charlottetown
Charlottetown-Belvedere111,5991,5713,17028Green tickY
Charlottetown-Brighton131,8931,3163,209577Green tickY
Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park91,3659972,362368Green tickY
Charlottetown-Victoria Park122,0411,0783,119963Green tickY
Charlottetown-West Royalty141,5831,4152,998168Green tickY
Charlottetown-Winsloe101,7871,5723,359215Green tickY
Egmont
Alberton-Bloomfield265952,2712,8661,676Green tickY
Evangeline-Miscouche241,0791,3292,408250Green tickY
O'Leary-Inverness256671,9922,6591,325Green tickY
Summerside-South Drive221,4651,4762,94111Green tickY
Summerside-Wilmot211,6241,5703,19454Green tickY
Tignish-Palmer Road275902,1992,7891,609Green tickY
Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke231,4151,6613,076246Green tickY
Totals
Votes39,51642,37281,8883,9686,8241413
Percent48.2651.74100.004.848.33
  1. ^"2019 Referendum Results".Elections Prince Edward Island. 2019.
  2. ^initial count showed a Yes majority
  = results revised on recount

Aftermath

[edit]

Following the preliminary results, Brenda Oslawsky of Vote Yes P.E.I. said that the result showed there was "significant support" for MMP, and that the group was calling on the government to convene a citizens assembly to study electoral reform.[22] Responding to the results,Progressive Conservative leaderDennis King said Islanders have an interest in furthering the conversation on how they govern themselves and elect members of the legislature. He said he would like to see continued discussion of electoral reform in the Legislature.[24]Peter Bevan-Baker, leader of theGreen Party, called the results "agonizingly close" and said it is inevitable that proportional representation is coming but that PEI is not going to be the province leading the charge.[13]

John Barrett of No What to Vote said the result was closer than expected but they were pleased with the result overall.[25][26] Calling the result decisive, he said "Fifty-one per cent is a win and we'll take it".[13] Barrett also said electoral reform is not off the table going forward, noting that his group was not opposed to electoral reform, only the specific model which had been proposed (MMP).[26]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2019 Provincial General Election"(PDF). Chief Electoral Office of PEI. April 23, 2019.
  2. ^Roberts, Rob (July 7, 2016)."PEI sets voting-reform plebiscite for fall".The Globe and Mail. Toronto. RetrievedOctober 2, 2016.
  3. ^McKenna, Peter (September 21, 2016)."Electoral reform in P.E.I. redux". Charlottetown, PEI:The Guardian Charlottetown. Archived fromthe original on October 3, 2016. RetrievedOctober 2, 2016.
  4. ^Campbell, Kerry (April 16, 2016)."P.E.I. electoral reform: 4 unanswered questions about the plebiscite". CBC.Archived from the original on October 5, 2016. RetrievedOctober 2, 2016.
  5. ^Bradley, Susan (November 8, 2016)."P.E.I. plebiscite results favour mixed member proportional representation".CBC News. RetrievedNovember 8, 2016.
  6. ^Sinclair, Jesara (November 8, 2016)."Premier calls plebiscite results 'debatable,' cites low turnout".CBC News. RetrievedNovember 11, 2016.
  7. ^"Motion No. 80, Democratic renewal: a clear question and a binding vote".www.assembly.pe.ca. Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island. Archived fromthe original on March 28, 2019. RetrievedJune 13, 2018.
  8. ^Wright, Teresa (November 22, 2016)."Motion urging P.E.I. government to honour electoral reform vote defeated".The Guardian. Charlottetown. Archived fromthe original on November 24, 2016. RetrievedNovember 25, 2016.
  9. ^"Motion No. 54 , Plebiscite on electoral reform".www.assembly.pe.ca. Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island.
  10. ^"Much-amended P.E.I. referendum legislation passes".CBC News. June 12, 2018. RetrievedJune 13, 2018.
  11. ^Ross, Ryan (June 13, 2018)."Liberals vote to support P.E.I. referendum bill".The Guardian. RetrievedJune 14, 2018.
  12. ^The Canadian Press (June 12, 2018)."PEI poised for battle over electoral reform".Toronto Star. RetrievedJune 14, 2018.
  13. ^abcdThe Canadian Press (April 24, 2019)."Slim majority vote 'no' to electoral reform in P.E.I. referendum".CTV News. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2019. RetrievedApril 25, 2019.
  14. ^abSection 4 ofElectoral System Referendum Act, RSPEI 1988, c E-2.2 available at[1] and onCanLII at[2].
  15. ^Tutton, Michael (April 23, 2019)."Prince Edward Island voters say 'no' to electoral reform referendum by slim majority".Global News. RetrievedApril 25, 2019.
  16. ^Tutton, Michael (April 24, 2019)."P.E.I. Voters Narrowly Reject Switch To Proportional Representation In Referendum".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on April 25, 2019. RetrievedApril 25, 2019.
  17. ^Neatby, Stu (January 31, 2019)."Election in the air: P.E.I. electoral reform referendum campaigning period begins Feb. 1".The Guardian. Charlottetown. RetrievedFebruary 1, 2019.
  18. ^Campbell, Kerry (April 4, 2019)."Leaders say they will honour the vote in P.E.I's referendum on electoral reform".CBC News. RetrievedApril 25, 2019.
  19. ^CBC News (April 16, 2019)."Watch the CBC P.E.I. Leaders Debate April 16".CBC News. RetrievedApril 25, 2019.
  20. ^"Electoral System Referendum Act".
  21. ^abSchedule 2, Election System Referendum Act. p. 23.
  22. ^abSmith, Katie (April 23, 2019)."P.E.I. voters split on electoral reform".The Guardian. Charlottetown, PEI. RetrievedApril 24, 2019.
  23. ^CBC News (May 17, 2019)."Elections P.E.I. discovers error in referendum vote count".CBC News. RetrievedMay 24, 2019.
  24. ^Yarr, Kevin (April 24, 2019)."P.E.I.'s new minority government will proceed 'issue-by-issue,' says premier designate".CBC News. RetrievedApril 24, 2019.
  25. ^Smith, Katie (April 24, 2019)."'No' side pleased with status quo after P.E.I. electoral reform referendum".The Guardian. Charlottetown, PEI. RetrievedApril 24, 2019.
  26. ^abCBC News (April 24, 2019)."What's next for the referendum question on P.E.I.?".CBC News. RetrievedApril 25, 2019.

External links

[edit]
General elections
Municipal elections
Referendums
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