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2018 United States Senate election in Utah

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States Senate election in Utah

← 2012November 6, 20182024 →
Turnout74.15%Increase
 
NomineeMitt RomneyJenny Wilson
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote665,215328,541
Percentage62.59%30.91%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Romney:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Wilson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitt Romney
Republican

Elections in Utah
Ballot measures

The2018 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the State ofUtah, concurrently withother elections to the United States Senate,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections. The primaries took place on June 26.[1]

IncumbentRepublican senatorOrrin Hatch announced in January 2018 that he would retire and not seek reelection to an eighth term, making this the first open seat U.S. Senate election in Utah since1992 and the first in this seat since1905. This was the first Senate election since 1964 thatGrand County voted Democratic.

The general election was won byMitt Romney, who had been the Republican nominee forpresident in2012 and previously was the 70thgovernor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. Romney became only the third person in American history to be elected governor and U.S. senator in different states, and the first former major party presidential nominee to run for a new office sinceWalter Mondale in2002.[2]

Background

[edit]

Process

[edit]

Utah's 2018 U.S. Senate candidates had dual routes toward placement on theprimary election ballot: (1) eligibility via win or second-place showings at a convention of delegates selected from party localcaucuses; and/or (2) eligibility via obtaining sufficientpetition signatures.

Taking the traditional route, the top two candidates for the U.S. Senate at any of theparty state conventions (to be held in the latter part of April, 2018) would be placed on the June 26 primary election ballot. Also, any candidate who collected 28,000 ballot-access petition signatures would be placed on the primary ballot.

If no competitor achieved the above-mentioned alternate access to the primary ballot through collected signatures and a convention winner achieved sixty-percent of delegate votes, this candidate straightaway received his or her party's nomination solely via the older-style caucuses-convention system. Otherwise, a candidate would be nominated through receiving a plurality of votes in the primary election and thereby advance to the November general election.

IncumbentOrrin Hatch did not seek reelection.[3]

Hatch to retire

[edit]

Incumbent Republican U.S. SenatorOrrin Hatch was reelected to a seventh term in 2012. During his 2012 reelection campaign, he had pledged that if he were elected, it would be his last term.[4] Hatch won his first election in 1976 in part by criticizing the incumbent's 18-year tenure. Hatch initially announced a re-election campaign on March 9, 2017,[5][6][7][8] though he also said at that time that he might withdraw from the race ifMitt Romney decided to run.[9] An August 19–21, 2016 poll conducted byPublic Policy Polling found only 19% of voters wanted Hatch to run in 2018, while 71% wanted him to retire.[10] On October 27, 2017, Hatch reportedly told friends privately that he was going to retire in 2019[11] and on January 2, 2018, made a public announcement of his plans to retire at the end of his current term in January 2019.[3]

Republican primary

[edit]
Romney campaigning
Kennedy campaigning
People voting in the Republican primary

Convention

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary election

[edit]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Loy Brunson
  • Alicia Colvin[14]
  • Stoney Fonua, tax accountant[14]
  • Chris Forbush, attorney and candidate for theNevada State Assembly in 2016[15]
  • Jeremy Friedbaum[14]
  • Timothy Adrian Jimenez, engineer[16]
  • Joshua Lee
  • Larry Michael Meyers, attorney[17]
  • Gayle Painter[14]
  • Samuel Parker[14]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Larry Meyers (eliminated at convention)
Individuals

Results

[edit]
State Republican Convention results, 2018
CandidateFirst ballotPct.Second ballotPct.
Mike Kennedy1,35440.69%1,64250.88%
Mitt Romney1,53946.24%1,58549.12%
Larry Meyers1634.90%Eliminated
Samuel Parker1223.67%Eliminated
Timothy Jiminez1003.01%Eliminated
Alicia Colvin290.87%Eliminated
Stoney Fonua70.21%Eliminated
Loy Brunson40.12%Eliminated
Joshua Lee20.06%Eliminated
Chris Forbush00%Eliminated
Gayle Painter00%Eliminated
Total3,328100.00%3,227100.00%

Primary

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Host
network
DateLink(s)Participants
Mitt
Romney
Mike
Kennedy
KBYU-TVMay 29, 2018[26]InvitedInvited

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Kennedy
Mitt
Romney
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[27]June 11–18, 2018356± 5.2%23%65%12%
Dan Jones & Associates[28]May 15–25, 2018295± 5.7%24%67%9%
Hypothetical polling

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch
Jon
Huntsman Jr.
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[29]January 9–16, 2017605± 4.0%21%62%16%

Endorsements

[edit]
Mitt Romney
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
U.S. governors
Statewide officeholders
Individuals
Newspapers and magazines
Mike Kennedy
State legislators
Individuals

Debates

[edit]
DateHostModeratorLink(s)Participants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Mike KennedyMitt Romney
May 29, 2018Utah Debate CommissionDavid Magleby[57]PP

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Romney
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Kennedy
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[58]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMitt Romney240,02171.27%
RepublicanMike Kennedy96,77128.73%
Total votes336,792100%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Mitchell Kent Vice, businessman[60]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jenny Wilson
U.S. representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Mitchell Vice
Organizations

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Craig Bowden, veteran and businessman[70]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Independent American Party

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • Ryan Daniel Jackson (I, write-in)
  • Abe Korb (I, write-in)[71]
  • Caleb Dan Reeve (I, write-in)[71]

Debates

[edit]
DateHostModeratorLink(s)Participants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Mitt
Romney
Jenny
Wilson
October 9, 2018Utah Debate CommissionBruce Lindsay[73]PP

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[74]Safe ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections[75]Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[76]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[77]Likely RJuly 9, 2018
CNN[78]Safe RJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[79]Safe RNovember 5, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements

[edit]
Mitt Romney (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
U.S. governors
Statewide officeholders
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and magazines
Jenny Wilson (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitt
Romney (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Utah[84]October 3–9, 2018607± 4.0%59%23%8%10%
Dan Jones & Associates[85]August 22–31, 2018809± 3.4%55%29%8%[86]7%
Lighthouse Research[87]August 11–27, 20182,40059%19%9%[88]14%
University of Utah[89]June 11–18, 2018654± 3.9%58%20%21%
Dan Jones & Associates[90]January 15–18, 2018803± 3.5%64%19%12%
Dan Jones & Associates[91]November 16–21, 2017600± 4.0%72%21%7%
Dan Jones & Associates[92]August 30 – September 5, 2017[note 1]608± 4.0%64%26%10%

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^The party affiliations of candidates were not described in the question wording as a result of an oversight by the pollster.
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitt
Romney (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Craig
Bowden (L)
Dan
McCay (R)
Mitchell
Vice (D)
Larry
Meyers (R)
Alicia
Colvin (R)
Jay
Hyatt (R)
L'Capi
Titus (R)
Timothy
Jimenez (R)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates[93]February 9–16, 2018609± 4.0%60%14%3%2%1%1%1%1%0%0%2%14%

with Mike Kennedy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Kennedy (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[27]June 11–18, 2018654± 3.9%43%28%29%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[91]November 16–21, 2017600± 4.0%50%35%15%
Dan Jones & Associates[92]August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%34%45%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
JMC Analytics[94]March 18–March 20, 2017625± 3.9%29%33%11%10%17%

with Chris Stewart

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chris
Stewart (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[92]August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%34%30%36%

with Matt Holland

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Matt
Holland (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[92]August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%23%30%47%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018[95]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanMitt Romney665,21562.59%−2.72%
DemocraticJenny Wilson328,54130.91%+0.93%
ConstitutionTim Aalders28,7742.71%−0.46%
LibertarianCraig Bowden27,6072.60%N/A
Independent AmericanReed McCandless12,7081.20%N/A
Write-in52<0.01%N/A
Total votes1,062,897100%N/A
Republicanhold
State Senate district results
State House district results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Romney won all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[96]

DistrictRomneyWilsonRepresentative
1st67%25%Rob Bishop
2nd57%36%Chris Stewart
3rd68%26%John Curtis
4th59%36%Mia Love
Ben McAdams

References

[edit]
  1. ^Wood, Benjamin (June 26, 2018)."Mitt Romney claims GOP nomination in Utah's U.S. Senate race".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedJune 26, 2018.
  2. ^"3 decades of presidential losers: Where are they now?".theweek.com. December 26, 2012. RetrievedSeptember 27, 2020.
  3. ^abMartin, Jonathan (January 2, 2018)."Orrin Hatch to Retire from Senate, Opening Path for Mitt Romney".The New York Times. RetrievedJanuary 2, 2018.
  4. ^Lederman, Josh (March 14, 2012)."Hatch will retire in 2018 if he wins reelection".The Hill. RetrievedOctober 20, 2016.
  5. ^Romboy, Dennis (November 6, 2014)."Sen. Orrin Hatch leaves door ajar for run in 2018".Deseret News. RetrievedOctober 20, 2016.
  6. ^Rolly, Paul (September 23, 2016)."When Hatch said he wouldn't run again, he was just kidding".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedOctober 20, 2016.
  7. ^Everett, Burgess; Palmer, Anna (October 19, 2016)."Hatch may reverse himself and run in 2018".Politico. RetrievedOctober 20, 2016.
  8. ^abRaju, Manu (March 9, 2017)."First on CNN: After lobbying from Trump, Orrin Hatch plans to run again".CNN. RetrievedMarch 11, 2017.
  9. ^Prignano, Christina (March 31, 2017)."Utah Senator says he may forgo '18 run if Mitt Romney runs for his seat".The Boston Globe. RetrievedApril 2, 2017.
  10. ^Jensen, Tom (August 24, 2016)."Utah Ready for Hatch to Move On; More Progressive Than You Might Think".Public Policy Polling. RetrievedOctober 20, 2016.
  11. ^Linskey, Annie (October 27, 2017)."A Hatch retirement — and a Romney Senate run — could be inching closer to reality".The Boston Globe. RetrievedJanuary 2, 2018.
  12. ^"Mitt Romney is officially running for U.S. Senate".USA Today.
  13. ^McKenzie Stauffer; Heidi Hatch (June 26, 2018)."Mitt Romney wins against Mike Kennedy, Rep. Curtis defeats Herrod for second time".KUTV.com. RetrievedJuly 15, 2018.
  14. ^abcdeCathcart, Preston (March 14, 2018)."Candidates file for congressional, Utah legislative races".Deseret News. RetrievedMarch 15, 2018.
  15. ^"Op-ed: It's time to invite Sen. Orrin Hatch to come home".DeseretNews.com. August 7, 2017. Archived fromthe original on August 9, 2017. RetrievedAugust 22, 2017.
  16. ^"Tooelean wants to capture U.S. Senate seat". RetrievedFebruary 11, 2018.
  17. ^"St. George attorney announces run for GOP US Senate nomination".StGeorgeUtah.com. January 6, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2018.
  18. ^Bowman, Bridget (April 28, 2017)."Rob Bishop Discounts Prospect of Senate Run".Roll Call. RetrievedApril 30, 2017.
  19. ^Viebeck, Elise (April 19, 2017)."Chaffetz will leave behind Oversight panel he used to investigate Obama White House".Washington Post. RetrievedApril 19, 2017.
  20. ^abRogin, Josh (November 8, 2016)."What is Evan McMullin's endgame?".The Washington Post. RetrievedNovember 11, 2016.
  21. ^abc"Mia Love on Twitter".
  22. ^Samuels, Brett (November 20, 2017)."Prominent conservative passes on Utah Senate bid".The Hill.
  23. ^Burr, Thomas; Canham, Matt (November 16, 2016)."Sen. Orrin Hatch considers re-election run, Evan McMullin won't rule out his own bid".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedDecember 4, 2016.
  24. ^Weaver, Jennifer (April 16, 2018)."Ammon Bundy endorses Meyers for U.S. Senate citing his support of limited government".KUTV. RetrievedApril 16, 2018.
  25. ^Romboy, Dennis (April 6, 2018)."Former GOP gubernatorial candidate endorses Larry Myers for U.S. Senate".Deseret News. RetrievedApril 7, 2018.
  26. ^"- YouTube".YouTube.
  27. ^abDan Jones & Associates
  28. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  29. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  30. ^ab"Romney falls short in Utah GOP convention, forced into primary for Senate seat".Politico. April 22, 2018.
  31. ^abDonald J. Trump [@realdonaldtrump] (February 19, 2018).".@MittRomney has announced he is running for the Senate from the wonderful State of Utah. He will make a great Senator and worthy successor to @OrrinHatch, and has my full support and endorsement!" (Tweet).Archived from the original on December 16, 2020. RetrievedMay 7, 2021 – viaTwitter.
  32. ^ab"Jeff Flake wants Mitt Romney to run for U.S. Senate in Utah".NBC News.
  33. ^ab"Lindsey Graham on Twitter".
  34. ^ab"ChuckGrassley on Twitter".
  35. ^abKaczynski, Andrew."Sen. Orrin Hatch: Romney will 'have my support' if he runs for Senate". CNN.
  36. ^ab"John McCain on Twitter".
  37. ^ab"Mitch McConnell: "We're all behind" Mitt Romney".CBS News.
  38. ^ab"Romney, favored in Senate bid, could take on outsized role". February 18, 2018.
  39. ^ab"Richard Shelby on Mitt Romney for U.S. Senate: 'I hope he will run - I would encourage him to run' - Yellowhammer News - Yellowhammer News".yellowhammernews.com. January 7, 2018.
  40. ^ab"Jason Chaffetz Makes Comical Defense of Romney's Utah Senate Run: 'He's Got a Utah Driver's License'".www.mediaite.com.
  41. ^ab"Paul Ryan on Twitter".
  42. ^abBeavers, Olivia (January 15, 2018)."Jeb Bush backs Romney for Utah Senate run".
  43. ^ab"Luis Fortuño on Twitter".
  44. ^ab"Utah Gov. Herbert says Romney should run for the Senate".
  45. ^ab"Spencer Cox on Twitter".
  46. ^ab"Jon Huntsman Sr. backs Mitt Romney for Senate, says he'd represent Utah 'very, very well'".
  47. ^abMcMullin, Evan."Thank you for your service to our state and country, Senator Hatch. In this seat, we must have a leader prepared to meet the challenges of our day and our future. I hope that leader will be @MittRomney".
  48. ^abMilbank, Dana (December 29, 2017)."Opinion - Run, Mitt, run" – via www.washingtonpost.com.
  49. ^ab"Wall Street, big business start backing Mitt Romney's Senate bid as GOP establishment seeks stronger leadership in Congress".CNBC. April 16, 2018.
  50. ^abcd"Romney for Senate".National Review. January 10, 2018.
  51. ^ab"Bay State can only wish Romney luck in a Utah run - Lowell Sun". Archived fromthe original on February 20, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 19, 2018.
  52. ^ab"Tribune Editorial: Mitt Romney should be a savior for Republicans and run for Senate".
  53. ^abcdefghijk"Endorsements | Mike Kennedy for US Senate".www.kennedyforutah.com. Archived fromthe original on June 18, 2018. RetrievedJune 17, 2018.
  54. ^abRomboy, Dennis (June 8, 2018)."Not all lawmakers on candidate Mike Kennedy's endorsement list actually back him".DeseretNews.com. Archived fromthe original on October 5, 2019. RetrievedJune 17, 2018.
  55. ^"Michael Johns on Twitter".Twitter.
  56. ^Dr. Mike Kennedy."ENDORSEMENT ALERT🚨Robert C. Oaks (Ret.) 4 Star General, USAF. Honorary Chairman for 2016 @realDonaldTrump campaign in Utah".Twitter.
  57. ^YouTube
  58. ^"United States Senate primary election in Utah, 2018"(PDF). Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on February 28, 2019. RetrievedJune 6, 2019.
  59. ^Burr, Thomas (July 17, 2017)."SL County Councilwoman Wilson launches 2018 Senate bid, hoping to take on Orrin Hatch".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedJuly 17, 2017.
  60. ^Witham, Joseph (May 22, 2017)."Mitchell Vice joins 2 other Democrats vying for Hatch's Senate seat in 2018".St. George News. RetrievedAugust 18, 2017.
  61. ^Schott, Bryan (April 12, 2017)."Another Democrat looking to knock off Hatch in 2018".Utah Policy. RetrievedApril 12, 2017.
  62. ^"Thank You".Danny Drew For U.S. Senate. Archived fromthe original on October 4, 2017. RetrievedOctober 2, 2017.
  63. ^Tribune, Courtney Tanner The Salt Lake."Navajo candidate announces bid as Democrat for Hatch's seat".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedMay 17, 2017.
  64. ^Breiner, Andrew (June 21, 2017)."Navajo Candidate Drops Out of Race Against Hatch".Roll Call. RetrievedJune 21, 2017.
  65. ^"Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams running for Congress | KSL.com". RetrievedOctober 19, 2017.
  66. ^abMeng, Grace.".@JennyWilsonUT is fighting to bring honest, fair, and results-focused leadership to Utah, and I can't wait to watch her ride the #BlueWave2018 to victory in November!".
  67. ^abEscamilla, Luz."Excited for @UtahDemocrats Caucus at Rose Park Elementary and proud to be a surrogate for our next US Senator @JennyWilsonUT".
  68. ^UT, Jenny Wilson for."Thank you for your support, @IronStache! 2018 is going to be a great year".
  69. ^"Mitchell Vice for United States Senate – Every American Thriving by Reinventing Politics".votevice.com.
  70. ^Bernick, Bob (August 18, 2016)."Bishop Holds Vast Lead Over Clemens in Utah's 1st Congressional District". Utah Policy.
  71. ^abcd"2018 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections".elections.utah.gov.
  72. ^"REED C."[permanent dead link]
  73. ^C-SPAN
  74. ^"2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMarch 13, 2021.
  75. ^"2018 Senate Ratings".The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedMarch 13, 2021.
  76. ^"2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedOctober 11, 2017.
  77. ^"2018 Senate Power Rankings".Fox News. RetrievedJuly 10, 2018.
  78. ^"Key Races: Senate". RetrievedJuly 15, 2018.
  79. ^"Battle for the Senate 2018". RetrievedJuly 15, 2018.
  80. ^Mike Kennedy [@KennedyForUtah] (June 27, 2018)."As I told him last night, he will have my support and help" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  81. ^"Utah – Official UAW Endorsements".uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  82. ^"Utah AFL-CIO Election Endorsements".utahaflcio.org. August 23, 2016. Archived fromthe original on July 6, 2018. RetrievedJuly 6, 2018.
  83. ^"Utah Stonewall Democrats - 2018 Primary Election Endorsements".www.utahstonewalldems.org. Archived fromthe original on July 6, 2018. RetrievedJuly 6, 2018.
  84. ^University of Utah
  85. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  86. ^Tim Aalders (C) with 4%, Reed McCandless (IA) and Craig Bowden (L) with 2%
  87. ^Lighthouse Research
  88. ^Craig Bowden (L) and Reed McCandless (IA) with 3%, Tim Aalders (C) with 2%, other with 1%
  89. ^University of Utah
  90. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  91. ^abDan Jones & Associates
  92. ^abcdDan Jones & Associates
  93. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  94. ^JMC Analytics
  95. ^"United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018"(PDF). Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on April 16, 2021. RetrievedJune 6, 2019.
  96. ^"DRA 2020".Daves Redistricting. RetrievedAugust 19, 2024.

External links

[edit]

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