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| Turnout | 58.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional districts results Precinct resultsHawley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McCaskill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the State ofMissouri, concurrently withother elections to the United States Senate,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections, including Missouri's quadrennialState Auditor election.
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a stateDonald Trump won in the2016 presidential election. IncumbentDemocratic SenatorClaire McCaskill ran for re-election to a third term. McCaskill easily won her party's nomination, defeating several minor candidates in the primary, while Missouri Attorney GeneralJosh Hawley comfortably won theRepublican primary.[2]
The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[3] Pollsters predicted a tight race; however, Hawley defeated McCaskill on election day by 5.8%, taking 51.4% of the vote to McCaskill's 45.6%, a somewhat larger margin than expected. This resulted in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in2007. Hawley was also the youngest incumbent senator at that time, and continued to be until the inauguration ofJon Ossoff in 2021.[4] Despite her loss, McCaskill outperformed Hillary Clinton's performance in the state in the 2016 presidential race. This is the last U.S. Senate race in Missouri where the incumbent was defeated.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill (incumbent) | 501,872 | 82.60% | |
| Democratic | Carla Wright | 41,126 | 6.77% | |
| Democratic | John Hogan | 15,984 | 2.63% | |
| Democratic | David Faust | 15,958 | 2.63% | |
| Democratic | Angelica Earl | 15,500 | 2.55% | |
| Democratic | Travis Gonzalez | 9,480 | 1.56% | |
| Democratic | Leonard Steinman | 7,657 | 1.26% | |
| Total votes | 607,577 | 100.00% | ||
Cabinet-level officials
| Host network | Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hawley | Austin Petersen | Courtland Sykes | Tony Monetti | Peter Pfeifer | Kirsti Nichols | |||
| America First Missouri | May 11, 2018 | [53] | Absent | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Josh Hawley | Austin Petersen | Courtland Sykes | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[54] | April 26–29, 2018 | 283 | ± 6.0% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 45% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Josh Hawley | David Steelman | Ann Wagner | David Wasinger | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group[55] | April 28–29, 2017 | 915 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 7% | 14% | 2% | 47% |
| 37% | – | 16% | – | 47% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley | 389,878 | 58.64% | |
| Republican | Tony Monetti | 64,834 | 9.75% | |
| Republican | Austin Petersen | 54,916 | 8.26% | |
| Republican | Kristi Nichols | 49,640 | 7.47% | |
| Republican | Christina Smith | 35,024 | 5.27% | |
| Republican | Ken Patterson | 19,579 | 2.95% | |
| Republican | Peter Pfeifer | 16,594 | 2.50% | |
| Republican | Courtland Sykes | 13,870 | 2.09% | |
| Republican | Fred Ryman | 8,781 | 1.32% | |
| Republican | Brian Hagg | 6,871 | 1.03% | |
| Republican | Bradley Krembs | 4,902 | 0.74% | |
| Total votes | 664,889 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Japheth Campbell | 5,380 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 5,380 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Jo Crain | 906 | 57.67% | |
| Green | Jerome Bauer | 665 | 42.33% | |
| Total votes | 1,571 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[61] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[62] | Tilt R(flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] | Lean R(flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[64] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[65] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[66] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[67] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[68] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | $35,361,401 | $33,594,412 | $1,789,381 |
| Josh Hawley (R) | $10,221,143 | $7,376,209 | $2,844,933 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[69] | |||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Josh Hawley (R) | Japheth Campbell (L) | Craig O'Dear (I) | Jo Crain (G) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[70] | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[71] | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[72] | October 29 – November 4, 2018 | 1,791 | ± 2.3% | 44% | 48% | – | – | – | 4% | 3% |
| Emerson College[73] | November 1–3, 2018 | 732 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 3% | 3% |
| HarrisX[74] | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[75] | November 1–2, 2018 | 1,424 | ± 2.6% | 47% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| HarrisX[76] | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| NBC News/Marist[77] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 LV | ± 5.2% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 2% | <1% | 4% |
| 50% | 47% | – | – | – | <1% | 3% | ||||
| 920 RV | ± 4.1% | 46% | 43% | 3% | – | 2% | 1% | 6% | ||
| 50% | 46% | – | – | – | 1% | 4% | ||||
| HarrisX[78] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[79] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[80] | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fox News[81] | October 27–30, 2018 | 741 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 43% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% | 8% | ||||
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10% | ||
| 43% | 44% | – | – | – | 3% | 9% | ||||
| Cygnal (R)[82] | October 26–27, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 1% | 3% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[83] | October 24–25, 2018 | 1,376 | ± 2.6% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[84] | October 17–18, 2018 | 1,215 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley)[85] | October 16–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | – | – | – | 4% | 5% |
| The Polling Company (R-Citizens United)[86] | October 11–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | – | – | – | 0% | 3% |
| Ipsos[87] | September 27 – October 7, 2018 | 1,111 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| 1st Tuesday Campaigns[88] | October 5–6, 2018 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 11% |
| Fox News[89] | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 683 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 43% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 46% | 46% | – | – | – | 3% | 5% | ||||
| 805 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 41% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 9% | ||
| 44% | 44% | – | – | – | 3% | 8% | ||||
| McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action)[90] | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vox Populi Polling[91] | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS[92] | September 25–29, 2018 | 756 LV | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 906 RV | ± 3.9% | 43% | 42% | 4% | – | 2% | 0% | 6% | ||
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[93] | September 26–27, 2018 | 1,555 | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| YouGov[94] | September 10–14, 2018 | 917 | – | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 4% | 6% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[95] | September 11–13, 2018 | 1,724 | ± 2.4% | 44% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| Fox News[96] | September 8–11, 2018 | 675 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 3% | 7% | ||||
| 808 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 11% | ||
| 42% | 43% | – | – | – | 3% | 10% | ||||
| NBC News/Marist[97] | August 25–28, 2018 | 568 LV | ± 4.8% | 44% | 40% | 5% | – | 3% | <1% | 8% |
| 47% | 47% | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | ||||
| 774 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 39% | 6% | – | 3% | <1% | 8% | ||
| 46% | 47% | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | ||||
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth)[98] | August 12–14, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 48% | – | – | – | 3% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[99] | August 8–9, 2018 | 1,785 | ± 2.3% | 47% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth)[98] | July 10–12, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – | 4% | 11% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington (R)[100] | July 7–8, 2018 | 1,034 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[101] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action)[90] | June 2018 | – | – | 46% | 42% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[102] | June 11–13, 2018 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen)[103] | May 16, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D)[104] | May 9–10, 2018 | 898 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| Emerson College[54] | April 26–29, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D)[105] | April 19–20, 2018 | 1,542 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley)[106] | April 16–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[102] | April 9–12, 2018 | – | – | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon[107] | April 4–6, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[108] | March 5–7, 2018 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | – | – | – | – | 18% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[109] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,938 | ± 3.6% | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-TMI)[110] | January 8–9, 2018 | 965 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[111] | January 3–4, 2018 | 1,122 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[112] | October 11–12, 2017 | 965 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[113] | August 16–18, 2017 | 922 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 5% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[114] | July 10–11, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | – | – | – | – | 12% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
with Austin Petersen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Austin Petersen (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen)[103] | May 16, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 56% | 4% |
with generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[114] | July 10–11, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 54% | 8% |
with Vicky Hartzler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
with Blaine Luetkemeyer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
with Todd Richardson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Todd Richardson (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
with Eric Schmitt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Eric Schmitt (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
with Jason Smith
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Claire McCaskill (D) | Jason Smith (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R)[115] | June 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Senator McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on election day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in theLead Belt and theMissouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state.[116]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley | 1,254,927 | 51.38% | +12.27 | |
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill (incumbent) | 1,112,935 | 45.57% | −9.24 | |
| Independent | Craig O'Dear | 34,398 | 1.41% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Japheth Campbell | 27,316 | 1.12% | −4.95 | |
| Green | Jo Crain | 12,706 | 0.52% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 7 | 0.00% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,442,289 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | |||||
Hawley won five of eight congressional districts, with the remaining three going to McCaskill, including one that elected a Republican.[118]
| District | McCaskill | Hawley | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 82% | 16% | Lacy Clay |
| 2nd | 50% | 48% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 38% | 59% | Blaine Luetkemeyer |
| 4th | 36% | 60% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 61% | 36% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 39% | 58% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 31% | 65% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 28% | 69% | Jason Smith |
| Demographic subgroup | McCaskill | Hawley | % of voters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 42 | 57 | 49 | |
| Women | 51 | 47 | 51 | |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 55 | 42 | 6 | |
| 25–29 years old | 57 | 42 | 7 | |
| 30–39 years old | 52 | 45 | 15 | |
| 40–49 years old | 44 | 54 | 16 | |
| 50–64 years old | 43 | 56 | 31 | |
| 65 and older | 45 | 54 | 25 | |
| Race | ||||
| White | 42 | 57 | 84 | |
| Black | 91 | 8 | 8 | |
| Latino | 53 | 44 | 4 | |
| Race by gender | ||||
| White men | 37 | 62 | 41 | |
| White women | 46 | 52 | 43 | |
| Black men | 91 | 7 | 4 | |
| Black women | 90 | 9 | 5 | |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 34 | 64 | 22 | |
| Somecollege education | 48 | 51 | 27 | |
| Associate degree | 46 | 53 | 14 | |
| Bachelor's degree | 51 | 48 | 22 | |
| Advanced degree | 58 | 41 | 15 | |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 93 | 6 | 31 | |
| Republicans | 7 | 92 | 37 | |
| Independents | 46 | 51 | 32 | |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 90 | 9 | 23 | |
| Moderates | 60 | 37 | 38 | |
| Conservatives | 8 | 91 | 39 | |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 43 | 55 | 63 | |
| Unmarried | 57 | 41 | 37 | |
| Gender by marital status | ||||
| Married men | 39 | 61 | 34 | |
| Married women | 49 | 49 | 28 | |
| Unmarried men | 47 | 50 | 11 | |
| Unmarried women | 64 | 33 | 21 | |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 59 | 38 | 13 | |
| No | 44 | 56 | 87 | |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Immigration | 13 | 86 | 20 | |
| Healthcare | 71 | 27 | 47 | |
| Gun policy | 52 | 47 | 8 | |
| Economy | 33 | 65 | 23 | |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 67 | 32 | 35 | |
| Suburban | 42 | 57 | 37 | |
| Rural | 27 | 71 | 28 | |
| Source:CNN[119] | ||||
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