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2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2018 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Mississippi held in parallel, see2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi.

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi
← 2012November 6, 20182024 →
Turnout49.7%Decrease
 
NomineeRoger WickerDavid Baria
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote547,619369,567
Percentage58.49%39.47%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Wicker:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90–100%
Baria:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90%
U.S. senator before election

Roger Wicker
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Wicker
Republican

Elections in Mississippi
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House

The2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofMississippi. Incumbent RepublicanRoger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger,David Baria.

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary failed to produce a majority winner.[1] The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisanjungle primary for theother U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated byThad Cochran in the spring of 2018.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Roger Wicker
U.S. executive branch officials
Governors
Statewide officials
U.S. senators
Mississippi state officials
  • Dane Maxwell, mayor of Pascagoula[16]
Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)
Political operatives
  • Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC[17]
  • Laura Van Overschelde, chair of the Mississippi Tea Party[18]
  • Grant Sowell, chair of the Tupelo Tea Party[19]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Roger
Wicker		Chris
McDaniel		Tate
Reeves		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[20]April 10–11, 2018446–66%16%–18%
JMC Analytics[21]February 15–17, 2018500± 4.4%38%–15%47%
38%20%–42%
Mason-Dixon[22]December 13–15, 2017400± 5.0%49%33%–18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker)[23]April 22–25, 2017500± 4.2%55%30%–14%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Wicker—≥90%
  •   Wicker—80–90%
  •   Wicker—70–80%
  •   Wicker—60–70%
Republican primary results[24]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRoger Wicker (incumbent)130,11882.79%
RepublicanRichard Boyanton27,05217.21%
Total votes157,170100%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jensen Bohren
Organizations
  • Jackpine Radicals[34]
  • Mississippi DSA[35]
  • Sustainable Politician Project[36]
  • Vote STEM[37]
David Baria
Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		David
Baria		Jensen
Bohren		Omeria
Scott		Howard
Sherman		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[20]April 10–11, 20184467%4%9%2%79%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		David
Baria		Chuck
Espy		Jim
Hood		Bennie
Thompson		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[42]January 29, 20182,145± 1.8%––33%47%20%
10%34%––56%

Results

[edit]
Initial primary results by county
Map legend
  •   Sherman—50–60%
  •   Sherman—40–50%
  •   Sherman—30–40%
  •   Baria—20–30%
  •   Baria—30–40%
  •   Baria—40–50%
  •   Baria—50–60%
  •   Baria—60–70%
  •   Baria—80–90%
  •   Scott—20–30%
  •   Scott—30–40%
  •   Scott—40–50%
  •   Scott—50–60%
  •   Scott—70–80%
  •   Scott—80–90%
  •   Garland—50–60%
Democratic primary results[43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHoward Sherman27,95731.79%
DemocraticDavid Baria27,24430.98%
DemocraticOmeria Scott21,27824.20%
DemocraticVictor G. Maurice Jr.4,3614.96%
DemocraticJerone Garland4,2664.85%
DemocraticJensen Bohren2,8253.21%
Total votes87,931100%

Runoff results

[edit]
Primary runoff results by county
Map legend
  •   Baria—≥90%
  •   Baria—80–90%
  •   Baria—70–80%
  •   Baria—60–70%
  •   Baria—50–60%
  •   Sherman—50–60%
  •   Sherman—60–70%
  •   Sherman—70–80%
  •   Sherman—80–90%
Democratic primary runoff results[44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticDavid Baria44,15658.64%
DemocraticHoward Sherman31,14941.36%
Total votes75,305100%

Independents and third party candidates

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Reform Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate[27]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[45]Safe ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections[46]Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[48]Likely RJuly 9, 2018
CNN[49]Safe RJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[50]Safe RJune 2018

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Roger Wicker (R)$5,349,028$3,831,418$3,138,044
David Baria (D)$532,629$528,325$72,922
Source: Federal Election Commission[51]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Roger
Wicker (R)		David
Baria (D)		Danny
Bedwell (L)		OtherUndecided
Change Research[52]November 2–4, 20181,003–48%40%5%3%[53]–
Marist College[54]October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%57%31%2%2%[55]9%
60%32%–2%7%
856 RV± 4.7%54%30%3%2%[55]10%
57%32%–2%9%
SurveyMonkey[56]September 9–24, 2018985± 4.3%43%29%––27%
Triumph Campaigns[57]July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%53%32%1%2%[58]12%
Triumph Campaigns[20]April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%48%31%––21%

Results

[edit]
2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi[59]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRoger Wicker (incumbent)547,61958.49%+1.33%
DemocraticDavid Baria369,56739.47%−1.08%
LibertarianDanny Bedwell12,9811.39%N/A
ReformShawn O'Hara6,0480.65%−0.41%
Total votes936,215100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

By county

[edit]
County[60]Roger Wicker
Republican		David Baria
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams4,48741.70%6,09756.66%1761.64%-1,610-14.96%10,760
Alcorn8,16780.34%1,78017.51%2192.15%6,38762.83%10,166
Amite3,24660.53%1,96636.66%1512.82%1,28023.87%5,363
Attala3,72860.82%2,29137.37%1111.81%1,43723.44%6,130
Benton1,64559.09%1,09139.19%481.72%55419.90%2,784
Bolivar3,93837.11%6,46960.96%2051.93%-2,531-23.85%10,612
Calhoun3,29671.67%1,23026.74%731.59%2,06644.92%4,599
Carroll2,93669.28%1,21228.60%902.12%1,72440.68%4,238
Chickasaw3,31755.97%2,51242.39%971.64%80513.58%5,926
Choctaw2,10171.15%79126.79%612.07%1,31044.36%2,953
Claiborne65320.15%2,46876.17%1193.67%-1,815-56.02%3,240
Clarke3,94465.84%1,93332.27%1131.89%2,01133.57%5,990
Clay3,41144.82%4,09153.76%1081.42%-680-8.94%7,610
Coahoma2,17835.05%3,85862.09%1782.86%-1,680-27.04%6,214
Copiah5,05249.63%4,86747.81%2612.56%1851.82%10,180
Covington4,24262.49%2,38235.09%1642.42%1,86027.40%6,788
DeSoto32,75064.37%16,85833.13%1,2712.50%15,89231.23%50,879
Forrest12,53956.22%9,13440.95%6302.82%3,40515.27%22,303
Franklin1,99963.56%1,05033.39%963.05%94930.17%3,145
George6,06084.86%86612.13%2153.01%5,19472.73%7,141
Greene2,92378.30%70318.83%1072.87%2,22059.47%3,733
Grenada4,34856.87%3,17641.54%1211.58%1,17215.33%7,645
Hancock9,98971.87%3,69226.56%2181.57%6,29745.31%13,899
Harrison32,41462.67%18,39135.56%9181.77%14,02327.11%51,723
Hinds21,64427.50%55,78070.87%1,2821.63%-34,136-43.37%78,706
Holmes1,06819.87%4,22278.55%851.58%-3,154-58.68%5,375
Humphreys96130.57%2,08266.22%1013.21%-1,121-35.66%3,144
Issaquena25848.50%26149.06%132.44%-3-0.56%532
Itawamba5,85886.22%78311.52%1532.25%5,07574.70%6,794
Jackson26,54467.19%12,17930.83%7841.98%14,36536.36%39,507
Jasper2,98847.68%3,14950.25%1302.07%-161-2.57%6,267
Jefferson56218.37%2,39878.37%1003.27%-1,836-60.00%3,060
Jefferson Davis1,95841.65%2,64056.16%1032.19%-682-14.51%4,701
Jones14,85268.48%6,14328.33%6923.19%8,70940.16%21,687
Kemper1,43241.74%1,95556.98%441.28%-523-15.24%3,431
Lafayette9,25656.13%6,98142.33%2531.53%2,27513.80%16,490
Lamar14,77774.97%4,43722.51%4972.52%10,34052.46%19,711
Lauderdale14,21761.45%8,61037.21%3091.34%5,60724.23%23,136
Lawrence3,19665.75%1,55832.05%1072.20%1,63833.70%4,861
Leake3,66658.49%2,47039.41%1322.11%1,19619.08%6,268
Lee17,41367.86%7,65429.83%5942.31%9,75938.03%25,661
Leflore2,85034.07%5,35263.99%1621.94%-2,502-29.91%8,364
Lincoln8,57670.16%3,45328.25%1941.59%5,12341.91%12,223
Lowndes10,72054.57%8,63843.97%2881.47%2,08210.60%19,646
Madison23,63258.27%16,28340.15%6381.57%7,34918.12%40,553
Marion5,86766.66%2,73431.06%2002.27%3,13335.60%8,801
Marshall5,41547.87%5,69250.31%2061.82%-277-2.45%11,313
Monroe7,73966.17%3,80232.51%1541.32%3,93733.66%11,695
Montgomery2,25458.70%1,52639.74%601.56%72818.96%3,840
Neshoba5,86173.76%1,96124.68%1241.56%3,90049.08%7,946
Newton4,96569.89%1,98627.96%1532.15%2,97941.93%7,104
Noxubee1,08527.69%2,78871.14%461.17%-1,703-43.45%3,919
Oktibbeha7,13450.17%6,79847.81%2872.02%3362.36%14,219
Panola5,80451.80%5,21246.51%1891.69%5925.28%11,205
Pearl River12,37378.79%2,89918.46%4322.75%9,47460.33%15,704
Perry2,91375.39%85322.08%982.54%2,06053.31%3,864
Pike6,50251.61%5,85746.49%2391.90%6455.12%12,598
Pontotoc7,58879.10%1,69317.65%3123.25%5,89561.45%9,593
Prentiss5,59778.03%1,45020.21%1261.76%4,14757.81%7,173
Quitman87236.50%1,46061.11%572.39%-588-24.61%2,389
Rankin37,91373.43%12,52324.26%1,1942.31%25,39049.18%51,630
Scott4,60060.19%2,92638.29%1161.52%1,67421.91%7,642
Sharkey59635.52%1,04662.34%362.15%-450-26.82%1,678
Simpson5,69765.24%2,85532.69%1812.07%2,84232.54%8,733
Smith4,39475.19%1,29822.21%1522.60%3,09652.98%5,844
Stone4,05276.32%1,14221.51%1152.17%2,91054.81%5,309
Sunflower2,45734.18%4,57963.69%1532.13%-2,122-29.52%7,189
Tallahatchie1,95047.15%2,09550.65%912.20%-145-3.51%4,136
Tate5,68066.58%2,63830.92%2132.50%3,04235.66%8,531
Tippah5,53680.16%1,22917.80%1412.04%4,30762.37%6,906
Tishomingo5,12584.49%78812.99%1532.52%4,33771.50%6,066
Tunica77931.41%1,63065.73%712.86%-851-34.31%2,480
Union6,77982.28%1,29715.74%1631.98%5,48266.54%8,239
Walthall3,00859.71%1,91938.09%1112.20%1,08921.62%5,038
Warren8,20654.04%6,70644.16%2731.80%1,5009.88%15,185
Washington4,51933.27%8,89365.48%1701.25%-4,374-32.20%13,582
Wayne4,37660.92%2,63836.73%1692.35%1,73824.20%7,183
Webster3,11479.50%73318.71%701.79%2,38160.79%3,917
Wilkinson95033.56%1,82364.39%582.05%-873-30.84%2,831
Winston3,97656.95%2,90041.54%1051.50%1,07615.41%6,981
Yalobusha2,57455.31%2,01143.21%691.48%56312.10%4,654
Yazoo3,57851.41%3,25146.71%1311.88%3274.70%6,960
Totals547,61958.49%369,56739.47%19,0292.03%178,05219.02%936,215

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Wicker won three of four congressional districts.[61]

DistrictWickerBariaRepresentative
1st66%32%Trent Kelly
2nd38%61%Bennie Thompson
3rd62%36%Michael Guest
4th68%30%Steven Palazzo

References

[edit]
  1. ^"United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018 – Ballotpedia".Archived from the original on April 21, 2017. RetrievedMarch 3, 2017.
  2. ^"Candidacy form"(PDF).docquery.fec.gov.Archived(PDF) from the original on February 16, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2018.
  3. ^"Former President Bush to attend private event in Jackson".Starkville Daily News. June 1, 2017. Archived fromthe original on June 12, 2018. RetrievedJune 5, 2017.
  4. ^Pender, Geoff (November 16, 2015)."Some post-Trump political prognostics".The Clarion-Ledger.Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. RetrievedDecember 6, 2016.
  5. ^"Precursor to 2018? Coordinated effort by McDaniel, Sojourner, Walters to malign Sen. @RogerWicker".Yall Politics. November 14, 2015.Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. RetrievedDecember 6, 2016.
  6. ^Harrison, Bobby (July 9, 2017)."Will Tupelo's Wicker face McDaniel challenge in 2018 Senate race?".Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal.Archived from the original on July 16, 2017. RetrievedJuly 17, 2017.
  7. ^"GOP showdown: McDaniel expected to challenge Wicker for Senate".Politico.Archived from the original on February 27, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2018.
  8. ^Swanson, Ian (February 28, 2018)."McDaniel makes GOP Senate challenge official in Miss".Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2018.
  9. ^"McDaniel to Run for Open Mississippi Senate Seat – Chris McDaniel for US Senate". March 14, 2018. Archived from the original on March 15, 2018. RetrievedMarch 14, 2018.
  10. ^"Senator Chris McDaniel".www.facebook.com.Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. RetrievedMarch 14, 2018.
  11. ^"Ex-President George W. Bush Raises Money for Sen. Wicker". U.S. News. June 1, 2017.Archived from the original on March 4, 2018. RetrievedMarch 4, 2018.
  12. ^"President Donald Trump is backing Sen. Roger Wicker against a Steve Bannon-led challenge by Chris McDaniel". The Sun Herald. October 20, 2017.Archived from the original on December 14, 2017. RetrievedDecember 13, 2017.
  13. ^Phil Bryant."I agree with @realDonaldTrump. Sen. Roger Wicker has been instrumental in cutting taxes, eliminating burdensome regulations, creating jobs and strengthening our border. Mississippi needs Sen. Wicker in Washington, and I hope you will join me in voting for him on June 5".Twitter.Archived from the original on June 6, 2020. RetrievedMarch 3, 2018.
  14. ^Greg Snowden."Every citizen is entitled to their own opinion, of course, but for myself, I stand with President Donald Trump in supporting the re-election of Senator Roger Wicker".Twitter.Archived from the original on March 7, 2021. RetrievedMarch 3, 2018.
  15. ^"Santorum Endorses Wicker". February 22, 2018.Archived from the original on February 22, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 23, 2018.
  16. ^Ulmer, Sarah (December 15, 2017)."Pascagoula Mayor Dane Maxwell: We're going to fight to keep Senator Wicker".Y'all Politics.Archived from the original on December 15, 2017. RetrievedDecember 15, 2017.
  17. ^"#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen".yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017.Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2018.If Senator Chris McDaniel chooses to run for U.S. Senate, he will have our support and the support of these state and local leaders, along with many of their grassroots organizations... We are ready to hit the ground running to elect Chris McDaniel.
  18. ^"#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen".yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017.Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2018.In 2014, the common folks of Mississippi made the very definite statement that we are not being heard and those in power have no intention of hearing us... One person, Chris McDaniel, had the courage to say enough is enough. We almost got it done and common people all over the country recognized what we nearly accomplished. We support Chris McDaniel's efforts to reestablish governance by theconsent of the governed.
  19. ^"#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen".yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017.Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2018.Year after year, our Senators and Congressmen rank so low on most conservative scorecards. It's time we elect a Senator who truly represents Mississippi's conservative constituency.
  20. ^abcTriumph Campaigns
  21. ^JMC Analytics
  22. ^Mason-Dixon
  23. ^Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker)
  24. ^"2018 Mississippi Republican primary election results"(PDF).Archived(PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. RetrievedJune 12, 2019.
  25. ^Dovere, Edward-Isaac (February 28, 2018)."Democrat David Baria enters Senate race in Mississippi".POLITICO.Archived from the original on March 7, 2018. RetrievedMarch 29, 2018.
  26. ^"BOHREN, JENSEN MR - Candidate overview - FEC.gov".FEC.gov.Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. RetrievedJune 30, 2017.
  27. ^abcd"Qualifying list"(PDF).www.sos.ms.gov.Archived(PDF) from the original on November 25, 2020. RetrievedApril 9, 2018.
  28. ^"Omeria Scott running for US Senate".WTOK.com. March 1, 2018.Archived from the original on March 29, 2018. RetrievedMarch 29, 2018.
  29. ^Hall, Sam R.; Pender, Geoff (February 28, 2018)."2 Democrats — state lawmaker, Sela Ward's husband — enter #MSSEN race".The Clarion-Ledger.Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2018.
  30. ^"Here are a few Democrats who could make a U.S. Senate run in Mississippi".The Clarion Ledger.Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. RetrievedDecember 29, 2017.
  31. ^"Millennial Democrat enters 4th Congressional District race".sunherald.Archived from the original on December 29, 2017. RetrievedDecember 29, 2017.
  32. ^Harrison, Bobby (October 19, 2017)."Presley could be hope for Democrats under right circumstances".Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal.Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. RetrievedOctober 19, 2017.
  33. ^Dovere, Edward-Isaac (January 18, 2018)."Top Democratic recruit passes on Mississippi Senate run".Politico.Archived from the original on January 18, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 18, 2018.
  34. ^"2018 election progressive candidates".JackpineRadicals.com. Jackpine Radicals. November 23, 2017. Archived fromthe original on December 14, 2017. RetrievedDecember 13, 2017.
  35. ^"Vote For Jensen".Twitter.com. MSDSA. June 3, 2018.Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. RetrievedJune 5, 2018.
  36. ^"Sustainable Politician Project".sustainablepoliticianproject.com. Sustainable Politician Project. May 7, 2018.Archived from the original on May 16, 2018. RetrievedMay 15, 2018.
  37. ^"2018 Mississippi Candidates Vetted".VoteSTEM.org. Vote STEM. February 5, 2018.Archived from the original on February 15, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2018.
  38. ^Muller, Tiffany (September 6, 2018)."End Citizens United Endorses Five Reformers for Congress".End Citizens United.Archived from the original on September 17, 2018. RetrievedOctober 9, 2018.
  39. ^"Baria endorsed by Mississippi AFL-CIO".bariaformississippi.com. March 27, 2018.Archived from the original on May 14, 2018. RetrievedMay 13, 2018.
  40. ^"Baria gets endorsement from MAE".WTOK. October 9, 2018.Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. RetrievedOctober 9, 2018.
  41. ^"Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". March 19, 2021.Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. RetrievedJune 20, 2018.
  42. ^Triumph Campaigns
  43. ^"2018 Mississippi Democratic primary election results"(PDF).Archived(PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. RetrievedJune 12, 2019.
  44. ^"2018 Mississippi Democratic primary runoff election results"(PDF).Archived(PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. RetrievedJune 12, 2019.
  45. ^"2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018".The Cook Political Report.Archived from the original on February 5, 2021. RetrievedMarch 13, 2021.
  46. ^"2018 Senate Ratings".The Rothenberg Political Report.Archived from the original on September 12, 2021. RetrievedMarch 13, 2021.
  47. ^"2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball.Archived from the original on October 12, 2017. RetrievedOctober 11, 2017.
  48. ^"2018 Senate Power Rankings".Fox News.Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. RetrievedJuly 10, 2018.
  49. ^"Key Races: Senate".Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. RetrievedJuly 15, 2018.
  50. ^"Battle for the Senate 2018".Archived from the original on July 9, 2018. RetrievedJuly 15, 2018.
  51. ^"Campaign finance data".Archived from the original on July 26, 2018. RetrievedJuly 27, 2018.
  52. ^Change Research
  53. ^Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 3%
  54. ^Marist College
  55. ^abShawn O'Hara (Reform) with 1%, other with 1%
  56. ^SurveyMonkey
  57. ^Triumph Campaigns
  58. ^Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 2%
  59. ^Hosemann, Delbert (December 3, 2018)."United States Senate"(PDF).Secretary of State of Mississippi.Archived(PDF) from the original on July 3, 2025. RetrievedAugust 28, 2025.
  60. ^Hosemann, Delbert (November 6, 2018)."Official County Recapitulation Sheets 2018 General Election".Secretary of State of Mississippi.Archived from the original on June 25, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2025.
  61. ^"DRA 2020".Daves Redistricting. RetrievedAugust 18, 2024.

External links

[edit]

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