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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with2018 Kentucky House of Representatives election.
2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

← 2016November 6, 20182020 →

All 6 Kentucky seats to theUnited States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Last election51
Seats won51
Seat changeSteadySteady
Popular vote935,564613,040
Percentage59.59%39.05%
SwingDecrease 11.11%Increase 9.77%

District results
County results

Republican

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  >90%

Democratic

  50–60%
  60–70%

Elections in Kentucky
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Republican
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The2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the sixU.S. representatives from thestate ofKentucky, one from each of the state's sixcongressional districts. The elections coincided withother elections to the House of Representatives,elections to theUnited States Senate, and variousstate andlocal elections.

Overview

[edit]
Popular vote
Republican
59.59%
Democratic
39.05%
Other
1.36%
House seats
Republican
83.33%
Democratic
16.67%

By district

[edit]

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky by district:[1]

DistrictRepublicanDemocraticOthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1172,16768.59%78,84931.41%00.00%251,016100.0%Republican hold
District 2171,70066.72%79,96431.07%5,6812.21%257,345100.0%Republican hold
District 3101,93036.57%173,00262.07%3,7881.36%278,720100.0%Democratic hold
District 4162,94662.24%90,53634.58%8,3303.18%261,812100.0%Republican hold
District 5172,09378.94%45,89021.05%340.02%218,017100.0%Republican hold
District 6154,46851.00%144,73647.79%3,6841.22%302,888100.0%Republican hold
Total935,30459.58%612,97739.05%21,5171.37%1,569,798100.0%

District 1

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeJames ComerPaul Walker
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote172,16778,849
Percentage68.6%31.4%

County results
Comer:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election

James Comer
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

James Comer
Republican

See also:Kentucky's 1st congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanJames Comer, who had represented the district since 2016, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+23.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Paul Walker, professor[2]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Alonzo Pennington, musician[3]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticPaul Walker51,09474.6
DemocraticAlonzo Pennington17,39825.4
Total votes68,492100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[4]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[9]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[10]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[11]Safe RNovember 4, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 1st congressional district, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJames Comer (incumbent)172,16768.6
DemocraticPaul Walker78,84931.4
Total votes251,016100.0
Republicanhold

District 2

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeBrett GuthrieHank Linderman
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote171,70079,964
Percentage66.7%31.1%

County results
Guthrie:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Brett Guthrie
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Brett Guthrie
Republican

See also:Kentucky's 2nd congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanBrett Guthrie, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+19.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Hank Linderman, musician[12]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Brian Pedigo, teacher and farmer[13]
  • Rane Eir Olivia Sessions, veteran and former intern forWilliam D. Ford[14]
  • Grant Short, pilot, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in2016[15]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHank Linderman14,51630.0
DemocraticBrian Pedigo13,86628.7
DemocraticRane Eir Olivia Sessions10,50121.7
DemocraticGrant Short9,47019.6
Total votes48,353100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[4]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[9]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[10]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[11]Safe RNovember 4, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 2nd congressional district, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBrett Guthrie (incumbent)171,70066.7
DemocraticHank Linderman79,96431.1
IndependentThomas Loecken5,6812.2
Total votes257,345100.0
Republicanhold

District 3

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeJohn YarmuthVickie Yates Glisson
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote173,002101,930
Percentage62.1%36.1%

County results
Yarmuth:     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

John Yarmuth
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

John Yarmuth
Democratic

See also:Kentucky's 3rd congressional district

Incumbent DemocratJohn Yarmuth, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of D+6.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Vickie Yates Glisson, lawyer and former state health secretary[16]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Mike Craven, Ford worker
  • Rhonda Palazzo, realtor
Withdrawn
[edit]
  • Waymen Eddings

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanVickie Yates Glisson11,23949.1
RepublicanMike Craven6,16326.9
RepublicanRhonda Palazzo5,51124.0
Total votes22,913100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[4]Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[5]Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Safe DNovember 5, 2018
RCP[7]Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[8]Safe DNovember 5, 2018
538[9]Safe DNovember 7, 2018
CNN[10]Safe DOctober 31, 2018
Politico[11]Safe DNovember 4, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJohn Yarmuth (incumbent)173,00262.1
RepublicanVickie Yates Glisson101,93036.6
LibertarianGregory Boles3,7881.4
Total votes278,720100.0
Democratichold

District 4

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 4th congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeThomas MassieSeth Hall
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote162,94690,536
Percentage62.2%34.6%

County results
Massie:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Thomas Massie
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Thomas Massie
Republican

See also:Kentucky's 4th congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanThomas Massie, who had represented the district since 2012, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+18.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Seth Hall, health insurance worker
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Christina Lord[17]
  • Patti Piatt, business executive[18]

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticSeth Hall17,85940.8
DemocraticPatti Piatt16,44137.5
DemocraticChristina Lord9,50921.7
Total votes43,809100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[4]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[9]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[10]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[11]Safe RNovember 4, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 4th congressional district, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanThomas Massie (incumbent)162,94662.2
DemocraticSeth Hall90,53634.6
IndependentMike Moffett8,3182.2
IndependentDavid Goodwin (write-in)120.0
Total votes261,812100.0
Republicanhold

District 5

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeHal RogersKenneth Stepp
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote172,09345,890
Percentage78.9%21.0%

County results
Rogers:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election

Hal Rogers
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Hal Rogers
Republican

See also:Kentucky's 5th congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanHal Rogers, who had represented the district since 1981, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+31.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Gerardo Serrano

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanHal Rogers (incumbent)75,40584.2
RepublicanGerardo Serrano14,17715.8
Total votes89,582100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Kenneth Stepp, attorney
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Scott Sykes

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticKenneth Stepp33,58458.7
DemocraticScott Sykes23,63741.3
Total votes57,221100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[4]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[9]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[10]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[11]Safe RNovember 4, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 5th congressional district, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanHal Rogers (incumbent)172,09378.9
DemocraticKenneth Stepp45,89021.0
IndependentBill Ray (write-in)340.1
Total votes218,017100.0

District 6

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeAndy BarrAmy McGrath
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote154,468144,736
Percentage51.0%47.8%

County results
Barr:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
McGrath:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Andy Barr
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Andy Barr
Republican

See also:Kentucky's 6th congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanAndy Barr, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+9.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Chuck Eddy

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanAndy Barr (incumbent)40,51483.8
RepublicanChuck Eddy7,85816.2
Total votes48,372100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

TheDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Kentucky's 6th congressional district on its initial list of Republican-held seats considered targets in 2018.[24][25] McGrath's campaign announcement video, entitled "Told Me", in which she spoke of her Navy service (being the first female Marine to fly aMcDonnell Douglas F/F-18 in combat), attracted much national attention.[26][27][28]

The DCCC opted to support Jim Gray in the primary.[29][30]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jim Gray

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Amy McGrath

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Reggie Thomas

Individuals

  • Nancy Jo Kemper, former executive director of the Kentucky Council of Churches and nominee for this seat in2016

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Gray
Amy
McGrath
Reggie
Thomas
OtherUndecided
Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath)[38]April 17–19, 2018400±5.0%35%42%6%3%14%
Mellman Group (D-Gray)[39]March 3–6, 2018400±4.9%52%19%6%23%

Results

[edit]
County results
Map legend
  •   McGrath—60–70%
  •   McGrath—50–60%
  •   McGrath—40–50%
  •   Gray—50–60%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticAmy McGrath48,85948.7
DemocraticJim Gray40,68440.5
DemocraticReggie Thomas7,2267.2
DemocraticGeoff Young1,5741.6
DemocraticDaniel Kemph1,2401.2
DemocraticTheodore Green8350.8
Total votes100,418100.0

General election

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Andy Barr (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

Amy McGrath (D)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Andy
Barr (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
OtherUndecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College[42]November 1–4, 2018438± 4.9%44%44%2%10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[43]October 6–8, 2018400± 4.9%48%46%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[44]September 30 – October 2, 2018501± 4.5%44%51%
Pulse Opinion Research[45]September 12–17, 2018600± 4.0%47%47%2%3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[46]September 6–8, 2018506± 4.9%47%46%7%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)[47]September 4–6, 2018400± 4.9%49%45%6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[48]July 7–10, 2018461± 4.6%43%50%7%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)[47]June 6–7, 2018400± 4.9%38%51%11%
DCCC (D)[49]April 30–May 2, 2018508± 4.4%37%52%8%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[50]February 5–7, 2018401± 5.0%48%44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Andy
Barr (R)
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[51]February 12–13, 2018662± 3.8%42%44%14%

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[4]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[5]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Lean RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[7]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[8]TossupNovember 5, 2018
538[9]TossupNovember 7, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanAndy Barr (incumbent)154,46851.0
DemocraticAmy McGrath144,73647.8
LibertarianFrank Harris2,1500.7
IndependentRikka Wallin1,0110.3
IndependentJames Germalic5230.2
Total votes302,890100.0
Republicanhold

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019)."Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018".Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. RetrievedApril 27, 2019.
  2. ^reports, New Era staff."Murray man to run for congress, challenge Comer".Kentucky New Era. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  3. ^"Can Alonzo Pennington Thumbpick His Way into Congress?".LA Progressive. March 10, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  4. ^abcdef"2018 House Race Ratings".Cook Political Report. RetrievedOctober 30, 2018.
  5. ^abcdef"2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.
  6. ^abcdef"2018 House".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.
  7. ^abcdef"Battle for the House 2018". RCP. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.
  8. ^abcdef"Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings".Daily Kos. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  9. ^abcdefSilver, Nate (August 16, 2018)."2018 House Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on September 9, 2018. RetrievedNovember 6, 2018.
  10. ^abcde"CNN's 2018 Race Ratings". CNN. Archived fromthe original on October 31, 2018. RetrievedJuly 30, 2023.
  11. ^abcde"Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election".Politico. Archived fromthe original on November 4, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2018.
  12. ^"Hank Linderman running for Congress".TRISTATEHOMEPAGE. January 31, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  13. ^"Danville hosts first public forum for Democratic congressional candidates | The Advocate-Messenger".www.amnews.com. February 22, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  14. ^By, WES SWIETEK."Third Democrat files to challenge Guthrie".Bowling Green Daily News. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  15. ^"Four good Democratic candidates for Kentucky's Second District | The Advocate-Messenger".www.amnews.com. February 24, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  16. ^"Kentucky Health Official Running for Congress | NewsRadio 840 WHAS".NewsRadio 840 WHAS. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  17. ^"Here is the list of candidates for 4th Congressional District and KY House, Senate, from the region | NKyTribune".www.nkytribune.com. January 31, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  18. ^"Massie Challenger Looks to Paint a Red District Blue".CityBeat Cincinnati. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  19. ^"McGrath will launch first campaign commercial during UK basketball game".Spectrum News. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  20. ^Arroyo, Emilie."Lexington mayor Jim Gray files to run for Congress". RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  21. ^"Theodore David Green". Archived fromthe original on April 14, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  22. ^Staff, WKYT News."State Senator Reggie Thomas to run for Congress". RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  23. ^"Geoff Young continues suit against Kentucky Democratic Party, even as he seeks its nomination | The State Journal".www.state-journal.com. Archived fromthe original on April 14, 2018. RetrievedApril 14, 2018.
  24. ^Cheney, Kyle (January 30, 2017)."Amid Democratic doldrums, DCCC identifies 2018 targets".Politico. RetrievedFebruary 11, 2017.
  25. ^Sena, Dan (January 30, 2017)."House Democrats Playing Offense"(PDF).Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. RetrievedFebruary 11, 2017.
  26. ^Kurtzleben, Danielle (August 3, 2017)."Female Retired Marine With Viral Campaign Ad Hopes To Bridge Gap In Democratic Party".NPR.
  27. ^Desrochers, Daniel (June 19, 2017)."His blog inflamed Kentucky politics a decade ago. Now he's back".Lexington Herald-Leader.
  28. ^Puckett, Jeffrey Lee (August 3, 2017)."Kentucky combat veteran Amy McGrath is going viral with a video announcing Congressional run".The Courier-Journal.
  29. ^Murphy, Tim (May 22, 2018)."As a kid, she petitioned Congress for the right to fly fighter planes. Now she's gunning for a seat of her own".Mother Jones.
  30. ^Tackett, Michael (January 29, 2018)."From Annapolis to Congress? These Three Women Know Tough Missions".The New York Times.
  31. ^"United Steelworkers Endorse Jim Gray for Congress".jimgraycongress.co. Jim Gray for Congress. April 18, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 24, 2018. RetrievedJuly 20, 2023.
  32. ^Elliot Imse (January 23, 2018)."23 more LGBTQ champions for equality endorsed by Victory Fund".victoryfund.org/. Victory Fund PAC. RetrievedJuly 20, 2023.
  33. ^Herald-Leader editorial board (May 13, 2018)."Jim Gray for 6th District Democrats".kentucky.com. Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedJuly 20, 2023.
  34. ^abBradner, Eric (May 21, 2018)."Democratic primary in Kentucky pits openly gay mayor against female fighter pilot".CNN.
  35. ^abRoarty, Alex (August 9, 2017)."Rising Dem star Moulton grants seal of approval to three House candidates".The News & Observer.
  36. ^ab"VoteVets PAC Endorses Amy McGrath for Congress".VoteVets.org. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2018. RetrievedJuly 8, 2018.
  37. ^ab"Our Candidates: Amy McGrath KY-6 (D)".With Honor. Archived fromthe original on November 14, 2018. RetrievedJuly 8, 2018.
  38. ^Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath)
  39. ^Mellman Group (D-Gray)
  40. ^Donald J. Trump."Heading to the Great State of Kentucky - Big Rally for Congressman Andy Barr - Fantastic guy, need his vote for MAGA! Strong on Crime, Tax Cuts, Military, Vets & 2nd A. His opponent will NEVER vote for us, only for Pelosi. Andy has my Strongest Endorsement!!! See you in Kentucky".Twitter.
  41. ^"Red to Blue".dccc.org/. DCCC. Archived fromthe original on October 31, 2018. RetrievedJuly 20, 2023.
  42. ^NYT Upshot/Siena College
  43. ^Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)
  44. ^Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)Archived October 4, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  45. ^Pulse Opinion Research
  46. ^NYT Upshot/Siena College
  47. ^abFabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)
  48. ^Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)
  49. ^DCCC (D)
  50. ^Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)
  51. ^Public Policy Polling (D)

External links

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