|  | |||||||||||||||||
| 
 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 54.46%  [1]  20.49pp | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 
 | |||||||||||||||||
| Lee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Dean: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
| 
 | |||||||||||||||||
The2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the nextgovernor of Tennessee, alongside other state andlocal elections.IncumbentRepublican governorBill Haslam was term-limited and prohibited by theConstitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidateBill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeatingDemocratic nominee and formerNashville mayorKarl Dean in a landslide. Despite Lee’s win, this was the closest win for a Republican since1994. Lee was sworn in for his first term as Governor on January 19, 2019.
Theprimary elections took place on August 2, 2018, withRepublicanBill Lee and DemocratKarl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[2]
During the general election, Dean flipped back reliablyDemocraticDavidson,Haywood, andShelby Counties, which voted for Republican governor Bill Haslam in2014.
The results of the election marked the first time since1982 that a candidate from theincumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.
As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to theLibertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation andballot access laws.[3]
Individuals
Organizations
Individuals
Organizations
Individuals
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Diane Black | Randy Boyd | Beth Harwell | Bill Lee | Other | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[69] | July 18–21, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 26% | 1%[70] | 17% | 
| Emerson College[71] | July 11–14, 2018 | 266 | ± 6.4% | 27% | 22% | 14% | 19% | 3% | 14% | 
| Data Orbital[72] | June 27–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 24% | 23% | 10% | 19% | – | 24% | 
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[73] | June 25–28, 2018 | 1,040 | ± 3.1% | 27% | 33% | 7% | 20% | – | 13% | 
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[74] | May 14–17, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 9% | – | 15% | 
| Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)[75] | May 4–6, 2018 | 800 | – | 41% | 26% | 6% | 11% | – | 15% | 
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[74] | April 2018 | – | – | 33% | 30% | 5% | 13% | – | – | 
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)[74] | March 2018 | – | – | 31% | 31% | 10% | 10% | – | – | 
| TargetPoint/GQR[76] | March 7–14, 2018 | 390 | ± 5.0% | 25% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 2%[77] | 37% | 
| North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)[78] | February 5–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 22% | 25% | 4% | 18% | – | 30% | 
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[79] | December 12–18, 2017 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 4%[80] | 53% | 

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Lee | 291,414 | 36.75 | |
| Republican | Randy Boyd | 193,054 | 24.35 | |
| Republican | Diane Black | 182,457 | 23.01 | |
| Republican | Beth Harwell | 121,484 | 15.32 | |
| Republican | Kay White | 3,215 | 0.41 | |
| Republican | Basil Marceaux | 1,264 | 0.16 | |
| Total votes | 792,888 | 100.0 | ||
Federal officials
Labor unions
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Karl Dean | Craig Fitzhugh | Other | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[71] | July 11–14, 2018 | 206 | ± 7.3% | 44% | 14% | 9% | 33% | 
| TargetPoint/GQR[76] | March 7–14, 2018 | 288 | ± 5.8% | 41% | 11% | – | 44% | 

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Karl Dean | 280,553 | 75.14 | |
| Democratic | Craig Fitzhugh | 72,553 | 23.42 | |
| Democratic | Mezianne Vale Payne | 20,284 | 5.44 | |
| Total votes | 373,390 | 100.0 | ||
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
U.S. representatives
State officials
Local officials
Labor unions
| Source | Ranking | As of | 
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[108] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 | 
| The Washington Post[109] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 | 
| FiveThirtyEight[110] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 | 
| Rothenberg Political Report[111] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 | 
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[112] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 | 
| RealClearPolitics[113] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 | 
| Daily Kos[114] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 | 
| Fox News[115][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 | 
| Politico[116] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 | 
| Governing[117] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 | 
|  | This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension. | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Lee (R) | Karl Dean (D) | Other | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[118] | October 28–31, 2018 | 480 | – | 53% | 44% | – | 2% | 
| Emerson College[119] | October 28–30, 2018 | 621 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 41% | 2% | 3% | 
| Fox News[120] | October 27–30, 2018 | 718 LV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 37% | 2% | 7% | 
| 850 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 36% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Vox Populi Polling[121] | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 44% | – | – | 
| CNN/SSRS[122] | October 24–29, 2018 | 764 LV | ± 4.3% | 52% | 42% | 0% | 4% | 
| 871 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 0% | 5% | ||
| East Tennessee State University[123] | October 22–29, 2018 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 5% | 9% | 
| Cygnal (R)[124] | October 26–27, 2018 | 497 | ± 4.4% | 59% | 36% | 3% | 2% | 
| Marist College[125] | October 23–27, 2018 | 471 LV | ± 5.7% | 57% | 40% | 1% | 3% | 
| 764 RV | ± 4.4% | 56% | 39% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Vanderbilt University/SSRS[126] | October 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 37% | 0% | 12% | 
| Targoz Market Research[127] | October 9–12, 2018 | 558 LV | – | 56% | 44% | – | – | 
| 801 RV | – | 49% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[128] | October 8–11, 2018 | 593 | ± 4.2% | 59% | 33% | – | 8% | 
| Fox News[129] | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 666 LV | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 1% | 10% | 
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 52% | 35% | 1% | 10% | ||
| SurveyMonkey[130] | September 9–24, 2018 | 1,609 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 35% | – | 19% | 
| Vox Populi Polling[131] | September 16–18, 2018 | 567 | ± 4.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – | 
| CNN/SSRS[132] | September 11–15, 2018 | 723 LV | ± 4.3% | 52% | 43% | 0% | 3% | 
| 852 RV | ± 3.9% | 49% | 43% | 0% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[133] | September 10–12, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 37% | – | 9% | 
| Fox News[134] | September 8–11, 2018 | 686 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 35% | 1% | 10% | 
| 809 RV | ± 3.5% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 12% | ||
| Marist College[135] | August 25–28, 2018 | 538 LV | ± 5.1% | 53% | 40% | 1% | 7% | 
| 730 RV | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
| Gravis Marketing[136] | August 9–11, 2018 | 620 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 40% | – | 9% | 
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% | 
with Karl Dean
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Diane Black (R) | Karl Dean (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[71] | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 39% | 27% | 
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 35% | 19% | 
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 31% | 28% | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Randy Boyd (R) | Karl Dean (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[71] | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 34% | 36% | 30% | 
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 34% | 23% | 
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 35% | 28% | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Beth Harwell (R) | Karl Dean (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 25% | 
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 33% | 29% | 
with Craig Fitzhugh
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Diane Black (R) | Craig Fitzhugh (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 27% | 31% | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Randy Boyd (R) | Craig Fitzhugh (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 30% | 31% | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Beth Harwell (R) | Craig Fitzhugh (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 44% | 24% | 32% | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mae Beavers (R) | Karl Dean (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[137] | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 36% | 28% | 
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 32% | 37% | 32% | 
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mae Beavers (R) | Craig Fitzhugh (D) | Undecided | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[138] | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 36% | 29% | 34% | 
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Lee | 1,336,106 | 59.56% | −10.75% | |
| Democratic | Karl Dean | 864,863 | 38.55% | +15.71% | |
| Other | Other candidates | 42,314 | 1.89% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,243,294 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republicanhold | |||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Lee | 1,336,106 | 59.6 | |
| Democratic | Karl Dean | 864,863 | 38.6 | |
| Independent | Sherry L. Clark | 5,198 | 0.2 | |
| Independent | Mark Wright | 4,687 | 0.2 | |
| Independent | Patrick Whitlock | 3,631 | 0.2 | |
| Independent | Yvonne Neubert | 3,070 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Heather Scott | 2,969 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Mark CoonRippy Brown | 2,841 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Joe B. Wilmoth | 2,444 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | George Blackwell Smith IV | 1,550 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Cory King | 1,502 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Tracy C. Yaste Tisdale | 1,396 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Justin Cornett | 1,217 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Chad Riden | 1,096 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Robert Sawyers Sr. | 1,059 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Vinnie Vineyard | 1,012 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Rick Tyler | 981 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Gabriel Fancher | 869 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Sean Bruce Fleming | 814 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Alfred Shawn Rapoza | 800 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Jessie D. McDonald | 755 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Toney Randall Mitchell | 739 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Mike Toews | 726 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Matthew Koch | 652 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Jeremy Allen Stephenson | 613 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Tommy Ray McAnally | 609 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Jaron D. Weidner | 588 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | William Andrew Helmstetter | 496 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Eddie Murphy (write-in) | 11 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 2,243,294 | 100.0 | ||
| Republicanhold | ||||
| By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 
 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||


Lee won seven of nine congressional districts.[141]
| District | Lee | Dean | Representative | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 76.2% | 22.7% | Phil Roe | 
| 2nd | 63.5% | 35.4% | Jimmy Duncan (115th Congress) | 
| Tim Burchett (116th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 64.0% | 35.0% | Chuck Fleischmann | 
| 4th | 66.0% | 33.0% | Scott DesJarlais | 
| 5th | 35.6% | 59.3% | Jim Cooper | 
| 6th | 69.7% | 29.3% | Diane Black (115th Congress) | 
| John Rose (116th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 65.4% | 32.6% | Marsha Blackburn (115th Congress) | 
| Mark Green (116th Congress) | |||
| 8th | 66.5% | 32.2% | David Kustoff | 
| 9th | 21.5% | 74.9% | Steve Cohen | 
The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Rep. Diane Black for governor in the Tennessee Republican Primary Election.
...the National Rifle Association's Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Bill Lee for governor of Tennessee.
Official campaign websites