2018 South Australian state election

← 2014 17 March 2018 2022 →
All 47 seats in theSouth Australian House of Assembly 24 seats were needed for a majority 11 (of the 22) seats in theSouth Australian Legislative Council
Opinion polls
First party Second party Third party   Leader Steven Marshall Jay Weatherill Nick Xenophon Party Liberal Labor SA-Best Leader since 4 February 2013 21 October 2011 4 July 2017 Leader's seat Dunstan Cheltenham None (contestedHartley) Last election 22 seats 23 seats Did not exist Seats won 25 19 0 seats Seat change 3 4 Primary vote 398,182 343,896 148,360 Percentage 37.97% 32.79% 14.15% Swing 6.81 3.01 14.15 TPP 51.94% 48.06% TPP swing 1.07 1.07
Results by electoral division by first preference vote and two-party-preferred vote Results by electoral division, showing seats gained and held by each party
Premier before election Jay Weatherill Labor ElectedPremier Steven Marshall Liberal

The2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54thParliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in theHouse of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in theLegislative Council or upper house, last filled at the2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbentLabor Party government led byPremierJay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the oppositionLiberal Party, led byopposition leaderSteven Marshall.

Nick Xenophon's newSA-Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain thebalance of power in the Lower House. The party came second on primary votes in ten seats; the strongest results were in Chaffey, Finniss, and Hartley, where the party received over 25%.^[1][2][3] However, SA-Best received 19.3% of the votes in the Upper House, securing two seats and joining The Greens on thecrossbench.^[4][5]

Like federal elections, South Australia hascompulsory voting, uses full-preferenceinstant-runoff voting forsingle-member electorates in the lower house andoptional preferencesingle transferable voting in theproportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by theElectoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

South Australian state election, 17 March 2018[6] House of Assembly << 2014–2022 >>
Enrolled voters		1,201,775
Votes cast		1,093,584		Turnout	91.00	–0.94
Informal votes		44,871		Informal	4.10	+1.01
Summary of votes by party
Party		Primary votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Liberal	398,182	38.0	–6.81	25	+3
	Labor	343,896	32.8	–3.01	19	–4
	SA-Best	148,360	14.2	New	0	0
	Greens	69,826	6.7	–2.1	0	0
	Independents	36,780	3.5	–0.2	3	+1
	Conservatives	31,826	3.0	–3.2	0	0
	Dignity	15,565	1.5	+0.9	0	0
	Animal Justice	3,262	0.3	New	0	0
	Danig	732	0.1	New	0	0
	Stop Population Growth Now	284	0.0	+0.0	0	0
Total		1,048,713			47
Two-party-preferred
	Liberal	544,654	51.9	–1.1
	Labor	504,059	48.1	+1.1

The seats ofColton,Elder,Mawson andNewland were won by Labor at the previous election, but the 2016 redistribution made them notionally Liberal seats. Colton, Elder and Newland were won by the Liberals; Mawson was retained by Labor.^[7]

South Australian state election, 17 March 2018[8] Legislative Council << 2014–2022 >>
Enrolled voters		1,201,775
Votes cast		1,093,584		Turnout	91.00	–1.1
Informal votes		44,497		Informal	4.06	+0.1
Summary of votes by party
Party		Primary votes	%	Swing	Seats won	Seats held
	Liberal	338,700	32.23	–3.8	4	9
	Labor	304,229	28.95	–2.0	4	8
	SA-Best	203,364	19.35	+6.46	2	2
	Greens	61,610	5.86	–0.6	1	2
	Conservatives	36,525	3.48	–0.9	0	0
	Liberal Democrats	25,956	2.47	+1.9	0	0
	Animal Justice	22,822	2.17	+1.3	0	0
	Dignity	20,337	1.93	+1.0	0	0
	Child Protection	15,530	1.48	+1.5	0	0
	Stop Population Growth Now	12,878	1.22	+0.8	0	0
	Independents	4,602	0.40	–1.3	0	0
	Advance SA	4,227	0.44	+0.4	0	1
	Danig	94	0.00	+0.0	0	0
Total		1,050,874			11	22

Four hours after the close of polls, at approximately 10pmACDT, incumbent Premier Jay Weatherill telephoned Steven Marshall and conceded defeat. Weatherill subsequently publicly announced that he had conceded, saying, "I'm sorry I couldn't bring home another victory, but I do feel like one of those horses that has won four Melbourne Cups and I think the handicap has caught up with us on this occasion." Marshall claimed victory saying, "A massive thank you to the people of South Australia who have put their trust, their faith in me and the Liberal team for a new dawn, a new dawn for South Australia!"^{[9][10][11][12]} After the SA Best party failed to win a seat in the lower house, Nick Xenophon ruled out a return to federal politics.^[13]

Following the election outcome, Weatherill resigned as state Labor leader and returned to the backbench. Outgoing Minister for HealthPeter Malinauskas becameLeader of the Opposition, with outgoing Education MinisterSusan Close as deputy, following a Labor caucus meeting on 9 April 2018.^[14][15][16]

Notably, the Liberals won 16 of the 33 metropolitan seats, their best showing in the Adelaide area since their landslide victory in1993, when they took all but nine seats in the capital. Labor had spent all but 12 of the 48 years since the end of thePlaymander in government due to its traditional dominance of Adelaide. South Australia is one of the most centralised states in Australia; Adelaide is home to over three-quarters of the state's population. To a greater extent than other state capitals, Adelaide is decisive in deciding state election outcomes.

Since the end of the Playmander, most elections have seen Labor win most of the metropolitan seats, with most of the Liberal vote locked up in safe rural seats. In 2010, for instance, the Liberals won 51 percent of the two-party vote on a swing that should have been large enough to deliver them government. However, they only won nine seats in Adelaide, allowing Labor to eke out a two-seat majority. In 2014, while picking up a two percent two-party swing, the Liberals were only able to win an additional three seats in Adelaide.

Two Federal Senators from South Australia,Cory Bernardi andNick Xenophon formed new political parties which would contest the State Election.

In April 2017Cory Bernardi's new partyAustralian Conservatives merged withFamily First Party and its two state incumbentsDennis Hood andRobert Brokenshire joined the party. The Australian Conservatives at its first election would not win any seats. At the election, the Australian Conservatives suffered a 3.2% swing in the South Australian House of Assembly (from a Family First vote of 6.2% in 2014) for a primary vote of 3.0%. It stood 33 candidates for the lower house, none of whom came close to being elected. It suffered a swing of 0.9% swing in the Legislative Council (from a Family First vote of 4.4% in 2014) for a primary vote of 3.5%.^[17][18]

Nick Xenophon announced a fewSA Best lower housecandidates. Polls had included Xenophon's party as one of the four parties they monitored explicitly since February 2016.^[19] Originally, SA Best planned to only contest 12 seats.^[20] This was increased to 20.^[20] On 27 January, a landmark was passed when Xenophon announced eight new candidates, making a total of 24. This was the minimum number to be theoretically capable of forming majority government in the 47-seat house.^[21] On 1 February, Xenophon said it was likely the total number of SA Best lower house candidates would be around 30.^[22]

During the election Xenophon and his SA Best party pushed for a law that Ice users in South Australia will be forced into drug rehabilitation.^[23][24][25]

After early opinion polls indicated that SA Best could outperform the two main incumbent parties,^[26] the party ultimately contested 36 seats in the House of Assembly and put forward four candidates for the upper house. Opinion polling indicated a strong performance for the party was possible in at least 10 seats.^[27]

The table lists, according to The Poll Bludger website and based on theNick Xenophon Team's Senate vote performance at the2016 federal election, the strongest SA Best seats.^[27]

Though most of the listed seats are safe Liberal seats, a third party or candidate with a substantial vote was believed to be more likely to be successful in a traditionally safe seat than a marginal seat due to it being easier to out-poll the comparatively low primary vote of the seat's traditionally uncompetitive major party, usually before but occasionally after thedistribution of preferences (see2009 Frome state by-election). If the third party attracts enough first preference votes away from the dominant party, then it is possible that the preferences of voters for the second traditional party will assist the new party's candidate to overtake and therefore defeat the incumbent on thetwo-candidate-preferred vote (rather than the normally pivotaltwo-party-preferred vote). According toThe Poll Bludger, Nick Xenophon's SA Best candidates "will stand an excellent chance in any seat where they are able to outpoll one or other major party, whose voters will overwhelmingly place them higher than the candidate of the rival major party. In that circumstance, the more strongly performing major party candidate will be in serious trouble unless their own primary vote approaches 50%, which will be difficult to achieve in circumstances where approaching a quarter of the vote has gone to SA Best."^[27]

Analysis in December 2017 from polling company Essential Research found SA Best preference flows of 60/40 to Liberal/Labor, indicating that the substantial third party presence of SA Best is eating in to the Liberal vote somewhat greater than the Labor vote.^[28]

Ultimately, the SA Best party failed to secure any lower house seats,^[29] although there was a close contest on preferences in the seat of Heysen, which is based in theAdelaide Hills, where the final two party result was Liberal 51.2% to SA Best 48.2%.^[30] SA Best party leader Xenophon failed to win the seat of Hartley after finishing second on first preferences with 24.9%. The seat was retained by the Liberals after Xenophon was eliminated from the 2 party count, after falling between the Labor candidate, due to the preference redistributions from the other 4 candidates which totalled about 10% of the vote. The party came second on primary votes in ten seats; the strongest results were in Chaffey, Finniss, Hartley, Heysen and Taylor where the party received over 24%.^{[2][3][1][31][32]}
SA Best did, however, secure two upper house positions in theSouth Australian Legislative Council, with the successful election ofConnie Bonaros, the campaign manager, andFrank Pangallo, Xenophon's former media advisor.^[4][5]

Following the election, NXT SenatorStirling Griff claimed that polling indicated a 5% drop in SA Best's vote as a direct result of negative advertisements by two major parties as well as theAustralian Hotels Association (AHA). He also claimed paternity for an election ad that had been described as "wacky, cheesy"^[33] and that that ad actually led to a polling bump for SA Best.^[34]

There were fourteenpolitical parties registered with the Electoral Commission of South Australia at the time of the election, which were consequently eligible to field candidates for election.^[35] Aside from the major parties (Labor and Liberal parties), SA-Best, which polled higher figures than the major parties on occasion, ran in 36 seats, more than the 24 theoretically required to form government.^[36] The fourteen parties registered with the Commission wereAdvance SA,Animal Justice Party,Australian Conservatives,Child Protection Party,Danig Party of Australia,Dignity Party, theAustralian Greens SA,Australian Labor Party (SA Branch) andCountry Labor Party,Liberal Party of Australia (SA Division),Liberal Democratic Party, theNational Party of Australia (SA) Inc,Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST, andStop Population Growth Now.^[35] Since the previous election, six new parties had registered:Danig Party of Australia,Animal Justice Party,Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST,Australian Conservatives,Advance SA and theChild Protection Party. Four were no longer registered:FREE Australia Party,Fishing and Lifestyle Party,Multicultural Progress Party and theFamily First Party.^[37][38]

Like federal elections, South Australia hascompulsory voting and uses full-preferenceinstant-runoff voting forsingle-member electorates in the lower house. However, following similarSenate changes which took effect from the2016 federal election, South Australia'ssingle transferable vote in theproportionally represented upper house changed fromgroup voting tickets tooptional preferential voting − instructions for above the line votes were to mark '1' and then further preferences optional as opposed to preference flows from simply '1' above the line being determined by group voting tickets, while instructions for voters who instead opt to vote below the line were to provide at least twelve preferences as opposed to having to number all candidates, and with a savings provision to admit ballot papers which indicate at least six below-the-line preferences.^[39]

The2014 election resulted in ahung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. Thebalance of power rested with the twocrossbenchindependents,Bob Such andGeoff Brock. Such did not indicate who he would support in aminority government before he went on medical leave for abrain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election.University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem Macintyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowingPremierJay Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. Macintyre said:^[40]

If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.

The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 whenMartin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and enteredcabinet with Brock. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the government onconfidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote onconscience. It is Labor's longest-serving South Australian government and the second longest-serving South Australian government behind thePlaymander-assistedThomas Playford IV. Aside from Playford, it is the second time that any party has won four consecutive state elections in South Australia, the first occurred whenDon Dunstan led Labor to four consecutive victories between1970 and1977. Recenthung parliaments occurred when Labor came to government at the2002 election and prior to that at the1997 election which saw theSouth Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia, created in 1974, win re-election for the first time. Following the2014 election, Labor went fromminority tomajority government whenNat Cook won the2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, theJay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.^[41]Frances Bedford resigned from Labor and became an independent in March 2017 after ministerJack Snelling was endorsed forFlorey pre-selection as a result of themajor electoral redistribution ahead of the 2018 election. As with the rest of the crossbench, Bedford will continue to provide confidence and supply support to the incumbent Labor government.^[42]Duncan McFetridge resigned from the Liberals and moved to the crossbench as an independent in May 2017 afterStephen Patterson was endorsed forMorphett pre-selection.^[43]Troy Bell resigned from the Liberals and moved to the crossbench as an independent in August 2017 due to criminal financial allegations.^[44]

IndependentBob Such died from a brain tumour on 11 October 2014 which triggereda by-election in Fisher for 6 December.^[45] Labor'sNat Cook won the by-election by nine votes with a 7.3 percent two-party swing against the Liberals, resulting in a change fromminority tomajority government. On a 0.02 percent margin it is the most marginal seat in parliament.^[41] Despite this, theWeatherill Labor government keptcrossbench MPsGeoff Brock andMartin Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.^[41]ABCpsephologistAntony Green described the by-election as a "very bad result for the Liberal Party in South Australia" both state and federally, and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election is unprecedented in Australian history.^[46]

LiberalIain Evans inDavenport resigned from parliament on 30 October 2014 which triggered a2015 Davenport by-election for 31 January.^{[47][48][49][50]} LiberalSam Duluk won the seat despite a five percent two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a two-party marginal seat for the first time.^[51]ABCpsephologistAntony Green described it as "another poor result for the South Australian Liberal Party",^[52] following the2014 Fisher by-election which saw Labor go fromminority tomajority government.^[41]

Following the parliamentary resignation of former Labor MinisterBernard Finnigan on 12 November 2015 following his conviction for accessing child pornography.^[53]SDA secretaryPeter Malinauskas filled theLegislative Councilcasual vacancy in ajoint sitting of theParliament of South Australia on 1 December.^[54]

Following the parliamentary resignation of Labor MLCGerry Kandelaars on 17 February 2017,Justin Hanson filled the Legislative Council casual vacancy in a joint sitting of the Parliament of South Australia on 28 February.^[55][56]

The key dates for the 2018 election were:^[57]

• 17 February 2018 Issue of the writs by theGovernor of South Australia
• 23 February 2018 Close of rolls (noon)
• 23 February 2018 Close of nominations for party-endorsed candidates (5pm)
• 26 February 2018 Close of nominations for independent candidates (noon)
• 26 February 2018 Declaration of candidates and draws for ballot paper order (House of Assembly)
• 27 February 2018 Declaration of candidates and draws for ballot paper order (Legislative Council)
• 5 March 2018 Pre-poll voting opens
• 17 March 2018 election day (8am–6pm)
• 24 March 2018 last day to receive postal votes
• 26–30 March 2018 Expected formal declaration of results for House of Assembly seats in this week
• Mid April 2018 Expected formal declaration of results for Legislative council

Thelast state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect members for theHouse of Assembly and half of the members in theLegislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost theconfidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.^[58][59]

The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for general elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, six days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i)). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon three days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)).

To produce "fair" electoral boundaries, theElectoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA) has been required following the1989 election to redraw boundaries after each election through a "fairness clause" in the state constitution, with the objective that the party which receives over 50 percent of the statewide two-party vote at the forthcoming election should win the two-party vote in a majority of seats in terms of thetwo-party-preferred vote calculated in all seats regardless of any differingtwo-candidate-preferred vote.^[60]

The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission released a new draft redistribution in August 2016, as calculated from the 24 Liberal−23 Labor seat count bytwo-party vote as recorded in all 47 seats at the2014 state election (subsequent by-election results including the significant2014 Fisher by-election are not counted). The net change proposed would have seen a 27 Liberal−20 Labor notional seat count.^[61]

The proposed changes in the draft redistribution contained significant boundary redrawing. Seven seats would be renamed −Ashford would becomeBadcoe,Mitchell would becomeBlack,Bright would becomeGibson,Fisher would becomeHurtle Vale,Napier would becomeKing,Goyder would becomeNarungga, whileLittle Para would once again becomeElizabeth. In two-party terms since the previous election, the seats ofMawson andElder would become notionally Liberal seats, while Hurtle Vale would become a notionally Labor seat. Mawson in the outer southern suburbs would geographically change the most, stretching along the coast right through to as far as and includingKangaroo Island. Hurtle Vale's margin change of 9 percent would be the largest in the state, with Mawson to change 8.3 percent and King to change 8 percent.^{[61][62][63][64]}

Upon the release of the draft redistribution, Liberal MPRachel Sanderson organised the mass distribution of apro forma document in the two inner metropolitan suburbs ofWalkerville andGilberton, which aimed for residents to use the pro forma document to submit their objection to the commission in support of Sanderson's campaign to keep the two suburbs in her seat ofAdelaide, which in the draft would have been transferred to neighbouringTorrens. Sanderson's position however was at odds with her own party's submission which in fact agreed with the commission that Walkerville should be transferred to Torrens. Under the commission's draft proposal, the Liberal margin in Adelaide would have been reduced from 2.4 percent to 0.6 percent, but would have also resulted in the Labor margin in Torrens reduced from 3.5 percent to 1.1 percent. Of a record 130 total submissions received in response to the draft redistribution, about 100 (over three quarters of all submissions) were from Walkerville and Gilberton.^{[65][66][67][68][69][70]} As a result, the commission reversed the draft decision in the final publication.^[71]

Along with other various alterations in the final publication released in December 2016, in addition toHurtle Vale becoming a notionally Labor seat andMawson andElder becoming notionally Liberal seats in the draft redistribution, the final redistribution additionally turnedNewland and thebellwether ofColton in to notionally Liberal seats. These further changes provide a 27 Liberal−20 Labor notional seat count in two-party terms, a net change of three seats from Labor to Liberal since the previous election.^{[71][72][73][74]}

Labor objected to the commission's interpretation of the fairness requirements and appealed against it to theSupreme Court of South Australia in accordance with the provisions of theConstitution Act 1934 (SA). Labor sought to have the redistribution order quashed and have the Boundaries Commission make a fresh redistribution. The Grounds of Appeal were stated to relate to the Commission's interpretation of section 77 relating to the number of electors in each electoral district,^[75][76] with the redistribution reducing the number of voters in rural seats and increasing the number of voters in metropolitan seats, though still within theone vote, one value 10 percent tolerance. The Supreme Court appeal was rejected on 10 March 2017. Labor considered but decided against an appeal to the High Court.^[77][78]

Below post-redistribution margins listed were calculated by the South Australian Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission,^[71] and differ somewhat from those calculated by theABC'sAntony Green.^[79] The EDBC is the only redistribution authority in Australia that is required to examine voting patterns in drawing electoral boundaries, and in doing so, assume that the proportion of each party's vote in the declaration vote (postal, pre-poll and absent votes) is evenly distributed across the whole of each former electorate. Antony Green's margin estimates are more accurately calculated using declaration votes from the redistributed polling booths.^[80]

Retiring members are shown in italic text.

• Michael Atkinson MHA (Croydon)^[81]
• Paul Caica MHA (Colton)^[82]
• Steph Key MHA (Ashford)^[81]
• Jennifer Rankine MHA (Wright)^[81]
• Jack Snelling MHA (Playford)^[83]
• Leesa Vlahos MHA (Taylor)^[84]
• Gail Gago MLC^[85]
• John Gazzola MLC^[86]

• Mark Goldsworthy MHA (Kavel)^[87]
• Steven Griffiths MHA (Goyder)^[88]
• Michael Pengilly MHA (Finniss)^[87]
• Isobel Redmond MHA (Heysen)^[87]
• Mitch Williams MHA (MacKillop)^[87]

• Martin Hamilton-Smith MHA (Waite)^[89]

The July to September 2014 Newspoll saw Labor leading the Liberals on thetwo-party preferred (2PP) vote for the first time since 2009.^[90][91] The October to December 2015 Newspoll saw Marshall's leadership approval rating plummet 11 points to 30 percent, the equal lowest Newspoll approval rating in history for aSouth Australian Opposition Leader sinceDale Baker in 1990.^[92][93][91]

The first state-levelNewspoll to be conducted in two years, in late 2017, did not publish a 2PP figure, claiming that calculating it had become difficult due to the large third-party primary vote ofSA Best.^[94] Roy Morgan ceased publishing a 2PP figure from January 2018.^[95]

Essential polling's 2PP figures were calculated with approximated SA Best preference flows of 60/40 to Liberal/Labor.^[28]

• Candidates of the South Australian state election, 2018
• Members of the South Australian House of Assembly, 2018–2022
• Members of the South Australian Legislative Council, 2018–2022
• Results of the South Australian state election, 2018 (House of Assembly)
• Results of the 2018 South Australian state election (Legislative Council)
• 2014 South Australian state election
• 2022 South Australian state election
• Marshall ministry

• Electoral Commission SA: 2018 State ElectionArchived 11 January 2022 at theWayback Machine
• ABC Elections: SA Election 2018
• SA election calculator

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