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2018 Oregon gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
← 2016 (special)November 6, 20182022 →
 
NomineeKate BrownKnute Buehler
PartyDemocraticRepublican
AllianceWorking Families
Popular vote934,498814,988
Percentage50.05%43.65%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Brown:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Buehler:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

ElectedGovernor

Kate Brown
Democratic

Elections in Oregon
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections

The2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect thegovernor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the2016 special election,Democratic governorKate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years ofJohn Kitzhaber's term.[1]

TheRepublican Party nominatedKnute Buehler, her opponent in the2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; theIndependent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kate Brown
U.S. senators
Organizations

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Brown
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticKate Brown (incumbent)324,54181.9
DemocraticEd Jones33,4648.4
DemocraticCandace Neville29,1107.4
DemocraticWrite-ins8,9122.3
Total votes396,027100.0

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in2014 and2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)[3][17]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Knute Buehler
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
  • Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon[32]
  • Antoinette Hatfield, former first lady of Oregon[33]
  • Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder ofNike[34][9]
Organizations
Newspapers
Greg Wooldridge
State legislators
Organizations

Debates

[edit]
Host
network		DateLink(s)Participants
Knute
Buehler		Sam
Carpenter		Greg
Wooldridge
KXL-FMMay 11, 2018[51]InvitedInvitedInvited

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Knute
Buehler		Sam
Carpenter		Lori
Chavez-DeRemer		Greg
Wooldridge		OtherUndecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[52]May 3–6, 2018438± 4.7%33%25%–8%–33%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[53]April 19–22, 20181,013± 3.1%39%24%–12%6%[a]20%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]March 19–25, 2018628–23%23%–4%–50%
iCitizen[55]September 13–28, 2017168± 3.9%28%–8%31%6%26%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Buehler
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Carpenter
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanKnute Buehler144,10345.9
RepublicanSam Carpenter90,57228.8
RepublicanGreg C. Wooldridge63,04920.1
RepublicanBruce Cuff4,8571.5
RepublicanJeff Smith4,6911.5
RepublicanDavid Stauffer2,0960.7
RepublicanWrite-ins1,7010.5
RepublicanJonathan Edwards III8610.3
RepublicanKeenan Bohach7870.3
RepublicanBrett Hyland7550.2
RepublicanJack W. Tacy5120.2
Total votes313,984100

Independent Party primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Skye Allen[3]
  • Dan Pistoresi[3]
  • Patrick Starnes[3]

Results

[edit]
Independent primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independent PartyWrite-ins13,49756.8
Independent PartyPatrick Starnes6,03025.4
Independent PartySkye J. Allen2,40510.6
Independent PartyDan Pistoresi1,8467.8
Total votes23,778100.0

General election

[edit]
Knute Buehler campaign logo

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[56]TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post[57]TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[58]Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[59]Tilt DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[61]TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos[62]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[63][b]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Politico[64]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Governing[65]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
  2. ^The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

[edit]
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kate
Brown (D)		Knute
Buehler (R)		Other/Undecided
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[66]October 4–30, 2018October 30, 201844.0%39.7%16.3%Brown +4.3%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Knute
Buehler (R)		Patrick
Starnes (IPO)		OtherUndecided
Hoffman Research Group[67]October 29–30, 2018694± 3.7%45%42%4%2%[68]7%
Emerson College[69]October 26–28, 2018747± 3.7%47%42%–7%4%
DHM Research[70]October 4–11, 2018500± 4.4%40%35%4%3%[71]17%
Riley Research Associates[72]September 24 – October 7, 2018356± 5.0%49%45%4%3%[73]–
Clout Research (R)[74]September 20–23, 2018679± 3.8%42%41%–––
Hoffman Research Group[75]September 12–13, 2018680± 3.8%46%36%4%2%[68]12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)[76]September 6–11, 20182,831± 2.0%41%43%–––
Clout Research (R)[77]July 30–31, 2018559± 4.1%42%43%––15%
Gravis Marketing[78]July 16–17, 2018770± 3.5%45%45%––10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]March 19–25, 20182,067± 2.2%41%46%––14%
DHM Research[79]January 25–31, 2018604± 4.0%46%29%––25%
Zogby Analytics[80]November 10–12, 2017508± 4.4%39%36%––25%
iCitizen[55]September 13–28, 2017645± 3.9%41%40%–11%8%
Hypothetical polling

with Sam Carpenter

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Sam
Carpenter (R)		OtherUndecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]March 19–25, 20182,067± 2.2%41%46%–13%
Zogby Analytics[80]November 10–12, 2017508± 4.4%38%36%–26%

with Greg Wooldridge

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Greg
Wooldridge (R)		OtherUndecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]March 19–25, 20182,067± 2.2%42%47%–11%
iCitizen[55]September 13–28, 2017645± 3.9%42%39%11%7%

with Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Brown (D)		Lori
Chavez-DeRemer (R)		OtherUndecided
iCitizen[55]September 13–28, 2017645± 3.9%40%34%17%8%

Results

[edit]
Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018[81]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticKate Brown (incumbent)934,49850.05%−0.57%
RepublicanKnute Buehler814,98843.65%+0.20%
Independent PartyPatrick Starnes53,3922.86%+0.42%
LibertarianNick Chen28,9271.55%−0.77%
ConstitutionAaron Auer21,1451.13%+0.13%
ProgressiveChris Henry11,0130.59%N/A
Write-in3,0340.16%-0.01%
Total votes1,866,997100.00%N/A
Democratichold

By congressional district

[edit]

Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, withOregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressmanPeter DeFazio andOregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarianKurt Schrader.[82]

DistrictKate
Brown		Knute
Buehler		Elected
Representative
1st54%41%Suzanne Bonamici
2nd35%57%Greg Walden
3rd69%26%Earl Blumenauer
4th45%47%Peter DeFazio
5th46%48%Kurt Schrader

By county

[edit]
CountyKate Brown

Democrat

VotesKnute Buehler

Republican

VotesPatrick Starnes

Independent

VotesNick Chen

Libertarian

VotesAaron Auer

Constitution

VotesChris Henry

Progressive

VotesWrite-inVotesTotal
Baker19.0%1,57272.9%6,0234.2%3471.6%1321.5%1260.6%490.2%158,264
Benton60.1%26,59233.9%14,9902.8%1,2251.6%7210.8%3570.7%2930.1%5344,231
Clackamas45.5%91,08849.2%98,4682.4%4,7261.4%2,8270.9%1,8530.5%9410.2%363200,266
Clatsop48.0%8,90944.7%8,2943.3%6161.6%3051.4%2590.8%1400.2%3518,558
Columbia38.7%9,51952.6%12,9534.0%9751.9%4802.0%4810.7%1670.2%4224,617
Coos33.5%9,62257.5%16,5204.4%1,2621.8%5051.8%5100.9%2560.2%5228,727
Crook19.8%2,28573.8%8,5163.6%4181.0%1101.2%1400.4%420.2%2511,536
Curry35.9%4,14156.1%6,4743.8%4431.6%1881.7%1990.7%750.1%1311,533
Deschutes42.3%40,67652.0%49,9832.9%2,7641.4%1,3530.8%7660.5%4600.1%9796,099
Douglas24.0%11,82465.8%32,4135.0%2,4811.5%7382.7%1,3260.7%3680.2%8849,238
Gilliam22.0%21869.6%6914.6%461.9%191.4%140.5%50.0%0993
Grant16.8%64975.9%2,9233.9%1511.2%481.5%560.5%190.2%73,853
Harney16.5%58476.7%2,7223.6%1260.8%291.8%630.6%200.1%33,547
Hood River59.9%6,48535.0%3,7892.5%2711.3%1360.7%810.5%550.1%1110,828
Jackson41.4%42,20750.7%51,6234.1%4,1961.7%1,7201.3%1,3130.7%7160.1%132101,907
Jefferson29.8%2,63562.3%5,5184.4%3881.3%1111.6%1450.5%450.1%108,852
Josephine30.2%12,21460.5%24,4994.3%1,7351.9%7672.2%8810.8%3080.2%6640,470
Klamath22.3%6,30167.7%19,1344.9%1,3712.3%6432.0%5640.7%1980.2%4528,256
Lake13.4%47678.0%2,7744.4%1551.5%522.3%810.4%140.1%53,557
Lane54.7%96,84138.2%67,7373.2%5,6831.8%3,1061.2%2,1730.8%1,3350.2%297177,172
Lincoln52.1%12,61040.8%9,8843.4%8251.6%3911.2%3020.7%1640.2%4324,219
Linn30.1%16,46160.5%33,0514.2%2,2931.9%1,0612.2%1,2040.8%4210.3%17154,662
Malheur24.1%2,15966.9%6,0004.1%3641.7%1562.5%2270.6%520.1%128,970
Marion43.5%55,23849.9%63,3232.8%3,5111.7%2,1001.4%1,8310.5%6500.3%325126,978
Morrow22.5%84467.5%2,5344.3%1631.8%683.0%1110.8%290.1%53,754
Multnomah73.9%279,38422.1%83,5071.7%6,3091.2%4,4470.5%1,7930.6%2,1740.1%484378,098
Polk41.6%15,52951.8%19,3412.9%1,0761.6%5891.3%4910.6%2060.2%8337,315
Sherman19.3%19074.7%7363.5%340.7%71.5%150.2%20.1%1985
Tillamook42.7%5,61650.3%6,6063.5%4641.2%1581.5%2020.6%770.1%1913,142
Umatilla29.4%7,08563.0%15,1783.7%8851.7%4191.6%3930.5%1170.1%3124,108
Union24.5%2,87767.9%7,9833.8%4411.4%1621.8%2090.5%600.2%2411,756
Wallowa27.0%1,08866.2%2,6683.6%1451.2%471.5%610.5%190.1%44,032
Wasco40.5%4,60451.4%5,8413.8%4271.8%2031.6%1770.7%850.2%2011,357
Washington55.5%137,88639.2%97,2862.2%5,5351.7%4,2290.8%2,0100.5%1,1610.1%372248,479
Wheeler19.3%15872.6%5944.6%381.8%151.2%100.4%30.0%0818
Yamhill39.1%17,93153.3%24,4123.3%1,5031.9%8851.6%7210.6%2870.2%8145,820

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

[edit]
  1. ^KOIN 6 News Staff (November 8, 2016)."Kate Brown wins 2-year term as Oregon governor". KOIN 6 News. Archived fromthe original on November 9, 2016. RetrievedNovember 15, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  2. ^Borrud, Hillary (September 25, 2017)."Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election".The Oregonian. RetrievedSeptember 26, 2017.
  3. ^abcdefghijkRadnovich, Connor (March 7, 2018)."17 people running for Oregon governor, the most crowded field in two decades".Statesman Journal. RetrievedMarch 8, 2018.
  4. ^Warner, Gary A. (August 7, 2017)."Political parties rev up for 2018 election".The Bulletin. RetrievedAugust 19, 2017.
  5. ^Riley, John (November 14, 2017)."Victory Fund endorses Rich Madeleno for governor".Metro Weekly. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2018.
  6. ^Lee, Steve (October 5, 2017)."HRC endorses Oregon Gov. Kate Brown for re-election".LGBT Weekly. Archived fromthe original on October 6, 2017. RetrievedOctober 14, 2017.
  7. ^"Human Rights Campaign Endorses Oregon Governor Brown for Re-Election".Go Local PDX. October 5, 2017. RetrievedOctober 14, 2017.
  8. ^"Oregon AFL-CIO Endorses Kate Brown for Governor".Oregon AFL-CIO. September 9, 2017. Archived fromthe original on October 15, 2017. RetrievedOctober 14, 2017.
  9. ^abcdefWarner, Gary A. (October 9, 2017)."Capitol roundup: Oregon House seats up for grabs".The Bulletin. RetrievedNovember 6, 2017.
  10. ^"Planned Parenthood Backs Oregon Governor's Election Bid". Oregon Patch. October 25, 2017. RetrievedNovember 6, 2017.
  11. ^abcWarner, Gary A. (August 3, 2017)."Bend's Buehler running for governor".The Bulletin. RetrievedAugust 3, 2017.
  12. ^Achen, Paris (August 31, 2017)."A pro-Trump alternative in the governor's race?".Portland Tribune. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2017.
  13. ^"Bend businessman Sam Carpenter declares bid for governor". KTVZ. October 25, 2017. Archived fromthe original on October 29, 2017. RetrievedOctober 28, 2017.
  14. ^Achen, Paris (October 25, 2017)."Bend businessman Sam Carpenter to run for governor".East Oregonian. RetrievedOctober 28, 2017.
  15. ^"Oregon Secretary Of State".secure.sos.state.or.us. RetrievedFebruary 18, 2018.
  16. ^Hubbard, Saul (February 3, 2018)."Portland political conservative makes late entry into Oregon gubernatorial race".The Register-Guard. Archived fromthe original on February 3, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2018.
  17. ^Withycombe, Claire (April 26, 2018)."GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out of race".Portland Tribune. Archived fromthe original on April 27, 2018.
  18. ^Jaquiss, Nigel (June 26, 2017)."First Potential GOP Challenger For Gov. Kate Brown Surfaces".Willamette Week. RetrievedJuly 9, 2017.
  19. ^Borrud, Hillary (October 10, 2017)."Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer will not run for Oregon governor in 2018".The Oregonian. RetrievedOctober 11, 2017.
  20. ^abAchen, Paris (October 31, 2017)."Social conservatives seek governor's candidate".Portland Tribune. RetrievedNovember 6, 2017.
  21. ^"House Minority Leader Mike McLane Rules Out Run for Governor in 2018".wweek.com. September 6, 2017.
  22. ^Lehman, Chris (November 8, 2016)."Oregon Elects Kate Brown As Governor". Oregon Public Broadcasting. RetrievedNovember 15, 2016.
  23. ^Skelley, Geoffrey; Kondik, Kyle (April 20, 2017)."Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMay 6, 2017.
  24. ^Borrud, Hillary (August 23, 2017)."Secretary of State Dennis Richardson announces he will not run for governor".The Oregonian. RetrievedAugust 24, 2017.
  25. ^Warner, Gary A. (September 19, 2017)."Governor candidates at the Pendleton Round-Up".The Bulletin. RetrievedSeptember 24, 2017.
  26. ^abcdefg"Lawmakers Endorse Knute Buehler".Knute Buehler for Governor.
  27. ^Esquivel, Sal (August 8, 2017)."Esquivel: Knute Buehler is the Leader Oregon Needs".Oregon Catalyst. RetrievedNovember 6, 2017.
  28. ^"Letter: Hansell supports Buehler in GOP race".East Oregonian. April 27, 2018.
  29. ^"I'm proud to endorse fellow Roseburg native, friend and colleague Knute Buehler for Governor. He'll bring the..."Twitter. October 7, 2017.
  30. ^E. Werner Reschke."I support Dr. Knute Buehler for Governor".Twitter.
  31. ^Warner, Gary A. (August 14, 2017)."Where were you in '82?".The Bulletin. RetrievedAugust 19, 2017.
  32. ^Knute Buehler."Proud to have the endorsement of the Independent Party Co-Chair Rob Harris. We need new leadership to solve the big problems in our state. I will lead where Kate Brown has failed. #orpol #knuteforgov".Twitter.
  33. ^Knute Buehler."Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov".Twitter.
  34. ^Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2017)."Phil Knight contributes $500,000 to Republican gubernatorial candidate Knute Buehler".The Oregonian. RetrievedAugust 19, 2017.
  35. ^"NFIB Oregon PAC Endorses Knute Buehler for Governor".NFIB. August 13, 2018.
  36. ^ab"Letter: Cattlemen's Association, Farm Bureau endorse Buehler".Capital Press. October 24, 2018.
  37. ^"Our View: Buehler would bring change as governor".Blue Mountain Eagle. October 23, 2018.
  38. ^"Editorial: Vote Buehler in Republican primary".The Bulletin. April 23, 2018.
  39. ^"Editorial: Buehler the best choice for Oregon".The Bulletin. October 17, 2018. RetrievedOctober 18, 2018.
  40. ^McInally, Mike (October 17, 2018)."Editorial: Knute Buehler for governor of Oregon".Corvallis Gazette-Times.
  41. ^"Our View: Leadership needed for Oregon".The Daily Astorian. October 22, 2018.
  42. ^"Buehler for Governor".East Oregonian. October 23, 2018. RetrievedOctober 24, 2018.
  43. ^"Oregon needs experience, decisive leadership to improve: Editorial endorsements".The Oregonian. April 29, 2018. RetrievedMay 4, 2018.
  44. ^"Editorial endorsement: Knute Buehler for Oregon governor".The Oregonian. October 14, 2018. RetrievedOctober 16, 2018.
  45. ^"Our opinion: Vote for Buehler in GOP governor primary".Portland Tribune. May 7, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 12, 2018. RetrievedMay 11, 2018.
  46. ^"Our Opinion: Buehler brings necessary tension".Portland Tribune. October 16, 2018. Archived fromthe original on October 17, 2018. RetrievedOctober 16, 2018.
  47. ^"For governor: Brown, Buehler".The Register-Guard. April 28, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2018. RetrievedMay 4, 2018.
  48. ^"WW's May 2018 Endorsements for Oregon Statewide Office".Willamette Week. April 25, 2018.
  49. ^"Bill Post endorses Capt. Greg Wooldridge for governor".Wooldridge For Governor. April 18, 2018. Archived fromthe original on April 28, 2018. RetrievedApril 28, 2018.
  50. ^"ENDORSEMENT: Right to Life endorses Wooldridge".Wooldridge For Governor. March 8, 2018. Archived fromthe original on April 28, 2018. RetrievedApril 28, 2018.
  51. ^Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
  52. ^Global Strategy Group (D)
  53. ^Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)
  54. ^abcdTriton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)
  55. ^abcdiCitizen
  56. ^"2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedApril 10, 2021.
  57. ^"The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings".The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  58. ^"2018 Governor Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Archived fromthe original on October 18, 2018. RetrievedOctober 17, 2018.
  59. ^"2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedNovember 15, 2017.
  60. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor".www.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedNovember 15, 2017.
  61. ^"2018 Governor Races".RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  62. ^"2018 Governor Race Ratings".Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  63. ^"2018 Midterm Power Ranking".Fox News.
  64. ^"Politico Race Ratings".Politico.
  65. ^"2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups".www.governing.com. Archived fromthe original on October 21, 2018. RetrievedJuly 18, 2018.
  66. ^Real Clear Politics
  67. ^Hoffman Research Group
  68. ^abAaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
  69. ^Emerson College
  70. ^DHM Research
  71. ^Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
  72. ^Riley Research Associates
  73. ^Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
  74. ^Clout Research (R)
  75. ^Hoffman Research Group
  76. ^Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)
  77. ^Clout Research (R)
  78. ^Gravis Marketing
  79. ^DHM Research
  80. ^abZogby Analytics
  81. ^Content Manager WebDrawer – 2018 General Election Official Results
  82. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d0da4067-8219-48b6-9403-6bb5782d2dba

External links

[edit]

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