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TheDivision of Mayo (SA) in theHouse of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 107,554 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 85.52% 8.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election for theAustralian House of Representatives seat ofMayo took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbentCentre Alliance MPRebekha Sharkie.[1]
In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, theAustralian Broadcasting Corporation'spsephologistAntony Green's electoral computer had predicted Sharkie to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]
The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known asSuper Saturday.
Due to theHigh Court ruling against SenatorKaty Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoingparliamentary eligibility crisis, Sharkie and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while thePerth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] TheSpeaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:
Liberal candidateGeorgina Downer deleted herTwitter account on 13 June 2018, claiming thattrolls had been attacking her with bad language, with counterclaims from Twitter users that she had deleted legitimate policy questions posted to herFacebook account.[5]
Historically, the rural seat ofMayo has been a comfortably safeLiberal seat intwo-party terms, though over the past two decades, the Liberals in Mayo had been repeatedly left vulnerable byseveral strong election results from minor parties and independents. Mayo was represented by Liberal candidate Georgina Downer's father,Alexander Downer, for the first 24 years of Mayo's 34-year history.[6] Further back, others in theDowner family including aPremier of South Australia represented overlapping geographical areas, in the federal seat ofAngas and the state seats ofBarossa andEncounter Bay.[7][8][9]
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[10]
Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.[7]
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Democrats | Tracey-Lee Cane | Pastor[11] | |
| People | Kelsie Harfouche | Beauty therapist and business owner[12] | |
| Greens | Major Sumner | High-profileNgarrindjeri elder,Order of Australia recipient, community worker and activist[13] | |
| Liberal | Georgina Downer | Lawyer,Institute of Public Affairs research fellow, former diplomat[14] | |
| Centre Alliance | Rebekha Sharkie | Previous MP forMayo elected at the2016 federal election[15] | |
| Liberal Democrats | Stephen Humble | Contested the2012 Port Adelaide state by-election and theupper house at the 2018 state election[7] | |
| Labor | Reg Coutts | Telecommunications consultant and academic professor[16] | |
TheFamily First Party (now theAustralian Conservatives) contested Mayo at the last election on 4.6% (−2.5%) but declined to contest the by-election.[17]
| Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | Primary vote | TCP vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | LIB | ALP | GRN | OTH | UND | CA | LIB | |||||
| 23 July 2018 | YouGov−Galaxy | The Advertiser[18] | 540 | 47% | 35% | 9% | 7% | 2% | − | 59% | 41% | |
| 21 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Australia Institute[19] | 736 | 43.5% | 32.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 62% | 38% | |
| 7 June 2018 | YouGov−Galaxy | The Advertiser[20] | 515 | 44% | 37% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 58% | 42% | |
| 5 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Australia Institute[21] | 1031 | 40.1% | 34.4% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 58% | 42% | |
| 2016 election | 34.9% | 37.8% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 55.0% | 45.0% | |||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centre Alliance | Rebekha Sharkie | 39,369 | 44.37 | +9.51 | |
| Liberal | Georgina Downer | 33,219 | 37.44 | −0.32 | |
| Greens | Major Sumner | 7,898 | 8.90 | +0.85 | |
| Labor | Reg Coutts | 5,370 | 6.05 | −7.47 | |
| Christian Democrats | Tracey-Lee Cane | 1,348 | 1.52 | +1.52 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Stephen Humble | 809 | 0.91 | −0.30 | |
| People's Party | Kelsie Harfouche | 716 | 0.81 | +0.81 | |
| Total formal votes | 88,729 | 96.47 | −0.64 | ||
| Informal votes | 3,246 | 3.53 | +0.64 | ||
| Turnout | 91,975 | 85.52 | −8.67 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Liberal | Georgina Downer | 49,375 | 55.65 | +0.30 | |
| Labor | Reg Coutts | 39,354 | 44.35 | −0.30 | |
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Centre Alliance | Rebekha Sharkie | 51,042 | 57.53 | +2.56 | |
| Liberal | Georgina Downer | 37,687 | 42.47 | −2.56 | |
| Centre Alliancehold | Swing | +2.56 | |||
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