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2017 Kansas's 4th congressional district special election

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2017 Kansas's 4th congressional district special election

← 2016April 11, 2017 (2017-04-11)2018 →

Kansas's 4th congressional district
Turnout28.9%[1]
 
NomineeRon EstesJames Thompson
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote64,04456,435
Percentage52.2%46.0%

Results by county

Estes

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Thompson

  50–60%


U.S. Representative before election

Mike Pompeo
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ron Estes
Republican

Elections in Kansas
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Aspecial election was held on April 11, 2017, to determine the member of theUnited States House of Representatives forKansas's 4th congressional district after the incumbent,Mike Pompeo, resigned because of his nomination byPresidentDonald Trump asDirector of the Central Intelligence Agency. RepublicanRon Estes received 52.2% of the vote and won, while runner-up DemocratJames Thompson lost with 46% of the vote.

Background

[edit]
Main article:Kansas's 4th congressional district

Kansas's 4th congressional district is located in the south-center region of the state, centering on the city ofWichita andSedgwick County, which contain approximately two-thirds of the district's voters.[2][3] Sixteen other counties make up the rest of the district, includingBarber,Butler,Chautauqua,Comanche,Cowley,Edwards,Elk,Greenwood,Harper,Harvey,Kingman,Kiowa,Pratt,Stafford, andSumner counties, as well as a portion of southwesternPawnee County.[4] Regarded as a conservative district,[5] the seat is considered to besafe for Republicans;[Note 1] the Fourth District had aCook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 following the2016 presidential election.[7] Going into the election, the seat had not been held by a Democrat in more than twenty years, sinceDan Glickman lost his reelection campaign in the1994 midterms.[8] At the time of the special election, the Republican Party held about a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration in the district, with 186,850 registered Republicans to 95,788 registered Democrats.[9][10] RepublicanDonald Trump won the district by a 27-point margin in the 2016 presidential election, receiving 60% of the vote to DemocratHillary Clinton's 33%. RepublicanMitt Romney defeated DemocratBarack Obama by a similar 26-point marginin 2012, taking approximately 62% of the vote to Obama's 36%.[11]

Election

[edit]

On January 23, 2017, theU.S. representative forKansas's 4th congressional district,Mike Pompeo, resigned after being nominated byPresidentDonald Trump asDirector of the Central Intelligence Agency. He was confirmed by theUnited States Senate.Gov.Sam Brownback had five days to declare a special election to be held between 45 and 60 days after being called.[12] The day following Pompeo's resignation, Brownback declared a special election to take place on April 11.[13]

Nominees for each party were selected by a district convention of party activists. Independent candidates were eligible to gainballot access upon submitting 3,000 signatures within the first 25 days after the election was called.[14]

Although not initially expecting a close race, theNational Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $100,000 on advertising in the last week of the campaign, and Republican politiciansSen.Ted Cruz ofTexas,PresidentDonald Trump, andVice PresidentMike Pence recordedrobocalls or campaigned in person supporting their nominee Ron Estes.[15][16] On April 10, theCook Political Report moved the rating of the district to Lean Republican.[17] Estes won the election by 6.2% over political newcomer James Thompson. This not only marked a dramatic shift from the 61.6%–29.6% margin that Pompeohad been re-elected by in the previous year's regularly scheduled election, but this was also the closest race in the district since incumbentTodd Tiahrt, who held the seat from 1995 to 2011, edged out Democrat Randy Rathburn by 3% in1996.[18]

Republican Party

[edit]

The Republican Party selected a nominee at a convention held on February 9, 2017.[19]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ron Estes

Federal Politicians

Results

[edit]
Republican Convention
CandidateFirst ballotPct.Second ballotPct.
Ron Estes5846%6652%
Alan Cobb2822%4334%
Todd Tiahrt2016%1714%
Joseph Ashby108%Eliminated
George Bruce108%Eliminated

Democratic Party

[edit]

The Democratic Party selected a nominee at a convention held on February 11, 2017.[19]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • James Thompson, attorney and U.S. Army veteran[33][34]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Kevass Harding, former Wichita School Board member[19]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
James Thompson

U.S. senators

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic Convention
CandidateFirst ballotPct.Second ballotPct.
James Thompson1744%2154%
Dennis McKinney1641%1846%
Laura Lombard38%Eliminated
Charlie Walker38%Eliminated
Robert Tillman00%Eliminated

Libertarian Party

[edit]

The Libertarian Party selected a nominee at a convention held on February 11, 2017.[19]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Gordon Bakken, candidate for this seat in 2016
  • John Kostner, farmer and rancher

Results

[edit]
Libertarian Convention
CandidateFirst ballotPct.
Chris Rockhold1785%
Gordon Bakken315%
John Kostner00%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[42]Lean RApril 10, 2017
Inside Elections[43]Lean RApril 7, 2017

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Estes (R)
James
Thompson (D)
Chris
Rockhold (L)
Undecided
Lincoln Park Strategies (D-Thompson)[44]Late February 2017500± 4.4%56%32%4%

Results

[edit]

TheAssociated Press called the election for Estes while he was leading by 6% with 88% of precincts reporting. The lead was 6.2% when all the votes were tallied.[45][46]

Kansas's 4th congressional district special election, 2017[47]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRon Estes64,04452.2%−8.5%
DemocraticJames Thompson56,43546.0%+16.4%
LibertarianChris Rockhold2,1151.7%−1.1%
Total votes122,594100.0%
Republicanhold

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^For example,Harry Enten, covering the race forFiveThirtyEight, wrote that "It's a Republican district, full stop."[6]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2017 Special Election – Official Turnout"(XLS).2017 Election Information.Kansas Secretary of State. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2019.
  2. ^Isbell, Matthew (April 10, 2017)."What to Watch for In the Kansas 4th District Special Election (Updated with Results)".MCI Maps.Archived from the original on July 28, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  3. ^Lefler, Dion (May 2, 2012)."Kansas Senate's Congressional district map doesn't divide any major cities".The Wichita Eagle.Archived from the original on February 26, 2019. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  4. ^Kansas - Congressional District 4(PDF) (Map). 115th Congress of the United States.United States Census Bureau. April 2017. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  5. ^Hegeman, Roxana (April 11, 2017)."Republicans hold on to Kansas House seat in a close special election".Business Insider.Associated Press.Archived from the original on February 15, 2019. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  6. ^Enten, Harry (April 11, 2017)."Why Republicans Are Worried About Kansas".FiveThirtyEight.Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  7. ^"Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress by The Cook Political Report (Arranged by State/District)"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. 2017. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on June 7, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  8. ^Clarkin, Mary (December 18, 2016)."Pompeo's move would bring another election in 4th Congressional District".The Hutchinson News.Archived from the original on February 26, 2019. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  9. ^"2017 Special Election – Certified Voter Registration and Party Affiliation Numbers"(XLS). Kansas Secretary of State. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  10. ^Lefler, Dion; Lowry, Bryan; Salazar, Daniel; Shorman, Jonathan (April 11, 2017)."Republican Ron Estes wins in 4th District congressional race".The Wichita Eagle.McClatchy News.Archived from the original on February 4, 2019. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  11. ^Nir, David (November 19, 2012)."Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008".Daily Kos.Archived from the original on February 18, 2019. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2019.
  12. ^Evans, Scott."If Rep. Mike Pompeo takes over CIA, how is his House seat replaced?". RetrievedDecember 1, 2016.
  13. ^"Governor sets April 11 election to fill Pompeo's seat".Associated Press. January 25, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  14. ^Hancock, Peter (January 12, 2017)."Kansas House passes bill on special elections for Congress as Pompeo stands for confirmation for CIA".Lawrence Journal-World. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2017.
  15. ^Bradner, Eric (April 10, 2017)."GOP cavalry heads to Kansas ahead of close House election".CNN. RetrievedSeptember 27, 2017.
  16. ^"Trump records robocall for Kansas special election".The Hill. April 10, 2017. RetrievedSeptember 27, 2017.
  17. ^"KS-04 Moves to Lean Republican, GA-06 to Toss Up". Archived fromthe original on April 10, 2017. RetrievedApril 10, 2017.
  18. ^ab"Former U.S. Rep. Tiahrt exploring whether to seek old seat". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  19. ^abcdFaulx, Nadya (February 8, 2017)."Kansas Parties To Select Candidates For 4th District Special Election".KMUW. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  20. ^Tv, Ksn (January 25, 2017)."State Treasurer Ron Estes announces run for 4th Congressional District seat". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  21. ^Lefler, Dion (February 9, 2017)."Estes wins GOP nomination for Pompeo seat".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedFebruary 12, 2017.
  22. ^Dinell, David (February 1, 2017)."Congressional seat sought by Derby man".The Derby Informer. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  23. ^Salazar, Daniel (January 10, 2017)."Wichita lawyer George Bruce announces run for Congress".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedJanuary 13, 2017.
  24. ^ab"Here's the latest on who's running for Pompeo's seat in Congress". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  25. ^"Kansas governor sets April 11 election to fill Pompeo's seat | McClatchy DC". Archived fromthe original on January 27, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2017.
  26. ^"Eric Kidwell announces bid for 4th Congressional District seat".KWCH. January 31, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  27. ^abcdef"Who wants to replace Mike Pompeo in Congress?".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedDecember 1, 2016.
  28. ^Ryan, Kelsey (January 12, 2017)."Wichita council member Pete Meitzner to run for Pompeo's seat".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2017.
  29. ^"Meitzner withdraws from Congressional race".KAKE. February 8, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  30. ^ab"Trump appointments have Republicans lining up for Senate, House vacancies". RetrievedDecember 1, 2016.
  31. ^ab"Field narrows again in race to replace Pompeo".The Wichita Eagle. November 30, 2016. RetrievedDecember 2, 2016.
  32. ^Lowry, Bryan (January 24, 2017)."Here's the latest on who's running for Pompeo's seat in Congress".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  33. ^matthew.heilman."James Thompson announces campaign for 4th Congressional District". RetrievedFebruary 2, 2017.
  34. ^Lefler, Dion (February 11, 2017)."Lawyer James Thompson wins Democratic nomination for Congress".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedFebruary 12, 2017.
  35. ^abcdeEckels, Carla (December 13, 2016)."Several Kansas Democrats Interested In Running For 4th District Seat".KMUW. RetrievedDecember 16, 2016.
  36. ^Ryan, Kelsey (January 13, 2017)."Laura Lombard to run as Democrat for Pompeo's seat".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2017.
  37. ^"Former lawmaker Dennis McKinney to announce bid for Congress - Statehouse Live / LJWorld.com". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  38. ^"Charlie Walker 4 KS (@charliewalkerKS) - Twitter". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2017.
  39. ^Lefler, Dion (February 6, 2017)."15 things you need to know about the race to replace Pompeo".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2017.
  40. ^Rockhold, Chris (January 25, 2017)."Chris Rockhold".Facebook. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2017.
  41. ^Finger, Stan (February 11, 2017)."Chris Rockhold earns Libertarian nod for 4th District special election".The Wichita Eagle. RetrievedFebruary 12, 2017.
  42. ^Dave Wasserman (April 10, 2017)."KS-04 Moves to Lean Republican, GA-06 to Toss Up". RetrievedJanuary 2, 2022.
  43. ^"Kansas 4 Special: Not So Solid for Republicans". The Rothenberg Political Report. April 7, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2022.
  44. ^Lincoln Park Strategies (D-Thompson)
  45. ^"Live results: Kansas special election".The Hill. RetrievedSeptember 27, 2017.
  46. ^"Live Results: Republicans Defend House Seat in Kansas Special Election". RetrievedApril 12, 2017.
  47. ^"Kansas Secretary of State. 2017 General Election Official Vote Totals"(PDF). www.kssos.org.Archived(PDF) from the original on July 9, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 7, 2023.

External links

[edit]

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