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2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2016 United States gubernatorial elections.

2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election
← 2012November 8, 20162020 →
 
NomineeJim JusticeBill ColeCharlotte Pritt
PartyDemocraticRepublicanMountain
Popular vote350,408301,98742,068
Percentage49.09%42.30%5.89%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Justice:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Cole:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election

Earl Ray Tomblin
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jim Justice
Democratic

Elections in West Virginia
Presidential elections
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2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
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The2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect thegovernor of West Virginia, concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election, as well aselections to theUnited States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections. The primaries were held on May 10.

IncumbentDemocratic governorEarl Ray Tomblin was barred from running for a second full term. He had ascended to the governorship uponJoe Manchin's resignation in 2010, won a2011 special election to complete the term, and won a full term in2012. Under theWest Virginia Constitution, a partial term counts toward the limit of two consecutive terms.

Democratic nomineeJim Justice, ahotelier andcoal baron, won the open seat with a plurality of the vote, defeating Republican state senatorBill Cole and former state senatorCharlotte Pritt, who ran as a member of the Mountain Party. As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat was elected governor of West Virginia. Having switched parties in August 2017, Justice was re-elected as a Republican in2020; his party switch gave Republicans the governorship for the first time since 2001 and a trifecta in the state for the first time since 1931.[1]

Background

[edit]

In November 2010, Democratic governorJoe Manchin resigned after beingelected to the U.S. Senate. Earl Ray Tomblin, thepresident of theWest Virginia Senate (with the honorary title of lieutenant governor), became acting governor, won anOctober 2011 special election to complete the term, and won a full term in theregularly scheduled 2012 election. Tomblin was ineligible to run for re-election in 2016, as theConstitution of West Virginia limits governors to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they are full or partial terms. However, governors are re-eligible after four years out of office.[2][3]

After publicly speculating he would run for his former office, Manchin was considered a heavy favorite in the 2016 race, but he announced on April 19, 2015, that he would remain in the Senate instead.[4]

Democratic primary

[edit]
2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election Democratic primary
10 May 2016
Turnout258,350 votes
 
CandidateJim JusticeBooth GoodwinJeff Kessler
Popular vote132,70465,41660,230
Percentage51.39%25.32%23.31%
Results by county. Blue indicates a win by Justice, green a win by Goodwin, and yellow a win by Kessler.

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Justice		Booth
Goodwin		Jeff
Kessler		Undecided
MetroNews[18]April 22–May 2, 2016315± 4.0%32%27%23%18%
Public Policy Polling[19]April 29–May 1, 2016637± 3.9%37%23%19%21%
West Virginia Veterans[20]March 2–6, 2016600± 3.9%36%20%16%28%
MetroNews[21]February 11–16, 2016208± 4.9%32%25%23%21%
Global Strategy Group[22]^December 1–3, 2015350± 5.2%39%13%19%21%
  • ^ Indicates a poll taken for Jim Justice campaign.

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJim Justice132,70451.39%
DemocraticBooth Goodwin65,41625.32%
DemocraticJeff Kessler60,23023.31%
Total votes258,350100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Did not file

[edit]
  • Andrew Utterback, college student and candidate for mayor ofPineville in 2014[25]
  • Edwin Vanover, formerBramwell police chief and Democratic candidate for House of Delegates in 2012[25]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bill Cole

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Cole		David
McKinley		Patrick
Morrisey		Undecided
Harper Polling[44]April 9–11, 2015242± 6.3%15%31%25%29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBill Cole161,127100.00%
Total votes161,127100.00%

Mountain Party

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Charlotte Pritt, former Democratic state delegate, former Democratic state senator, write-in candidate for governor in1992 and Democratic nominee for governor in1996[45]

Endorsements

[edit]
Charlotte Pritt

Individuals

Organizations

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • David Moran, retired engineer and farmer[49]

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[50]TossupAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos[51]TossupNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[52]Tilt DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[54]Lean R(flip)November 1, 2016
Governing[55]TossupOctober 27, 2016

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Justice (D)		Bill
Cole (R)		Charlotte
Pritt (M)		David
Moran (L)		Phil
Hudok (C)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[56]November 1–7, 2016472± 4.6%36%45%13%——6%
SurveyMonkey[57]October 31–November 6, 2016443± 4.6%37%43%13%——7%
SurveyMonkey[58]October 28–November 3, 2016386± 4.6%40%42%12%——6%
SurveyMonkey[59]October 27–November 2, 2016330± 4.6%39%44%10%——7%
SurveyMonkey[60]October 26–November 1, 2016318± 4.6%42%41%12%——5%
SurveyMonkey[61]October 25–31, 2016321± 4.6%42%43%13%——2%
MetroNews[62]October 12–17, 2016408± 4.9%44%33%8%5%—9%
Global Strategy Group[63]October 11–13, 2016N/A± 4.0%44%34%8%2%—12%
NMB Research[64]October 8–10, 2016N/A± 4.4%39%39%5%2%1%12%
Garin-Hart-Yang[65]September 13–17, 2016500± 5.0%46%33%7%4%—10%
Just Win Strategies[66]→September 8–10, 2016600± 4.0%44%42%3%2%2%7%
R.L. Repass & Partners/MetroNews[67]August 9–28, 2016435± 4.7%46%32%8%5%—9%
Global Strategy Group[68]August 1–3, 2016419± 4.8%47%37%———15%
Public Policy Polling[19]April 29–May 1, 20161,201± 2.8%41%35%———24%
MetroNews[18]April 22–May 2, 2016596± 4.0%52%34%———14%
Orion Strategies[69]February 20–21, 2016306± 5.6%37%33%———30%
MetroNews[21]February 11–16, 2016411± 4.9%49%39%———12%
Orion Strategies[70]August 24–25, 2015406± 4.9%34%31%———35%

→ Indicates an internal poll conducted by theWest Virginia Republican Party for Bill Cole.

Hypothetical polling

with Booth Goodwin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Booth
Goodwin (D)		David
McKinley (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%35%40%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Booth
Goodwin (D)		Patrick
Morrisey (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%36%36%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Booth
Goodwin (D)		Bill
Cole (R)		OtherUndecided
MetroNews[18]April 22–May 2, 2016596± 4.0%47%39%—14%
Public Policy Polling[19]April 29–May 1, 20161,201± 2.8%33%39%—28%
Orion Strategies[69]February 20–21, 2016306± 5.6%33%36%—31%
MetroNews[21]February 11–16, 2016411± 4.9%43%44%—14%
Harper Polling[72]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%35%37%—27%

with Jeff Kessler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Kessler (D)		David
McKinley (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%32%42%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Kessler (D)		Patrick
Morrisey (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%35%38%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Kessler (D)		Bill
Cole (R)		OtherUndecided
MetroNews[18]April 22–May 2, 2016596± 4.0%45%39%—16%
Public Policy Polling[19]April 29–May 1, 20161,201± 2.8%30%40%—30%
Orion Strategies[69]February 20–21, 2016306± 5.6%30%40%—30%
MetroNews[21]February 11–16, 2016411± 4.9%40%45%—15%
Orion Strategies[70]August 24–25, 2015406± 4.9%26%37%—37%
Harper Polling[72]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%34%38%—28%

with Joe Manchin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Manchin (D)		Bill
Cole (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%54%32%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Manchin (D)		David
McKinley (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%52%35%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Manchin (D)		Patrick
Morrisey (R)		Undecided
Harper Polling[71]April 9–11, 2015702± 3.7%58%29%13%
Global Strategy Group*[73]March 15–18, 2015600± 4.0%60%30%10%
  • * Internal poll for Joe Manchin

Results

[edit]
West Virginia gubernatorial election, 2016[74]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJim Justice350,40849.09%−1.40%
RepublicanBill Cole301,98742.30%−3.35%
MountainCharlotte Pritt42,0685.89%+3.36%
LibertarianDavid Moran15,3542.15%+0.81%
ConstitutionPhil Hudok4,0410.57%N/A
Total votes713,858100.00%N/A
Democratichold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Justice won two of three congressional districts, which both elected Republicans.[75]

DistrictJusticeColePrittRepresentative
1st45.2%45.4%6%David McKinley
2nd48%43%7%Alex Mooney
3rd55%38%5%Evan Jenkins

Maps

[edit]
  • Support for Moran by county:   >10%   4–5%   3–4%   2–3%   1–2%   <1%
    Support for Moran by county:
      >10%
      4–5%
      3–4%
      2–3%
      1–2%
      <1%
  • Support for Pritt by county:   >11%   10–11%   8–9%   7–8%   6–7%   5–6%   4–5%   3–4%   <3%
    Support for Pritt by county:
      >11%
      10–11%
      8–9%
      7–8%
      6–7%
      5–6%
      4–5%
      3–4%
      <3%

References

[edit]
  1. ^Staff, WSAZ News (November 4, 2020)."Justice wins second term as W.Va. governor".www.wsaz.com. RetrievedJuly 8, 2023.
  2. ^abcMiller, Tom."2016 race for governor could be crowded".The Lincoln Journal. Archived fromthe original on February 22, 2014. RetrievedMarch 4, 2013.
  3. ^King, Joselyn (May 18, 2011)."Tomblin, Maloney win nominations".Wetzel Chronicle. RetrievedMarch 3, 2013.
  4. ^Ramsey, Pam (April 19, 2015)."Manchin says he'll stay in Senate, forgoes governor bid".The Journal. Archived fromthe original on April 27, 2015. RetrievedApril 19, 2015.
  5. ^"Ex-US attorney Goodwin files for W.Va. governor race".The Journal. January 4, 2016. Archived fromthe original on March 7, 2016. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2016.
  6. ^Eyre, Eric (May 11, 2015)."Greenbrier owner Jim Justice enters governor's race".The Charleston Gazette. RetrievedMay 11, 2015.
  7. ^Ebert, Joel (March 19, 2015)."Kessler says he'll run for governor in 2016".Charleston Daily Mail. RetrievedMarch 19, 2015.
  8. ^abc"Sunday Sit-Down: West Virginia GOP Chairman Conrad Lucas".The Intelligencer & Wheeling News Register. November 16, 2014. RetrievedNovember 18, 2014.
  9. ^Jenkins, Jeff (June 15, 2015)."Auditor Gainer planning re-election bid in 2016".West Virginia MetroNews. RetrievedJune 17, 2015.
  10. ^abcdefg"West Virginia Undergoing Political, Generational Change".Roll Call. May 1, 2014. RetrievedMay 1, 2014.
  11. ^"GOP Senate may run purple".Politico. RetrievedApril 15, 2014.
  12. ^"Manchin, 50-50 on Possible Return Run for Governor".West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 7, 2015. Archived fromthe original on April 12, 2015. RetrievedApril 8, 2015.
  13. ^Raju, Manu (April 14, 2015)."Joe Manchin signals stronger interest in West Virginia governor run".Politico. RetrievedApril 14, 2015.
  14. ^Eric Bradner (April 19, 2015)."Joe Manchin picks Senate over governor's bid".CNN. RetrievedApril 19, 2015.
  15. ^Aaron Blake (January 23, 2015)."The 5 best governors races in the country".The Washington Post. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2015.
  16. ^Jonathan Mattise (January 23, 2015)."Though @WaPost says otherwise, WV Treasurer John Perdue's office says he's not running for governor". Twitter. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2015.
  17. ^"W.Va. Secretary of State Files Early Re-Election Paperwork".West Virginia Public Broadcasting. March 19, 2015. Archived fromthe original on April 2, 2015. RetrievedMarch 20, 2015.
  18. ^abcdMetroNews
  19. ^abcdPublic Policy Polling
  20. ^West Virginia Veterans
  21. ^abcdMetroNews
  22. ^Global Strategy Group
  23. ^ab"Official 2016 Primary Election Results". West Virginia Secretary of State. RetrievedJuly 20, 2016.
  24. ^Johnson, Shauna (June 2, 2015)."Republican Bill Cole launches 2016 gubernatorial campaign".West Virginia MetroNews. RetrievedJune 4, 2015.
  25. ^abDeitz, Leah (May 15, 2015)."Jim Justice vying for Governor's Office".Mountain Messenger. RetrievedJune 17, 2015.
  26. ^Ebert, Joel (June 17, 2015)."Cole endorsed by Congressman Jenkins".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on June 22, 2015. RetrievedJune 17, 2015.
  27. ^Hicks, Ian (June 1, 2015)."McKinley Won't Run for Governor".The Intelligencer & Wheeling News Register. RetrievedJune 1, 2015.
  28. ^Johnson, Shauna (March 19, 2015)."Morrisey says he is considering a possible run for governor in 2016".West Virginia MetroNews. RetrievedMarch 20, 2015.
  29. ^"Morrisey has $850K for possible governor bid".The Journal. April 2, 2015. Archived fromthe original on April 5, 2015. RetrievedApril 2, 2015.
  30. ^Jenkins, Jeff (June 16, 2015)."Morrisey opts to seek reelection instead of governor's office".West Virginia MetroNews. RetrievedJune 17, 2015.
  31. ^abcde"WV House Delegation for Cole".Friends of Cole. October 8, 2015. Archived fromthe original on October 26, 2016. RetrievedOctober 26, 2016.
  32. ^"U.S. Sen. Capito backs Bill Cole in run for governor".WV MetroNews. April 11, 2016.
  33. ^"UPDATE: Charleston Mayor announces he's dropped Republican affiliation".wsaz.com. June 17, 2016.
  34. ^"NFIB endorses Bill Cole for Governor".WV MetroNews. July 18, 2016.
  35. ^"West Virginia Endorsements 2016".National Right to Life. October 15, 2016. Archived fromthe original on October 26, 2016. RetrievedOctober 26, 2016.
  36. ^"W.Va. Coal Association endorses Bill Cole for governor".Bluefield Daily Telegraph. February 13, 2016.
  37. ^"Endorsement: Republican Bill Cole, governor of W.Va".Bluefield Daily Telegraph. October 23, 2016.
  38. ^"Daily Mail endorsement: Experience makes Cole a better fit for governor".Charleston Gazette-Mail. October 25, 2016.
  39. ^"Cole will bring progress to West Virginia".Daily Times. October 17, 2016.
  40. ^"Elect Cole For Real Progress".The Intelligencer and Wheeling News Register. October 15, 2016.
  41. ^"Cole will deliver progress for W.Va".The Inter-Mountain. October 15, 2016.
  42. ^"Cole should be the next governor of West Virginia".The Journal. October 16, 2016.
  43. ^"Leadership: Bill Cole should be our next governor".The Parkersburg News and Sentinel. October 18, 2016.
  44. ^Harper PollingArchived 2015-07-09 at theWayback Machine
  45. ^"Mountain Party chooses Pritt as gubernatorial candidate".The Charleston Gazette. July 16, 2016. RetrievedJuly 16, 2016.
  46. ^"Back to the future: The return of Charlotte Pritt". July 20, 2016.
  47. ^"Charlotte Pritt: The Mountain Party's Maverick". November 4, 2016. Archived fromthe original on July 3, 2022. RetrievedMay 2, 2022.
  48. ^Sconyers, Jim (September 10, 2016)."West Virginia Sierra Club Endorses Pritt For Governor".Sierra Club. Archived fromthe original on June 25, 2017. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2016.
  49. ^Staff (April 2016)."WV Libertarians announce candidates for statewide offices".Charleston Gazette-Mail. RetrievedApril 14, 2016.
  50. ^"2016 Governor Race ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  51. ^"Elections 2015-16".Daily Kos. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  52. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  53. ^"Our Final 2016 picks".Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived fromthe original on October 15, 2018. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  54. ^"2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  55. ^"2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived fromthe original on October 27, 2016. RetrievedOctober 28, 2016.
  56. ^SurveyMonkey
  57. ^SurveyMonkey
  58. ^SurveyMonkey
  59. ^SurveyMonkey
  60. ^SurveyMonkey
  61. ^SurveyMonkey
  62. ^MetroNews
  63. ^Global Strategy Group
  64. ^NMB Research
  65. ^Garin-Hart-Yang
  66. ^Just Win Strategies
  67. ^R.L. Repass & Partners/MetroNews
  68. ^Global Strategy Group
  69. ^abcOrion Strategies
  70. ^abOrion Strategies
  71. ^abcdefgHarper PollingArchived 2015-04-14 at theWayback Machine
  72. ^abHarper Polling
  73. ^Global Strategy Group*
  74. ^"Statewide Results General Election November 8, 2016".West Virginia Secretary of State. State of West Virginia. Archived fromthe original on 25 December 2016. Retrieved28 December 2016.
  75. ^"Our Campaigns - WV Governor Race - Nov 08, 2016".www.ourcampaigns.com. RetrievedAugust 19, 2024.

External links

[edit]

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