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16 pledged delegates to the2016 Republican National Convention | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests duringSuper Tuesday.
Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, withJohn Kasich andMarco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote.[1] However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count. Vermont was one of only three states, along with his native Ohio and neighboring Michigan, where Kasich won a county.
This was the only GOP primary contest that Trump won in 2016 that he would lose in2024, by 4 points toNikki Haley.
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results[2] | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump32.34% | John Kasich30.01% | Marco Rubio19.08% | Ted Cruz 9.61%,Ben Carson 4.13%,Jeb Bush 1.79%,Rand Paul 0.68%,Chris Christie 0.58%,Carly Fiorina 0.34%,Rick Santorum 0.27% |
| Castleton University/Vermont Public Radio[3] Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118 | February 3–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32.4% | Marco Rubio 16.9% | Ted Cruz 10.5% | John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1% |
| Candidate | Vote[4] | Delegates[5] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | ||
| Donald Trump | 19,974 | 32.52 | 8 |
| John Kasich | 18,534 | 30.17 | 8 |
| Marco Rubio | 11,781 | 19.18 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 5,932 | 9.66 | 0 |
| Ben Carson | 2,551 | 4.15 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush(withdrawn) | 1,106 | 1.80 | 0 |
| Rand Paul(withdrawn) | 423 | 0.69 | 0 |
| Chris Christie(withdrawn) | 361 | 0.59 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina(withdrawn) | 212 | 0.35 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum(withdrawn) | 164 | 0.27 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 390 | 0.63 | 0 |
| Total valid votes | 61,428 | 100% | 16 |
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.
Vermont's voter base is much moremoderate andirreligious than theSouthernSuper Tuesday contests.[6]Exit polls byEdison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhatconservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich wonmoderates with 40% to Trump's 34%.[7] Kasich did particularly well in the populousBurlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.
Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with2012, as some registered Republicanscrossed over to vote forfavorite sonBernie Sanders in theDemocratic primary.
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