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2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

← 2012November 8, 20162020 →
Turnout71.31%
 
NomineeDonald TrumpHillary Clinton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateMike PenceTim Kaine
Electoral vote200
Popular vote2,970,7332,926,441
Percentage48.18%47.46%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Pennsylvania
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
Government
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and theDistrict of Columbia participated.Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote.

On April 26, 2016, in thepresidential primaries, voters selected theDemocratic,Republican, andGreen parties' respective nominees for president. Pennsylvania is aclosed primary state, meaning voters must have been previously registered with a particular political party in order to vote for one of that parties' candidates, to participate in their respective party primary.[1]

In the general election,Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election since1840, whenWilliam Henry Harrison defeatedMartin Van Buren by just 0.12%. Pennsylvania voted 2.82% more Republican than the nation-at-large, marking the first time since1948 that it voted to the right of the nation.

Before the election, Pennsylvania was expected to be close as polling showed the results within the margin of error, but many election experts viewed that Clinton had an edge.[2][3] However, on Election Day, Pennsylvania unexpectedly swung to Donald Trump. Trump carried 56 of the state's 67 counties, predominantly rural or suburban counties, while Clinton carried much of thePhiladelphia metropolitan area as well as other cities includingPittsburgh,Harrisburg andScranton. Nonetheless, some areas of traditional Democratic strength such asLuzerne County, whereWilkes-Barre is located, saw swings in margins of up to 25% toward Donald Trump.

Trump was the first Republican nominee for president to win the state of Pennsylvania sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988. Later in2024, Trump also became the first Republican to win a majority of the vote in the state since Bush in 1988.

Primaries

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
Results of the Democratic primary by county
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton935,10755.61%10620126
Bernie Sanders731,88143.53%83083
Rocky De La Fuente14,4390.86%000
Total1,681,427100%18920209
Source:[4][5]

Republican primary

[edit]
Republican primary results by county
  Donald Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 26, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump902,59356.61%174259
Ted Cruz345,50621.67%044
John Kasich310,00319.44%033
Ben Carson(withdrawn)14,8420.93%000
Marco Rubio(withdrawn)11,9540.75%000
Jeb Bush(withdrawn)9,5770.60%000
Unprojected delegates:055
Total:1,594,475100.00%175471
Source:The Green Papers

Green Party

[edit]

Pennsylvania held a series of caucuses throughout April, culminating with a meeting on April 30 inHarrisburg, Pennsylvania, where delegates were assigned.[6][7]

Pennsylvania Green Party presidential caucuses, April 17, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
Jill Stein--8
William Kreml--1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry---
Darryl Cherney---
Kent Mesplay---
Total-100.00%9

Democratic National Convention

[edit]

From July 25 to July 28, 2016, Philadelphia hosted the2016 Democratic National Convention. It was held at theWells Fargo Center with ancillary meetings at thePennsylvania Convention Center. FormerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 59.67% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call, winning the nomination, while runner-up rival SenatorBernie Sanders received 39.16% of votes from delegates. Clinton then became the first female candidate to be formally nominated by amajor national party as a presidential candidate in the United States. Her running mate, SenatorTim Kaine, thejuniorUnited States senator fromVirginia, was chosen by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president byacclamation.

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
CNN[8]Lean DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[9]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[10]Lean DNovember 6, 2016
NBC[11]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12]TossupNovember 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13]Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Lean DNovember 7, 2016

Results

[edit]
2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican2,970,73348.18
Democratic2,926,44147.46
Libertarian146,7152.38
Green49,9410.81
Constitution
21,5720.35
Independent6,4720.10
IndependentBernie Sanders (write-in)6,0600.10
RepublicanJohn Kasich (write-in)3020.00
Independent
30.00
Write-in37,2390.60
Total votes6,165,478100%
Republicanwin

By county

[edit]
County[17]Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Darrell Castle
Constitution
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adams31,42365.48%14,21929.63%1,2512.61%4050.84%1910.40%5011.04%17,20435.85%47,990
Allegheny259,48039.48%367,61755.94%16,1022.45%5,0970.78%1,8180.28%7,0751.08%-108,137-16.46%657,189
Armstrong23,48473.70%7,17822.53%6852.15%1410.44%1300.41%2460.77%16,30651.17%31,864
Beaver48,16757.03%32,53138.52%2,0222.39%4960.59%3550.42%8911.05%15,63618.51%84,462
Bedford19,55282.59%3,64515.40%2601.10%1020.43%780.33%380.16%15,90767.19%23,675
Berks96,62652.49%78,43742.61%5,2472.85%1,9741.07%7810.42%1,0200.55%18,1899.88%184,085
Blair39,13570.72%13,95825.22%1,2562.27%3380.61%2220.40%4320.79%25,17745.50%55,341
Bradford18,14169.81%6,36924.51%8933.44%1370.53%1680.65%2781.07%11,77245.30%25,986
Bucks164,36147.64%167,06048.42%8,5562.48%3,1210.90%1,1990.35%7450.22%-2,699-0.78%345,042
Butler64,43165.71%28,58629.15%3,0643.12%6150.63%3820.39%9730.99%35,84536.56%98,051
Cambria42,25866.45%18,86729.67%1,2702.00%4130.65%2640.42%5170.81%23,39136.78%63,589
Cameron1,58971.90%53124.03%532.40%60.27%70.32%241.09%1,05847.87%2,210
Carbon18,74364.65%8,93630.82%6912.38%2650.91%1410.49%2170.75%9,80733.83%28,993
Centre35,27445.63%37,08847.97%2,6443.42%7981.03%3440.44%1,1590.94%-1,814-2.34%77,307
Chester116,11442.53%141,68251.90%7,9302.90%2,2470.82%8270.30%4,1981.54%-25,568-9.37%272,998
Clarion12,57671.21%4,27324.20%4692.66%1150.65%1020.58%1250.71%8,30347.01%17,660
Clearfield24,93272.16%8,20023.73%7762.25%2200.64%1430.41%2790.81%16,73248.43%34,550
Clinton10,02264.64%4,74430.60%4703.03%1210.78%370.24%1110.71%5,27834.04%15,505
Columbia18,00463.16%8,93431.34%8833.10%2650.93%1420.50%2780.97%9,07031.82%28,506
Crawford24,98766.08%10,97129.01%1,0462.77%2710.72%2170.57%3210.85%14,01637.07%37,813
Cumberland69,07655.94%47,08538.13%3,9753.22%9390.76%5420.44%1,8691.51%21,99117.81%123,486
Dauphin60,86346.18%64,70649.10%3,4982.65%1,1770.89%6280.48%9110.69%-3,843-2.92%131,783
Delaware110,66736.97%177,40259.27%5,9922.00%2,5880.86%9850.33%1,7020.57%-66,735-22.30%299,336
Elk10,02568.91%3,85326.49%4012.76%790.54%680.47%1210.83%6,17242.42%14,547
Erie60,06948.01%58,11246.44%3,8713.09%1,1390.91%4880.39%1,4501.16%1,9571.57%125,129
Fayette34,59063.94%17,94633.17%8531.58%2320.43%1460.27%3320.61%16,64430.77%54,099
Forest1,68469.59%62625.87%602.48%190.79%130.54%180.74%1,05843.72%2,420
Franklin49,76870.59%17,46524.77%1,7122.43%4500.64%3360.48%7751.10%32,30345.82%70,506
Fulton5,69483.47%91213.37%931.36%370.54%350.51%510.75%4,78270.10%6,822
Greene10,84968.37%4,48228.25%2841.79%830.52%660.42%1040.66%6,36740.12%15,868
Huntingdon14,49472.96%4,53922.85%4252.14%960.48%1520.77%1600.81%9,95550.11%19,866
Indiana24,88865.29%11,52830.24%9362.46%2200.58%1980.52%3520.92%13,36035.05%38,122
Jefferson15,19277.53%3,65018.63%4322.20%1100.56%940.48%1170.60%11,54258.90%19,595
Juniata8,27378.45%1,82117.27%2011.91%710.67%880.83%910.86%6,45261.18%10,545
Lackawanna48,38446.34%51,98349.79%1,9351.85%8960.86%2580.25%9480.91%-3,599-3.45%104,404
Lancaster137,91456.33%91,09337.21%8,5553.49%2,0210.83%1,5290.62%3,7201.52%46,82119.12%244,832
Lawrence25,42861.90%14,00934.11%8702.12%2480.60%1980.48%3230.79%11,41927.79%41,076
Lebanon40,52564.84%18,95330.32%1,6472.64%4220.68%2980.48%6581.05%21,57234.52%62,503
Lehigh73,69045.28%81,32449.97%4,0272.47%1,4020.86%5500.34%1,7401.07%-7,634-4.69%162,733
Luzerne78,68857.90%52,45138.60%2,3391.72%1,1780.87%3270.24%9180.68%26,23719.30%135,901
Lycoming35,62769.68%13,02025.46%1,3112.56%3840.75%2230.44%5661.11%22,60744.22%51,131
McKean11,63570.67%4,02524.45%4082.48%1510.92%770.47%1681.02%7,61046.22%16,464
Mercer31,54459.70%18,73335.45%1,3702.59%4150.79%2470.47%5301.00%12,81124.25%52,839
Mifflin14,09475.28%3,87720.71%4762.54%800.43%740.40%1200.64%10,21754.57%18,721
Monroe33,38647.69%33,91848.45%1,5022.15%7581.08%1880.27%2560.36%-532-0.76%70,008
Montgomery162,73137.10%256,08258.38%10,9342.49%3,7040.84%1,2360.28%3,9650.90%-93,351-21.28%438,652
Montour5,28861.80%2,85733.39%2873.35%730.85%510.60%00.00%2,43128.41%8,556
Northampton71,73649.62%66,27545.84%3,6902.55%1,3710.95%4500.31%1,0470.72%5,4613.78%144,569
Northumberland25,42768.89%9,78826.52%9312.52%2960.80%1800.49%2850.77%15,63942.37%36,907
Perry15,61673.07%4,63221.67%6192.90%1630.76%1280.60%2131.00%10,98451.40%21,371
Philadelphia108,74815.32%584,02582.30%7,1151.00%6,6790.94%1,0640.15%1,9870.28%-475,277-66.98%709,618
Pike16,06161.06%9,26835.24%4941.88%2260.86%710.27%1830.70%6,79325.82%26,303
Potter6,25179.49%1,30216.56%1652.10%350.45%310.39%801.01%4,94962.93%7,864
Schuylkill44,00169.42%16,77026.46%1,4142.23%4490.71%2350.37%5160.81%27,23142.96%63,385
Snyder11,72571.12%4,00224.28%4552.76%1110.67%700.42%1230.75%7,72346.84%16,486
Somerset27,37975.90%7,37620.45%6781.88%1660.46%1740.48%3000.83%20,00355.45%36,073
Sullivan2,29172.68%75023.79%652.06%140.44%160.51%160.51%1,54148.89%3,152
Susquehanna12,89167.69%5,12326.90%5682.98%1921.01%890.47%1800.95%7,76840.79%19,043
Tioga13,61473.56%3,90121.08%5482.96%1390.75%1230.66%1820.98%9,71352.48%18,507
Union10,62260.02%6,18034.92%4502.54%1430.81%730.41%2281.29%4,44225.43%17,696
Venango16,02168.09%6,30926.81%7333.12%1490.63%1360.58%1820.77%9,71241.28%23,530
Warren12,47767.06%5,14527.65%5492.95%1300.70%1330.71%1720.92%7,33239.41%18,606
Washington61,38660.03%36,32235.52%2,6432.58%7330.72%3660.36%8170.80%25,06424.51%102,267
Wayne16,24467.63%7,00829.18%4661.94%2060.86%940.39%00.00%9,23638.45%24,018
Westmoreland116,52263.50%59,66932.52%4,3672.38%9360.51%5570.30%1,4410.79%56,85330.98%183,492
Wyoming8,83766.63%3,81128.74%3232.44%1160.87%570.43%1180.89%5,02637.89%13,262
York128,52861.78%68,52432.94%6,4843.12%1,5680.75%8820.42%2,0430.98%60,00428.84%208,029
Totals2,970,74248.17%2,926,45847.45%146,7192.38%49,9410.81%21,5720.35%51,5060.83%44,2840.72%6,166,938
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +>15%
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +>15%
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including one which elected a Democrat, while Clinton won six, including two that elected a Republican.[18]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
118%80%Bob Brady
28%90%Chaka Fattah
Dwight Evans
361%35%Mike Kelly
459%37%Scott Perry
562%34%Glenn Thompson
648%48%Ryan Costello
747%49%Patrick Meehan
848%48%Mike Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
970%27%Bill Shuster
1066%30%Tom Marino
1160%36%Lou Barletta
1259%38%Keith Rothfus
1332%65%Brendan Boyle
1431%66%Mike Doyle
1552%44%Charlie Dent
1651%44%Joe Pitts
Lloyd Smucker
1753%43%Matt Cartwright
1858%39%Tim Murphy

Analysis

[edit]
A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States

2016 is the only presidential race since1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the national popular vote without Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that ofWisconsin andMichigan, marked the fall of the DemocraticBlue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice forBill Clinton in1992 and1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they knew that they had lost the election.[19] While political analysts generally agree that Clinton met her turnout targets for Democratic voters, especially among the key counties of Bucks and Montgomery, Republican voter turnout was unexpectedly high in 2016, leading to a Trump win regardless of the Clinton campaign hitting their targets.[20]

Except for the most college-educated counties in the state (see the map), Trump made massive gains. Chester andMontgomery counties swung significantly leftward, while Centre County (home toPennsylvania State University) swung slightly leftward.Philadelphia County itself swung slightly rightward, though Clinton still won over 80% of the vote there. This prevented Clinton from winning the state, but it did keep Trump’s margin of victory below 1%.

Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carryingChester orDauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carryingCentre County sinceBenjamin Harrison in1888, and the first to do so without carryingMonroe County sinceCalvin Coolidge in1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties. Trump was the first Republican nominee for president to win Luzerne and Northampton counties since1988. He was the first Republican to win Erie County since 1984. As of the 2024 presidential race, 2016 was the first time since 1996 that neither major party won a majority of the vote in Pennsylvania.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"About Voting and Elections". Votespa.com. May 19, 2015. Archived fromthe original on April 8, 2016. RetrievedApril 10, 2016.
  2. ^"Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". realclearpolitics.com. November 5, 2016.
  3. ^"Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump's Winning Map Is Unclear".The New York Times. November 6, 2016. RetrievedOctober 30, 2018.The final nonpartisan live interview polls there show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it's quite clear that she has the edge.
  4. ^The Green Papers
  5. ^Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results
  6. ^"2016 PA Green Party Caucus Information and Schedule". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. RetrievedApril 10, 2016.
  7. ^"#Greens, join us in caucusing and voting for our GP of PA Presidential Candidates in April". Pennsylvania Green Party. April 9, 2016. RetrievedApril 10, 2016.
  8. ^Chalian, David (November 4, 2016)."Road to 270: CNN's new election map".CNN. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  9. ^"2016 Electoral Scorecard".The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived fromthe original on February 7, 2019. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  10. ^"2016 Predicted Electoral Map".Electoral-vote.com. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  11. ^Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016)."NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton".NBC News. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  12. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  13. ^"Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  14. ^Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016)."The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings".University of Virginia Center for Politics. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  15. ^Federal Election Commission (December 2017)."Federal Elections 2016"(PDF). p. 39. RetrievedNovember 13, 2021.
  16. ^"Kathleen Monahan".Ballotpedia. RetrievedNovember 13, 2021.
  17. ^"2016 Presidential General Election Results - Pennsylvania".
  18. ^"Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index".The Cook Political Report.
  19. ^Burstein, Nanette (Director) (March 6, 2020).Episode 4 - Be Our Champion, Go Away (Documentary).Hillary. Hulu.
  20. ^Sides, John.Campaign and Elections, Fourth Edition (Fourth ed.). W.W. Norton and Company. p. 132.

Further reading

[edit]

External links

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