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2016 United States presidential election in Oregon

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2016 United States presidential election
2016United States presidential election in Oregon

← 2012
November 8, 2016
2020 →
Turnout70.26% (eligible voters)Increase[1][2]
 
NomineeHillary ClintonDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateTim KaineMike Pence
Electoral vote70
Popular vote1,002,106782,403
Percentage50.07%39.09%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes
Treemap of the popular vote by county
Elections in Oregon
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2004
2008
2012
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U.S. Senate elections
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List of Oregon ballot measures

The2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

The Democratic presidential candidate has won Oregon in every election since1988. Clinton continued this tradition, carrying the state with 50% of the vote, a slightly reduced margin fromBarack Obama in2012, but with a slightly higher raw vote total, becoming only the second presidential candidate to win more than a million votes in the process. Trump received 39% of the vote, a smaller proportion of the vote compared to that ofMitt Romney in 2012. However, he did achieve a notable feat in carryingColumbia County, becoming the first Republican to do so sinceHerbert Hoover in1928.[4] In addition, this was also the first presidential election since1976 in whichClackamas County backed the losing candidate, with Trump becoming the first Republican ever to win theWhite House without carrying the county.

Primaries and Caucuses

[edit]

Oregon held its presidential primaries on May 17, 2016.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Oregon Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

The 74 delegates from Oregon were allocated in this way. 41 delegates were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district withdistrict 2 split (district 2 was split because of its size with district 2a including the northern part of the district and 2b containing the southern part of the district). Another 20 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. The state also had 13super delegates.[5]

Oregon Democratic primary, May 17, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders360,82956.24%36339
Hillary Clinton269,84642.06%25732
Misc.10,9201.70%000
(available)N/a033
Total641,595100%611374
Source:[6][7]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Oregon Republican presidential primary

Six candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

The 28 delegates from Oregon were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote.[8]

Oregon Republican primary, May 17, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump252,74864.16%18018
Ted Cruz(withdrawn)65,51316.63%505
John Kasich(withdrawn)62,24815.80%505
Write-in13,4113.40%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:393,920100.00%28028
Source:The Green Papers

Green primary

[edit]

This state's Green Party held its presidential preference vote on May 21.

On May 22, it was announced thatJill Stein had won the preference vote.[9]

Oregon Green Party presidential convention, April 17, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
Jill Stein--6
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry--1
Uncommitted--1
Total--8

Libertarian primary

[edit]

The Oregon primary was completed on May 27, 2016, the last day to receive mail-in ballots.

Oregon Libertarian presidential primary, May 27, 2016[10][11]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Gary Johnson42257%
John McAfee10514%
Merry Susan Nehls345%
Austin Petersen (write-in)253%
Darryl Perry213%
Keenan Dunham182%
Derrick Michael Reid101%
Rhett Smith61%
NOTA (write-in)20%
Other write-ins9112%
Total742100%

Independent Party of Oregon primary

[edit]

TheIndependent Party held a primary election on July 18. The party's ballot included Bernie Sanders (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Donald Trump (R), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), Gary Johnson (L), Jill Stein (G) and a "none of these candidates" choice.[12] Bernie Sanders won the primary election with 31.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating Donald Trump's 30.08%. Hillary Clinton came in third, with 24.02% of the vote. Members were allowed to select one or more candidates.[13]

Independent Party Presidential Ballot, July 18, 2016
CandidatePartyPercentage
Bernie SandersDemocrat31.5%
Donald TrumpRepublican30.08%
Hillary ClintonDemocrat24.02%
None of the aboveN/A9.17%
Gary JohnsonLibertarian16.07%
Jill SteinGreen9.49%
Ted CruzRepublican5.68%
John KasichRepublican12.27%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times[14]Safe DNovember 6, 2016
CNN[15]Safe DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[16]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[17]Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[18]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[20]Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Fox News[21]Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Voting history

[edit]
Main article:Political party strength in Oregon

BesidesLyndon Johnson's landslide victory in1964, the Republican party's candidate won Oregon in every year from1948 through1984. Since then, however, the Democratic candidate has carried the state in every election, including a narrow victory in the2000 election. The last statewide election won by a Republican candidate was in the2002 Senate election, all statewide elected officials as of election day were Democrats, andBarack Obama defeatedMitt Romney by 12.09% in the2012 election. Generally, Eastern Oregon is more conservative, while Western Oregon is more liberal.

Polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Oregon

Democrat Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted in the state except one and led by margins of 7 to 13 points in most polls. The average of the final 3 polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 44% to 36%.[22]

Results

[edit]
2016 U.S. presidential election in Oregon[23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHillary Clinton1,002,10650.07%
RepublicanDonald Trump782,40339.09%
LibertarianGary Johnson94,2314.71%
Pacific Green Party/ProgressiveJill Stein50,0022.50%
write-ins72,5943.63%
Total votes2,001,336100.00%

Hillary Clinton carried the state, lengthening theDemocratic streak in Oregon to 8 straight contests.

By county

[edit]
CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Baker1,79720.47%6,21870.83%7648.70%-4,421-50.36%8,779
Benton29,19359.88%13,44527.58%6,11512.54%15,74832.30%48,753
Clackamas102,09547.70%88,39241.30%23,55211.00%20,7036.40%214,039
Clatsop9,25247.05%8,13841.39%2,27411.56%1,1145.66%19,664
Columbia10,16738.20%13,21749.65%3,23412.15%-3,050-11.45%26,618
Coos10,44833.37%17,86557.05%3,0009.58%-7,417-23.68%31,313
Crook2,63721.66%8,51169.92%1,0248.42%-5,874-48.26%12,172
Curry4,30034.10%7,21257.19%1,0998.71%-2,912-23.09%12,611
Deschutes42,44443.07%45,69246.36%10,42110.57%-3,248-3.29%98,557
Douglas14,09626.34%34,58264.61%4,8439.05%-20,486-38.27%53,521
Gilliam23923.45%67165.85%10910.70%-432-42.40%1,019
Grant73917.03%3,21073.96%3919.01%-2,471-56.93%4,340
Harney68317.19%2,91273.28%3799.53%-2,229-56.09%3,974
Hood River6,51059.67%3,27229.99%1,12810.34%3,23829.68%10,910
Jackson44,44740.66%53,87049.27%11,01010.07%-9,423-8.61%109,327
Jefferson2,98031.50%5,48357.97%99610.53%-2,503-26.47%9,459
Josephine13,45330.19%26,92360.42%4,1849.39%-13,470-30.23%44,560
Klamath7,21023.63%20,43566.98%2,8629.39%-13,225-43.35%30,507
Lake63916.26%3,02276.90%2696.84%-2,383-60.64%3,930
Lane102,75353.53%67,14134.98%22,05611.49%35,61218.55%191,950
Lincoln12,50149.50%10,03939.75%2,71610.75%2,4629.75%25,256
Linn17,99530.65%33,48857.03%7,23612.32%-15,493-26.38%58,719
Malheur2,24621.52%7,19468.94%9959.54%-4,948-47.42%10,435
Marion57,78842.23%63,37746.31%15,67511.46%-5,589-4.08%136,840
Morrow1,01724.41%2,72165.30%42910.29%-1,704-40.89%4,167
Multnomah292,56173.30%67,95417.03%38,5889.67%224,60756.27%399,103
Polk16,42040.75%18,94047.00%4,93512.25%-2,520-6.25%40,295
Sherman20219.86%73271.98%838.16%-530-52.12%1,017
Tillamook5,76841.79%6,53847.37%1,49710.84%-770-5.58%13,803
Umatilla7,67327.80%17,05961.81%2,86510.39%-9,386-34.01%27,597
Union3,24925.05%8,43165.01%1,2889.94%-5,182-39.96%12,968
Wallowa1,11625.56%2,84865.23%4029.21%-1,732-39.67%4,366
Wasco4,78139.96%5,83348.75%1,35011.29%-1,052-8.79%11,964
Washington153,25156.92%83,19730.90%32,78412.18%70,05426.02%269,232
Wheeler15518.95%59172.25%728.80%-436-53.30%818
Yamhill19,30139.59%23,25047.69%6,20212.72%-3,949-8.10%48,753
Total1,002,10650.07%782,40339.09%216,82710.84%219,70310.98%2,001,336
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Clinton won four of five congressional districts.[24]

DistrictClintonTrumpRepresentative
1st55%33%Suzanne Bonamici
2nd35%55%Greg Walden
3rd68%22%Earl Blumenauer
4th45%44%Peter DeFazio
5th46%42%Kurt Schrader

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Oregon State Elections Division (2016)."[PARTICIPATION] STATISTICAL SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 8, 2016, GENERAL ELECTION". Oregon Secretary of State. RetrievedOctober 3, 2018.
  2. ^Betsy Hammond (December 12, 2016)."Oregon voters shattered previous participation rates in November 2016". The Oregonian. RetrievedOctober 3, 2018.
  3. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. RetrievedDecember 24, 2020.
  4. ^Sullivan, Robert David;‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’;America Magazine inThe National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  5. ^"Oregon Democratic Delegation 2016".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2017.
  6. ^The Green Papers
  7. ^Oregon Secretary of State - Official Election Results
  8. ^"Oregon Republican Delegation 2016".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2017.
  9. ^"Stein wins six Oregon delegates, Moyowasifza-Curry one – Green Party Watch". Archived from the original on May 23, 2016. RetrievedJune 18, 2016.
  10. ^"2016 Election Rules". The Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived fromthe original on 27 March 2016. Retrieved19 March 2016.
  11. ^"Oregon Libertarian Primary Raw Results". Independent Political Report. June 8, 2016. RetrievedJune 8, 2016.
  12. ^"Independent Party of Oregon". RetrievedJuly 23, 2016.
  13. ^"2016 IPO PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT & MEMBER SURVEY RESULTS (UNOFFICIAL)"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on August 4, 2016. RetrievedJuly 31, 2016.
  14. ^"Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours".Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  15. ^Chalian, David (November 4, 2016)."Road to 270: CNN's new election map".CNN. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  16. ^"2016 Electoral Scorecard".The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived fromthe original on March 1, 2019. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  17. ^"2016 Electoral Map Prediction".Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  18. ^"Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  19. ^Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016)."2016 President".University of Virginia Center for Politics. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  20. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  21. ^"Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge".Fox News. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  22. ^"RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Oregon: Trump vs. Clinton".
  23. ^"November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes".Oregon Secretary of State. RetrievedDecember 9, 2016.
  24. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d0da4067-8219-48b6-9403-6bb5782d2dba

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