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2016 United States Senate election in Florida

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 United States Senate election in Florida

← 2010November 8, 20162022 →
 
NomineeMarco RubioPatrick Murphy
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote4,835,1914,122,088
Percentage51.98%44.31%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Rubio:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Murphy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

This article is part of
a series about
Marco Rubio

Florida House of Representatives






Elections in Florida
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The2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2016 to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the State ofFlorida, concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election,other elections to the United States Senate in other states,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.[1]

IncumbentRepublican SenatorMarco Rubio ran for another term, but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016.[2][3][4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.[5]

However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he wasrunning for president and would not seek re-election.[6][7][8][9] He had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of theGOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016.[10][11]

On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day'smass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country."[12] On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run.[13]

On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated RepresentativePatrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history (until Donald Trump broke the record in 2020), taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nomineeDonald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the firstRepublicanSenator from Florida since1994, and only the second withConnie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also,Mel Martinez's victory in2004 marks the first time that Republicans had won one of Florida'sSenate seats three times in a row (Mack succeededLawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat,Bill Nelson).

Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, at the time considered an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year.[14] Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up untilTexasSenator John Cornyn broke it in2020.

Rubio would later win by a larger 16.4% margin in2022, including winning a majority of Hispanic voters in Florida.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ron DeSantis (withdrew)

Individuals

Organizations

David Jolly (withdrew)

Individuals

Carlos López-Cantera (withdrew)

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors and other municipal leaders

Marco Rubio

Presidents of the United States

Governors

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Statewide officials

Newspaper editorial boards

Declined to endorse

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff
Ron
DeSantis
David
Jolly
Ilya
Katz
Carlos
López-Cantera
Marco
Rubio
Todd
Wilcox
Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[123]August 22–24, 2016400± 5%22%61%15%
Florida Atlantic University[124]August 19–22, 2016327± 5.4%8%69%5%15%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[125]August 17–22, 2016249± 4.0%19%68%10%
St. Leo University[126]August 14–18, 2016479± 4.5%14%68%18%
Suffolk University[127]August 1–3, 2016183± 4.4%12%62%26%
St. Pete Polls[128]August 2, 20161,835± 2.3%22%55%23%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[129]June 25–27, 2016555± 4.1%11%63%13%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[130]June 19–20, 2016487± 4.4%5%57%4%34%
St. Leo University[131]June 10–16, 2016500± 7%4%5%4%1%3%52%2%27%
8%8%8%2%9%5%57%
Mason-Dixon[132]May 31–June 2, 2016400± 5%17%10%13%9%2%49%
News 13/Bay News 9[133]March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%1%11%18%4%9%7%50%
Washington Post/Univision[134]March 2–5, 2016450± 5.5%0%6%5%6%2%81%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 2016464± 4.6%14%26%11%2%47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business[136]January 15–18, 2016345± 5.2%8%28%8%57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog[137]December 14–15, 20152,694± 1.9%18%21%10%8%44%
St. Leo University[138]November 29 – December 3, 2015147± 8%6%12%4%8%7%63%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015377± 5.1%15%18%14%52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Vern
Buchanan
Ben
Carson
Ron
DeSantis
Don
Gaetz
David
Jolly
George
LeMieux
Carlos
López-Cantera
Bill
McCollum
Jeff
Miller
Tom
Rooney
Todd
Wilcox
Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9[133]March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%56%44%
Mason-Dixon[140]July 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%8%11%7%22%6%1%45%
9%16%10%8%2%55%
St. Pete Polls[141]July 15, 20151,074± 3.0%9%22%11%12%46%
Gravis Marketing[142]June 16—20, 2015729± 3.6%16%7%25%6%46%
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015425± 4.5%6%4%6%3%7%16%8%43%
Mason-Dixon[144]Apr. 14–16, 2015425± 4.8%7%4%1%8%3%4%20%5%48%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Atwater
Pam
Bondi
Carlos
López-Cantera
Adam
Putnam
Allen
West
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015425± 4.8%12%25%8%38%18%
41%15%43%
Gravis Marketing[146]February 24–25, 2015513± 4%9%36%12%43%
Public Policy Polling[147]September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%17%38%16%29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[148]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMarco Rubio (incumbent)1,029,83071.99%
RepublicanCarlos Beruff264,42718.49%
RepublicanDwight Young91,0826.37%
RepublicanErnie Rivera45,1533.16%
Total votes1,430,492100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in2014 (running as an Independent)[155][156]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Alan Grayson

Politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Pam Keith

Newspaper editorial boards

Patrick Murphy

Presidents

Vice presidents

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors and other municipal leaders

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspaper editorial boards

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Alan
Grayson
Pam
Keith
Lateresa
Jones
Patrick
Murphy
Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[123]August 22–24, 2016400± 5%22%4%55%19%
Florida Atlantic University[124]August 19–22, 20163648%7%54%22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[125]August 17–22, 2016258± 4.0%11%40%38%
St. Leo University[126]August 14–18, 2016532± 4.5%17%8%48%27%
Suffolk University[127]August 1–3, 2016194± 4.4%17%2%36%45%
St. Pete Polls[216]August 2, 20161,807± 2.3%20%7%45%28%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[129]June 25–27, 2016618± 4.0%21%10%30%35%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[217]June 19–20, 2016530± 4.3%15%5%19%62%
Targeted Persuasion[218]June 14–16, 2016862± 3.34%30%5%27%38%
St. Leo University[131]June 10–16, 2016500± 7%14%3%4%16%61%
Mason-Dixon[132]May 31–June 2, 2016400± 5%23%3%31%43%
Public Policy Polling[219]March 22–23, 2016829?33%32%35%
St. Leo University[220]March 13–17, 2016540± 5%17%20%63%
Mason-Dixon[221]March 7–9, 2016500± 4.5%19%33%48%
SurveyUSA[222]March 4–6, 2016592± 4.1%16%11%27%46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group[223]March 2–5, 2016449± 6%19%27%54%
Univision[224]March 2–5, 2016449± 6%29%36%35%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 2016388± 5%33%22%45%
20/20 Insight LLC*[225]~February 16–18, 2016646± 3.9%41%32%27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business[136]January 15–18, 2016371± 5%27%20%53%
St. Leo University[138]November 29–December 3, 2015160± 7.5%7%4%6%17%55%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015368± 5.1%33%27%39%
Mason-Dixon[140]July 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%24%26%50%
33%32%35%
St. Pete Polls[226]July 15, 20151,018± 3.1%30%8%23%39%
Gravis Marketing[142]June 16–20, 2015881± 3.3%63%19%18%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[227]June 15–17, 2015717± 3.7%24%34%42%
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%24%27%49%
Mason-Dixon[228]April 14–16, 2015400± 5%14%23%63%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015371± 5.1%22%21%56%
* Internal poll for Alan Grayson

Results

[edit]
County results
Democratic primary results[148]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticPatrick Murphy665,98558.92%
DemocraticAlan Grayson199,92917.72%
DemocraticPam Keith173,91915.40%
DemocraticRocky De La Fuente60,8105.38%
DemocraticReginald Luster29,1382.58%
Total votes1,129,781100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

On October 1, 2015,Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of theLibertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defendedeugenics, called for a new civil war, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations "deliberate misrepresentation[s]."[229]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Paul Stanton

Individuals

Libertarian Party of Florida affiliates

Organizations

  • Eastern Liberty Alliance PAC[233]
  • Ninjas for Liberty PAC[233]
Augustus Sol Invictus

Individuals

  • Keon A. Grayson, North Central,Miami-Dade County Community councilman[244]
  • Steve Scheetz, former chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party[245]
  • Bill Wohlsifer, former candidate for Florida attorney general[246]

Results

[edit]
2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county
Map legend
  •   Stanton—50-60%
  •   Stanton—60-70%
  •   Stanton—70-80%
  •   Stanton—80-90%
  •   Stanton—>90%
  •   Invictus—50-60%
  •   Tie—50%
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary results[148]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianPaul Stanton2,94673.48%
LibertarianAugustus Sol Invictus1,06326.52%
Total votes4,009100.00%

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

No party affiliation

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
DatesLocationRubioMurphyStantonLink
October 17, 2016Orlando,FloridaParticipantParticipantNot Invited[254]
October 26, 2016Davie,FloridaParticipantParticipantNot Invited[255]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[256]Lean RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[257]Lean RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[258]Lean RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos[259]Lean RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[260]TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Paul
Stanton (L)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey[261]November 1–7, 20164,092± 4.6%48%49%3%
Quinnipiac University[262]November 3–6, 2016884± 3.3%50%43%2%5%
Alliance/ESA Poll[263]November 2–6, 2016875± 4.2%51%40%9%
SurveyMonkey[264]October 31–November 6, 20163,574± 4.6%48%49%3%
CBS News/YouGov[265]November 2–4, 20161,188± 3.6%47%44%3%6%
SurveyMonkey[266]October 28–November 3, 20163,356± 4.6%49%49%2%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[267]November 1–2, 20161,220± 2.8%47%46%7%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[268]November 1–2, 2016603± 4.0%50%46%4%
SurveyMonkey[269]October 27–November 2, 20162,901± 4.6%49%48%3%
CNN/ORC[270]October 27–November 1, 2016773 LV± 3.5%49%48%2%
884 RV50%47%3%
Quinnipiac University[271]October 27–November 1, 2016626± 3.9%50%44%1%4%
SurveyMonkey[272]October 26–November 1, 20162,715± 4.6%49%47%4%
SurveyMonkey[273]October 25–31, 20162,809± 4.6%49%47%4%
TargetSmart/William & Mary[274]October 25–28, 2016718± 3.4%49%43%7%1%
Emerson College[275]October 26–27, 2016500± 4.3%49%47%3%1%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[276]October 25–27, 2016814± 3.4%51%42%5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[277]October 25–26, 20161,301± 2.7%46%46%8%
Public Policy Polling[278]October 25–26, 2016742± 3.6%46%46%8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[279]October 25–26, 2016779 LV± 3.5%51%43%4%2%
990 RV± 3.1%50%42%4%3%
St. Leo University[280]October 22–26, 20161,028± 3.0%44%39%17%
University of North Florida[281]October 20–25, 2016836± 3.6%49%43%8%
Bloomberg/Selzer[282]October 21–24, 2016953± 3.2%51%41%8%
Florida Atlantic University[283]October 21–23, 2016500± 4.3%46%42%12%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[284]October 20–24, 20161,251± 2.8%45%41%6%8%
CBS News/YouGov[285]October 20–21, 20161,042± 3.6%44%42%6%8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[286]October 20, 2016538± 4.2%46%46%8%
Google Consumer Surveys[287]October 18–20, 2016500± 4.2%57%38%5%
Associated Industries of Florida[288]October 19, 20161,000± 3.1%43%38%8%11%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[289]October 16–19, 2016507± 4.4%51%37%1%11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[290]October 17–18, 2016892± 3.0%45%44%11%
Quinnipiac University[291]October 10–16, 2016660± 3.8%49%47%4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[292]October 8–16, 20161,702± 0.5%51%45%4%
Public Policy Polling[293]October 12–13, 2016985± 3.1%44%38%6%12%
48%43%9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[294]October 11–13, 20161,799± 2.3%44%36%20%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[295]October 10–11, 2016533± 4.2%48%44%8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[296]October 3–5, 2016700± 3.7%48%46%2%4%
Associated Industries of Florida[297]October 2–5, 2016600± 4.0%49%41%1%9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[298]October 4, 2016821± 3.4%44%40%16%
Emerson College[299]October 2–4, 2016600± 3.6%47%39%6%8%
University of North Florida[300]September 27–October 4, 2016667± 3.8%48%41%1%10%
Quinnipiac University[301]September 27–October 2, 2016545± 4.2%48%44%8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[302]September 28–29, 2016619± 4.0%47%43%10%
Mason-Dixon[303]September 27–29, 2016820± 3.5%47%40%5%2%6%
Public Policy Polling[304]September 27–28, 2016826± 3.4%42%35%9%15%
47%44%9%
Suffolk University[305]September 19–21, 2016500± 4.4%43%34%2%4%17%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[306]September 15–20, 2016617± 4.0%46%42%11%
Monmouth University[307]September 16–19, 2016400± 4.9%47%45%3%5%
Saint Leo University[308]September 10–16, 2016502± 4.5%44%35%21%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[309]September 10–14, 2016867± 3.3%48%42%8%
CNN/ORC[310]September 7–12, 2016788 LV± 3.0%54%43%1%2%
886 RV51%45%1%4%
Global Strategy Group[311]September 6–11, 2016800± 3.5%47%45%8%
JMC Analytics (R)[312]September 7–8, 2016781± 3.5%43%38%4%15%
Quinnipiac University[313]August 31–September 7, 2016601± 4.0%50%43%1%6%
Public Policy Polling[314]September 4–6, 2016744± 3.6%40%37%10%13%
Mason-Dixon[123]August 22–24, 2016625± 4.0%46%43%11%
iCitizen[315]August 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%43%42%16%
Florida Atlantic University[316]August 19–22, 20161,200± 2.7%44%39%17%
St. Leo University[126]August 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%46%38%16%
Monmouth University[317]August 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%48%43%3%5%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[318]August 10, 2016622± 4.0%45%43%12%
Civis Analytics[319]August 9–15, 20161,436± 2.8%44%45%9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[320]August 4–10, 2016862± 3.3%49%43%3%5%
Public Policy Polling[321]August 5–7, 2016938± 3.2%42%40%18%
Quinnipiac University[322]July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%48%45%7%
Suffolk University[127]August 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%46%33%21%
JMC Analytics (R)[323]July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%40%33%5%21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[324]July 5–11, 2016871± 3.3%47%44%2%7%
Quinnipiac University[325]June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%37%1%8%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[129]June 25–27, 20161,678± 2.4%43%43%7%8%
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%47%40%13%
Public Policy Polling[327]June 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%41%42%17%
Public Policy Polling[328]June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%44%13%
Associated Industries of Florida[329]April 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%49%41%10%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%46%40%14%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%48%41%11%
Mason-Dixon[330]March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%50%38%12%
Public Policy Polling[147]September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%46%41%12%
Hypothetical polling

with Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%41%1%24%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%38%36%26%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%40%26%
Quinnipiac University[332]September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%31%37%1%26%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%37%36%28%
Quinnipiac University[333]June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%32%38%1%29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%42%1%25%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%29%
Associated Industries of Florida[329]April 25–27, 2016604± 5%28%40%32%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%43%26%
Quinnipiac University[332]September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%30%37%1%29%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%25%
Quinnipiac University[333]June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%39%1%29%
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%33%53%

with David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%24%
Public Policy Polling[328]June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%33%40%27%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%28%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%38%35%26%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%39%36%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%25%
Public Policy Polling[328]June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%29%44%27%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%37%29%
Associated Industries of Florida[329]April 25–27, 2016604± 5%33%40%27%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%38%27%
Democracy Corps[334]October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%44%43%13%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%25%
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%35%52%

with Carlos Lopez-Cantera

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
López-Cantera (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%35%40%1%24%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%37%26%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%35%38%26%
Quinnipiac University[332]September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%32%35%1%27%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%34%41%24%
Quinnipiac University[333]June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%37%1%31%
Quinnipiac University[335]March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%33%32%1%34%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%36%40%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
López-Cantera (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%41%1%26%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%38%28%
Associated Industries of Florida[329]April 25–27, 2016604± 5%31%42%27%
Public Policy Polling[135]February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%40%29%
Quinnipiac University[332]September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%29%37%1%30%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%41%24%
Quinnipiac University[333]June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%28%40%1%32%
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%30%56%
Quinnipiac University[335]March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%31%35%1%33%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%34%41%25%

with Jeff Atwater

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Atwater (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[335]March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%42%32%1%25%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%40%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Atwater (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[335]March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%38%34%1%27%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%39%20%
Mason-Dixon[330]March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%46%32%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Atwater (R)
Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[330]March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%45%35%20%

with Pam Bondi

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pam
Bondi (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%42%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pam
Bondi (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%41%14%

with Don Gaetz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Don
Gaetz (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Undecided
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%9%36%55%

with Jeff Miller

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Miller (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Undecided
St. Leo University[143]May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%34%52%

with Marco Rubio

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[336]September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%45%42%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[330]March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%53%36%11%
Public Policy Polling[147]September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%47%43%9%
Public Policy Polling[337]June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%48%40%12%
Public Policy Polling[336]September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%46%43%11%

with Allen West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Allen
West (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%42%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Allen
West (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%41%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Allen
West (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[336]September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%38%44%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Allen
West (R)
Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[337]June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%41%40%19%
Public Policy Polling[336]September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%40%44%16%

with Todd Wilcox

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Wilcox (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%39%2%24%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Wilcox (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%41%1%26%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%33%38%27%

with Carlos Beruff

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[322]July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%39%43%1%17%
Quinnipiac University[325]June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%38%38%1%19%
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%40%1%25%
Public Policy Polling[328]June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%32%41%28%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University[322]July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%34%48%1%17%
Quinnipiac University[325]June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%34%40%1%19%
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%43%1%26%
Public Policy Polling[328]June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%31%43%27%
Quinnipiac University[331]April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%32%38%29%
Associated Industries of Florida[329]April 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%31%39%30%

with Alan Grayson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
iCitizen[315]August 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%44%39%16%
St. Leo University[126]August 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%47%34%19%
Monmouth University[317]August 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%50%39%5%6%
Quinnipiac University[322]July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%49%43%1%8%
Suffolk University[127]August 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%45%31%24%
JMC Analytics (R)[323]July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%41%33%4%22%
Quinnipiac University[325]June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%38%1%8%
Quinnipiac University[326]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%50%38%1%11%
Public Policy Polling[327]June 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%42%40%17%
Public Policy Polling[328]June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%38%19%
Public Policy Polling[139]September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%48%38%14%
Public Policy Polling[145]March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%49%40%11%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Florida, 2016[338]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanMarco Rubio (incumbent)4,835,19151.98%+3.09%
DemocraticPatrick Murphy4,122,08844.31%+24.11%
LibertarianPaul Stanton196,9562.12%+1.66%
IndependentBruce Nathan52,4510.56%N/A
IndependentTony Khoury45,8200.49%N/A
IndependentSteven Machat26,9180.29%N/A
IndependentBasil E. Dalack22,2360.24%N/A
Write-in1600.00%0.00%
Total votes9,301,820100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that from Independent to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Rubio won 16 of 27 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Murphy. Each candidate won a congressional district that elected a representative of the other party.[339]

DistrictRubioMurphyRepresentative
1st70%25%Jeff Miller
Matt Gaetz
2nd66%30%Gwen Graham
Neal Dunn
3rd59%37%Ted Yoho
4th68%28%Ander Crenshaw
John Rutherford
5th41%56%Corrine Brown
Al Lawson
6th57%39%Ron DeSantis
7th49%46%John Mica
Stephanie Murphy
8th59%36%Bill Posey
9th46%50%Alan Grayson
Darren Soto
10th40%56%Daniel Webster
Val Demings
11th62%33%Rich Nugent
Daniel Webster
12th56%38%Gus Bilirakis
13th47%48%David Jolly
Charlie Crist
14th44%52%Kathy Castor
15th54%41%Dennis Ross
16th55%40%Vern Buchanan
17th62%33%Tom Rooney
18th52%45%Patrick Murphy
Brian Mast
19th65%31%Curt Clawson
Francis Rooney
20th21%77%Alcee Hastings
21st42%55%Lois Frankel
22nd43%55%Ted Deutch
23rd40%58%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th20%78%Frederica Wilson
25th60%38%Mario Díaz-Balart
26th49%48%Carlos Curbelo
27th48.5%49.3%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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  303. ^Mason-DixonArchived October 5, 2016, at theWayback Machine
  304. ^Public Policy Polling
  305. ^Suffolk UniversityArchived September 23, 2016, at theWayback Machine
  306. ^Florida Chamber of Commerce
  307. ^Monmouth University
  308. ^Saint Leo University
  309. ^New York Times Upshot/Siena College
  310. ^CNN/ORC
  311. ^Global Strategy Group
  312. ^JMC Analytics (R)
  313. ^Quinnipiac UniversityArchived September 15, 2016, at theWayback Machine
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  315. ^abiCitizen
  316. ^Florida Atlantic University
  317. ^abMonmouth University
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  319. ^Civis Analytics
  320. ^NBC/WSJ/Marist
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  334. ^Democracy Corps
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  339. ^"Dra 2020".Archived from the original on February 28, 2023. RetrievedJuly 23, 2024.

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