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2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

← 2008
April 26, 2016 (2016-04-26)
2020 →
← MD
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CandidateHillary ClintonBernie Sanders
Home stateNew YorkVermont
Delegate count10683
Popular vote935,107731,881
Percentage55.61%43.53%

County results

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%

Sanders

  40–50%
  50–60%

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The2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 26 in the U.S. state ofPennsylvania as one of theDemocratic Party's primaries ahead of the2016 presidential election.

TheDemocratic Party's primaries inConnecticut,Delaware,Maryland andRhode Island were held the same day, as wereRepublican primaries in the same five states, including their ownPennsylvania primary. Despite winning the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton went on to lose the state to Republican candidateDonald Trump in thegeneral election.

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Official Primary results[1]April 26, 2016Hillary Clinton
55.6%
Bernie Sanders
43.5%
Other
0.9%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy[2]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 942

April 24, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
7%
CPEC LLC[3]

Margin of error: ± 2.3%
Sample size: 665

April 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Public Policy Polling[4]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 728

April 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
9%
American Research Group[5]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

April 21–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
Harper Polling[6]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 641

April 21–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS/YouGov[7]

Margin of error: ± 6.7%
Sample size: 831

April 20–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[8]

Margin of error: ± 1.9%
Sample size: 734

April 18–20, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[9]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

April 17–19, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
9%
Franklin & Marshall College[10]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 510

April 11–18, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
11%
FOX News[11]

Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 805

April 4–7, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
13%
Quinnipiac[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

March 30-April 4, 2016Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
6%
Harper[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 603

April 2–3, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
12%
Franklin & Marshall[14]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 408

March 14–20, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided
19%
Harper[15]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 347

March 1–2, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
16%
Franklin & Marshall College[16]

Margin of error: ± 3.1%
Sample size: 486

February 13–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
25%
Robert Morris University[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 511

February 11–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Harper[18]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 640

January 22–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Undecided 13%
Franklin & Marshall[19]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 361

January 18–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other 7%, Undecided 16%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Franklin & Marshall[20]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 303

October 19–25, 2015Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Martin O'Malley
0%
Other 12%, Undecided 18%
Public Policy Polling[21]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 416

October 8–11, 2015Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden
20%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Not Sure 12%
Quinnipiac University[22]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462

August 7–18, 2015Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Joe Biden
17%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[23]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

June 4–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%
Joe Biden
15%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Public Policy Polling[24]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

May 21–24, 2015Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Martin O'Malley
6%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Not sure 12%
Quinnipiac University[25]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

March 17–28, 2015Hillary Clinton
48%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
13%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
27%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 25%
Quinnipiac University[26]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 392

January 22 – February 1, 2015Hillary Clinton
54%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
10%
Martin O'Malley 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
21%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Jim Webb 4%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling[27]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 494

January 15–18, 2015Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Public Policy Polling[28]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 382

May 30 – June 1, 2014Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo
5%
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Franklin & Marshall College[29]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 524

March 25–31, 2014Hillary Clinton
55%
Joe Biden
5%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 0%, Other 5%, Undecided 29%
Franklin & Marshall College[30]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 548

February 18–23, 2014Hillary Clinton
58%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Joe Biden
6%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Other 3%, Undecided 23%
Polls in 2013
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Public Policy Polling[31]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 436

November 22–25, 2013Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Cory Booker 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 9%

Results

[edit]
See also:Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton935,10755.61%10620126
Bernie Sanders731,88143.53%83083
Rocky De La Fuente14,4390.86%000
Total1,681,427100%18920209
Source:[32][33]

Results by county

[edit]
County[34]Clinton%Sanders%OthersTotalsTurnoutMargin
Adams3,86348.08%4,10151.04%718,03541.15%-2.96%
Allegheny123,71555.08%99,07844.11%1,819224,61243.18%10.97%
Armstrong2,99248.30%3,07349.60%1306,19539.00%-1.31%
Beaver13,53156.92%9,87341.53%36923,77340.41%15.39%
Bedford1,38848.91%1,38748.87%632,83829.56%0.04%
Berks21,06348.35%22,07850.68%42243,56337.68%-2.33%
Blair3,96546.87%4,36051.54%13523,98835.27%-4.67%
Bradford1,80948.88%1,83949.69%533,70135.49%-0.81%
Bucks46,91755.90%36,17343.10%83783,92743.88%12.80%
Butler8,79052.10%7,83346.43%24916,87240.98%5.67%
Cambria8,50747.16%9,02450.02%50918,04039.64%-2.87%
Cameron18641.89%24054.05%1844436.33%-12.16%
Carbon3,38448.73%3,46049.82%1016,94538.13%-1.09%
Centre8,45844.72%10,33154.63%12318,91241.15%-9.90%
Chester33,08255.62%26,19344.04%20459,47946.05%11.58%
Clarion1,52949.34%1,51148.76%593,09938.37%0.58%
Clearfield3,19447.30%3,41450.56%1456,75332.18%-3.26%
Clinton1,70448.63%1,73949.63%613,50439.02%-1.00%
Columbia2,50440.48%3,60158.21%816,18639.59%-17.73%
Crawford3,70748.69%3,78949.76%1187,61439.39%-1.08%
Cumberland12,42151.54%11,51347.77%16824,10245.45%3.77%
Dauphin18,47456.82%13,78742.41%25032,51136.26%14.42%
Delaware46,25259.73%30,82439.80%36377,43943.45%19.92%
Elk1,60145.50%1,84652.46%723,51936.47%-6.96%
Erie20,39552.17%18,36246.97%33839,09540.76%5.20%
Fayette9,19557.69%6,46040.53%28515,94032.70%17.16%
Forest25152.07%22145.85%1048237.28%6.22%
Franklin4,70751.69%4,28247.02%1189,10737.27%4.67%
Fulton36648.87%36548.73%1874928.81%0.13%
Greene2,26852.55%1,92744.65%1214,31634.27%7.90%
Huntingdon1,30443.28%1,66655.29%433,01333.11%-12.01%
Indiana4,04950.34%3,83947.73%1568,04440.04%2.61%
Jefferson1,24943.89%1,50752.95%909,71229.30%-9.07%
Juniata66445.60%75451.79%383,99636.44%-6.18%
Lackawanna23,02056.52%17,30842.49%40240,73045.36%14.02%
Lancaster19,84047.97%21,32151.55%19741,35840.14%-3.58%
Lawrence5,84558.64%3,98139.94%1429,96836.39%18.70%
Lebanon4,66949.88%4,59949.13%939,36135.78%0.75%
Lehigh20,43052.40%18,33847.03%22438,99235.66%5.37%
Luzerne20,54251.94%18,54346.89%46239,54737.49%5.05%
Lycoming3,80843.94%4,73054.58%1288,66639.29%-10.64%
McKean1,05346.18%1,19052.19%372,28031.50%-6.01%
Mercer6,53056.99%4,73941.36%19011,45933.91%15.63%
Miflin1,20148.29%1,24249.94%442,48732.93%-1.65%
Monroe8,16953.27%7,04245.92%12315,33431.37%7.35%
Montgomery75,62859.00%52,13240.67%421128,18149.31%18.33%
Montour84647.85%89050.34%321,76837.84%-2.49%
Northampton18,10451.18%16,94047.89%32835,37237.27%3.29%
Northumberland3,58248.92%3,63249.60%1087,32233.78%-0.68%
Perry1,32942.60%1,75256.15%393,12043.59%-13.56%
Philadelphia218,95962.59%129,35336.98%1,493349,80543.50%25.62%
Pike2,00951.22%1,89448.29%193,92229.70%2.93%
Potter40240.94%56057.03%2098233.83%-16.09%
Schuylkill6,53451.30%6,04047.42%16412,73837.61%3.88%
Snyder1,12550.40%1,08148.43%262,23241.42%1.97%
Somerset3,11448.18%3,20649.61%1436,46335.95%-1.42%
Sullivan31250.16%29647.59%1462240.65%2.57%
Susquehanna1,68050.42%1,61048.32%423,33241.41%2.10%
Tioga1,05543.20%1,35455.45%332,44234.07%-12.24%
Union1,62650.50%1,57949.04%153,22046.09%1.46%
Venango2,02048.08%2,08749.68%944,20137.90%-1.59%
Warren1,83651.66%1,66546.85%533,55433.49%4.81%
Washington15,87257.43%11,26240.75%50527,63941.38%16.68%
Wayne1,85947.44%2,02651.70%343,91939.12%-4.26%
Westmoreland25,00954.31%20,28644.05%75446,04939.24%10.26%
Wyoming1,12348.21%1,16850.42%332,39845.72%-2.21%
York18,45950.72%17,54448.21%39036,39336.74%2.51%
Total935,10755.61%731,88143.53%14,4391,681,42741.39%12.09%

Analysis

[edit]

Clinton won a large victory over runner-up Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania, replicating her2008 performance againstBarack Obama in Pennsylvania. According to exit polls, Clinton won thewhite vote 51–47 (68% of the electorate), won theAfrican American vote 70–30 (19% of the electorate), and won amongwomen 60-39 (she lostmen 50–49 to Sanders). While Sanders won amongyounger voters 63–37, Clinton won votersover the age of 45 66–33. Clinton swept all income and educational attainment levels except for whites withoutcollege degrees, whom Sanders won 50–49.

Clinton swept all political ideologies in the primary. She wonDemocrats 62-38 but lost self-identifiedIndependents to Sanders 72–26.

Clinton also won amongunions 56–43, a very important demographic in a bigmanufacturing state like Pennsylvania.

Clinton won large victories in all of Pennsylvania's major cities: she won inPhiladelphia 63–37, theaffluentPhiladelphia suburbs 58–42, and also carried the cities ofPittsburgh andErie. She won inNortheastern Pennsylvania 51–48, and inWestern Pennsylvania 54–45. Sanders, for his part, did better in therural parts of the state, winning rural voters 50–48 and carryingCentral Pennsylvania 50–49.[35] Sanders swept many of the more remote andconservative counties of the state, including parts ofAmish country such asLancaster County.

Of her victory in Pennsylvania,New York Times analyst Alan Rappeport commented, "Lots of Philadelphia history and imagery coming from Clinton now. It's almost as if she has her convention speech ready."[36]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Official Primary results
  2. ^"Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll 4/25/16"(PDF). Opinion Savvy. April 25, 2016. RetrievedApril 25, 2016.
  3. ^"Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll"(PDF). CPEC LLC. April 26, 2016. RetrievedApril 26, 2016.
  4. ^"Clinton, Sanders close in CT/PA/RI; Trump Headed for Big Wins"(PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 25, 2016. RetrievedApril 25, 2016.
  5. ^"2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 58%, Sanders 38% (ARG 4/21-4/24)". American Research Group. April 26, 2016. RetrievedApril 26, 2016.
  6. ^"Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll". Harper Polling. April 26, 2016. RetrievedApril 26, 2016.
  7. ^"Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana". RetrievedApril 24, 2016.
  8. ^"Trump and Clinton Hold Strong Leads in Pennsylvania, New Poll Shows". RetrievedApril 24, 2016.
  9. ^"PENNSYLVANIA: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY 13"(PDF). RetrievedApril 20, 2016.
  10. ^"April 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll"(PDF). RetrievedApril 21, 2016.
  11. ^"Fox News Poll: Trump holds huge lead in Pennsylvania, Clinton up over Sanders". RetrievedApril 10, 2016.
  12. ^"Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Poll March 30-April 4, 2016"(PDF). RetrievedApril 6, 2016.
  13. ^"Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll April 2-3, 2016". RetrievedApril 5, 2016.
  14. ^"March 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll"(PDF). RetrievedMarch 24, 2016.
  15. ^"PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE POLL REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES".
  16. ^"Franklin & Marshall February 13–21, 2016"(PDF).
  17. ^"2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary – Clinton 48%, Sanders 41% (Robert Morris University 2/11-2/16)".
  18. ^Field, Nick."Harper Poll: Clinton 55% Sanders 28%". Politics PA. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2016.
  19. ^"January 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll"(PDF). Franklin & Martin. January 28, 2016. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2016.
  20. ^"Franklin and Marshall College Poll: Survey of Pennsylvanians Summary of Findings"(PDF). Franklin & Marshall. October 29, 2015. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2016.
  21. ^Public Policy Polling
  22. ^"Quinnipiac poll"(PDF).Quinnipiac.edu. RetrievedAugust 20, 2015.
  23. ^"Quinnipiac poll"(PDF).quinnipiac.edu. RetrievedJuly 9, 2015.
  24. ^Public Policy Polling
  25. ^Quinnipiac University
  26. ^Quinnipiac University
  27. ^Public Policy Polling
  28. ^Public Policy Polling
  29. ^Franklin & Marshall College
  30. ^Franklin & Marshall College
  31. ^Public Policy Polling
  32. ^The Green Papers
  33. ^Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results
  34. ^"Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results".
  35. ^"2016 Election Center".CNN. RetrievedOctober 16, 2016.
  36. ^"Pennsylvania Primary Election Results 2016".The New York Times. RetrievedOctober 16, 2016.
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