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2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016Michigan Democratic presidential primary

← 2012
March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08)
2020 →
← DA
MS →
 
CandidateBernie SandersHillary Clinton
Home stateVermontNew York
Delegate count6763
Popular vote598,943581,775
Percentage49.68%48.26%

Results by county
Congressional district results
Sanders:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Clinton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Elections in Michigan
U.S. President
Presidential Primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Other localities

The2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state ofMichigan as one of theDemocratic Party's primaries ahead of the2016 presidential election.

On the same day, theDemocratic Party held a second primary inMississippi, while theRepublican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary.Bernie Sanders' narrow win was a massive upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in thegeneral election, against Republican nomineeDonald Trump.

Forums and debates

[edit]

March 2016 debate in Flint

[edit]
Main article:Seventh Democratic Party presidential debate, March 2016 in Flint, Michigan

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate atThe Whiting at theFlint Cultural Center.Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoingFlint water crisis.[2] The debate was hosted byAnderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced alabor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

[edit]
See also:2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at theGem Theatre inDetroit, Michigan, and was aired by theFox News Channel.[3] The forum was moderated byBret Baier.

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Official Primary results[4]March 8, 2016Bernie Sanders
49.7%
Hillary Clinton
48.3%
Others / Uncommitted
2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482

March 7, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475

March 6, 2016Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[7]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 3–6, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 4–5, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 7.7%
Sample size: 597

March 2–4, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
1%
Mitchell/FOX 2[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 610

March 2–3, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 546

March 1–3, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
3%
MSU[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 262

January 25-March 3, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 427

March 1, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
MRG[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 218

February 22–27, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

February 23, 2016Hillary Clinton
65%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[15]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–20, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.69%
Sample size: 430

February 15, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 321

February 4, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 2–4, 2016Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group[19]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

September 9–14, 2015Hillary Clinton
41%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden 22%Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

June 25–28, 2015Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Lincoln Chafee 5%Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk[21]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 212

September 6–10, 2014Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
17%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

[edit]
See also:Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders598,94349.68%67067
Hillary Clinton581,77548.26%631073
Uncommitted21,6011.79%077
Martin O'Malley(withdrawn)2,3630.20%
Rocky De La Fuente8700.07%
Total1,205,552100%13017147
Source:[22]
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
DistrictDelegatesVotes ClintonVotes SandersVotes QualifiedClinton delegatesSanders delegates
1628,86044,35973,21924
2526,09039,83465,92423
3528,44145,28273,72323
4524,92835,59760,52523
5748,62242,75591,37743
6528,26539,15767,42223
7529,18636,01965,20523
8535,20546,96982,17423
9648,57050,90399,47333
10528,31433,71062,02423
11639,73245,05484,78633
12750,15758,892109,04934
13971,23537,028108,26363
14988,49442,608131,10263
Total85581,775598,9431,180,7184144
PLEO17581,775598,9431,180,71889
At Large28581,775598,9431,180,7181414
Gr. Total130581,775598,9431,180,7186367
Total vote1,205,55248.26%49.68%
Source:Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

[edit]
CountyClinton%Sanders%OthersTotalsTurnoutMargin
Alcona46348.74%45547.89%2694730.60%-0.84%
Alger38437.07%62260.64%261,03544.61%23.00%
Allegan3,51138.01%5,56960.28%169,05011.28%22.29%
Alpena1,10244.26%1,34754.10%262,47836.51%9.89%
Antrim86736.09%1,49162.07%392,40032.72%26.00%
Arenac59546.12%66351.40%241,28535.89%5.29%
Baraga27040.36%37155.46%2566937.93%15.10%
Barry1,73635.41%3,07862.79%744,89131.62%27.44%
Bay5,93745.98%6,36349.28%55512,85847.83%3.31%
Benzie85333.48%1,65064.76%432,54944.66%31.27%
Berrien6,69851.54%5,96845.93%28512,95436.25%-5.64%
Branch1,01043.44%1,24653.59%592,31827.23%10.18%
Calhoun5,23146.36%5,81251.51%20111,24741.28%5.17%
Cass1,65748.37%1,68449.15%693,41331.70%0.79%
Charlevoix1,04436.73%1,73060.87%582,83536.23%24.20%
Cheboygan1,01042.62%1,31855.61%362,36734.21%13.01%
Chippewa1,23039.83%1,79358.06%553,08138.49%18.27%
Clare1,09045.76%1,23952.02%432,37535.01%6.27%
Clinton3,40242.16%4,49655.72%1508,05138.76%13.59%
Crawford49442.33%63154.07%361,16433.90%11.77%
Delta1,40943.34%1,70552.45%1223,23939.53%9.14%
Dickinson90843.51%1,07551.51%992,08530.20%8.01%
Eaton5,86643.99%7,12553.43%29813,29244.13%9.47%
Emmet1,36933.91%2,58964.13%684,02914.48%30.28%
Genesee31,36651.75%28,17146.48%94660,48659.79%-5.28%
Gladwin98546.33%1,08350.94%462,11733.72%
Gogebic67844.90%79052.32%381,50946.65%
Grand Traverse4,14033.19%8,09164.86%20612,44041.56%
Gratiot1,18538.87%1,81259.43%423,04238.52%
Hillsdale97740.17%1,38056.74%592,41924.31%
Houghton1,10934.79%2,03963.96%353,18641.79%
Huron1,05045.99%1,18451.86%362,27329.30%
Ingham17,88443.49%22,58054.91%56241,02959.65%
Ionia1,49133.99%2,81264.11%624,36834.63%
Iosco1,07746.08%1,20251.43%542,33637.45%
Iron52748.30%54650.05%181,09436.11%
Isabella2,03233.19%4,02465.72%556,11449.53%
Jackson5,28842.72%6,80454.97%23012,32537.16%
Kalamazoo12,61137.92%20,16260.63%40833,18450.40%
Kalkaska59035.53%98761.11%301,61030.46%
Kent26,03236.86%43,44461.52%98770,506
Keweenaw12839.75%18858.39%6325
Lake54850.14%51447.03%301,095
Lapeer3,32540.39%4,65056.49%2218,199
Leelanau1,45937.67%2,36060.93%443,866
Lenawee3,45543.73%4,25653.87%1637,877
Livingston6,70538.14%10,43559.35%39617,539
Luce16735.46%29161.78%11472
Mackinac50042.77%63354.15%291,165
Macomb47,59948.80%46,24847.42%2,53471,008
Manistee1,12039.63%1,64658.24%512,820
Marquette3,18835.59%5,53061.74%2038,924
Mason1,22340.56%1,74157.24%382,772
Mecosta1,17338.88%1,76858.60%633,007
Menominee83548.72%80546.97%641,707
Midland3,09739.81%4,56858.71%887,756
Missaukee40139.08%59157.60%331,028
Monroe6,71647.25%6,84248.13%59514,156
Montcalm1,68136.85%2,76260.54%
Montmorency39248.70%38347.58%
Muskegon8,80744.53%10,45652.86%
Newaygo1,29536.49%2,15560.72%
Oakland92,30051.38%84,16346.85%
Oceana79138.21%1,23759.76%
Ogemaw86246.24%92649.68%
Ontonagon32744.37%36249.12%
Osceola67040.39%95357.44%
Oscoda27344.90%31551.81%
Otsego78637.97%1,22859.5%
Ottawa7,47334.39%13,95964.24%
Presque Isle59247.70%60648.83%
Roscommon1,16347.33%1,18748.31%
Saginaw12,49055.32%9,67642.86%
St. Clair5,97340.96%8,34756.54%
St. Joseph1,38237.66%2,21960.46%
Sanilac1,16042.00%1,48553.77%
Schoolcraft31245.75%34550.59%
Shiawassee3,03139.38%4,45257.84%
Tuscola1,98442.65%2,53254.43%
Van Buren2,48439.73%3,65658.48%
Washtenaw30,02243.70%38,06255.41%
Wayne165,81960.11%105,48738.24%
Wexford90932.95%1,79364.99%
Total581,77548.26%598,94349.68%

Results by congressional district

[edit]
DistrictSandersClinton
1st59.09%38.44%
2nd59.24%38.80%
3rd60.38%37.92%
4th57.48%40.26%
5th45.77%52.05%
6th57.03%41.17%
7th53.72%43.53%
8th56.00%41.97%
9th49.75%47.47%
10th52.32%43.95%
11th52.11%45.95%
12th53.09%45.22%
13th33.74%64.92%
14th32.10%66.66%

Analysis

[edit]

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between thestate party andDNC.[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory inMississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich MidwesternRust Belt states,[76] such asMissouri,Ohio andIllinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along withNorth Carolina andFlorida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated.Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women andAfrican Americans, but Sanders's margins withindependents andrural voters, mostlyworking classwhites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised bytrade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,[23] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such asDetroit andFlint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against theauto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended uponmanufacturing and theauto industry. Amongunions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[24] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[23]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that theBernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."[23]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

AlongsideWisconsin, Michigan was among the two"Blue Wall" states won byBernie Sanders in the primary election thatDonald Trump would ultimately flip in thegeneral election.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".realclearpolitics.com. RetrievedMay 28, 2016.
  2. ^"Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6".Detroit News. February 3, 2016. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2016.
  3. ^Feldman, Josh."Fox News Will Hold Democratic Town Hall Next Week; Only One Candidate Set to Appear". MSN. Archived fromthe original on March 7, 2016. RetrievedMarch 4, 2016.
  4. ^Official Primary results
  5. ^"Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  6. ^"Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan"(PDF).
  7. ^"MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT"(PDF).
  8. ^ab"Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  9. ^"Clinton's lead on Sanders shrinks heading into Michigan Primary".
  10. ^"Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Big Leads in Michigan: Poll".
  11. ^"TRUMP LEADS GOP FIELD IN MICHIGAN; DEMOCRATIC RACE CLOSE".
  12. ^"Clinton, Trump maintain large leads ahead of debates, primary".
  13. ^"Trump & Clinton Poised to Take Michigan"(PDF).
  14. ^"Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% February 23, 2016"(PDF).
  15. ^"ARG POll February 19–20, 2016".
  16. ^"Clinton Leads Sanders by 33%"(PDF).realclearpolitics.com. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2016.
  17. ^"Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support"(PDF).
  18. ^ab"IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Clinton Dominates Dem Primary".insidemichiganpolitics.com. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2016.
  19. ^"Hillary up 19 over Biden and Sanders".mrgmi.com. RetrievedSeptember 16, 2015.
  20. ^"PPP MI"(PDF).publicpolicypolling.com. RetrievedJuly 9, 2015.
  21. ^Suffolk
  22. ^The Green Papers
  23. ^abcLee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan."What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?".CNN. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2016.
  24. ^"2016 Election Center".CNN. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2016.
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