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| Elections in Oklahoma |
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The2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Oklahoma, concurrently with theregularly-scheduled election to Oklahoma'sother Senate seat, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate andlocal elections.
This special election was held to fill the remaining two years of incumbentRepublican SenatorTom Coburn's second term. Coburn, a strong supporter ofterm limits, had announced even before he was elected to the Senatein 2004 that he would only serve for two terms. After he was re-electedin 2010, he reaffirmed that he would not run for re-electionin 2016.[1][2]
In January 2014, Coburn announced he would resign early at the end of the113th United States Congress on January 3, 2015.[3][4] As pursuant to Oklahoma law, he submitted an "irrevocable letter of resignation" to take effect on that day. Thus, the special election was held while he was still in office.[5][6]
Unlike most states, except in very specific circumstances,[a] OklahomaGovernorMary Fallin did not have the power to appoint a replacement senator. Instead, state law required her to schedule the special election "as soon as practicable".[8]
Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Republicans nominated U.S. RepresentativeJames Lankford; as no candidate in the Democratic primary received more than 50% of the vote, a primary runoff election was held on August 26 between State SenatorConnie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers, which Johnson won. In the general election, Lankford defeated Johnson in a landslide (winning every county) and was sworn in on the day Coburn's resignation took effect. When Lankford won re-election in 2016 and 2022, he won every county both times.
By April 2014, Lankford andT.W. Shannon were seen as the main contenders for the Republican nomination, with Brogdon a potential spoiler who was running even further to the right than they did. Although there was reported to be "little daylight ideologically" between Lankford and Shannon, and both are associated with theTea Party movement, Shannon attracted the support of figures includingTed Cruz,Mike Lee andSarah Palin and organizations includingFreedomWorks and theSenate Conservatives Fund. They criticized Lankford for his votes to raise the debt ceiling and for being a member of the Republican House leadership. Supporters of Lankford, including the chairman of theOklahoma Republican Party, pointed out Shannon's ties to the establishment-supporting CongressmanTom Cole, accused Cruz, Lee, Palin and the others of being "outsiders" who were attempting to meddle in the state's primary, and also pointed out that the aforementioned had previously criticized Coburn, whom they were now praising in an attempt to woo him into supporting Shannon.[9] Local Tea Party groups also criticised thenational conservatives, saying in an open letter that they had endorsed Shannon without consulting them or examining his record, that Shannon was a "poser" who "had never stepped foot" in a Tea Party meeting before announcing his run for the Senate and "no longer attends grassroots meetings nor does he seek the grassroots support".[10]
In June, Coburn responded to attack ads calling Lankford a "Washington insider" who "votes with liberals" by saying that "political advertisements by groups... supporting T.W. Shannon have crossed an important line — they simply aren't truthful and they mischaracterize James Lankford's service in Congress." He also called Lankford "a man of absolute integrity" who was "one of the most honest, thoughtful and sincere men I have met in my time in Washington." He also praised Lankford's "life experience", "perspective" and willingness to fight the "status quo", but stopped short of fully endorsing him. He did however say that "as a voter", the negative ads from pro-Shannon groups made him question Shannon's ability to govern.[11]
By mid-June, Lankford was considered to have the momentum, a reversal of fortunes, though a runoff was considered likely.[12] Shannon's negative advertisements were considered to have backfired, in contrast to Lankford's advertisements, which were largely positive. Lankford also raised and spent more money than Shannon, who was not significantly helped financially by national conservative groups, who had focused their attention on theprimary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent senatorThad Cochran and conservative challengerChris McDaniel. The runoff in Mississippi was held on the same day as the primary in Oklahoma and Alexandra Jaffe ofThe Hill reported that Shannon's best hope was to force a runoff, which would allow the national groups to refocus on Oklahoma.[13] Outside spending for Shannon was $1.8m compared to $170,000 for Lankford but Lankford spent $1.8m to Shannon's $1.1m.[14]
In what was considered a surprise result, Lankford defeated Shannon by over 20%, negating the need for a runoff. Lankford ran a strong, well-organised campaign, considered by Congressman Tom Cole to be "probably the best organization in the state that was operating at this time". He was also helped by his "existing statewide presence grounded in the state'sburgeoning Baptist community", which goes back to his time before politics when he ran theFalls Creek Baptist Youth Camp,[15] and the fact that his congressional district is based inOklahoma City, where turnout was predicted to be high because there was also a competitive race in the Republican primary to succeed him. To attempt to counteract that, Shannon targeted the media market inTulsa.[12][14] Finally, unlike in other races, there was no split between the establishment and the Tea Party, with Shannon not capitalising on an "anti-establishment" wave that benefited others likeBen Sasse inNebraska. Cole summarised: "We don't need people coming in and telling us who conservatives are, [because] everybody is a conservative. There are no moderates."[14] State SenatorDavid Holt, who supported Shannon, said that Coburn's comments about Lankford were the most important factor, saying that "Senator Coburn is enormously respected in Oklahoma, and when it appeared that he had a preference, I think that the voters listened."[14]
Individuals
State Legislators[37]
Individuals
Organizations
State Legislators[50]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Randy Brogdon | Andy Craig | Kevin Crow | James Lankford | Eric McCray | T.W. Shannon | J. C. Watts | Jason Weger | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[51] | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 627 | ± 3.91% | — | — | — | 37% | — | 8% | 40% | 2% | — | 13% |
| — | — | — | 54% | — | 18% | — | 1% | — | 27% | ||||
| Tarrance Group*[52] | February 10–12, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.9% | — | — | 3% | 47% | — | 17% | — | — | — | 33% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[53] | February 9–11, 2014 | ? | ± ? | — | — | — | 51% | — | 16% | — | — | 1% | 32% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[54] | March 16–17, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 7% | — | — | 37% | — | 28% | — | — | 3% | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[53] | April 21–22, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.48% | 7% | — | — | 32% | — | 42% | — | — | 3% | 16% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy[55] | April 23–29, 2014 | 400 | ± ? | 3.5% | 1% | 0.3% | 30.8% | — | 32% | — | — | 1.0% | 32.5% |
| American Viewpoint[56] | April 27–29, 2014 | ? | ± ? | — | — | — | 36% | — | 34% | — | — | ? | ? |
| SoonerPoll[57] | May 5–10, 2014 | 580 | ± 4.07% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 33.8% | 0.6% | 31.9% | — | 1.5% | — | 25.4% |
| Tarrance Group*[58] | May 12–14, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 5% | — | — | 43% | — | 33% | — | — | — | 18% |
| American Viewpoint[56] | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 4% | — | — | 48% | — | 26% | — | — | 3% | 18% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[59] | June 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.81% | — | — | — | 39% | — | 37% | — | — | 6% | 18% |
| Tarrance Group*[60] | June 9–11, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | — | — | — | 41% | — | 34% | — | — | 7% | 18% |
| SoonerPoll[61] | June 14–18, 2014 | 415 | ± 4.81% | 3% | — | — | 41% | — | 38% | — | — | 2% | 16% |
| SoonerPoll[62] | June 19–21, 2014 | 840 | ± 3.38% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 43.4% | 0.9% | 34.9% | — | 1.5% | — | 13.3% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Randy Brogdon | James Lankford | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy[55] | April 23–29, 2014 | 400 | ± ? | 10.2% | 50% | 39.8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | James Lankford | T.W. Shannon | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy[55] | April 23–29, 2014 | 400 | ± ? | 30.2% | 38.2% | 31.5% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | James Lankford | 152,749 | 57.24% | |
| Republican | T. W. Shannon | 91,854 | 34.42% | |
| Republican | Randy Brogdon | 12,934 | 4.85% | |
| Republican | Kevin Crow | 2,828 | 1.06% | |
| Republican | Andy Craig | 2,427 | 0.91% | |
| Republican | Eric McCray | 2,272 | 0.85% | |
| Republican | Jason Weger | 1,794 | 0.67% | |
| Total votes | 266,858 | 100.00% | ||
Individuals
Organizations
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Patrick Hayes | Connie Johnson | Jim Rogers | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll[77] | May 5–10, 2014 | 631 | ± 3.9% | 5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | — | 76.3% |
| SoonerPoll[62] | June 19–21, 2014 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 6.4% | 13.2% | 5.4% | — | 75.1% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Constance N. Johnson | 71,462 | 43.84% | |
| Democratic | Jim Rogers | 57,598 | 35.34% | |
| Democratic | Patrick Hayes | 33,943 | 20.82% | |
| Total votes | 163,003 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Constance N. Johnson | 54,762 | 57.99% | |
| Democratic | Jim Rogers | 39,664 | 42.01% | |
| Total votes | 94,426 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[79] | Solid R | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] | Safe R | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[81] | Safe R | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[82] | Safe R | November 3, 2014 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | James Lankford (R) | Connie Johnson (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[83] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,302 | ± 4.7% | 56% | 34% | 6% | 5% |
| Rasmussen[84] | August 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 58% | 29% | 6% | 7% |
| Sooner Poll[85] | August 28–30, 2014 | 603 | ± 3.99% | 58% | 28% | 3%[86] | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[87] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 821 | ± 5% | 61% | 28% | 1% | 10% |
| Sooner Poll[88] | September 27–29, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 56% | 28% | 4% | 12% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[89] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,244 | ± 3% | 65% | 24% | 0% | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[89] | October 16–23, 2014 | 995 | ± 5% | 63% | 29% | 0% | 8% |
| Sooner Poll[90] | October 25–29, 2014 | 949 | ± 3.18% | 59% | 28% | 4%[86] | 9% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | James Lankford | 557,002 | 67.85% | −2.79% | |
| Democratic | Connie Johnson | 237,923 | 28.98% | +2.85% | |
| Independent | Mark T. Beard | 25,965 | 3.17% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 820,890 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Official campaign websites (Archived)
