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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

← 2008
November 4, 2014
2020 →
 
NomineeShelley Moore CapitoNatalie Tennant
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote281,820156,360
Percentage62.12%34.47%

County results
Congressional district results
Moore Capito:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Jay Rockefeller
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Shelley Moore Capito
Republican

Elections in West Virginia
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The2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to theUnited States Senate in other states and elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in2006,2008,2010, and2012. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state thatMitt Romney won in the2012 presidential election.

IncumbentDemocratic senatorJay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominatedSecretary of State of West VirginiaNatalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. RepresentativeShelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history.[1]

Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since1956, and their victory in this seat since1942.[2] The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican state delegate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in2008,2010 and2012[6]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Natalie Tennant

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Sheirl
Fletcher
David
Harless
Natalie
Tennant
David
Wamsley
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 2013600± 4%8%3%51%4%34%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ralph
Baxter
Robin
Davis
Nick
Preservati
Natalie
Tennant
OtherUndecided
MBE Research[37]May 1–2, 20132071%12%1%40%38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Robin
Davis
Carte
Goodwin
Nick
Rahall
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling[38]January 21, 2013579± 4.07%17%8%38%37%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Tennant
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticNatalie Tennant104,59877.95%
DemocraticDennis Melton15,81711.79%
DemocraticDavid Wamsley13,77310.26%
Total votes134,188100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Rick LeMasters, retiredMarine officer and state employee[5][6]
  • Pat McGeehan, former state delegate and former Air Force Intelligence officer and captain (running for House of Delegates)[41]
  • Scott Regan, Democratic candidate for the state senate in 2010[5][6]
  • Edwin Vanover, formerBramwell Police Chief and Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in 2012[6][42]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Shelley Moore Capito

Politicians

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Shelley
Moore Capito
Rick
Lemasters
Pat
McGeehan
Patrick
Morrisey
Scott
Regan
Edwin
Vanover
Undecided
Harper Polling[38]January 21, 2013462± 4.56%73%10%18%
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 2013348± 5.3%72%5%4%1%2%17%
Harper Polling[50]September 24–25, 2013354± 5.21%77%7%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Shelley
Moore Capito
Someone more
conservative
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 2013348± 5.3%65%21%14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Shelley
Moore Capito
David
McKinley
Undecided
Harper Polling[38]January 21, 2013462± 4.56%70.5%14.75%14.75%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanShelley Moore Capito74,65587.50%
RepublicanMatthew Dodrill7,0728.29%
RepublicanLarry Butcher3,5954.21%
Total votes85,322100.00%

Independents and third parties

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 inCharleston.[55]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[56]Likely R(flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57]Safe R(flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[58]Safe R(flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[59]Likely R(flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Natalie
Tennant (D)
Shelley Moore
Capito (R)
OtherUndecided
West Virginia Poll[60]August 15–22, 2013400± 4.9%40%45%15%
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%36%50%14%
Harper Polling[50]September 24–25, 2013640± 3.87%34%51%15%
Clarity Campaigns[61]January 29–30, 20141,727± 2.35%39%45%16%
Rasmussen Reports[62]February 19–20, 2014500± 4.5%35%49%4%12%
Vox Populi Polling[63]April 16–17, 2014571± 4.1%33%49%19%
Rasmussen Reports[62]May 14–15, 2014750± 4%39%48%5%9%
West Virginia Poll[64]May 19–22, 2014400± 4.9%38%49%13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65]July 5–24, 20141,750± 2.7%40%47%1%11%
Rasmussen Reports[62]August 19–20, 2014750± 4%33%50%17%
West Virginia Poll[66]August 15–23, 2014401± 4.9%37%54%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[67]August 18 – September 2, 20141,284± 4%32%55%1%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68]September 20 – October 1, 20141,066± 4%33%56%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports[62]September 30 – October 1, 2014750± 4%39%50%3%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68]October 16–23, 2014877± 5%34%56%0%10%
Hypothetical polling

With Davis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Robin
Davis (D)
Shelley Moore
Capito (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling[69]January 21, 20131,444± 2.58%24%51%25%
MBE Research[37]May 1–2, 2013406± 4.87%32%51%18%

With Fletcher

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Sheirl
Fletcher (D)
Shelley Moore
Capito (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%26%54%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Sheirl
Fletcher (D)
Pat
McGeehan (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%24%27%48%

With Goodwin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Shelley Moore
Capito (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling[69]January 21, 20131,444± 2.58%19%53%28%

With Rahall

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nick
Rahall (D)
Shelley Moore
Capito (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling[69]January 21, 20131,444± 2.58%32%50%18%

With Rockefeller

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Rockefeller (D)
Shelley Moore
Capito (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[70]September 30 – October 2, 2011932± 3.2%44%48%7%
Repass & Partners[71]August 22–25, 2012401± 4.9%44%48%8%

With Tennant

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Natalie
Tennant (D)
Pat
McGeehan (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%42%32%26%

Results

[edit]
2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia[72]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanShelley Moore Capito281,82062.12%+25.86%
DemocraticNatalie Tennant156,36034.47%−29.27%
LibertarianJohn Buckley7,4091.63%N/A
MountainBob Henry Baber5,5041.21%N/A
ConstitutionPhil Hudok2,5660.57%N/A
Total votes453,659100.00%N/A
Republicangain fromDemocratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Moore Capito won all three congressional districts.[73]

DistrictTennantMoore CapitoRepresentative
1st33.92%62.19%David McKinley
2nd33.72%63.13%Alex Mooney
3rd35.86%60.94%Evan Jenkins

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Ostermeier, Eric (September 17, 2013)."West Virginia 2014 US Senate Race to Feature Rare Matchup".Smart Politics.
  2. ^"Republican Shelley Moore Capito Wins Senate Seat in WV".ABC News. November 4, 2014.
  3. ^abcBoucher, Dave (January 25, 2014)."No surprises in U.S. Senate race".Charleston Gazette-Mail. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2014.
  4. ^Boucher, Dave (September 15, 2013)."Confirmed: Tennant announces Senate run Tuesday".Charleston Daily Mail. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  5. ^abcdeMessina, Lawrence (July 14, 2013)."2014 field growing in W.Va. federal races".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on July 25, 2013. RetrievedJuly 25, 2012.
  6. ^abcd"Candidate listing by office".West Virginia Secretary of State. February 16, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2014.
  7. ^"Preservati out of Senate race". WV Metro News. June 3, 2013. RetrievedJune 4, 2013.
  8. ^Ry Rivard [@ryrivard] (November 27, 2012)."Fmr WV D Chair & #WV02 candidate Mike Callaghan (in email my inbox ate Monday) = interested in Senate if Jay doesn't run & House if Jay does" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  9. ^"West Virginia: Caperton Says He Is Not Interested in Senate Seat". Roll Call. January 15, 2013. Archived fromthe original on January 27, 2013. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2013.
  10. ^Boucher, Dave (April 30, 2013)."Nick Casey launches 2014 US House run".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on May 7, 2013. RetrievedMay 12, 2013.
  11. ^"Another Democrat passes on West Virginia Senate race".Washington Post. July 17, 2013. RetrievedJuly 17, 2013.
  12. ^Ali, Ann (November 8, 2013)."WV Auditor Glen Gainer announces run for Congress".State Journal. Archived fromthe original on December 17, 2013. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  13. ^Kercheval, Hoppy (February 19, 2013)."2014 U.S. Senate race update". WVMetroNews.com. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2013.
  14. ^Wilson, Reid (February 20, 2013)."Carte Goodwin out for 2014". WVMetroNews.com. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2013.
  15. ^ab"Nationwide, Republicans' Congressional Prospects Looking Bright for 2014". Sunshine State News. January 12, 2013.Archived from the original on January 14, 2013. RetrievedMay 5, 2013.
  16. ^abLivingston, Abby (January 11, 2013)."West Virginia: Democrats Begin Positioning to Run for Rockefeller's Seat".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on January 13, 2013. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2013.
  17. ^abcdefgNyden, Paul J. (September 17, 2013)."Tennant announces run for Senate".The Charleston Gazette. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  18. ^Harold, Zack (June 3, 2013)."Preservati Out of the 2014 U.S. Senate Race".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2013. RetrievedJune 26, 2013.
  19. ^Livingston, Abby (April 30, 2013)."Rahall Forgoes Senate Run".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on May 3, 2013. RetrievedMay 1, 2013.
  20. ^"West Virginia Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller won't run in 2014 - John Bresnahan". Politico.com. January 11, 2013. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2013.
  21. ^"Allen Tackett not running for Jay Rockefeller's US Senate seat".Charleston Daily Mail. July 29, 2013. Archived fromthe original on August 1, 2013. RetrievedJuly 29, 2013.
  22. ^ab"Rockefeller to retire, giving GOP a prime pickup opportunity".The Hill. January 11, 2013. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2013.
  23. ^"West Virginia Senate: Democrats Look for Winner". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. January 15, 2013. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2013.
  24. ^"State Sen. Erik Wells says he won't run for Congress".Charleston Daily Mail. April 26, 2013. Archived fromthe original on May 15, 2013. RetrievedJuly 17, 2013.
  25. ^abMattise, Jonathan (June 23, 2014)."Sen. Elizabeth Warren to campaign for Tennant in W.V".The Charleston Gazette. Archived fromthe original on September 18, 2014. RetrievedJune 23, 2014.
  26. ^Boucher, Dave (November 19, 2013)."Michelle Obama backs Natalie Tennant in US Senate race".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on December 12, 2013. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  27. ^Harold, Zack (November 26, 2013)."Tennant, Gainer, Rahall get early endorsements from AFT".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on December 12, 2013. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  28. ^"Natalie Tennant (D-WV) for Senate".Council for a Livable World. Archived fromthe original on December 16, 2013. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  29. ^"Natalie Tennant".Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Archived fromthe original on June 22, 2014. RetrievedJune 12, 2014.
  30. ^Jaffe, Alexandra (September 26, 2013)."EMILY's List endorses Tennant for W.Va. Senate".The Hill. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  31. ^"The IADLC is proud to officially endorse..." Facebook. November 19, 2013. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  32. ^Cama, Timothy (September 2, 2014)."Miners union backs Dem in W.Va. Senate race".The Hill. RetrievedSeptember 23, 2015.
  33. ^"2014 Primary Election COPE Endorsements"(PDF). West Virginia AFL-CIO. 2014. RetrievedJune 12, 2014.[permanent dead link]
  34. ^ab"ICYMI: WEST VIRGINIA'S LARGEST NEWSPAPER ENDORSES TENNANT"(PDF).West Virginia Democrats. April 21, 2014. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on June 17, 2014. RetrievedJune 11, 2014.
  35. ^"Natalie Tennant U.S. Senate, WV". Women's Political Committee. 2014. RetrievedJune 12, 2014.[permanent dead link]
  36. ^abcdefgPublic Policy Polling
  37. ^abMBE Research
  38. ^abcHarper PollingArchived February 10, 2013, at theWayback Machine
  39. ^ab"Statewide Results Primary Election - May 13, 2014 ★★★ Official Results ★★★". West Virginia Secretary of State. RetrievedJuly 17, 2014.
  40. ^"Capito Will Challenge Rockefeller". Politicalwire.com. November 25, 2012. Archived fromthe original on November 29, 2012. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2013.
  41. ^"Elections - Candidate Detail". West Virginia Secretary of State. January 25, 2014. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2014.
  42. ^Johnson, Shauna (August 10, 2013)."Tennant for U.S. Senate?".West Virginia MetroNews. RetrievedAugust 12, 2013.
  43. ^"Former candidate Maloney not running for anything, launches think tank".The Charleston Gazette. May 30, 2013.Archived from the original on February 4, 2016. RetrievedAugust 28, 2013.
  44. ^Livingston, Abby (February 25, 2013)."West Virginia: McKinley Opts Not to Run Against Capito".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on March 3, 2013. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2013.
  45. ^"Capito Gets an Early Start on 2014 W.Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com. November 26, 2012. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2013.
  46. ^abTwitter / CapitoforWV: Great to see County Commissioner
  47. ^[1]Archived October 24, 2014, at theWayback Machine
  48. ^abcdefghijklm"Endorsements for Shelley Moore Capito - Capito for Senate". Archived fromthe original on October 24, 2014. RetrievedAugust 28, 2013.
  49. ^Donald J. Trump [@realDonaldTrump] (July 30, 2014)."It's time for Mountain State to have a Senator who will stop Obama's war on coal. This November send DC a message, vote for @CapitoforWV!" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  50. ^abHarper Polling
  51. ^"Mountain Party candidate makes 4 in Senate race".The Charleston Gazette. July 31, 2014.Archived from the original on August 10, 2014. RetrievedAugust 2, 2014.
  52. ^Cardosi, Mandi (June 12, 2014)."5 questions with Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate John Buckley".State Journal. Archived fromthe original on July 15, 2014. RetrievedJune 14, 2014.
  53. ^Winger, Richard (August 22, 2014)."West Virginia Secretary of State Says Constitution Party Petition for U.S. Senate is Valid".Ballot Access News.Archived from the original on September 3, 2014. RetrievedAugust 28, 2014.
  54. ^Boucher, Dave (April 25, 2013)."Former TV anchor to run for Senate".Charleston Daily Mail. Archived fromthe original on April 29, 2013. RetrievedMay 12, 2013.
    "Facebook profile".Facebook.
  55. ^"Capito, Tennant, others to debate in October".West Virginia MetroNews. August 14, 2014. RetrievedAugust 14, 2014.
  56. ^"2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  57. ^"The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  58. ^"2014 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  59. ^"2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  60. ^West Virginia Poll
  61. ^Clarity CampaignsArchived February 23, 2014, at theWayback Machine
  62. ^abcdRasmussen Reports
  63. ^Vox Populi Polling
  64. ^West Virginia Poll
  65. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  66. ^West Virginia PollArchived August 31, 2014, at theWayback Machine
  67. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  68. ^abCBS News/NYT/YouGov
  69. ^abcHarper Polling
  70. ^Public Policy Polling
  71. ^Repass & Partners
  72. ^"WV SOS - Elections - Election Results - Online Data Services".services.sos.wv.gov. Archived fromthe original on November 7, 2017. RetrievedDecember 17, 2014.
  73. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.

External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites (archived)

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ratings
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