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2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election

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2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
← 2010
November 4, 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeGina RaimondoAllan FungRobert J. Healey
PartyDemocraticRepublicanModerate
Popular vote131,899117,42869,278
Percentage40.70%36.24%21.38%
County results
Municipality results
Precinct results
Raimondo:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fung:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Healey:     30–40%     40–50%
Tie:     No Votes:     
Governor before election

Lincoln Chafee
Democratic

ElectedGovernor

Gina Raimondo
Democratic

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The2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect thegovernor of Rhode Island, concurrently withthe election of Rhode Island'sClass II U.S. Senate seat, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate andlocal elections.

IncumbentDemocratic governorLincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominatedRhode Island TreasurerGina Raimondo and the Republicans nominatedCranston MayorAllan Fung. Also on the ballot wereRobert J. Healey of theModerate Party and twoIndependent candidates.

Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor sinceBruce Sundlun in1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independentin 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history. Democrats won Newport County for the first time in a gubernatorial election since 1998, and Bristol and Washington counties since 1992.

Background

[edit]

In the2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbentDonald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessmanJohn Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State TreasurerFrank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election wereModerate Party nomineeKen Block andLincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-electionin 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat.[1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013, that he would not run for re-election.[2][3] Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, afterByron Diman in 1847,Royal C. Taft in 1889 andWilliam S. Flynn in 1924.[4]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support forcharter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras wonCentral Falls and Pell wonBurrillville andFoster.[5]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Giroux		Clay
Pell		Gina
Raimondo		Angel
Taveras		Other/
Undecided
Fleming & Associates[14]August 11–14, 2014503± 4.38%1.4%25.6%32.2%26.8%12.9%
Fleming & Associates[15]May 27–30, 2014506± 4.38%1.6%11.5%29.2%33.4%24.3%
Brown University[16]April 3–5, 2014395± 4.9%—9.6%29.4%25.8%35.2%
Fleming & Associates[17]February 3–6, 2014503± 4.38%1.2%14.7%27%31.2%25.9%
Brown University[18]October 2–5, 2013433± 4.5%——42%33.6%24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^[19]September 10–12, 2013400± 5%——30%49%21%
  • ^ Internal poll for the Angel Taveras Campaign
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee		Ernie
Almonte		Gina
Raimondo		Angel
Taveras		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013320± 5.5%22%11%35%19%12%
—9%44%35%13%

Results

[edit]
Results by municipality:
Raimondo
  •   Raimondo—30–40%
  •   Raimondo—40–50%
  •   Raimondo—50–60%
  •   Raimondo—60–70%
Pell
  •   Pell—30–40%
  •   Pell—40–50%
Taveras
  •   Taveras—50–60%
Democratic primary results[21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticGina Raimondo53,99042.15
DemocraticAngel Taveras37,32629.14
DemocraticClay Pell34,51526.94
DemocraticTodd Giroux2,2641.77
Total votes128,095100.00

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Block		Allan
Fung		Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.*[28]April 2014300± ?46%37%17%
Brown University[16]April 3–5, 201486± 10.6%36%31.4%38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.*[28]October 2013?± ?25%53%22%
  • * Internal poll for the Ken Block campaign

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Fung—50–60%
  Block—50–60%
Results by county
Results by municipality
Fung
  •   Fung—50–60%
  •   Fung—60–70%
  •   Fung—70–80%
Block
  •   Block—50–60%
  •   Block—60–70%
Results by municipality
Republican primary results[21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanAllan Fung17,53054.9
RepublicanKen Block14,39945.1
Total votes31,929100.0

Other parties

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for governorin 2010 (switched to Republican primary)[22]
  • James Spooner (Moderate)[31]

Removed from ballot

[edit]
  • Thomas Davis (Independent)
  • Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
  • Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Declined

[edit]
  • Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary)[32]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%.[33] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received.[34] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race."[35]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[36]TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37]Lean DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[38]Tilt DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[39]TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Robert J.
Healey (M)		OtherUndecided
Brown University[40]October 25–26, 2014500± 4.4%40%39%13%1%[41]11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[42]October 16–23, 2014866± 6%40%35%—4%21%
Brown University[43]October 14–17, 20141,129± 2.9%42%31%9%1%[44]18%
Fleming & Associates[45]October 6–9, 2014505± 4%42%36%8%1%[46]14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[47]September 20–October 1, 2014724± 4%41%38%—2%19%
Rasmussen Reports[48]September 23–25, 2014750± 4%42%37%—11%11%
Public Opinion Strategies*[49]September 10–11, 2014500± 4.38%42%42%——16%
Brown University[18]October 2–5, 2013638± 3.9%38%36%——27%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%46%27%—12%[50]14%
  • * Internal poll for the Allan Fung campaign
Hypothetical polling

With Raimondo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%44%32%10%14%

With Taveras

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Angel
Taveras (D)		Ken
Block (R)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[51]July 5–24, 2014919± 3.4%49%24%15%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Angel
Taveras (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%39%35%13%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Angel
Taveras (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[52]August 18–September 2, 2014764± 4%33%33%—20%14%
Brown University[18]October 2–5, 2013638± 3.9%42%33%——26%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%37%31%15%—17%

With Chafee

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%35%39%13%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%32%36%16%15%

Four-way race

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%22%32%28%8%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%21%35%23%10%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Angel
Taveras (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%23%26%31%10%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Angel
Taveras (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]January 28–30, 2013614± 4%20%26%26%13%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Angel
Taveras (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Brown University[18]October 2–5, 2013638± 4.5%27%21%19%9%24%

Results

[edit]
Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014[53]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticGina Raimondo131,89940.70%+17.65%
RepublicanAllan Fung117,42836.24%+2.67%
ModerateRobert J. Healey69,27821.38%+14.91%
IndependentKate Fletcher3,4831.07%N/A
IndependentLeon Kayarian1,2280.38%N/A
Write-in7390.23%N/A
Turnout324,055100%N/A
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
Gina Raimondo
Democratic		Allan Fung
Republican		Robert J. Healey
Moderate		OthersTotal
CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Bristol7,31239.88%4,80626.21%6,06033.05%1580.86%18,336
Kent20,17634.19%23,00938.99%14,93725.31%8931.51%59,015
Newport12,88843.74%10,12234.35%5,89820.01%5601.90%29,468
Providence73,26243.16%61,51936.24%32,08618.90%2,8831.70%169,750
Washington18,26138.46%17,97237.85%10,29721.68%9562.01%47,486

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

By municipality

[edit]
Gina Raimondo
Democratic		Allan Fung
Republican		Robert J. Healey
Moderate		OthersTotal
MunicipalityVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Barrington3,56649.6%2,02228.1%1,55421.6%500.7%7,192
Bristol2,62835.7%1,95926.6%2,70936.8%751.0%7,368
Burrillville1,33428.6%1,86139.9%1,37129.4%1042.2%4,670
Central Falls1,35966.4%35817.5%28013.7%502.4%2,047
Charlestown1,17738.0%1,13736.7%72823.5%591.9%3,101
Coventry3,81230.2%4,97939.4%3,61028.6%2331.8%12,634
Cranston8,15930.2%14,85355.0%3,71613.8%2781.0%27,006
Cumberland4,66139.9%4,32537.0%2,47821.2%2201.9%11,684
East Greenwich2,36442.3%2,31541.4%84815.2%651.2%5,592
East Providence5,95843.5%3,71827.1%3,80427.8%2251.6%13,705
Exeter77128.4%1,14742.3%74227.3%532.0%2,713
Foster53428.0%73238.3%60431.6%402.1%1,910
Glocester96327.2%1,50342.5%1,01928.8%551.5%3,540
Hopkinton83630.9%1,08039.9%72326.7%682.3%2,707
Jamestown1,32546.2%90131.4%59020.6%631.9%2,879
Johnston3,27032.6%4,50244.9%2,12621.2%1341.5%10,032
Lincoln2,97436.2%3,24939.6%1,87022.8%1191.4%8,212
Little Compton67441.2%64839.7%28817.6%221.4%1,632
Middletown2,24141.9%1,90235.5%1,09020.4%1192.3%5,352
Narragansett2,39539.3%2,41039.6%1,19819.7%841.4%6,087
New Shoreham36550.3%17424.0%17323.8%141.9%726
Newport3,73449.4%2,31230.6%1,33117.6%1772.3%7,554
North Kingstown4,16637.6%4,30538.8%2,42221.8%1951.7%11,088
North Providence4,01336.1%4,50540.6%2,41421.7%1701.6%11,102
North Smithfield1,45633.2%1,87042.7%98622.5%681.6%4,380
Pawtucket7,14451.8%3,39124.6%2,96021.5%2842.1%13,779
Portsmouth2,82441.1%2,47736.1%1,42620.8%1362.0%6,863
Providence24,66265.0%8,44522.3%4,11610.8%7201.9%37,943
Richmond85129.5%1,15340.0%82528.6%531.8%2,882
Scituate1,17025.5%2,20348.1%1,14625.0%631.3%4,582
Smithfield2,58733.7%3,24142.2%1,72522.5%1191.6%7,672
South Kingstown4,60643.1%3,56233.3%2,29121.4%2332.2%10,692
Tiverton2,09039.8%1,88235.9%1,17322.4%1032.0%5,248
Warren1,11829.6%82521.9%1,79747.6%330.9%3,773
Warwick10,55935.0%11,38337.7%7,79525.8%4281.4%30,165
West Greenwich60525.0%1,09745.3%68428.3%331.3%2,419
West Warwick2,83634.6%3,23539.4%2,00024.4%1341.6%8,205
Westerly3,09441.3%3,00440.1%1,19516.0%1972.6%7,490
Woonsocket3,01840.6%2,76337.2%1,47119.8%1822.4%7,434

References

[edit]
  1. ^Klepper, David (December 14, 2012)."RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem".Boston.com.Associated Press. RetrievedDecember 18, 2012.
  2. ^Sullivan, Sean (September 4, 2013)."Why Lincoln Chafee's decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats".The Washington Post. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2013.
  3. ^abTaylor, Jessica (September 4, 2013)."Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term".NBC News. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2013.
  4. ^Ostermeier, Eric (September 6, 2013)."Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term".Smart Politics. Archived fromthe original on October 4, 2013. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2013.
  5. ^Stephanie Simon (September 8, 2014)."Dem divisions on display in Rhode Island race".Politico. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2015.
  6. ^Faccenda, Anthony (October 4, 2013)."The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare".GoLocalProv. RetrievedOctober 20, 2013.
  7. ^The Associated Press (January 27, 2014)."Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov".POLITICO. RetrievedJanuary 27, 2014.
  8. ^Nesi, Ted (December 18, 2013)."Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor".WPRI-TV. Archived fromthe original on December 22, 2013. RetrievedDecember 18, 2013.
  9. ^Gregg, Katherine (October 26, 2013)."Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor".The Providence Journal. RetrievedOctober 28, 2013.
  10. ^abDeQuattro, Dee (April 30, 2013)."Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor".ABC 6. Archived fromthe original on May 7, 2013. RetrievedMay 1, 2013.
  11. ^Nesi, Ted (May 16, 2013)."Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer".WPRI. Archived fromthe original on June 13, 2013. RetrievedMay 17, 2013.
  12. ^Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge ChafeeArchived May 15, 2013, at theWayback Machine
  13. ^"Former Congressman Bob Weygand mulling run for governor - WPRI.com Blogs". Archived fromthe original on September 12, 2014. RetrievedSeptember 12, 2014.
  14. ^"Fleming & Associates". Archived fromthe original on August 20, 2014. RetrievedAugust 21, 2014.
  15. ^Fleming & Associates
  16. ^abBrown University
  17. ^Fleming & Associates
  18. ^abcdBrown University
  19. ^"Garin-Hart-Yang^". Archived fromthe original on March 6, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2017.
  20. ^abcdefghijkPublic Policy Polling
  21. ^ab"2014 Statewide Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2014.
  22. ^abGregg, Katherine (October 28, 2013)."Ken Block, Moderate Party's 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014".The Providence Journal. RetrievedOctober 28, 2013.
  23. ^Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013)."Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor".Woonsocket Patch. Archived fromthe original on November 5, 2013. RetrievedNovember 4, 2013.
  24. ^Nesi, Ted (July 12, 2013)."Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14".WPRI-TV. Archived fromthe original on July 15, 2013. RetrievedAugust 10, 2013.
  25. ^Kalunian, Kim (May 17, 2013)."NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014". Archived fromthe original on October 29, 2013. RetrievedMay 20, 2013.
  26. ^"Dan McGowan on Twitter: "Barry Hinckley tells me he has no interest in running for Governor. Clears field for @peterbaptista"". RetrievedSeptember 12, 2014.
  27. ^"Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor".NBC 10.Associated Press. October 18, 2013. Archived fromthe original on October 26, 2013. RetrievedOctober 20, 2013.
  28. ^abFabrizio, Lee & Ass. *
  29. ^Towne, Shaun (September 12, 2014)."Moderate candidate Healey could impact governor's race".WPRI. Archived fromthe original on September 14, 2014. RetrievedSeptember 14, 2014.
  30. ^ab"12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race".NBC 10 News. June 25, 2014. RetrievedJune 26, 2014.
  31. ^Katherine Gregg (September 15, 2014)."R.I. GOP challenges Healey as Moderate Party's 11th-hour candidate for governor". Providence Journal. RetrievedSeptember 24, 2014.
  32. ^Nesi, Ted (October 26, 2013)."The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI".WPRI. Archived fromthe original on October 28, 2013. RetrievedOctober 29, 2013.
  33. ^"Pension Cuts Cost Democrat Union Support in Rhode Island". Wall Street Journal. October 28, 2014. RetrievedNovember 7, 2014.
  34. ^"Bob Healey spent $0.0005 for every vote he got". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Archived fromthe original on November 7, 2014. RetrievedNovember 7, 2014.
  35. ^"Healey: It's amazing what $35 can do". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Archived fromthe original on November 7, 2014. RetrievedNovember 7, 2014.
  36. ^"2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  37. ^"The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  38. ^"2014 Gubernatorial Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  39. ^"2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  40. ^Brown University
  41. ^Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  42. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  43. ^Brown University
  44. ^Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1%
  45. ^Fleming & Associates
  46. ^Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  47. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  48. ^Rasmussen Reports
  49. ^"Public Opinion Strategies*". Archived fromthe original on September 17, 2014. RetrievedSeptember 17, 2014.
  50. ^Ken Block (I)
  51. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  52. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  53. ^RI.gov: Election Results

External links

[edit]

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