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2013 Virginia gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2013 United States gubernatorial elections.

2013 Virginia gubernatorial election

← 2009November 5, 20132017 →
Turnout43.0%Increase 2.6[1]
 
NomineeTerry McAuliffeKen CuccinelliRobert Sarvis
PartyDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
Popular vote1,069,7891,013,354146,084
Percentage47.75%45.23%6.52%

County and independent city results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
McAuliffe:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Cuccinelli:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes

Governor before election

Bob McDonnell
Republican

Elected Governor

Terry McAuliffe
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Commonwealth's Attorney

The2013 Virginia gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2013, to elect thegovernor of Virginia. The incumbent governor,RepublicanBob McDonnell, was not eligible to run for re-election due toterm limits established by theVirginia Constitution.Virginia is the only state that prohibits its governor from serving immediate successive terms. This was the 5th consecutive election in which the Republican nominee was anAttorney General of Virginia.

Three candidates appeared on the ballot for Governor:RepublicanKen Cuccinelli, theAttorney General of Virginia;DemocratTerry McAuliffe, a businessman and the former chairman of theDemocratic National Committee; andLibertarianRobert Sarvis, a lawyer and businessman.[2]

McAuliffe won the election and was sworn in as governor on January 11, 2014.[3] This was the only Virginia gubernatorial election since1965 in which no candidate won an outright majority of the vote.[4] This would be the first Virginia gubernatorial election in which that the town of Bedford would become part of Bedford County instead of being an Independent city.[5]

As of 2025, this remains the onlygubernatorial election since1973 in which the elected governor belonged to the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.[6]

Candidates

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]
Main article:2013 Republican Party of Virginia convention

Lieutenant GovernorBill Bolling, elected to the post in 2005, made a deal with McDonnell whereby Bolling would run for re-election as lieutenant governor in2009, enabling McDonnell to run for governor without a primary, in exchange for McDonnell's support in 2013. After the 2009 election, Bolling made no secret of his intention to run for governor in 2013, whileAttorney General of VirginiaKen Cuccinelli openly stated that he was considering three options: a run for re-election as attorney general in 2013, running for the U.S. Senate in 2014, and running for governor in 2013.[7] Cuccinelli announced to colleagues on December 1, 2011, that he was indeed running for governor.[8] Bolling responded on the same day that he was disappointed that Cuccinelli decided to challenge him.[9]

Bolling, who was polling poorly against Cuccinelli, withdrew from the race on November 28, 2012. He cited the Republican Party's decision to move to a nominating convention rather than hold a primary. He ruled out running for another term as lieutenant governor and refused to endorse Cuccinelli.[10] Bolling considered running as an independent, but decided against it.[11] Bolling also rejected the possibility of awrite-in campaign.[12]

Nominee

[edit]

Cuccinelli became thede facto nominee after being the only candidate to file to run by the deadline, and was formally nominated at thestate Republican convention on May 18, 2013.[14]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Bolling
Ken
Cuccinelli
Undecided
Quinnipiac[19]May 30 – June 4, 2012549± 4.2%15%51%31%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012400± 4.9%23%51%22%
Roanoke College[21]February 13–28, 2012377± 5%18%37%44%
Public Policy Polling[22]December 11–13, 2011350± 5.2%25%44%31%
Public Policy Polling[23]July 21–24, 2011400± 4.9%21%45%34%

Democratic Party

[edit]
McAuliffe campaigning in May 2013

Nominee

[edit]

On April 2, 2013, theDemocratic Party of Virginia certified that McAuliffe was the only candidate to file for the June primary and therefore the Democratic nominee.[25]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

On April 21, 2013, theLibertarian Party of Virginia held a special convention[32] and nominated Sarvis as the party's official gubernatorial candidate.[33]

Sarvis' campaign submitted over 17,000 signatures to meet theVirginia State Board of Elections (SBE) requirement of 10,000 valid signatures.[34] On June 26, 2013, the SBE confirmed to Sarvis' campaign that he would be listed on the ballot statewide during the elections this November.[35] This made Sarvis the fourth minor party gubernatorial nominee to get on the Virginia ballot in 40 years.[34]

Write-in candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • John Parmele Jr., navy retiree[36]

Parmele announced his campaign as awrite-in candidate in August 2013. Parmele unsuccessfully ran for the Virginia Beach City Council six times.[37] In 2005, he ran as an independent for the 82nd district of theVirginia House of Delegates and lost to incumbentHarry Purkey.[38][39]

Salahi planned to seek the Republican nomination, but left the party to launch an independent bid.[41] However, he failed to submit the necessary signatures to theVirginia State Board of Elections by the June 11, 2013, deadline and did not appear on the ballot as an independent. He transitioned his run into awrite-in campaign and said he would pursue a congressional seat if he didn't win the governorship.[42][43] Salahi also scheduled to have a film document his campaign by Campbell Media Group, but the production company faced legal allegations.[44]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]
Campaign sign for Cuccinelli

Debates and forums

[edit]

Cuccinelli challenged McAuliffe to a series of 15 debates around the state.[45] McAuliffe refused, and called Cuccinelli's challenge "absurd"[46] and a "gimmick".[47] Cuccinelli responded, "McAuliffe's campaign might have dismissed the challenge, but it's clear that community leaders and Virginians share our desire to hold real debates across the Commonwealth."[48]

Both candidates agreed to participate in three debates: July 20, 2013, inHot Springs, sponsored by theVirginia Bar Association; September 25, 2013, inMcLean, sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and broadcast byNBC affiliates throughout Virginia;[49] and a third debate on October 24, 2013, atVirginia Tech.[50]

Cuccinelli declined to appear at the League of Women Voters/AARP debate, calling it a "left-wing, stacked debate".[51] Cuccinelli accepted a debate invitation inDanville for a date in September or October; McAuliffe did not respond.[46]

Sarvis was not invited to the debates or forums; some newspapers, including theRichmond Times Dispatch,The Roanoke Times, andThe Daily Progress, called for his inclusion.[52][53][54][55] Barton Hinkle of theRichmond Times Dispatch called the current debate process "stacked" suggesting that debate organizers are activists trying to influence the outcome of the election for their own ideological purposes.[56] Sarvis said he would "debate anybody anywhere under any conditions."[57]

McAuliffe and his campaign repeatedly declined to give a cost for his spending priorities, stating he would pay for them through unspecified government efficiency improvements, the Medicaid expansion, and federal money fromObamacare.[58] McAuliffe said tax increases would not be on the table to pay for policy proposals.[59] Cuccinelli's 2013 campaign conducted an analysis that found McAuliffe's spending plan would cost at least $14 billion – including $12 billion in new spending – over a four-year term and would translate into a $1,700 tax hike on the average Virginia family.[58][60][61] McAuliffe's campaign accused Cuccinelli's campaign of "fabricat[ing]" the numbers.[62]

Virginia Bar Association debate

[edit]

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe met in their first debate on Saturday, July 20, 2013, atthe Omni Homestead Resort inHot Springs, Virginia, for theVirginia Bar Association-sponsored debate. Both major party candidates attacked their opponent's record, and they debated one another on issues including transportation, federal healthcare, abortion, Virginia GovernorBob McDonnell, same-sex marriage, and other topics.[63][64][65] PBS'Judy Woodruff moderated the debate.[66] Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to join the debate, but he attended the event to greet voters.[52][66][67]

Virginia Farm Bureau forum

[edit]

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe discussed their plans for Virginia's largest industry, agriculture and forest products, on Friday, August 2, 2013, atWytheville Community College inWytheville, Virginia. The candidates also discussed topics including transportation and healthcare. The forum was hosted by theFarm Bureau's Young Farmers Committee. Libertarian Sarvis was not invited.[68][69]

Tidewater Community College forum

[edit]

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe appeared Tuesday, August 6, 2013, at theNorfolk Waterside Marriott inNorfolk, Virginia at an event hosted byTidewater Community College. Democrat McAuliffe argued that improving transportation would spur job creation, and he wanted to reform theStandards of Learning andMedicaid. Republican Cuccinelli focused on tax cuts as well as expanding opportunities for veterans and growing Virginia's ports.[70][71] Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to the event, but a spokesman provided a statement about the libertarian candidate.[72]

"Battleground Forum"

[edit]

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe took the stage again on August 9, 2013, at theHylton Performing Arts Center inManassas, Virginia, hosted by the chambers of commerce from Loudoun, Prince William, Reston and Fredericksburg. Both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe answered a series of questions from representatives from each of the chambers that hosted the forum, and both were called out by the event's moderator for dodging specific questions. The sharpest exchange was between McAuliffe and the forum moderatorDerek McGinty, an anchor onWUSA. McAuliffe declined to take a position on the proposed Bi-County Parkway, a controversial project that would cut throughManassas National Battlefield Park to connectPrince William andLoudoun counties.[73] Libertarian Sarvis attended the event but was not included as a candidate,[74][75] which led some political observers, such as theFranklin Center for Government and Public Integrity's projectwatchdog.org, to say that the number one thing missing from the forum was the invitation to include Sarvis.[76] Four days after moderating the Battleground Forum,WUSA-TV news anchorDerek McGinty said Sarvis should be part of the conversation.[77]

Energy forum in Arlington

[edit]

The Consumer Energy Alliance, the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA), the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, and the Virginia Manufacturers Association co-hosted a forum focused on energy with Cuccinelli and McAuliffe on August 29, 2013. Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to the forum. The event took place at theGeorge Mason University School of Law campus inArlington. Both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe launched broad attacks on one another. Cuccinelli pointed out McAuliffe's inconsistent stances oncoal andoffshore drilling (McAuliffe made anti-coal and anti-offshore drilling statements during his 2009 campaign but has attempted to take a more centrist position in 2013).[78] Cuccinelli also pointed to the GreenTech scandal enveloping McAuliffe.[78] McAuliffe offered few specifics on his own energy policy plans but attacked Cuccinelli for his lawsuit of aVirginia Tech professor and expert onglobal warming whom he investigated for fraud, and said Cuccinelli's views on social issues would drive away businesses.[78][79][80][81]

Fairfax County debate

[edit]

TheFairfax County Chamber of Commerce andNBC4 hosted a debate between Cuccinelli and McAuliffe on September 25, 2013. NBC political journalistChuck Todd moderated. The debate was held at the Capital One Bank headquarters inMcLean, Virginia, and was aired live on NBC4 and NBC affiliates in Richmond, Charlottesville, Bristol and other Virginia cities.[82] Throughout the debate, both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli attacked their opponent's records and views. McAuliffe focused on Medicaid expansion, failed to answer a question about the price tag of his education plan, and was exposed for not knowing that a state constitutional amendment is required to reverse the state's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. Cuccinelli focused on his experience in office, defended his social views, and dodged a question about which loopholes he would close. After the debate, the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce endorsed McAuliffe.[83]

A spokesman said the debate would exclude Sarvis for "no other reason other than our tradition to provide a forum for the two major-party candidates."[84] Sarvis attended the debate and his campaign debuted a television ad, which aired in Northern Virginia.[85][86][87] The Sarvis ad caused Peter Galuszka ofThe Washington Post to say Sarvis "won" the debate.[88] Five days after the debate moderatorChuck Todd invited Sarvis onto his show,The Daily Rundown, and asked Sarvis questions from the debate.[89]

Virginia Tech debate

[edit]

Virginia Tech andWDBJ sponsored a debate between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli on October 24, 2013.

Prior to the debate, Cuccinelli agreed informally to participate, though his campaign asked questions about the rules, including to raise the threshold for a third-party candidate to participate, before formally agreeing. McAuliffe also agreed to the rules.[90] Originally, the announced threshold for inclusion in the debate was ten percent in the polls.[84][90][91][92][93] Later, it would be announced the threshold for inclusion in the debate was ten percent according to theRealClearPolitics average by the October 10 invitation deadline. On October 10, Sarvis was polling at 9% in the RealClearPolitics average, and WDBJ announced that Sarvis would not be included at the debate.[94] Sarvis responded that the debate rules were "designed to exclude."[95][96]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports through November 28, 2013
CandidateSpentVotesCost per Vote
Terry McAuliffe$38,003,8361,069,789$35.52
Ken Cuccinelli$20,942,4961,013,354$20.67
Robert Sarvis$213,781146,084$1.46
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[97][98][99][100]

McAuliffe's funds include $5.7 million from theDemocratic Governors AssociationPAC; $950,000 from the VirginiaLeague of Conservation Voters; over $294,000 he donated to himself; $250,000 fromBaltimore Orioles ownerPeter Angelos; $120,000 from the Liberian International Ship & Corporate Registry; $100,005 from his father-in-law, Richard Swann; and $100,000 from Bill Clinton.[101] Cuccinelli's funds include $3.97 million from theRepublican Governors Association PAC and $500,000 from theRepublican Party of Virginia[102] McAuliffe has received 34 contributions of $100,000 or more;[101] Cuccinelli has received six contributions of $100,000 or more.[102]

72% of McAuliffe's campaign contributors are from Virginia, but in the first quarter of 2013, 78% of his total funds came from donors from outside Virginia.[103] 33% of Cuccinelli's funds in the first quarter of 2013 came from donors outside Virginia.[103]

Through the first quarter of 2013 ending on March 31, 2013, McAuliffe had raised $6.7 million, and Cuccinelli had raised $4.4 million.[104]

In the second quarter of 2013, McAuliffe raised $2.2 million, Cuccinelli raised $1.1 million, and Sarvis raised approximately $2,500. Terry McAuliffe's top five donors are from outside Virginia.[98] Three of Ken Cuccinelli's top five donors are from out-of-state.[99]

From July 1, 2013, through August 31, 2013, McAuliffe raised $7,355,246; and Cuccinelli raised $5,688,222.[105] Over that period, McAuliffe received 2,010 contributions of more than $100, and 5,476 contributions of $100 or less;[106] while Cuccinelli received 3,193 contributions of more than $100, and 7,075 contributions of $100 or less.[107] During the same period, McAuliffe's biggest donations included the DGA ($2.7 million); the VirginiaLeague of Conservation Voters ($900,000); theAmerican Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees ($100,000);Laborers' International Union of North America Education Fund ($100,000); and theUnited Food and Commercial Workers Active Ballot Club Education Fund ($100,000).[108] Cuccinelli's biggest donations included several energy companies and private individuals; his largest contribution over the period was $30,000.[109] As of August 31, 2013, McAuliffe's campaign has $5,010,223 cash on hand, and Cuccinelli's campaign has $2,234,369 cash on hand.

Spending by outside groups

[edit]

Tom Steyer's PACNextGen Climate Action,Michael Bloomberg's PAC Independence USA, theNational Education Association and thePlanned Parenthood Action Fund have purchased a combined total of over $4.3 million worth of airtime for television ads supporting McAuliffe or opposing Cuccinelli.[110][111]Americans for Prosperity,Citizens United, the Virginia Principles Fund PAC,NRA Political Victory Fund, theEnding Spending Fund, and the Fight for Tomorrow PAC have purchased a combined total of just over $2 million worth of airtime for television ads supporting Cuccinelli or opposing McAuliffe.[110] Purple PAC, a Libertarian-leaning super PAC, spent over $300,000 in television ads designed to boost the Sarvis campaign before election day.[112]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ken Cuccinelli

Elected officials

Others

Organizations

Newspapers

Terry McAuliffe

Current and former statewide politicians

Current and former state-level politicians

National politicians

Others

Organizations

Newspapers

Robert Sarvis

Elected officials

Others

Newspapers

Declined to endorse

Elected officials

Newspapers

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Rothenberg Political Report[163]Lean D(flip)October 25, 2013
Sabato's Crystal Ball[164]Likely D(flip)October 24, 2013

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Ken
Cuccinelli (R)
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Robert
Sarvis (L)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[165]October 24 – November 3, 2013November 3, 201338.9%45.6%9.6%5.9%McAuliffe +6.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Cuccinelli (R)
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Robert
Sarvis (L)
OtherUndecided
Newsmax/Zogby[166]November 2–4, 2013600± 4.1%31%43%12%4%11%
Public Policy Polling[167]November 2–3, 2013870± 3.3%43%50%4%3%
Quinnipiac[168]October 29 – November 3, 20131,606± 2.5%40%46%8%5%
42%49%1%8%
Newsmax/Zogby[169]October 30 – November 1, 2013600± 4.1%36%43%9%3%9%
Emerson College[170]October 25–30, 2013874± 3.24%40%42%13%5%
Christopher Newport University[171]October 25–30, 20131,038± 3%38%45%10%7%
Rasmussen[172]October 28–29, 20131,002± 3%36%43%12%2%7%
Quinnipiac[173]October 22–28, 20131,182± 2.9%41%45%9%1%4%
45%47%2%7%
Public Policy Polling[174]October 26–27, 2013709EV± 3.6%40%54%4%2%
Hampton University[175]October 24, 26–27, 2013800± 2.9%36%42%12%10%
41%42%17%
Washington Post/Abt SRBI[176]October 24–27, 2013762± 4.5%39%51%8%1%
42%53%5%
Roanoke College[177]October 21–27, 2013838± 3.4%31%46%9%15%
Old Dominion Poll[178]October 22, 2013670± 5%37%44%7%2%11%
Quinnipiac[179]October 15–21, 20131,085± 3%39%46%10%1%4%
42%50%2%7%
Rasmussen[172]October 20, 20131,000± 3%33%50%8%3%5%
Public Policy Polling[180]October 19–20, 2013724EV± 3.6%39%57%3%1%
NBC News/Marist[181]October 13–15, 2013596± 4%38%46%9%1%7%
43%52%1%4%
Christopher Newport University[182]October 8–13, 2013753± 3.6%39%46%11%4%
Quinnipiac[183]October 2–8, 20131,180± 2.9%39%47%8%5%
42%49%1%7%
PPP/Harper Polling[184]October 5–6, 20131,150± 2.9%35%44%12%8%
42%52%5%
Watson Center[185]October 1–6, 2013886± 3.1%38%47%8%7%
Roanoke College[186]September 30 – October 5, 20131,046± 3%34%40%9%16%
Emerson College[187]September 26–30, 2013519± 4.25%38%43%11%8%
Newsmax/Zogby[188]September 27–29, 2013600± 4.1%27%32%13%24%
32%33%11%24%
Hampton University[189]September 25–29, 2013800± 2.9%37%42%8%12%
University of Mary Washington[190]September 25–29, 2013559± 4.7%35%42%10%5%8%
Rasmussen[191]September 23, 20131,050± 3%38%44%6%2%11%
Washington Post/Abt SRBI[192]September 19–22, 2013562± 5%39%47%10%3%
44%49%1%6%
Conquest Communications[193]September 19, 2013400± 5%35%36%11%19%
NBC News/Marist[194]September 17–19, 2013546± 4.2%38%43%8%11%
Harper Polling[195]September 15–16, 2013779± 3.51%37%42%10%11%
Roanoke College[196]September 9–15, 2013874± 3.3%36%37%9%17%
Quinnipiac[197]September 9–15, 20131,005± 3.1%41%44%7%1%6%
Purple Strategies[198]September 6–10, 2013800± 3.5%38%43%19%
Rasmussen[199]September 3–4, 2013998± 3%38%45%7%10%
Public Policy Polling[200]August 27–28, 2013500± ?37%44%9%9%
Emerson College[201]August 23–28, 2013653± 3.8%35%45%10%11%
Quinnipiac[202]August 14–19, 20131,129± 2.9%42%48%2%9%
Quinnipiac[203]July 11–15, 20131,030± 3.1%39%43%1%17%
Public Policy Polling[204]July 11–14, 2013601± 4%37%41%7%15%
Roanoke College[205]July 8–14, 2013525± 4.3%37%31%5%27%
Rasmussen[206]June 5–6, 20131,000± 3%41%44%3%12%
Public Policy Polling[207]May 24–26, 2013672± 3.8%37%42%21%
Wenzel Strategies[208]May 14–15, 2013800± 3.4%44%36%21%
Quinnipiac[209]May 8–13, 20131,286± 2.7%38%43%1%19%
The Washington Post[210]April 29 – May 2, 20131,000± 3.5%46%41%13%
NBC News/Marist[211]April 28 – May 2, 20131,095± 3%41%43%1%16%
Roanoke College[212]April 8–14, 2013639± 3.9%34%29%38%
Quinnipiac[213]March 20–25, 20131,098± 3%40%38%2%20%
University of Mary Washington[214]March 20–24, 20131,004± 3.5%37%38%25%
Quinnipiac[215]February 14–18, 20131,112± 2.9%38%38%1%23%
Roanoke College[216]January 14–22, 2013583± 4.1%33%26%41%
Christopher Newport University[217]January 14–20, 20131,015± 3.1%30%31%6%33%
Quinnipiac[218]January 4–7, 20131,134± 2.9%39%40%2%19%
Public Policy Polling[219]January 4–6, 2013602± 4%41%46%13%
Quinnipiac[220]November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%37%41%1%22%
Public Policy Polling[221]August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%40%40%20%
Public Policy Polling[222]July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%37%41%22%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%36%41%23%
Public Policy Polling[223]December 10–12, 2011600± 4%41%40%20%
Public Policy Polling[224]July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%41%38%22%
Hypothetical polling

With Bolling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Bolling (R)
Gerry
Connolly (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[223]December 10–12, 2011600± 4%39%36%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Bolling (R)
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[220]November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%36%38%1%25%
Public Policy Polling[221]August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%40%37%23%
Public Policy Polling[222]July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%36%33%31%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%36%34%30%
Public Policy Polling[223]December 10–12, 2011600± 4%39%36%25%
Public Policy Polling[224]July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%38%33%29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Bolling (R)
Tom
Perriello (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[221]August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%39%36%25%
Public Policy Polling[222]July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%38%32%30%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%35%34%31%
Public Policy Polling[223]December 10–12, 2011600± 4%39%35%26%
Public Policy Polling[224]July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%39%32%29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Bolling (R)
Mark
Warner (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[220]November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%33%53%15%
Public Policy Polling[221]August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%36%50%14%
Public Policy Polling[222]July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%35%49%16%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%32%53%14%

With Cuccinelli

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Cuccinelli (R)
Gerry
Connolly (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[223]December 10–12, 2011600± 4%40%41%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Cuccinelli (R)
Tom
Perriello (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[221]August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%39%41%20%
Public Policy Polling[222]July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%39%38%23%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%36%39%25%
Public Policy Polling[223]December 10–12, 2011600± 4%41%41%19%
Public Policy Polling[224]July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%41%36%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Cuccinelli (R)
Mark
Warner (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[220]November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%34%52%15%
Public Policy Polling[221]August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%36%53%11%
Public Policy Polling[222]July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%37%51%13%
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%33%53%14%

Three-way race

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Cuccinelli (R)
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Bill
Bolling (I)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[167]November 2–3, 2013870± 3.3%32%34%22%13%
Quinnipiac[215]February 14–18, 20131,112± 2.9%31%34%13%22%
Roanoke College[216]January 14–22, 2013583± 4.1%25%19%12%44%
Christopher Newport University[217]January 14–20, 20131,015± 3.1%27%27%9%37%
Quinnipiac[218]January 4–7, 20131,134± 2.9%34%34%13%19%
Public Policy Polling[219]January 4–6, 2013602± 4%32%40%15%13%

Results

[edit]

Polls indicated McAuliffe would win comfortably on Election Day. However, the race was much closer than expected. Cuccinelli led for a good portion of the evening. However,Fairfax County, a suburb of Washington D.C., is heavily Democratic, and is often one of the last parts of the state to count their votes. With around 90% of the vote McAuliffe took the lead for the first time. McAuliffe's lead continued to grow as Fairfax County came in. With 96% of the vote counted, CNN called the race for McAuliffe. At 10:06 P.M. EST, Cuccinelli called McAuliffe to concede defeat.Ralph Northam, also a Democrat, won the race for lieutenant governor, making the governor and the lieutenant governor both Democrats for the first time since 2006.

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2013[225]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticTerry McAuliffe1,069,78947.75%+6.50%
RepublicanKen Cuccinelli1,013,35445.23%−13.38%
LibertarianRobert Sarvis146,0846.52%N/A
Write-in11,0870.49%+0.37%
Total votes2,240,314100.00%N/A
Democraticgain fromRepublican

By county and city

[edit]
County[225]McAuliffeVotesCuccinelliVotesSarvisVotesOthersVotes
Accomack41.9%3,80653.7%4,8794.2%3820.2%19
Albemarle54.3%19,03935.4%12,4089.3%3,2791.0%362
Alexandria71.8%29,58422.8%9,4054.9%2,0290.5%200
Alleghany39.4%1,62848.2%1,99311.8%4870.7%28
Amelia31.4%1,33861.4%2,6136.8%2900.4%16
Amherst33.1%2,99360.5%5,4666.1%5500.3%30
Appomattox24.4%1,24168.4%3,4756.8%3480.4%20
Arlington71.6%48,34622.2%14,9785.8%3,9340.4%281
Augusta25.0%5,10067.7%13,8176.9%1,4040.4%88
Bath32.3%39256.6%68610.5%1270.7%8
Bedford23.2%5,80269.3%17,3307.1%1,7690.5%119
Bland21.0%38870.3%1,3008.1%1500.6%11
Botetourt25.8%2,92465.1%7,3668.2%9310.8%92
Bristol32.7%1,30563.5%2,5363.3%1330.6%22
Brunswick59.8%2,70435.8%1,6184.2%1880.3%13
Buchanan30.1%1,46167.5%3,2752.2%1050.2%8
Buckingham43.3%1,80449.3%2,0537.0%2920.3%14
Buena Vista33.9%42257.9%7217.8%970.4%5
Campbell23.4%3,71270.2%11,1335.9%9400.5%82
Caroline48.7%3,79443.4%3,3807.2%5640.6%47
Carroll27.7%2,18264.2%5,0617.7%6030.4%32
Charles City61.3%1,55832.6%8285.7%1450.4%11
Charlotte36.4%1,35856.4%2,1047.0%2620.2%8
Charlottesville75.5%9,44015.4%1,9228.2%1,0261.0%120
Chesapeake48.7%30,83845.6%28,8555.4%3,3910.3%193
Chesterfield40.8%42,86548.7%51,1149.5%9,9491.0%1,064
Clarke40.8%2,00252.9%2,5966.1%3010.2%8
Colonial Heights22.4%1,13165.6%3,31911.1%5601.0%50
Covington46.3%59040.2%51312.6%1610.9%11
Craig24.3%39665.1%1,06310.3%1680.3%5
Culpeper32.9%3,92360.9%7,2725.7%6780.6%67
Cumberland40.9%1,19050.1%1,4568.7%2520.3%10
Danville49.7%5,38944.5%4,8245.5%5950.3%28
Dickenson34.5%1,18461.9%2,1253.1%1050.6%19
Dinwiddie45.3%3,38047.0%3,5077.4%5490.3%22
Emporia59.6%98734.4%5695.4%900.5%9
Essex44.3%1,38147.7%1,4877.2%2250.7%22
Fairfax County58.3%178,74636.1%110,6815.2%15,8280.4%1,175
Fairfax55.4%3,98738.6%2,7775.5%3970.5%35
Falls Church71.3%3,52323.1%1,1425.1%2530.5%24
Fauquier35.1%7,37659.9%12,5654.7%9920.3%59
Floyd32.5%1,48857.6%2,6369.3%4270.6%29
Fluvanna42.3%3,34847.7%3,7749.3%7360.7%52
Franklin County29.1%4,75661.3%10,0118.9%1,4530.6%104
Franklin59.1%1,36236.2%8334.0%920.7%16
Frederick30.8%6,33963.8%13,1485.2%1,0700.2%48
Fredericksburg57.4%3,48835.5%2,1546.6%4000.5%30
Galax35.4%45556.7%7287.6%980.3%4
Giles30.8%1,54158.9%2,9449.7%4870.5%25
Gloucester32.4%3,63359.7%6,6887.7%8620.2%21
Goochland33.5%3,07756.0%5,1559.1%8391.4%127
Grayson28.8%1,40063.8%3,0947.4%3590.0%0
Greene32.1%1,71957.3%3,06910.0%5340.6%30
Greensville60.1%1,72435.3%1,0124.5%1300.1%4
Halifax39.0%3,90954.2%5,4326.2%6220.6%59
Hampton66.6%24,63128.1%10,3845.1%1,9020.1%54
Hanover28.0%10,86260.3%23,4159.9%3,8601.8%683
Harrisonburg52.1%4,19040.3%3,2367.1%5720.5%39
Henrico51.2%53,13238.0%39,4009.4%9,7091.4%1,448
Henry33.7%4,55859.3%8,0246.8%9170.3%34
Highland30.9%27961.7%5577.0%630.4%4
Hopewell46.0%2,49945.1%2,4468.4%4560.5%28
Isle of Wight39.8%4,84353.8%6,5476.2%7480.2%24
James City42.1%11,34451.1%13,7566.4%1,7220.3%94
King and Queen44.1%96847.8%1,0517.1%1561.0%22
King George34.3%2,28959.8%3,9855.7%3820.2%12
King William31.9%1,67156.8%2,97610.4%5430.9%48
Lancaster39.4%1,78652.2%2,3677.3%3291.2%55
Lee24.6%1,18073.1%3,5072.1%1010.2%8
Lexington61.6%93632.9%4994.3%651.3%19
Loudoun49.6%44,36945.2%40,4645.0%4,5020.2%205
Louisa35.6%3,54654.1%5,3819.8%9720.5%54
Lunenburg41.7%1,39750.9%1,7057.0%2340.3%11
Lynchburg39.9%7,92353.6%10,6326.0%1,1880.5%109
Madison34.8%1,57555.5%2,5109.3%4200.4%17
Manassas48.7%4,01346.5%3,8284.6%3810.2%19
Manassas Park53.7%1,14241.8%8884.4%930.1%3
Martinsville50.8%1,72341.6%1,4117.1%2400.5%18
Mathews34.2%1,19458.6%2,0446.1%2141.0%35
Mecklenburg40.2%3,03855.9%4,2263.5%2630.4%27
Middlesex35.1%1,37554.4%2,13110.0%3910.5%21
Montgomery45.8%10,68943.4%10,13310.3%2,3940.6%133
Nelson47.0%2,52343.1%2,3149.3%4970.7%35
New Kent29.0%2,12059.6%4,36510.5%7661.0%70
Newport News59.1%25,08534.9%14,8035.8%2,4440.2%87
Norfolk68.5%31,70825.2%11,6545.8%2,7030.4%195
Northampton51.8%2,04840.2%1,5897.6%3010.3%12
Northumberland37.5%1,96154.0%2,8237.5%3941.0%53
Norton39.7%34655.3%4824.2%370.7%6
Nottoway43.9%1,75647.5%1,8998.2%3270.5%19
Orange36.3%3,62955.6%5,5617.7%7670.4%38
Page32.9%2,00161.7%3,7545.1%3130.3%21
Patrick26.8%1,37369.3%3,5533.7%1910.1%7
Petersburg87.5%7,2609.6%7982.7%2230.2%19
Pittsylvania29.7%5,41964.0%11,6826.0%1,0900.4%64
Poquoson23.6%1,04067.7%2,9878.5%3770.2%11
Portsmouth68.1%17,67126.1%6,7765.5%1,4280.3%78
Powhatan22.8%2,32766.2%6,7489.8%9951.2%127
Prince Edward50.1%2,67442.2%2,2527.3%3890.4%23
Prince George38.4%3,58053.8%5,0117.2%6740.5%51
Prince William51.9%50,44143.7%42,4314.2%4,0840.2%160
Pulaski32.0%2,58158.5%4,7208.8%7130.6%48
Radford46.6%1,36442.9%1,2549.8%2870.6%19
Rappahannock44.2%1,29051.3%1,4994.2%1230.3%8
Richmond County36.3%83656.3%1,2956.5%1500.9%20
Richmond73.4%42,95716.8%9,8548.9%5,2260.9%517
Roanoke County31.8%9,84458.2%18,0408.8%2,7181.2%371
Roanoke53.8%11,71435.7%7,7869.6%2,0990.8%182
Rockbridge36.2%2,43154.2%3,6408.8%5880.9%61
Rockingham25.9%5,72567.6%14,9686.0%1,3170.5%118
Russell31.6%1,91464.8%3,9203.3%2010.3%16
Salem32.4%2,32456.0%4,01910.2%7321.4%101
Scott21.9%1,15875.6%4,0012.3%1240.2%10
Shenandoah30.7%3,56563.3%7,3455.6%6490.4%44
Smyth30.6%2,30764.8%4,8804.3%3230.3%22
Southampton44.7%2,29550.3%2,5784.6%2370.4%19
Spotsylvania38.5%12,22056.0%17,7555.2%1,6570.3%98
Stafford40.0%13,65754.5%18,5955.1%1,7560.3%113
Staunton47.2%3,05844.3%2,8697.8%5030.6%42
Suffolk54.2%13,13240.9%9,9064.7%1,1430.2%59
Surry58.8%1,57636.5%9774.3%1160.3%9
Sussex56.5%1,83438.8%1,2594.4%1440.3%9
Tazewell23.3%2,35873.9%7,4902.7%2750.1%12
Virginia Beach45.6%49,35747.6%51,4946.5%7,0230.4%379
Warren35.0%3,39260.5%5,8734.3%4160.2%21
Washington27.2%3,93669.0%9,9893.6%5200.3%40
Waynesboro38.3%1,91851.9%2,5989.2%4600.6%30
Westmoreland47.4%2,11547.4%2,1164.9%2170.4%17
Williamsburg63.0%2,74830.6%1,3375.8%2540.6%25
Winchester46.3%2,63147.5%2,7025.7%3260.4%25
Wise26.4%2,19670.0%5,8303.3%2730.3%25
Wythe26.6%2,04964.4%4,9678.3%6410.7%55
York36.7%7,74556.4%11,9236.7%1,4180.2%43
Shift by county
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
  •   Democratic — >15%

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Cuccinelli won seven of 11 congressional districts, while McAuliffe won four, including one held by a Republican.[226]

DistrictCuccinelliMcAuliffeRepresentative
1st52.36%41.56%Rob Wittman
2nd46.16%47.13%Scott Rigell
3rd19.09%75.45%Bobby Scott
4th48.07%45.29%Randy Forbes
5th51.43%41.3%Robert Hurt
6th57.82%35.02%Bob Goodlatte
7th51.81%38.24%Eric Cantor
8th26.64%68.13%Jim Moran
9th61.11%32.23%Morgan Griffith
10th47.88%46.96%Frank Wolf
11th34.75%60.28%Gerry Connolly

Analysis

[edit]

The result was somewhat surprising because many polls showed McAuliffe with a larger margin of victory over Cuccinelli than he ended up with. The Libertarian candidate was seen as having a large impact on the polls, his presence complicating them and adding "uncertainty to the ballot test". The polling for the lieutenant governor and attorney general elections, which did not feature a third-party candidate, was much more accurate.[227] Although Sarvis also under-performed, this is the best result for a third-party candidate in Virginia since1965. This is the first time since 1885 that a party was voted out of thegovernor's mansion after just one term.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

[edit]
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