 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 631 seats in theBundestag, including 33overhang andleveling seats 316 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 61,946,900 ( 0.4%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 71.5% ( 0.7pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results of the election. The main map shows constituency winners, and results for the proportional list seats are shown in the bottom left. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Afederal election was held on 22 September to elect the members of the 18thBundestag ofGermany.[1] At stake were all 598 seats to the Bundestag, plus 33overhang seats determined thereafter. TheChristian Democratic Union of Germany/Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CDU/CSU) of incumbent chancellorAngela Merkel won their best result since1990 with nearly 42% of the vote and nearly 50% of the seats, just five short for an overall majority. The co-governingFree Democratic Party (FDP) failed to meet the5% voteelectoral threshold in what was their worst showing ever in a federal election at the time, theelectoral wipeout denying them seats in the Bundestag for the first time in their history.
As the CDU/CSU's narrowly missed a majority, and the FDP failed to get any seats, any prospective government was required to be a new coalition. The only possible coalition government excluding the CDU/CSU would have been an all-left-wingred–red–green coalition, since ared–green alliance, similar to the German government between1998 and2005, would not have enough seats for a majority. Both theSocial Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) andAlliance 90/The Greens ruled out governing withThe Left that had ruled former East Germany. Ultimately, Merkel's party reached acoalition agreement with the then-main opposition party, the SPD, to form anothergrand coalition, the third in the country's history sinceWorld War II. The SPD leadership conducted a ratification vote by their broader membership before the agreement was made final. This grand coalition was renewed after the2017 German federal election due to failure during the negotiations of aJamaica coalition.
A newEurosceptic party, theAlternative for Germany (AfD) founded in February 2013, only had candidates in 158 of 299 constituencies, narrowly missed the 5% electoral threshold, but becameleader of the opposition already in 2017.
In the2009 German federal election, theChristian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and its sister party, theChristian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), and theFree Democratic Party (FDP) won the election withAngela Merkel asChancellor of Germany andGuido Westerwelle asVice-Chancellor of Germany.[2]
The date of the federal election is governed by theBasic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany (Germany's constitution) and the Federal Election Law (Bundeswahlgesetz). Article 39 of the Basic Law states that the Bundestag shall be elected between 46 and 48 months after the beginning of the legislative period.[3] As the 17th Bundestag convened on 27 October 2009, the election was scheduled between 27 August and 27 October 2013.[4] To avoid school holidays, a date in late September is usually chosen; this made 15 or 22 September 2013 the most likely dates.[5] ThePresident of Germany ordered 22 September 2013 to be the election day upon the recommendation of the federal government.[6]
Polling stations were open from 8:00 to 18:00.[1]
According to Article 38 of theBasic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany, members of the Bundestag shall be elected in general, direct, free, equal, and secret elections; everyone over the age of eighteen is entitled to vote.[7]
In 2008, some modifications to the electoral system were required under an order of theFederal Constitutional Court of Germany. The court had found a provision in the Federal Election Law by which it was possible for a party to experience anegative vote weight, namely losing seats due to more votes, violated the constitutional guarantee of the electoral system being equal and direct.[8] The court allowed three years for these changes, so the2009 German federal election was not affected. The changes were due by 30 June 2011 but appropriate legislation was not completed by that deadline. A new electoral law was enacted in late 2011 but was declared unconstitutional once again by the Federal Constitutional Court upon lawsuits from the opposition parties and a group of some 4,000 private citizens.[9]
Four of the five factions in the Bundestag agreed on an electoral reform whereby the number of seats in the Bundestag will be increased as much as necessary to ensure that anyoverhang seats arecompensated through apportionedleveling seats, to ensure full proportionality according to the political party's share of party votes at the national level.[10] The Bundestag approved and enacted the new electoral reform in February 2013.[11]
The Bundestag is elected usingmixed-member proportional representation, meaning that each voter has two votes, afirst vote for the election of a constituency candidate byfirst-past-the-post[12] and asecond vote for the election of astate list.[13] TheSainte-Laguë/Schepers method is used to convert the votes into seats,[14] in a two-stage process with each stage involving two calculations. First, the number of seats to be allocated to each state is calculated, based on the proportion of the German population living there. Then the seats in each state are allocated to the party lists in that state, based on the proportion of second votes each party received.[15]
In the distribution of seats among state lists, only parties that have obtained at leastfive percent of the valid second votes cast in the electoral area or have won a seat in at least threeconstituencies are taken into consideration.[15] The minimum number of seats for each party at federal level is then determined. This is done by calculating, for each party state list, the number of constituency seats it won on the basis of the first votes, as well as the number of seats to which it is entitled on the basis of the second votes. The higher of these two figures is the party's minimum number of seats in that state. Adding together the minimum number of seats to which the party is entitled in all of the states produces a total representing its guaranteed minimum number of seats in the country as a whole.[15]
In order to ensure that each party receives its guaranteed minimum number of seats when the seats are allocated using theSainte-Laguë/Schepers method, it may become necessary to increase the number of seats in the Bundestag. Then it must be ensured that the seats are distributed to the parties in line with their national share of the second votes.[15] Additional overhang seats, or balance seats, are created to ensure that the distribution of the seats reflects the parties' share of the second votes and that no party receives fewer than its guaranteed minimum number of seats. Balance seats are also necessary to ensure that each party requires roughly the same number of second votes per seat. Once the number of seats which each party is entitled to receive across the country has been determined, the seats are allocated to the parties' individual state lists. Each state list must receive at least as many seats as the number of constituencies which the party won in the state in question.[15]
Although thechancellor-candidates (Kanzlerkandidaten) play a very important role in election campaigns, their office is not regulated in any law, and it is up to each party to determine how, and if at all, to name a chancellor-candidate. The SPD names a chancellor-candidate, while the CDU and the CSU name a common one. The smaller Bundestag parties (the FDP, the Left, and the Greens) usually[16] do not name a chancellor-candidate as it is very improbable for such a candidate to actually be elected chancellor. They instead name one or two persons (Spitzenkandidaten) who are to become the faces of that party's campaign. Although there is nearly no chance for them to win seats in the Bundestag, especially due to the required minimum quota of votes required to be granted any seats, and much less have their candidate become chancellor, fringe parties sometimes name a chancellor-candidate, such as the Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität with its chancellor-candidateHelga Zepp-LaRouche in the 2009 federal election.[17]
While a sitting chancellor is usually named chancellor-candidate for his or her own party, the main opposition party's process to determine their chancellor-candidate differs. Most times, such a person is determined in an inner party circle and then anointed in a party convention. As the CDU/CSU is the main government party, CDU chairwoman and incumbent chancellorAngela Merkel was not challenged as chancellor-candidate. In the SPD, the situation was a bit less clear, as there were four candidates in the discussion. While the party chairmanSigmar Gabriel, the parliamentary caucus leaderFrank-Walter Steinmeier, andPeer Steinbrück, former minister-president of Nordrhein-Westfalen and former federal minister of Finance, were quasi-official contenders for the candidacy, incumbent Nordrhein-Westfalen minister-presidentHannelore Kraft denied interest in the candidacy.[18] Gabriel, Steinmeier, and Steinbrück all had a bad electoral record, as they all had led their party into painful defeats in state or general elections. Gabriel and Steinbrück lost their inherited minister-president offices in 2003 and 2005, and Steinmeier failed as a chancellor-candidate in 2009. On 28 September 2012, the party announced that Steinbrück would be the SPD's chancellor-candidate.[19]
After taking heat domestically for bailing out other European countries, Finance-MinisterWolfgang Schäuble took the step of mentioning that Greece would need a third bailout. This was in stark contrast to his colleagues who had refrained from making such measures in light of the election, in particularly following Merkel's dismissal of a potential future bailout. In reaction to the statement and the dithering,Peer Steinbrueck of the SPD said that it was "time that Mrs. Merkel tells people the truth", whileJürgen Trittin of the Greens also criticized Merkel.[20]
Merkel also became the first chancellor to visitDachau concentration camp after an invitation by former inmateMax Mannheimer, who leads a survivor group, saying: "What happened at the concentration camps was and continues to be incomprehensible." Merkel also warning of a rising tide of antisemitism and racism as a threat to democracy in Europe. Her visit was welcomed by residents of the town due to its historic nature but was also suggested as a vote ploy ahead of the election.[21] She also campaigned on Germany's unemployment record that fell to a two-decade low during her premiership, progress towards a balanced budget, and theEurozone's advantages for Germany's exports. There were questions asked about her legacy and a potential heir to the party leadership.[22] Campaigning in the "hot phase"[23] ended on 21 September, as Merkel appealed to voters to support her againstEurosceptics.[24]
A 90-minute televised debate between the lead candidates of the CDU/CSU and the SPD, the two leading contenders, was held on 1 September.[25] The smaller-party top-ranking candidatesRainer Brüderle (FDP),Jürgen Trittin (Alliance 90/The Greens), andGregor Gysi (The Left) held a separate debate on 2 September.[26]
In Germany, there are regular opinion polls during the whole of the legislative period. Germany's major polling agencies areAllensbach, Emnid,Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, and INSA/YouGov. August 2013 opinion polls suggested that the CDU/CSU and the FDP (black–yellow coalition) would be just short of or just above an absolute majority, rather than the SPD and Greens (red–green coalition), partners inGerhard Schröder-led government (1998–2005).[27]
Only four parties were present in the Bundestag for the first time since the1987 West German federal election, as theCDU/CSU operates as one Bundestag group. TheChristian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and theChristian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU) scored 42 percent of the vote, their best result since tallying 44% in1990. Since 15.7 percent of the vote went to parties that fell short of the 5%electoral threshold, the CDU/CSU came up just five seats short of a majority. TheFree Democratic Party (FDP), junior partner in the outgoingcoalition government, failed to pass the 5% threshold. It also failed to win any directly elected seats, as it has not won any directly elected seats since 1990, shutting it out of the Bundestag altogether for the first time in the party's history. A new Eurosceptic party,Alternative for Germany, nearly won seats but was shut out by narrowly missing the 5%electoral threshold.[28][29]
 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Party-list | Constituency | Total seats | +/– | |||||
| Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Seats | ||||
| Christian Democratic Union | 14,921,877 | 34.13 | 64 | 16,233,642 | 37.21 | 191 | 255 | +61 | |
| Social Democratic Party | 11,252,215 | 25.73 | 135 | 12,843,458 | 29.44 | 58 | 193 | +47 | |
| The Left | 3,755,699 | 8.59 | 60 | 3,585,178 | 8.22 | 4 | 64 | −12 | |
| Alliance 90/The Greens | 3,694,057 | 8.45 | 62 | 3,180,299 | 7.29 | 1 | 63 | −5 | |
| Christian Social Union | 3,243,569 | 7.42 | 11 | 3,544,079 | 8.12 | 45 | 56 | +11 | |
| Free Democratic Party | 2,083,533 | 4.76 | 0 | 1,028,645 | 2.36 | 0 | 0 | −93 | |
| Alternative for Germany | 2,056,985 | 4.70 | 0 | 810,915 | 1.86 | 0 | 0 | New | |
| Pirate Party Germany | 959,177 | 2.19 | 0 | 963,623 | 2.21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| National Democratic Party | 560,828 | 1.28 | 0 | 635,135 | 1.46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free Voters | 423,977 | 0.97 | 0 | 431,640 | 0.99 | 0 | 0 | New | |
| Human Environment Animal Protection Party | 140,366 | 0.32 | 0 | 4,437 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ecological Democratic Party | 127,088 | 0.29 | 0 | 128,209 | 0.29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Republicans | 91,193 | 0.21 | 0 | 27,299 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Die PARTEI | 78,674 | 0.18 | 0 | 39,388 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pro Germany Citizens' Movement | 73,854 | 0.17 | 0 | 4,815 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New | |
| Bavaria Party | 57,395 | 0.13 | 0 | 28,430 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Democracy by Referendum | 28,654 | 0.07 | 0 | 1,748 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pensioners' Party | 25,134 | 0.06 | 0 | 920 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Party of Reason | 24,719 | 0.06 | 0 | 3,861 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New | |
| Marxist–Leninist Party | 24,219 | 0.06 | 0 | 12,904 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Party of Bible-abiding Christians | 18,542 | 0.04 | 0 | 2,081 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alliance for Innovation and Justice | 17,743 | 0.04 | 0 | 2,680 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New | |
| Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität | 12,814 | 0.03 | 0 | 17,988 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feminist Party | 12,148 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Party of the Non-voters | 11,349 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Alliance 21/RRP | 8,578 | 0.02 | 0 | 5,324 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Violets | 8,211 | 0.02 | 0 | 2,516 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Family Party | 7,449 | 0.02 | 0 | 4,478 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Party for Social Equality | 4,564 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| The Right | 2,245 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
| German Communist Party | 1,699 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Federation for a Complete Germany | 1,431 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Bergpartei, die "ÜberPartei" | 624 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
| NO! Idea | 290 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | New | ||||
| Independents and voter groups | 77,306 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total | 43,726,856 | 100.00 | 332 | 43,625,042 | 100.00 | 299 | 631 | +9 | |
| Valid votes | 43,726,856 | 98.68 | 43,625,042 | 98.45 | |||||
| Invalid/blank votes | 583,069 | 1.32 | 684,883 | 1.55 | |||||
| Total votes | 44,309,925 | 100.00 | 44,309,925 | 100.00 | |||||
| Registered voters/turnout | 61,946,900 | 71.53 | 61,946,900 | 71.53 | |||||
| Source: Bundeswahlleiter[30] | |||||||||
Below are second votes (Zweitstimme, or votes forparty list), bystate.[31]
| State | CDU/CSU | SPD | LINKE | GRÜNE | FDP | AfD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baden-Württemberg | 45.7 | 20.6 | 4.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 6.5 |
 Bavaria | 49.3 | 20.0 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 9.2 |
 Berlin | 28.5 | 24.6 | 18.5 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 7.6 |
 Brandenburg | 34.8 | 23.1 | 22.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 |
 Bremen | 29.3 | 35.7 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 5.7 |
 Hamburg | 32.2 | 32.4 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
 Hesse | 39.2 | 28.8 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 |
 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 42.5 | 17.8 | 21.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
 Lower Saxony | 41.1 | 33.1 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
 North Rhine-Westphalia | 39.8 | 31.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 |
 Rhineland-Palatinate | 43.3 | 27.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
 Saarland | 37.8 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.5 |
 Saxony | 42.6 | 14.6 | 20.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 8.0 |
 Saxony-Anhalt | 41.2 | 18.2 | 23.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 5.9 |
 Schleswig-Holstein | 39.2 | 31.6 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
 Thuringia | 38.8 | 16.1 | 23.4 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 |
| State | Total seats | Seats won | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | SPD | CSU | Linke | Grüne | ||
| Baden-Württemberg | 38 | 38 | ||||
| Bavaria | 45 | 45 | ||||
| Berlin | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Brandenburg | 10 | 9 | 1 | |||
| Bremen | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Hamburg | 6 | 1 | 5 | |||
| Hesse | 22 | 17 | 5 | |||
| Lower Saxony | 30 | 17 | 13 | |||
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 6 | 6 | ||||
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 64 | 37 | 27 | |||
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 15 | 14 | 1 | |||
| Saarland | 4 | 4 | ||||
| Saxony | 16 | 16 | ||||
| Saxony-Anhalt | 9 | 9 | ||||
| Schleswig-Holstein | 11 | 9 | 2 | |||
| Thuringia | 9 | 9 | ||||
| Total | 299 | 191 | 58 | 45 | 4 | 1 |
| State | Total seats | Seats won | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | CSU | ||
| Baden-Württemberg | 40 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | |
| Bavaria | 46 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 11 | |
| Berlin | 15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Brandenburg | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Hamburg | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Hesse | 23 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Lower Saxony | 36 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 4 | |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | ||
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 74 | 25 | 26 | 13 | 10 | |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Saarland | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Saxony | 17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Schleswig-Holstein | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Thuringia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Total | 332 | 135 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 11 |
Incumbent chancellorAngela Merkel said: "It was a strong vote to take responsibility in Germany, but also in Europe and the world."[32]Peer Steinbrück announced his withdrawal from top politics and his intention to focus on his ordinary tasks as a member of parliament.[33]
As in thered-baiting andRed Scare campaign ("red socks") during the1994 German federal election, Merkel scared off that the alternative was a left-wingred–red–green coalition government, since the FDP lost all its seats.[34] Many SPD insiders did not want to work with The Left. One day after the election, Merkel announced that she had already spoken with the SPD but would not rule out other possibilities.[35] An opinion poll conducted shortly after the election showed that 65% of SPD members were opposed to entering a Merkel-ledgrand coalition;[36] however, the SPD executive voted to enter coalition talks[37] with the proviso that they would seek a vote from their membership before making a final agreement on entering a coalition.[38] The Greens were open to coalition talks with the CDU/CSU,[39] but CSU leaders said they opposed a coalition with the Greens.[40] The Greens announced they would not consider going into coalition with the Left.[41]
Formal talks began in the first week of October when Merkel met SPD leaders on 4 October. She said: "Europe is watching us, the world is watching us. We have the common responsibility to build a stable government." She also planned to hold talks with the Greens the following week.[42] After five weeks of negotiations that culminated in an all-night session 27–28 November, the CDU/CSU reached agreement with the SPD to form a new coalition government. Issues resolved in the talks included the planned introduction of a minimum hourly wage of €8.50 in 2015 and no new taxes. The deal depended on approval by the SPD rank and file, with a poll set for 6 December.[43][44][45] On 14 December, 76% of the SPD's members voted for the coalition to go ahead. TheThird Merkel cabinet was sworn in on 17 December.[46] This grand coalition continued after the2017 German federal election.[34]
Casting of votes as a rule from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
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