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2012 United States presidential election in Florida

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Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
Turnout72%Decrease[1]
 
NomineeBarack ObamaMitt Romney
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateIllinoisMassachusetts
Running mateJoe BidenPaul Ryan
Electoral vote290
Popular vote4,237,7564,163,447
Percentage50.01%49.13%

County results
Congressional district results

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Romney

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Florida
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The2012 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 6, as part of the2012 U.S. presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose 29 electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,U.S. RepresentativePaul Ryan.[2][3][4]

By November 8, the vote counting had still not concluded. However, with much of the remaining vote still coming in was from heavily Democratic areas, Romney's Florida campaign acknowledged that he had lost the state to Obama. In order to certify the election in Florida, the ballots continued to be counted.[5] BothMiami-Dade andBroward County completed their ballot counts on November 8, leavingPalm Beach andDuval counties as the only two that did not have a final count at the end of the day.[6]

Florida required all counties to finish counting by noon Saturday but would not announce an official winner until the votes were certified on November 20. A recount is not done unless the difference is less than 0.5%. At 11 PM EST on November 9, the margin for Obama was 0.86%, with all but one county finished with their counting.[7] On November 10, most major news sources projected Obama to be the winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes. It was the last state to be called in the 2012 presidential election and also the closest.[8][9][10]

DespiteTampa having been the site of the2012 RNC, Obama ultimately carried Florida with 50.01% of the vote, to Romney's 49.13%, a margin of 0.88%. (Ironically,Charlotte, North Carolina was the site of the2012 DNC, and Romney wonNorth Carolina.) Having also won the state in2008, Obama's 2012 victory made him the first Democrat sinceFranklin D. Roosevelt in1944 to carry Florida in two consecutive elections, and also marked the first time since1948 that the state voted Democratic in consecutive elections.

Nonetheless, Obama's margin of victory decreased from 2.81% in 2008. He also lostFlagler andVolusia Counties, which he had won in 2008;[11] he thus became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying the former sinceHarry S. Truman in1948 and the first to do so without carrying the latter sinceJohn F. Kennedy in1960. Florida is also one of only three states that backed Obama twice that would go on to vote against his vice president Joe Biden in2020, the other two beingIowa andOhio.

As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time that a Democratic presidential nominee has carried Florida, or the following counties:Jefferson,St. Lucie, andMonroe. This remains the second closest presidential result in the state ever, behind only the2000 election. This was also the last time a Democrat won a federal statewide election in Florida, with the last statewide win coming in2018.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
[icon]
This section is empty. You can help byadding to it.(June 2022)

Republican primary

[edit]
2012 Florida Republican primary

← 2008January 31, 2012 (2012-01-31)2016 →
 
CandidateMitt RomneyNewt Gingrich
Home stateMassachusettsGeorgia
Delegate count500
Popular vote776,159534,121
Percentage46.40%31.93%

 
CandidateRick SantorumRon Paul
Home statePennsylvaniaTexas
Delegate count00
Popular vote223,249117,461
Percentage13.35%7.02%

Florida results by county
  Mitt Romney
  Newt Gingrich

The Republican primary was held on January 31, 2012.[12] Fifty delegates were at stake, none of them RNC (or super) delegates; it is unclear whether these delegates will be allocated proportionally or winner-take-all. Originally awarded 99 delegates,[12] theRepublican National Committee removed half of Florida's delegates because the state committee moved its Republican primary before March 6;[13] theRepublican National Committee rules also set the delegate allocation to be proportional because the contest was held before April 1.[14] It is aclosed primary.[12] There were 4,063,853registered Republican voters as of January 3, 2012.[15]

Florida is spread over two time zones, so voting wasn't completed until 7 pm CST/8pm EST.[16]

Significance

[edit]

In an effort to increase the political importance of their state's primary and receive added media exposure often directed to the early contests, Florida decided to plan its primary ahead of the early contests, a move that violated Republican Party rules and forced early states to move up their contests.[17] Florida announced that their primary would occur on January 31 instead of the expected March; Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina were expected to have their primaries in February but were forced to push their primaries into January, thereby shortening the overall amount of time that each person could campaign. Florida made this move in 2008.

As a result of this calendar violation, Florida was stripped of half of its delegates, awarding only 50 delegates instead of the original 100 delegates.

Dean Cannon, the Republican speaker of the Florida House of Representatives: "My goal all along is for Florida to preserve her place as the fifth spot on the nominating calendar and not to move ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire."[18]

Controversy

[edit]

According to a Gingrich campaign memo, he planned to challenge the results based on an interpretation of the Republican National Committee's rules that state that no contest can be winner-take-all prior to April 1, 2012.[19][20][21][22][23][24] Gingrich would have requested that delegates be divided proportionally, corresponding to the percentage of votes each candidate received.[25] It is not known what result a successful challenge might have had.

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[26]TossupNovember 6, 2012
CNN[27]TossupNovember 6, 2012
The New York Times[28]TossupNovember 6, 2012
The Washington Post[29]TossupNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[30]TossupNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31]Lean R(flip)November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[32]Lean DNovember 6, 2012

Results

[edit]
State Senate District Results:
Obama
  40-50%
  50-60%
  60-70%
  70-80%
  80-90%
Romney
  50-60%
  60-70%
  70-80%

The final vote count was unknown at noon Friday, November 9, 2012.[33] The delay in the final count was caused by a combination of an extremely long ballot (with eleven state amendment questions) and a high number of absentee ballots. There were 240,000 absentee ballots inMiami-Dade County, Florida alone, with 54,000 of these cast on election day. Four urban counties, Dade,Broward,Palm Beach andDuval, all experienced problems with counting their large number of absentee ballots. Each ballot had to be hand certified page by page, and then the pages had to be hand fed into the counting machine one by one.[33] At noon Friday, Dade and Broward had finished counting, but Palm Beach and Duval were still counting.

2012 United States presidential election in Florida[34]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)4,237,75650.01%29
RepublicanMitt Romney4,163,44749.13%0
LibertarianGary Johnson44,7260.53%0
GreenJill Stein8,9470.11%0
Peace and Freedom PartyRoseanne Barr8,1540.10%0
Objectivist PartyTom Stevens3,8560.05%0
Justice PartyRocky Anderson1,7540.02%0
America's PartyTom Hoefling9460.01%0
ReformAndre Barnett8200.01%0
SocialistStewart Alexander7990.01%0
Socialism and LiberationPeta Lindsay3220.00%0
Write-insWrite-ins2,6520.03%0
Totals8,474,179100.00%29
Voter turnout (eligible voters)72.00%

By county

[edit]
This section needs to beupdated. The reason given is: The county table results do not match the election box or the infobox. please fix it.. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(June 2024)
CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Alachua69,69957.71%48,79740.40%2,2771.89%20,90217.31%120,773
Baker2,31120.29%8,97578.80%1040.91%-6,664-58.51%11,390
Bay22,05127.53%56,87671.01%1,1741.46%-34,825-43.48%80,101
Bradford3,32528.51%8,21970.46%1201.03%-4,894-41.95%11,664
Brevard122,99342.94%159,30055.62%4,1351.44%-36,307-12.68%286,428
Broward508,31267.12%244,10132.23%4,9410.65%264,21134.89%757,354
Calhoun1,66426.91%4,36670.61%1532.48%-2,702-43.70%6,183
Charlotte35,90642.28%47,99656.52%1,0211.20%-12,090-14.24%84,923
Citrus28,46038.37%44,66260.22%1,0471.41%-16,202-21.85%74,169
Clay25,75926.61%70,02272.33%1,0241.06%-44,263-45.72%96,805
Collier51,69834.62%96,52064.64%1,1060.74%-44,822-30.02%149,324
Columbia8,46231.08%18,42967.69%3361.23%-9,967-36.61%27,227
DeSoto4,17442.22%5,58756.51%1261.27%-1,413-14.29%9,887
Dixie1,79825.84%5,05272.60%1091.56%-3,254-46.76%6,959
Duval196,73747.67%211,61551.27%4,3811.06%-14,878-3.60%412,733
Escambia58,18539.06%88,71159.55%2,0711.39%-30,526-20.49%148,967
Flagler23,20745.77%26,96953.19%5311.04%-3,762-7.42%50,707
Franklin1,84533.58%3,57064.98%791.44%-1,725-31.40%5,494
Gadsden15,77070.01%6,63029.43%1250.56%9,14040.58%22,525
Gilchrist1,88523.75%5,91774.55%1351.70%-4,032-50.80%7,937
Glades1,60340.03%2,34458.54%571.43%-741-18.51%4,004
Gulf2,01428.26%4,99570.10%1171.64%-2,981-41.84%7,126
Hamilton2,22841.11%3,13857.90%541.00%-910-16.79%5,420
Hardee2,46334.00%4,69664.83%851.17%-2,233-30.83%7,244
Hendry4,75146.51%5,35552.42%1091.07%-604-5.91%10,215
Hernando37,83045.07%44,93853.54%1,1601.39%-7,108-8.47%83,928
Highlands16,14837.96%25,91560.92%4781.12%-9,767-22.96%42,541
Hillsborough286,46752.71%250,18646.04%6,7761.25%36,2816.67%543,429
Holmes1,26415.25%6,91983.46%1071.29%-5,655-68.21%8,290
Indian River27,49238.41%43,45060.70%6380.89%-15,958-22.29%71,580
Jackson7,34235.02%13,41864.00%2070.98%-6,076-28.98%20,967
Jefferson3,94550.45%3,80848.70%670.85%1371.75%7,820
Lafayette68720.17%2,66878.33%511.50%-1,981-58.16%3,406
Lake61,79940.89%87,64357.99%1,7021.02%-25,844-17.10%151,144
Lee110,15741.32%154,16357.83%2,2780.85%-44,006-16.51%266,598
Leon90,88161.13%55,80537.54%1,9851.33%35,07623.59%148,671
Levy6,11933.15%12,05465.31%2841.54%-5,935-32.16%18,457
Liberty94228.64%2,30169.96%461.40%-1,359-41.32%3,289
Madison4,17647.85%4,47451.27%770.88%-298-3.42%8,727
Manatee66,50343.22%85,62755.65%1,7361.13%-19,124-12.43%153,866
Marion66,83141.32%93,04357.53%1,8641.15%-26,212-16.21%161,738
Martin30,10738.09%48,18360.96%7470.95%-18,076-22.87%79,037
Miami-Dade541,44061.58%332,98137.87%4,7580.55%208,45923.71%879,179
Monroe19,40449.56%19,23449.12%5161.32%1700.44%39,154
Nassau10,25125.23%29,92973.67%4451.10%-19,678-48.44%40,625
Okaloosa23,42124.63%70,16873.80%1,4861.57%-46,747-49.17%95,075
Okeechobee4,85639.27%7,32859.25%1831.48%-2,472-19.98%12,367
Orange273,66558.56%188,58940.36%5,0491.08%85,07618.20%467,303
Osceola67,23961.73%40,59237.27%1,0911.00%26,64724.46%108,922
Palm Beach349,65158.14%247,39841.13%4,3900.73%102,25317.01%601,439
Pasco98,26345.86%112,42752.48%3,5581.66%-14,164-6.62%214,248
Pinellas239,10452.08%213,25846.45%6,7501.47%25,8465.63%459,112
Polk114,62245.95%131,57752.75%3,2431.30%-16,955-6.80%249,442
Putnam11,66737.13%19,32661.50%4311.37%-7,659-24.37%31,424
St. Johns35,19030.59%78,51368.25%1,3321.16%-43,323-37.66%115,035
St. Lucie65,86953.42%56,20245.58%1,2301.00%9,6677.84%123,301
Santa Rosa17,76823.06%58,18675.51%1,1061.43%-40,418-52.45%77,060
Sarasota95,11945.74%110,50453.14%2,3381.12%-15,385-7.40%207,961
Seminole96,44546.12%109,94352.57%2,7321.31%-13,498-6.45%209,120
Sumter19,52432.25%40,64667.13%3760.62%-21,122-34.88%60,546
Suwannee4,75126.85%12,67271.63%2691.52%-7,921-44.78%17,692
Taylor2,76430.24%6,24968.37%1271.39%-3,485-38.13%9,140
Union1,33924.76%3,98073.59%891.65%-2,641-48.83%5,408
Volusia114,74848.78%117,49049.94%3,0161.28%-2,742-1.16%235,254
Wakulla5,17535.21%9,29063.21%2321.58%-4,115-28.00%14,697
Walton6,67123.34%21,49075.19%4211.47%-14,819-51.85%28,582
Washington2,82025.54%8,03872.79%1841.67%-5,218-47.25%11,042
Totals4,237,75649.90%4,163,44749.03%90,9721.07%74,3090.87%8,492,175
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[11]

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Romney won 16 of 27 congressional districts including one held by a Democrat, while Obama won 11, including two held by Republicans.[35]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st68.66%30.18%Jeff Miller
2nd52.38%46.52%Steve Southerland
3rd61.5%37.5%Ted Yoho
4th63.62%35.45%Ander Crenshaw
5th28.05%71.23%Corrine Brown
6th57.7%41.4%Ron DeSantis
7th51.81%47.1%John Mica
8th56.76%42.18%Bill Posey
9th37.21%61.94%Alan Grayson
10th53.35%45.72%Daniel Webster
11th58.85%40.23%Rich Nugent
12th54.04%44.77%Gus Bilirakis
13th48.65%50.12%Bill Young
14th33.96%65.05%Kathy Castor
15th53.33%45.58%Dennis Ross
16th54.22%44.9%Vern Buchanan
17th57.88%41.2%Tom Rooney
18th51.72%47.56%Patrick Murphy
19th60.6%38.76%Trey Radel
20th16.98%82.16%Alcee Hastings
21st38.85%60.6%Ted Deutch
22nd44.93%54.38%Lois Frankel
23rd37.9%61.5%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th12.17%87.52%Frederica Wilson
25th50.8%48.7%Mario Díaz-Balart
26th46.35%53.1%Joe Garcia
27th46.45%53.05%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Analysis

[edit]

Obama won the state and its 29 electoral votes on Election Day by a margin of 0.88%, down from the 2.82% margin in2008. Florida was the closest race in the country at the presidential level. Throughout the night, Obama and Romney exchanged the lead, but the networks avoided calling the state for Obama until November 10 because long lines in the larger urban areas of the state meant that the vote count was delayed.

According to exit polling, Obama won 95% of theAfrican-American vote (13% of voters), 60% of Latino voters (up 3 points from 2008 and 17% of all voters), and 50% among Independents (who accounted for 33% of all voters). Mitt Romney won white voters by 24 percent. In addition, both Democratic and Republican strategists agreed that the President's ground game and early voting leads played a huge role in such a tight race. Despite laws that curbed early voting, more than 4 million Floridians cast a ballot before Election Day (almost 50% of all voters), and reports showed that Obama was leading by about 104,000 among those voters.

The political geography of Florida is largely divided in thirds:South Florida (around theMiami metropolitan area) is heavily Democratic,North Florida (theFlorida Panhandle, and theJacksonville metropolitan area) is heavily Republican outside ofTallahassee andGainesville, whileCentral Florida is a "swing" area of the state, where Democrats have made inroads in recent years.

Mirroring the results of the 2008 presidential election in Florida, Obama dominatedSouth Florida, winningMiami-Dade,Broward, andPalm Beach counties by comfortable margins, and actually increased his vote share in Miami -Dade and Broward counties from 2008. However, Romney's performance in Palm Beach County was notable considering he is the first Republican presidential candidate in over a decade to receive over 40% of the county's vote. Obama's gains in South Florida have been attributed to increasing his vote share amongCuban Americans, a large demographic in and aroundMiami who have reliably voted Republican, from 35% in 2008 to 48% against Romney's 52% in 2012. Combined with his large margins of victory among non-Cuban Hispanics in the state, Arian Campo-Flores atThe Wall Street Journal claimed that, "Together, both trends are accelerating a realignment of the state's Latino vote, from once solidly Republican to now reliably Democratic."[36] Twelve years later, in2024, RepublicanDonald Trump wonMiami-Dade County and a majority of Hispanics in Florida, while winning the state by 13%.[37]

Although Obama lost large swaths ofNorth Florida, he was able to keep the margins relatively close along the Eastern Seaboard. He lost to Romney inDuval County, anchored by Florida's largest city,Jacksonville, by only 3%, andVolusia County, home toDaytona Beach, by less than 2%. Where the state tipped into the Obama column was inCentral Florida, the site of enormous growth in the last two decades. Obama was able to deliver big wins in theOrlando andTampa Bay areas, whereGeorge W. Bush won in2004. In the former, Obama carriedOrange County (which includesOrlando) by 19 points andOsceola County near Orlando by a 24-point margin (Bush won it in 2004 52%-47%). In both counties, he was able to tap into a growing Puerto Rican community, which overwhelmingly broke his way.

In the Tampa Bay region, Obama once again carriedHillsborough County, home toTampa, by a 6-point margin, receiving over 13,000 more votes than he won in 2008. Obama also wonPinellas County, home toSt. Petersburg, by a 52%-46.5% margin. Bush had narrowly carried the county by about 0.1% in 2004. In all, Obama won the three largest counties in Central Florida – Hillsborough, Orange, and Pinellas – while keeping his losing margins low in other populous counties –Polk,Seminole, andManatee County.

Contrary to the2010 elections where Democrats lost four seats from Florida in theU.S. House of Representatives, Democrats picked up four seats from Florida this time around, as the state's congressional delegation increased by 2 members.Patrick Murphy defeated incumbent RepublicanAllen West inFlorida's 18th congressional district andJoe Garcia defeated incumbent RepublicanDavid Rivera inFlorida's 26th congressional district. DemocratAlan Grayson won a new seat inFlorida's 9th congressional district while formerWest Palm Beach mayor,Lois Frankel, won the newly created seat inFlorida's 22nd congressional district for the Democrats. At the state level, Democrats picked up two seats in theFlorida State Senate and five seats in theFlorida House of Representatives as well.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Voter Turnout".Florida Division of Elections. 2021.Archived from the original on June 2, 2015.
  2. ^"2 Days After Election Florida Still Counting Votes". Archived fromthe original on November 12, 2012. RetrievedNovember 9, 2012.
  3. ^'Obama wint ook in Florida' (in Dutch)
  4. ^"Barack Obama closes in on Florida vote victory".BBC News. November 9, 2012. RetrievedOctober 28, 2016.
  5. ^Caputo, Marc (November 8, 2012)."Obama to win Florida; becomes emotional during thank you speech".The Miami Herald.
  6. ^Weaver, Jay; Mazzei, Patricia; Morgan, Curtis (November 8, 2012)."Broward joins Miami -Dade in completing election count".The Miami Herald. Archived fromthe original on November 9, 2012.
  7. ^"Florida May Have Election Results By Noon Saturday". Archived fromthe original on November 13, 2012. RetrievedNovember 9, 2012.
  8. ^"It's official: Obama wins Florida".Los Angeles Times. November 10, 2012. RetrievedNovember 14, 2012.
  9. ^"Obama wins Florida, topping Romney in final tally". RetrievedNovember 14, 2012.
  10. ^"Obama's final win in Florida gives him 332 electoral votes".Reuters. November 10, 2012. RetrievedNovember 14, 2012.
  11. ^ab"Florida".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2020.
  12. ^abcRichard E. Berg-Andersson (December 28, 2011)."Florida Republican primary".The Green Papers. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2012.50 of Florida's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to the Presidential contender receiving the most votes in today's Florida Presidential Primary. (Republican Party of Florida Rule 10 B).
  13. ^"GOP chairman: Florida will be penalized, and 2012 race was set | Iowa Caucuses". Caucuses.desmoinesregister.com. October 25, 2011. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2012.
  14. ^"Gingrich memo on Florida delegate allocation". Archived fromthe original on February 5, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2012.
  15. ^"County Voter Registration By Party as of Jan. 3, 2012"(PDF). Florida Division of Elections. January 15, 2012. p. 5. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2012.
  16. ^"Florida Department of State – Election Results". Florida Department of State: Division of Elections. RetrievedFebruary 22, 2012.
  17. ^Astor, Maggie (September 28, 2011)."Florida Primary: January Date Violates Republican Rules, Complicates Race".International Business Times. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2012.
  18. ^O'Conner, Patrick (September 29, 2011)."Early Florida Primary Would Scramble 2012 Calendar".The Wall Street Journal. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2012.
  19. ^"Florida primary 2012: Delegate dispute could drag on". Politico.com. RetrievedMay 4, 2012.
  20. ^"Gingrich to Challenge Florida's Winner-Take-All Primary Results". nymag.com. February 2012. RetrievedMay 4, 2012.
  21. ^"Gingrich Challenges Florida's Winner-Take-All Delegate Scheme". npr.org. RetrievedMay 4, 2012.
  22. ^"Gingrich challenges Florida GOP winner-take-all rule in attempt to get delegates". PalmBeachPost.com. RetrievedMay 4, 2012.
  23. ^"Gingrich Camp Memo Challenges Florida as Winner-Take-All; RNC Responds". FloridaConservativeNews.com. Archived fromthe original on February 3, 2016. RetrievedMay 4, 2012.
  24. ^"RNC Member: Gingrich Could Contest Fla".nationalreview.com.National Review. RetrievedMay 4, 2012.
  25. ^"Gingrich Memo "RE: Issues Surrounding Florida's Allocation of Delegates"". FoxNews.com Politics. Archived fromthe original on February 5, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 2, 2012.
  26. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  27. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  28. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  29. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  30. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  31. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  32. ^"Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  33. ^abBroward joins Miami-Dade in completing election count
  34. ^Leip, David."Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". RetrievedOctober 28, 2016.
  35. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.
  36. ^Campo-Flores, Arian."Cuban-Americans Move Left".
  37. ^Mazzei, Patricia (November 5, 2024)."Trump Is the First Republican Presidential Candidate to Win Miami-Dade County Since 1988".The New York Times. RetrievedNovember 12, 2024.

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Results breakdown
National
conventions
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Libertarian Party
Green Party
Defunct
Whig Party
Greenback Party
Populist Party
Progressive parties
Reforms
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