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2012 United States Senate election in Utah

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2012 United States Senate election in Utah

← 2006November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)2018 →
Turnout55.4% (voting eligible)[1]
 
NomineeOrrin HatchScott Howell
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote657,608301,873
Percentage65.31%29.98%

County results
Congressional district results
Hatch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Howell:     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elections in Utah
Ballot measures

The2012 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to theUnited States Senate andHouse of Representatives and as various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. SenatorOrrin Hatch won re-election to a seventh and final term against the Democratic candidate, former state senator andIBM executiveScott Howell, in a rematch of the2000 Senate election, with Hatch doing slightly better than in 2000.[2]

Background

[edit]

Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term after winning 62.4% of the vote againstPete Ashdown in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in Utah.Tea Party activists targeted Hatch for a primary challenge, similar to the victory ofMike Lee overBob Bennett in the2010 election.[3]

Republican nomination

[edit]

Convention

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

Declined

Campaign

[edit]

In 2006, incumbent Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term. In 2008, Chaffetz defeated the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative,Chris Cannon, in the 2008 primary forUtah's 3rd congressional district. In 2010,Mike Lee defeatedBob Bennett in the2010 Utah Senate election.[3] In March 2011, just-elected U.S. SenatorMike Lee said he will not endorse Hatch in the primary.[16] In May 2011, Chaffetz told several Utah political insiders that he plans to run. He said he won't make an official decision until afterLabor Day of 2011.[17]

In June 2011, prominent conservative radio talk show hostMark Levin endorsed Hatch.[18] The fiscally conservative501(c)4 organizationClub for Growth encouraged Chaffetz to run. The group cited Hatch's support for theTroubled Asset Relief Program,State Children's Health Insurance Program,No Child Left Behind Act,Bridge to Nowhere, and other votes among the reasons why they opposed his re-election.[19] In an interview withPolitico, Chaffetz stated, "After 34 years of service, I think most Utahans want a change. They want to thank him for his service, but it's time to move on. And for me personally, I think he's been on the wrong side of a host of major issues." The congressman cited Hatch's vote in favor ofEqual Opportunity to Serve Act and theHealth Equity and Access Reform Today Act of 1993.[20] However, Chaffetz ultimately decided against a run.

Endorsements

[edit]
Orrin Hatch

Individuals

Organizations

Dan Liljenquist

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

In a January 2012 UtahPolicy.com poll of 1,291 Salt Lake County Republican caucus participants, 42% chose Hatch, 23% Liljenquist, 5% Herrod, and 30% were undecided.[26] In a January 28, 2012 straw poll of 194 votes at the Box Elder County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, 42% chose Liljenquist, 41% for Hatch, and 17% for Herrod.[27]

Results

[edit]
Republican convention, 1st round results[6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanOrrin Hatch2,24357.25
RepublicanDan Liljenquist1,10828.28
RepublicanChris Herrod42110.75
RepublicanTim Aalders781.99
RepublicanDale Ash180.46
RepublicanDavid Chiu170.43
RepublicanJeremy Friedbaum150.38
RepublicanLoy Arlan Brunson140.36
RepublicanKevin Fisk30.08
RepublicanDub Lawrence10.03
Total votes3,918100
Republican convention, 2nd round results[6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanOrrin Hatch2,31359.19
RepublicanDan Liljenquist1,59540.81
Total votes3,908100

Primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. senator
  • Dan Liljenquist, former state senator

Campaign

[edit]

After the convention, Hatch had $3 million more than Liljenquist.[28]

Endorsements

[edit]
Orrin Hatch

Individuals

Organizations

Dan Liljenquist

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch
Dan
Liljenquist
Other/
Undecided
Utah Data Points/Key Research[34]June 12–19, 2012500±4.4%56%25%18%
Deseret News/KSL-TV[35]June 15–21, 2012737±3.6%60%32%8%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Hatch—>90%
  •   Hatch—80–90%
  •   Hatch—70–80%
  •   Hatch—60–70%
  •   Hatch—50–60%
Republican primary results[36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanOrrin Hatch (incumbent)146,39466.5%
RepublicanDan Liljenquist73,66833.5%
Total votes220,062100.0%

Democratic nomination

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

Results

[edit]

Howell defeated Ashdown 63%-37% to win and avoid a primary.[39]

Democratic convention results[6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticScott Howell-63
DemocraticPete Ashdown-37
Total votes-100

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Scott Howell (D)$421,086$420,779$306$0
Orrin Hatch (R)$11,577,851$13,140,209$779,719$515,845
William Barron (I)$17,157$14,116$3,038$0
Source:Federal Election Commission[41][42][43]

Top contributors

[edit]
Scott HowellContributionOrrin HatchContributionWilliam BarronContribution
International Union of Operating Engineers$10,000OC Tanner Inc$72,010Peace River Citrus Products$2,000
Altaview Orthodontics$5,000Cancer Treatment Centers of America$67,500Cirque Property$1,000
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers$5,000Cerberus Capital Management$65,000
International Association of Iron Workers$5,000Fresenius Medical Care$65,500
Intermountain HealthcareNational Education Association$5,000Blue Cross & Blue Shield$54,500
Shurtleff Construction$5,000Ernst & Young$53,000
St Mark's Hospital$5,000PricewaterhouseCoopers$42,008
United Steelworkers$5,000Herbalife International$41,900
Sutter Health$4,500Marriott International$39,500
IBM Corporation$3,150Apollo Global Management$39,000
Source:OpenSecrets[44]

Top industries

[edit]
Scott HowellContributionOrrin HatchContributionWilliam BarronContribution
Retired$43,100Financial institutions$1,113,746Retired$4,050
Health professionals$17,000Pharmaceuticals/health products$834,601Agribusiness$2,000
Building trade unions$15,000Lobbyists$508,567Real estate$1,000
Hospitals/nursing homes$14,500Insurance$495,968Education$750
Lawyers/law firms$12,250Lawyers/law firms$479,871Misc. business$500
Industrial unions$10,000Health professionals$447,415
General contractors$7,500Real estate$412,394
Automotive$5,000Health services/HMOs$396,132
Public sector unions$5,000Leadership PACs$394,550
High-tech industry$4,900Oil & gas$391,878
Source:OpenSecrets[45]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[46]Solid RNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47]Safe RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[48]Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[49]Safe RNovember 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Scott
Howell (D)
Other/
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[35]June 15–21, 20121,228±2.8%63%29%8%
Utah State University[50]October 8–13, 2012n/a±7.6%67%24%9%
Key Research[51]October 9–13, 2012500±4.4%61%22%17%
Deseret News/KSL[52]October 26 – November 1, 2012870±3.4%63%26%11%
Hypothetical polling

with Dan Liljenquist

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dan
Liljenquist (R)
Scott
Howell (D)
Other/
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[35]June 15–21, 20121228±2.8%48%34%18%

with Jason Chaffetz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Jan
Graham (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53]July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%53%34%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Sam
Granato (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53]July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%54%33%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Jim
Matheson (D)
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[54]June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%46%45%8%
Public Policy Polling[53]July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%42%47%11%
Mason-Dixon[55]August 8–10, 2011625±4.0%49%43%8%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jim
Matheson (D)
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[54]June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%47%47%6%
Public Policy Polling[53]July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%44%45%11%
Mason-Dixon[55]August 8–10, 2011625±4.0%48%43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jan
Graham (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53]July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%55%34%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Sam
Granato (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53]July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%56%31%13%

Republican primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch
Jason
Chaffetz
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV[54]June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%47%44%10%
Public Policy Polling[56]July 8–10, 2011406±4.9%43%47%10%
Mason-Dixon[55]August 8–10, 2011305±5.7%49%39%12%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Utah, 2012[57]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanOrrin Hatch (incumbent)657,60865.31%+2.95%
DemocraticScott Howell301,87329.98%−1.08%
ConstitutionShaun McCausland31,9053.17%−0.60%
JusticeDaniel Geery8,3420.83%N/A
IndependentBill Barron7,1720.71%N/A
Total votes1,006,901100.0%N/A
Republicanhold

By congressional district

[edit]

Hatch won all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[58]

DistrictHatchHowellRepresentative
1st69.84%25.63%Rob Bishop
2nd60.84%33.85%Chris Stewart
3rd70.35%25.14%Jason Chaffetz
4th59.92%35.62%Jim Matheson

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013)."2012 General Election Turnout Rates".George Mason University. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2013. RetrievedApril 6, 2013.
  2. ^"Sen. Orrin Hatch forced into primary for first time since '76, faces Dan Liljenquist in June".Deseret News. April 21, 2012. Archived fromthe original on April 23, 2012. RetrievedMay 9, 2012.
  3. ^abWeiner, Rachel (February 9, 2011)."Orrin Hatch courts tea party activists, Tea Party Express divided".The Washington Post. Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  4. ^abcd"Utah Republican Party Candidates List".[permanent dead link]
  5. ^"L.A. Brunson Campaign Interview and Announcement".K-Talk Radio. October 25, 2011.
  6. ^abcde"Election Results: U.S. Senate Candidates".Utah Republican Party. April 21, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  7. ^Miller, Sean J. (December 8, 2010)."Sen. Hatch: 'I intend to run, and I intend to win'".The Hill. RetrievedDecember 11, 2010.
  8. ^Gehrke, Robert (January 6, 2012)."Rep. Chris Herrod joins campaign to defeat Orrin Hatch".The Salt Lake Tribune.
  9. ^Gehrke, Robert (January 4, 2012)."Liljenquist is in against Hatch".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedJanuary 9, 2012.
  10. ^Catanese, David; Sherman, Jake (August 22, 2011)."Jason Chaffetz is out, but Orrin Hatch isn't in the clear".Politico. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  11. ^Trygstad, Kyle (August 22, 2011)."Chaffetz Passes on Hatch Challenge".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on May 10, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  12. ^Burr, Thomas (February 6, 2012)."Jon Huntsman rules out another political bid – for now".The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived fromthe original on June 4, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2012.
  13. ^Gehrke, Robert (January 6, 2012)."Tea Party leader Kirkham ready to run for governor".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedJanuary 9, 2012.
  14. ^Hesterman, Billy (December 1, 2011)."Philpot to challenge Herbert in 2012".Daily Herald. Archived fromthe original on January 3, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  15. ^Roche, Lisa Riley (June 9, 2011)."Two Utah political heavyweights eyeing key races".Deseret News. Archived fromthe original on June 13, 2011. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  16. ^"Mike Lee: Orrin Hatch Not Getting My Endorsement In 2012 Primary".Huffington Post. February 11, 2011.
  17. ^Gehrke, Robert (June 1, 2011)."Sources say Chaffetz is in against Hatch".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  18. ^"Key National Voice Endorses Orrin Hatch For Senate".Orrin Hatch for Utah. June 14, 2011. Archived fromthe original on July 11, 2011. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  19. ^Keller, Barney (June 1, 2011)."Run, Jason, Run!".Club for Growth. Archived fromthe original on March 24, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  20. ^Sherman, Jake (June 3, 2011)."Jason Chaffetz leaning toward challenging Orrin Hatch".Politico. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  21. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabacad"Endorsements & Quotes".Orrin Hatch for Utah. Archived fromthe original on March 7, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  22. ^"GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements - GOProud, Inc". October 25, 2012. Archived fromthe original on October 25, 2012.
  23. ^abcdefghijklmno"Endorsements".Dan Liljenquist - Conservative for U.S. Senate. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  24. ^"Issues".Dan Liljenquist - Conservative for U.S. Senate. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  25. ^"2012 GOA-PVF Candidates".Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund. Archived fromthe original on December 22, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  26. ^Schott, Bryan (January 20, 2012)."UtahPolicy.com Poll: Salt Lake County Republicans Prefer Hatch over Liljenquist".Utah Policy. Archived fromthe original on July 29, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  27. ^"Liljenquist, Herbert and Swallow lead straw poll results among Box Elder GOP".Cache Valley Daily. February 2, 2012. Archived fromthe original on March 13, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  28. ^Allahpundit (April 21, 2012)."Orrin Hatch fails to clinch GOP nomination in Utah — by 0.9%".Hot Air. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  29. ^Davidson, Lee (June 6, 2012)."Herbert endorses Hatch, calls him 'best choice for Utah'".The Salt Lake Tribune.Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. RetrievedJune 7, 2012.
  30. ^Scoop, The Right (May 23, 2012)."Sarah Palin announces endorsement of Orrin Hatch for US Senate".The Right Scoop.Archived from the original on May 27, 2012.
  31. ^"Grades - Utah".National Rifle Association - Political Victory Fund. Archived fromthe original on October 10, 2012. RetrievedJune 22, 2012.
  32. ^Hartman, Rachel Rose (June 15, 2012)."Santorum endorses Hatch's opponent in Utah primary".ABC News.Archived from the original on June 17, 2012. RetrievedJune 22, 2012.
  33. ^"FreedomWorks for America Endorses Conservative Candidate Dan Liljenquist for Utah Senate".FreedomWorks. April 26, 2012. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  34. ^Utah Data Points/Key Research
  35. ^abcDeseret News/KSL-TV
  36. ^"2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates".Election Hub. November 8, 2016.
  37. ^Roche, Lisa Riley (November 8, 2011)."Pete Ashdown to try again to unseat Sen. Hatch".Deseret News. Archived fromthe original on November 10, 2011. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  38. ^Gehrke, Robert (March 15, 2012)."From president to school board, candidates file for Utah elections".The Salt Lake Tribune. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  39. ^Cortez, Marjorie (April 21, 2012)."Utah Democrats pick Scott Howell as candidate for U.S. Senate".Deseret News. Archived fromthe original on April 23, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  40. ^abcFrandsen, Eric (March 15, 2012)."Hatch faces 9 challengers from within his own party".Cache Valley Daily. Archived fromthe original on March 18, 2012. RetrievedMay 11, 2012.
  41. ^"Howell Campaign Finances".[permanent dead link]
  42. ^"Hatch Campaign Finances".[permanent dead link]
  43. ^"Barron Campaign Finances".[permanent dead link]
  44. ^"Top Contributors 2012 Race: Utah Senate".OpenSecrets.
  45. ^"Top Industries 2012 Race: Utah Senate".OpenSecrets.
  46. ^"2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".The Cook Political Report. Archived fromthe original on August 29, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  47. ^"2012 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  48. ^"2012 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  49. ^"2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  50. ^Utah State University
  51. ^Key Research
  52. ^Deseret News/KSL
  53. ^abcdefPublic Policy Polling
  54. ^abcDeseret News/KSL-TV
  55. ^abcMason-Dixon
  56. ^Public Policy Polling
  57. ^"Election Results - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections".
  58. ^"Utah 2012 sen-by-cd".

External links

[edit]

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