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2012 United States Senate election in New York

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2012 United States Senate election in New York

← 2010 (special)November 6, 20122018 →
Turnout53.2% (voting eligible)[1]
 
NomineeKirsten GillibrandWendy Long
PartyDemocraticRepublican
AllianceConservative
Popular vote4,822,3301,758,702
Percentage72.21%26.34%

County results
Congressional district results
Gillibrand:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Long:     40–50%     50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Kirsten Gillibrand
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Kirsten Gillibrand
Democratic

Elections in New York State
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
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Post-consolidation:

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County Executive elections

The2012 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with theU.S. presidential election, other elections to theUnited States Senate andHouse of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

GovernorDavid Paterson appointed then-U.S. RepresentativeKirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. senator from New York until the2010 special election, succeeding former U.S. SenatorHillary Clinton, who resigned to serve asU.S. Secretary of State in theObama administration. Gillibrand won thespecial election in 2010 with 62.95% of the vote over former U.S. RepresentativeJoseph DioGuardi.

IncumbentDemocratic U.S. SenatorKirsten Gillibrand won re-election to her first full term by a landslide. She was opposed in the general election byWendy Long (who ran on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets) and by three minor party candidates. Gillibrand was re-elected with 72% of the vote. She carried 60 out of 62 counties statewide, losing only Wyoming and Allegany counties.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Gillibrand was endorsed by theIndependence Party of New York and theWorking Families Party and appeared on the ballot lines of both of those parties in the general election.[3][4]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

The 2012 New York State Republican Convention took place on March 16, 2012.[8] Candidates Wendy Long, George Maragos, and Congressman Bob Turner each reached the threshold of 25% of the weighted vote necessary to qualify for the June 26 primary ballot; however, none of the candidates achieved a majority.[9] Long prevailed by a sizeable margin in the June 26 Republican primary, receiving 50.9% of the vote; Turner received 35.6% and Maragos 13.5%.[10]

Long was designated as the nominee for theConservative Party of New York State, and appeared on its ballot line in the general election as well as the Republican Party line.[4][11]

Withdrew

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Wendy
Long
George
Maragos
Bob
Turner
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[14]March 28 – April 2, 2012372±5.1%11%7%19%2%61%
Siena College[15]April 1–4, 2012218±6.6%10%5%19%66%
Siena College[16]May 6–10, 2012205±6.8%12%6%15%67%
Siena College[17]June 3–6, 2012201±6.9%11%3%16%70%

Endorsements

[edit]
Wendy Long

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Bob Turner

Source: Update for US Senate Election NY 2012[18]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Long
  •   Long—80–90%
  •   Long—70–80%
  •   Long—60–70%
  •   Long—50–60%
  •   Long—40–50%
Turner
  •   Turner—40–50%
  •   Turner—50–60%
  •   Turner—60–70%
  •   Turner—70–80%
Maragos
  •   Maragos—40–50%
Republican primary results[19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanWendy Long75,92450.2%
RepublicanBob Turner54,19635.9%
RepublicanGeorge Maragos21,00213.9%
Total votes151,122100.0%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • Colia Clark (Green), civil rights activist and candidate for theU.S. Senate in 2010[20]
  • Chris Edes (Libertarian)
  • Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic, Working Families, Independence), incumbent U.S. senator
  • Wendy Long (Republican, Conservative), attorney
  • John Mangelli (Common Sense Party)

Debates

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)$13,778,867$3,734,097$10,541,156$0
Wendy Long (R)$336,976$240,564$96,411$250,077
Chris Edes (L)$2,017$668$1,348$0
John Mangelli (I)$43,819$43,820$0$22,120
Source:Federal Election Commission[21][22][23][24]

Top contributors

[edit]

[25]

Kirsten GillibrandContributionWendy LongContribution
Boies, Schiller & Flexner$394,664Citizens United$10,000
Davis Polk & Wardwell$314,600Susan B. Anthony List$10,000
Corning Inc.$150,650Davis, Polk & Wardwell$8,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co$143,800Kirkland & Ellis$7,000
Morgan Stanley$140,800Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz$6,000
National Amusements Inc.$126,850Alta Partners$5,500
Goldman Sachs$117,400Actimize$5,000
Blackstone Group$106,700Carlyle Group$5,000
Sullivan & Cromwell$100,750Credit Suisse Group$5,000
Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett$95,700Crow Holdings$5,000

Top industries

[edit]

[26]

Kirsten GillibrandContributionWendy LongContribution
Lawyers/law firms$4,050,294Lawyers/law firms$38,550
Financial institutions$2,748,640Financial institutions$31,750
Real estate$1,257,504Real estate$26,250
Retired$921,738Retired$25,050
Women's issues$853,517Misc. finance$16,000
Entertainment industry$764,677Women's issues$15,150
Lobbyists$723,596Republican/Conservative$11,250
Misc. finance$644,953Education$7,250
Business services$621,286Misc. business$7,000
Insurance$518,275Construction services$5,000

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[27]Solid DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28]Safe DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[29]Safe DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[30]Safe DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Wendy
Long (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[14]March 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%58%25%1%13%
Siena College[15]April 1–4, 2012808±3.4%63%23%14%
Siena College[16]May 6–10, 2012766±3.5%60%26%14%
Quinnipiac[31]May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%58%24%1%15%
Siena College[17]June 3–6, 2012807±3.4%65%22%12%
Siena College[32]July 10–15, 2012758±3.6%62%25%13%
Quinnipiac[33]July 17–23, 20121,779±2.3%57%24%1%16%
Siena College[34]August 14–19, 2012671±3.8%65%22%13%
Quinnipiac[35]September 4–9, 20121,468±2.5%64%27%9%
Marist[36]October 18–21, 2012565±4.1%68%24%8%
Siena College[37]October 22–24, 2012750±3.6%67%24%8%
SurveyUSA[38]October 23–25, 2012554±4.1%64%22%7%7%
Hypothetical polling

with George Maragos

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
George
Maragos (R)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[39]November 8–13, 2011803±3.5%65%17%18%
Siena College[40]January 8–12, 2012805±3.5%63%22%15%
Siena College[41]January 29 – February 1, 2012807±3.4%63%20%17%
SurveyUSA[42]February 24–26, 2012518±4.4%53%23%25%
Siena College[43]February 26–29, 2012808±3.4%68%19%13%
Quinnipiac[14]March 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%57%23%2%15%
Siena College[15]April 1–4, 2012808±3.4%65%21%14%
Siena College[16]May 6–10, 2012766±3.5%60%25%15%
Quinnipiac[31]May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%57%24%1%16%
Siena College[17]June 3–6, 2012807±3.4%65%23%13%

with Bob Turner

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Bob
Turner (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[14]March 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%57%27%1%13%
Siena College[15]April 1–4, 2012808±3.4%65%24%11%
Siena College[16]May 6–10, 2012766±3.5%59%25%15%
Quinnipiac[31]May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%56%26%0%15%
Siena College[17]June 3–6, 2012807±3.4%63%25%11%

with Marc Cenedella

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Marc
Cenedella (R)
Undecided
Siena College[44]January 29 – February 1, 2012807±3.4%65%18%17%

with Harry Wilson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Harry
Wilson (R)
Undecided
Siena College[39]November 8–13, 2011803±3.5%63%21%16%
Siena College[40]January 8–12, 2012805±3.5%63%23%14%

Results

[edit]
2012 United States Senate election in New York[45]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticKirsten Gillibrand4,432,52566.38%+11.38%
Working FamiliesKirsten Gillibrand251,2923.76%−0.29%
IndependenceKirsten Gillibrand138,5132.07%−1.83%
TotalKirsten Gillibrand (incumbent)4,822,33072.21%+9.26%
RepublicanWendy Long1,517,57822.73%−6.96%
ConservativeWendy Long241,1243.61%−1.81%
TotalWendy Long1,758,70226.34%−8.77%
GreenColia Clark42,5910.64%−0.15%
LibertarianChris Edes32,0020.48%+0.07%
IndependentJohn Mangelli22,0410.33%N/A
Total votes6,677,666100.00%N/A
Democratichold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Gillibrand won all 27 congressional districts, including six held by Republicans.[46] She won all but two with over 60% of the vote, with the 27th being her weakest with only 55% of the vote.

DistrictGillibrandLongRepresentative
1st62.13%36.58%Tim Bishop
2nd63.33%35.51%Peter T. King
3rd62.51%36.28%Steve Israel
4th66.17%32.88%Carolyn McCarthy
5th92.32%7.21%Gregory Meeks
6th75.99%22.58%Grace Meng
7th90.67%7.65%Nydia Velázquez
8th91.75%7.35%Hakeem Jeffries
9th89.59%9.33%Yvette Clarke
10th81.28%17.15%Jerry Nadler
11th64.5%34.23%Michael Grimm
12th81.74%16.49%Carolyn Maloney
13th95.05%3.91%Charles B. Rangel
14th84.85%13.76%Joe Crowley
15th96.89%2.7%Jose Serrano
16th79.78%19.23%Eliot Engel
17th68.41%30.33%Nita Lowey
18th64.33%34.22%Sean Patrick Maloney
19th65.98%32.34%Chris Gibson
20th71.07%27.26%Paul Tonko
21st65.41%33.1%Bill Owens
22nd61.77%36.05%Richard L. Hanna
23rd58.95%39.13%Tom Reed
24th65.34%32.06%Dan Maffei
25th66.81%31.45%Louise Slaughter
26th73.31%24.99%Brian Higgins
27th55.55%42.71%Chris Collins

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013)."2012 General Election Turnout Rates".George Mason University. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2013. RetrievedApril 6, 2013.
  2. ^Hill, Michael (November 3, 2010)."Day after win, NY Sen. Gillibrand is running again". Associated Press. RetrievedDecember 28, 2010.
  3. ^Johnson, Michael (March 12, 2012)."State Independence Party Backs Gillibrand".Capital Tonight. Archived fromthe original on March 20, 2012. RetrievedMay 6, 2012.
  4. ^ab"New York Democrats back Kirsten Gillibrand for US Senate; Conservatives pick Wendy Long".The Post-Standard. Associated Press. March 19, 2012. RetrievedMay 6, 2012.
  5. ^Benjamin, Liz (January 29, 2012)."A New Challenger To Gillibrand?".Capital Tonight. Archived fromthe original on February 8, 2012. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2012.
  6. ^"U.S. Senate Hopeful Speaks to Rockland Republicans - Pearl River, NY Patch".patch.com. Archived fromthe original on July 27, 2011. RetrievedJune 3, 2011.
  7. ^Campbell, Colin (March 13, 2012)."Bob Turner Announces U.S. Senate Campaign Against Kirsten Gillibrand".Politicker. RetrievedMarch 13, 2012.
  8. ^Seiler, Casey (February 19, 2012).Save the date: GOP plans March 16 convention.Capitol Confidential (Albany Times-Union). Retrieved February 19, 2012.
  9. ^Benjamin, Liz (March 16, 2012).Three-Way GOP Primary For US Senate.Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  10. ^"Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand".Wall Street Journal. News Corporation. June 27, 2012. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2012. RetrievedJune 27, 2012.
  11. ^"Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand".WSJ.com. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2012.
  12. ^Vielkind, Jimmy (February 29, 2012)."Joe Carvin of Rye also challenging Gillibrand".Albany Times Union. RetrievedFebruary 29, 2012.
  13. ^Benjamin, Elizabeth (March 16, 2012).Carvin Out Of US Senate Race (Updated).Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  14. ^abcd"Quinnipiac". Archived fromthe original on October 8, 2012.
  15. ^abcd"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on April 24, 2012.
  16. ^abcd"Siena College"(PDF).
  17. ^abcd"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 1, 2012.
  18. ^"NYS Board of Elections U.S. Senator Election Returns November 6, 2012"(PDF).New York State Board of Elections. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 5, 2013.
  19. ^"2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates".Election Hub. November 8, 2016.
  20. ^"Liberal Alternatives To Kirsten Gillibrand".Irregular Times. April 16, 2012. Archived from the original on May 5, 2012. RetrievedMay 6, 2012.
  21. ^"Gillibrand Campaign Finances".fec.gov.[permanent dead link]
  22. ^"Long Campaign Finances".fec.gov.[permanent dead link]
  23. ^"Mangelli Campaign Finances".fec.gov.[permanent dead link]
  24. ^"Edes Campaign Finances".fec.gov.[permanent dead link]
  25. ^"New York Senate Race".opensecrets.org.
  26. ^"Kansas District 04 Race".opensecrets.org.
  27. ^"2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".The Cook Political Report. Archived fromthe original on August 29, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  28. ^"2012 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  29. ^"2012 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  30. ^"2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  31. ^abcUniversity, Quinnipiac."Release Detail".Quinnipiac University. Archived fromthe original on May 31, 2012.
  32. ^"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on October 4, 2012.
  33. ^University, Quinnipiac."Release Detail".Quinnipiac University. Archived fromthe original on July 28, 2012.
  34. ^"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on October 4, 2012.
  35. ^University, Quinnipiac."Release Detail".Quinnipiac University. Archived fromthe original on September 14, 2012.
  36. ^"Marist"(PDF).
  37. ^"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on October 30, 2012.
  38. ^"SurveyUSA Election Poll #20004".www.surveyusa.com.
  39. ^ab"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 19, 2011.
  40. ^ab"Siena College"(PDF).
  41. ^"Wayback Machine"(PDF).www.siena.edu.
  42. ^"SurveyUSA News Poll #19027".www.surveyusa.com.
  43. ^"Siena College"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 14, 2012.
  44. ^"Siena College"(PDF).
  45. ^"2012 U.S. Senate election results"(PDF).Elections.NY.gov. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on August 7, 2019. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2019.
  46. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.

External links

[edit]

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