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2012 United States Senate election in Florida

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2012 United States Senate election in Florida
← 2006November 6, 20122018 →
Turnout63.5% (voting eligible)[1]
 
NomineeBill NelsonConnie Mack IV
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote4,523,4513,458,267
Percentage55.23%42.23%
County results
Congressional district results
Nelson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%
Mack:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Bill Nelson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Nelson[2]
Democratic

Elections in Florida
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The2012 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2012, alongside apresidential election, other elections to theHouse andSenate, as well as various state and local elections. The primary election was held August 14, 2012. Incumbent SenatorBill Nelson won reelection to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. RepresentativeConnie Mack IV (whose father,Connie Mack III, was Nelson's direct predecessor in that Senate seat) by 13%, winning 55% to 42%. Nelson defeated Mack by over 1 million votes.

UntilDonald Trump won 4.6 million votes in the2016 presidential election andMarco Rubio won 4.8 million votes in the2016 Senate election, Nelson recorded the most votes in Florida history. As of 2024[update], this was the last time that a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election in Florida. This is also the last time a Democrat carried the following counties in a statewide election:Brevard,Flagler,Franklin,Hamilton,Hendry,Hernando,Liberty,Madison,Manatee,Marion,Okeechobee,Pasco,Polk,Sarasota, andVolusia.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBill Nelson (incumbent)684,80478.7
DemocraticGlenn Burkett184,81521.3
Total votes869,619100.0

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Qualified

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George
LeMieux		Connie
Mack IV		Mike
McCalister		Dave
Weldon		Someone
else		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[27]May 31 – June 3, 2012448±4.6%13%34%10%6%9%28%
Quinnipiac[28]June 12–18, 2012698±3.7%8%41%5%3%1%39%
Public Policy Polling[29]July 26–29, 2012500±4.4%—47%10%14%6%23%

Endorsements

[edit]
George LeMieux (withdrawn)

Individuals

Connie Mack IV

Individuals

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Mack
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Weldon
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanConnie Mack IV657,33158.7
RepublicanDave Weldon226,08320.2
RepublicanMike McCalister155,42113.9
RepublicanMarielena Stuart81,8087.3
Total votes1,120,643100.0

General election

[edit]

Early in the race, Nelson appeared to be vulnerable, with some earlier polls showing Mack leading. However, in the last few weeks, with new polls conducted, it appeared as though Nelson was headed for a victory. The last poll placed him five percentage points ahead of Mack; Nelson would win easily by 13 percentage points. Nelson performed well in Southeast Florida (the Miami area),Tampa,Gainesville, typically Democratic areas. Nelson, however, managed to win in areas that typically lean Republican. He won inDuval County, home ofJacksonville, andVolusia County, home ofDaytona Beach. Nelson's ability to outperformPresidentObama led to him winning the election easily. Obama would stillwin Florida, but by just about 74,000 votes, and less than a percentage point. Nelson began his third term in the Senate on January 3, 2013.

Candidates

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Only one debate was held, hosted by Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association occurred on October 17 at theNova Southeastern University campus in Davie.

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Bill Nelson (D)$13,404,998$15,494,167$994,324$0
Connie Mack (R)$7,272,224$7,526,150$155,076$81,880
Chris Borgia (I)$12,344$12,198$145$9,950
Bill Gaylor (I)$19,604$19,195$0$0
Source:Federal Election Commission[50][51][52][53]

Top contributors

[edit]
Bill NelsonContributionConnie MackContributionBill GaylorContribution
Morgan & Morgan$138,150Club for Growth$189,168Bill & Sheila Gaylor Insurance Professionals$7,905
Finmeccanica$71,967Elliott Management Corporation$46,997Circle Redmont$1,432
InDyne, Inc.$64,735Koch Industries$33,500
Harris Corporation$59,750Vestar Capital Partners$32,000
Akerman Senterfitt LLP$59,300Island Doctors$27,400
Greenberg Traurig$52,589Adams & Diaco$25,000
Kindred Healthcare$21,000Health Management Associates$21,000
Holland & Knight$46,747Flo-Sun Inc$18,500
Leon Medical Centers$45,800US Sugar Corporation$18,000
Vestar Capital Partners$40,650MasTec, Inc.$17,800
Source:OpenSecrets[54]

Top industries

[edit]
Bill NelsonContributionConnie MackContributionBill GaylorContribution
Lawyers/law firms$2,383,484Retired$885,121Retired$1,500
Retired$938,280Republican/Conservative$412,944
Real estate$606,253Financial institutions$360,334
Health professionals$529,282Real estate$298,642
Lobbyists$493,087Leadership PACs$280,500
Financial institutions$418,915Misc. finance$216,836
Hospitals/nursing homes$364,617Health professionals$199,159
Leadership PACs$337,000Lawyers/law firms$169,921
Insurance industry$319,788Petroleum industry$136,400
Health services/HMOs$276,500Business services$128,777
Source:OpenSecrets[55]

Independent expenditures

[edit]

In early October 2012,Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this election, and three were other Senate elections.[56] In Florida, the money was to be spent by its affiliate,American Crossroads.[56]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[57]Lean DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[58]Likely DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[59]Likely DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[60]Lean DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Connie
Mack IV (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[61]October 9–10, 2010448±4.6%42%33%—25%
Public Policy Polling[62]December 17–20, 20101,034±3.0%44%36%—20%
Mason-Dixon[63]February 9–10, 2011625±4.0%45%40%—15%
Public Policy Polling[64]March 24–27, 2011500±4.4%47%34%—18%
Quinnipiac[65]October 31 – November 7, 20111,185±2.9%42%40%1%16%
Rasmussen Reports[66]November 17, 2011500±4.5%39%43%5%13%
Public Policy Polling[67]November 28 – December 1, 2011700±3.7%46%35%—19%
Quinnipiac[68]January 4–8, 20121,412±2.6%41%40%1%16%
Suffolk University[69]January 22–24, 2012600±4.4%42%32%1%25%
Mason-Dixon[70]January 24–26, 2012800±3.5%45%42%—13%
Rasmussen Reports[71]February 13, 2012500±4.5%41%41%5%12%
Rasmussen Reports[72]March 13, 2012500±4.5%36%43%5%16%
Quinnipiac[73]March 20–26, 20121,228±2.8%44%36%3%17%
Public Policy Polling[74]April 12–15, 2012700±3.7%47%37%—17%
Rasmussen Reports[75]April 25, 2012500±4.5%47%36%10%7%
Quinnipiac[76]May 15–21, 20121,722±2.4%41%42%3%15%
Marist[77]May 17–20, 20121,078±3.0%46%42%—12%
Public Policy Polling[27]May 31 – June 3, 2012642±3.9%49%36%—15%
Quinnipiac[28]June 12–18, 20121,697±2.4%43%39%—15%
Quinnipiac[78]June 19–25, 20121,200±2.8%41%40%1%17%
Rasmussen Reports[75]July 9, 2012500±4.5%37%46%7%10%
Mason-Dixon[79]July 9–11, 2012800±3.5%47%42%—11%
Survey USA[80]July 17–19, 2012647±3.9%42%48%2%8%
Public Policy Polling[29]July 26–29, 2012871±3.3%45%43%—13%
Quinnipiac[81]July 24–30, 20121,177±2.9%47%40%1%12%
Rasmussen Reports[75]August 15, 2012500±4.5%47%40%3%10%
Quinnipiac[82]August 15–21, 20121,241±2.8%50%41%—9%
Public Policy Polling[83]August 31 – September 2, 20121,548±2.5%45%38%—17%
SurveyUSA[84]September 7–9, 2012596±4.1%47%36%3%9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[85]September 9–11, 2012980±3.1%51%37%—12%
Rasmussen Reports[75]September 12, 2012500±4.5%47%40%5%8%
Fox News Poll[86]September 16–18, 2012829±3.0%49%35%2%12%
TBT/Miami Herald[87]September 17–19, 2012800±3.5%48%40%—11%
Suffolk University[88]September 27–30, 2012600±4.0%40%34%5%20%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[89]September 30 – October 1, 2012890±3.3%52%41%—7%
Rasmussen Reports[75]October 4, 2012500±4.5%52%41%1%6%
University of North Florida[90]October 1–9, 2012800±3.5%50%40%—10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[91]October 7–9, 2012988±3.1%52%39%—9%
TBT/Miami Herald[92]October 8–10, 2012800±3.5%47%42%4%7%
Rasmussen Reports[75]October 11, 2012750±4.0%46%45%5%5%
Public Policy Polling[93]October 12–14, 2012791±3.4%45%37%—18%
SurveyUSA[94]October 17–18, 2012600±4.1%48%40%4%8%
Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers/WPTV[95]October 17–18, 2012800±4.0%45%41%—14%
Rasmussen Reports[75]October 18, 2012750±4.0%48%43%2%7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[96]October 18–20, 2012502±4.5%56%39%4%—
Pharos Research[97]October 19–21, 2012759±3.6%52%44%—5%
Sunshine State News/VSS[98]October 22–24, 20121,001±3.1%49%44%—7%
Mason-Dixon[99]October 22–24, 2012625±4.0%47%44%—9%
Rasmussen Reports[75]October 25, 2012750±4.0%49%46%2%3%
WFLA-TV/SurveyUSA[100]October 25–27, 2012595±4.1%48%41%4%7%
CBS/Quinnipiac University[101]October 23–28, 20121,073±3.0%52%39%—9%
Public Policy Polling[102]October 26–28, 2012687±3.7%50%42%—9%
Zogby/Newsmax[103]October 26–28, 2012827±3.5%50%41%—9%
Zogby/Newsmax[104]October 27–29, 2012828±3.5%50%41%—9%
Gravis Marketing[105]October 30, 2012549±4.2%49%46%—5%
Reuters/Ipsos[106]October 29–31, 2012716±4.2%52%42%1%6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[107]October 30 – November 1, 20121,545±2.5%52%43%1%5%
Mason-Dixon[108]October 30 – November 1, 2012800±3.5%49%43%4%—
Angus Reid Public Opinion[109]November 1–3, 2012525±4.3%53%45%2%—
Public Policy Polling[110]November 3–4, 2012955±3.2%51%46%—3%
Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Adam
Hasner		George
LeMieux		Connie
Mack IV		Mike
McCalister		Craig
Miller		Other/
Undecided
Quinnipiac[111]July 27 – August 2, 2011510±4.3%6%12%—15%8%60%
Quinnipiac[112]September 14–19, 2011374±5.1%5%17%—5%11%62%
Public Policy Polling[113]September 22–25, 2011472±4.5%9%13%—17%3%58%
Quinnipiac[65]October 31 – November 7, 2011513±4.3%2%9%32%6%2%51%
Public Policy Polling[114]November 28–30, 2011470±4.5%3%12%40%4%3%38%
Dixie Strategies/First Coast News[115]January 23–25, 20122,567±1.93%3.81%6.91%28.88%3.36%1.78%55.26%
Mason-Dixon[70]January 24–26, 2012500±4.5%4%12%38%7%1%38%
Miami Herald/War Room Logistics[116]January 27, 20121,632±2.5%2.7%6.2%33.0%3.2%2.3%52.6%
Public Policy Polling[117]January 28, 2012387±5.0%4%6%36%5%3%46%
Public Policy Polling[118]January 28–29, 2012733±3.6%4%8%36%5%3%44%
Public Policy Polling[119]January 28–30, 20121,087±3%3%8%39%4%3%42%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Haridopolos		Adam
Hasner		George
LeMieux		Mike
McCalister		Other/
Undecided
Sunshine State Communications[120]May 12–13, 2011458±4.58%11%0%9%4%64%
Quinnipiac[121]May 17–23, 2011463±4.6%13%4%14%—64%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Vern
Buchanan		Jennifer
Carroll		Mike
Haridopolos		Adam
Hasner		George
LeMieux		Nick
Loeb		Will
McBride		Mike
McCalister		Joe
Scarborough		Daniel
Webster		Other/
Undecided
Suffolk University/7 News[122]April 10–12, 2011217±4%5%3%2%1%4%1%3%0%6%7%67%

General election

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Vern
Buchanan (R)		OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon[123]August 18–22, 2011625±4.0%45%35%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Jeb
Bush (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[124]July 16–18, 2010900±3.26%46%44%—9%
Public Policy Polling[62]December 17–20, 20101,034±3.0%44%49%—7%
Mason-Dixon[63]February 9–10, 2011625±4.0%41%49%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Mike
Haridopolos (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[62]December 17–20, 20101,034±3.0%44%32%—24%
Mason-Dixon[63]February 9–10, 2011625±4.0%48%27%—25%
Public Policy Polling[64]March 24–27, 2011500±4.4%50%34%—17%
Quinnipiac[121]May 17–23, 20111,196±2.8%47%26%2%22%
Public Policy Polling[125]June 16–19, 2011848±3.4%47%35%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Adam
Hasner (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[62]December 17–20, 20101,034±3.0%46%30%—25%
Mason-Dixon[63]February 9–10, 2011625±4.0%46%24%—30%
Public Policy Polling[64]March 24–27, 2011500±4.4%48%32%—20%
Quinnipiac[121]May 17–23, 20111,196±2.8%48%23%3%24%
Public Policy Polling[125]June 16–19, 2011848±3.4%47%35%—19%
Mason-Dixon[123]August 18–22, 2011625±4.0%45%34%—21%
Public Policy Polling[126]September 22–25, 2011476±4.5%49%35%—16%
Rasmussen Reports[66]November 17, 2011500±4.5%40%31%9%19%
Public Policy Polling[67]November 28 – December 1, 2011700±3.7%48%33%—19%
Suffolk University[69]January 22–24, 2012600±4.4%47%23%2%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		George
LeMieux (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[124]July 16–18, 2010900±3.26%49%28%—23%
Public Policy Polling[62]December 17–20, 20101,034±3.0%47%36%—17%
Mason-Dixon[63]February 9–10, 2011625±4.0%49%35%—16%
Public Policy Polling[64]March 24–27, 2011500±4.4%48%33%—19%
Quinnipiac[121]May 17–23, 20111,196±2.8%47%27%2%22%
Public Policy Polling[125]June 16–19, 2011848±3.4%46%35%—19%
Mason-Dixon[123]August 18–22, 2011625±4.0%49%34%—17%
Public Policy Polling[126]September 22–25, 2011476±4.5%49%35%—15%
Rasmussen Reports[66]November 17, 2011500±4.5%39%33%10%18%
Public Policy Polling[67]November 28 – December 1, 2011700±3.7%47%32%—20%
Suffolk University[69]January 22–24, 2012600±4.4%46%22%2%30%
Mason-Dixon[70]January 24–26, 2012800±3.5%48%33%—19%
Rasmussen Reports[71]February 13, 2012500±4.5%45%35%5%15%
Rasmussen Reports[72]March 13, 2012500±4.5%41%38%5%17%
Public Policy Polling[74]April 12–15, 2012700±3.7%48%34%—18%
Rasmussen Reports[75]April 25, 2012500±4.5%44%30%9%17%
Marist[77]May 17–20, 20121,078±3%46%42%—12%
Public Policy Polling[27]May 31 – June 3, 2012642±3.9%48%35%—17%
Quinnipiac[28]June 12–18, 20121,697±2.4%47%32%1%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Rush
Limbaugh (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[61]October 9–10, 2010448±4.6%50%36%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Mike
McCalister (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[29]July 26–29, 2012871±3.3%45%40%—15%
Quinnipiac[28]June 12–18, 20121,697±2.4%45%34%1%18%
Public Policy Polling[27]May 31 – June 3, 2012642±3.9%47%33%—20%
Rasmussen Reports[75]April 25, 2012500±4.5%48%29%7%15%
Public Policy Polling[74]April 12–15, 2012700±3.7%47%35%—19%
Rasmussen Reports[72]March 13, 2012500±4.5%42%38%4%15%
Rasmussen Reports[71]February 13, 2012500±4.5%43%37%5%15%
Suffolk University[69]January 22–24, 2012600±4.4%45%26%2%28%
Public Policy Polling[67]November 28 – December 1, 2011700±3.7%47%32%—21%
Public Policy Polling[126]September 22–25, 2011476±4.5%47%34%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Craig
Miller (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[67]November 28 – December 1, 2011700±3.7%49%30%—21%
Public Policy Polling[126]September 22–25, 2011476±4.5%49%32%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Joe
Scarborough (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[64]March 24–27, 2011500±4.4%45%32%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Jimmy
Wales (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[64]March 24–27, 2011500±4.4%47%28%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Dave
Weldon (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[29]July 26–29, 2012871±3.3%46%39%—15%
Quinnipiac[28]June 12–18, 20121,697±2.4%47%31%1%19%
Public Policy Polling[27]May 31 – June 3, 2012642±3.9%47%31%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Nelson (D)		Allen
West (R)		OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon[123]August 18–22, 2011625±4.0%44%38%—18%

Results

[edit]
State Senate district results
United States Senate election in Florida, 2012[127]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticBill Nelson (incumbent)4,523,45155.23%−5.07%
RepublicanConnie Mack IV3,458,26742.23%+4.13%
IndependentBill Gaylor126,0791.54%N/A
IndependentChris Borgia82,0891.00%N/A
Write-in600.0N/A
Total votes8,189,946100.00%N/A
Democratichold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Nelson won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including ten that elected Republicans.[128]

DistrictNelsonMackRepresentative
1st35.83%61.28%Jeff Miller
2nd54.07%43.43%Steve Southerland
3rd44.66%52.39%Corrine Brown (112th Congress)
Ted Yoho (113th Congress)
4th42.16%54.58%Ander Crenshaw
5th73.70%24.22%Rich Nugent (112th Congress)
Corrine Brown (113th Congress)
6th47.91%48.98%Cliff Stearns (112th Congress)
Ron DeSantis (113th Congress)
7th53.65%43.81%John Mica
8th49.47%47.15%Bill Posey
9th66.35%31.16%Gus Bilirakis (112th Congress)
Alan Grayson (113th Congress)
10th52.04%45.20%Bill Young (112th Congress)
Daniel Webster (113th Congress)
11th48.07%48.40%Kathy Castor (112th Congress)
Rich Nugent (113th Congress)
12th52.57%43.83%Dennis A. Ross (112th Congress)
Gus Bilirakis (113th Congress)
13th57.44%39.10%Vern Buchanan (112th Congress)
Bill Young (113th Congress)
14th69.28%28.45%Connie Mack IV (112th Congress)
Kathy Castor (113th Congress)
15th52.21%44.94%Bill Posey (112th Congress)
Dennis A. Ross (113th Congress)
16th50.39%46.70%Tom Rooney (112th Congress)
Vern Buchanan (113th Congress)
17th47.22%49.18%Frederica Wilson (112th Congress)
Tom Rooney (113th Congress)
18th53.60%44.47%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (112th Congress)
Patrick Murphy (113th Congress)
19th42.66%54.51%Ted Deutch (112th Congress)
Trey Radel (113th Congress)
20th83.73%15.04%Debbie Wasserman Schultz (112th Congress)
Alcee Hastings (113th Congress)
21st65.65%32.87%Mario Díaz-Balart (112th Congress)
Ted Deutch (113th Congress)
22nd58.84%39.62%Allen West (112th Congress)
Lois Frankel (113th Congress)
23rd64.73%33.81%Alcee Hastings (112th Congress)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (113th Congress)
24th87.29%11.71%Sandy Adams (112th Congress)
Frederica Wilson (113th Congress)
25th50.74%47.12%David Rivera (112th Congress)
Mario Díaz-Balart (113th Congress)
26th54.90%43.56%Joe Garcia
27th55.20%43.33%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013)."2012 General Election Turnout Rates".George Mason University. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2013. RetrievedApril 3, 2013.
  2. ^Siegel, Elyse (November 6, 2012)."Bill Nelson Election Results: Democrat Defeats Connie Mack In Florida Senate Race". Huffingtonpost.com. RetrievedNovember 7, 2012.
  3. ^"Candidate Tracking system - Florida Division of Elections - Department of State". Election.dos.state.fl.us. Archived fromthe original on December 24, 2012. RetrievedNovember 7, 2012.
  4. ^"Rep. Connie Mack IV Announces Run for U.S. Senate".Fox News. November 28, 2011.
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