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2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
← 2010November 6, 20122014 →
 
NomineeSteve DainesKim Gillan
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote255,468204,939
Percentage53.3%42.7%
County results
Daines:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gillan:     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Denny Rehberg
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Steve Daines
Republican

Elections in Montana
Presidential elections
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2004
2008
2016
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2008
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U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Montana's at-large congressional district

The2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent thestate ofMontana in theUnited States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. IncumbentDenny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in theU.S. Senate.[1] Aprimary election was held on June 5, 2012.[2]Republican businessmanSteve Daines won the open seat.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary
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Withdrawn

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Hypothetical polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Abarr		Steve
Daines		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[8]June 16–19, 2011382± 5.0%14%22%—64%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanSteve Daines82,84371.2
RepublicanEric Brosten21,01218.1
RepublicanVincent Melkus12,42010.7
Total votes116,275100.0

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kim
Gillan		Sam
Rankin		Diane
Smith		Dave
Strohmaier		Rob
Stutz		Jason
Ward		Franke
Wilmer		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%21%4%13%9%1%0%11%41%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticKim Gillan25,07731.0
DemocraticFranke Wilmer14,83618.4
DemocraticDiane Smith12,61815.6
DemocraticDave Strohmaier11,36614.1
DemocraticSam Rankin9,38211.6
DemocraticJason Ward4,9596.1
DemocraticRob Stutz2,5863.2
Total votes80,824100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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General election

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Endorsements

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Steve Daines (R)

Organizations

Kim Gillan (D)

Organizations

Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Daines (R)		Kim
Gillan (D)		David
Kaiser (L)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[24]November 2–3, 2012737± 3.6%48%44%3%4%
Mason-Dixon[25]October 29–31, 2012625± 4.0%51%40%1%8%
Pharos Research Group[26]October 26–28, 2012799± 4.9%52%45%–4%
Pharos Research Group[27]October 19–21, 2012400± 4.9%47%41%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[28]October 8–10, 2012737± 3.6%43%34%10%12%
MSU-Billings[29]September 27–30, 2012477± 4.6%36%23%3%38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)[30]September 23–26, 2012600± 4.0%36%34%5%25%
Mason-Dixon[31]September 17–19, 2012625± 4.0%46%38%2%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[32]September 10–11, 2012656± 3.8%40%37%9%15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[33]April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%33%27%—40%
Public Policy Polling (D)[34]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%35%27%—38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Abarr (R)		Kim
Gillan (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%26%—44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Abarr (R)		Franke
Wilmer (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%33%25%—42%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Daines (R)		Franke
Wilmer (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[20]April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%36%25%—39%
Public Policy Polling[35]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%35%25%—40%

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[36]Likely RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg[37]Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Roll Call[38]Likely RNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Likely RNovember 5, 2012
NY Times[40]Safe RNovember 4, 2012
RCP[41]Likely RNovember 4, 2012
The Hill[42]Likely RNovember 4, 2012

Results

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Montana's at-large congressional district, 2012[43]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanSteve Daines255,46853.25%−7.16%
DemocraticKim Gillan204,93942.72%+8.88%
LibertarianDavid Kaiser19,3334.03%−1.71%
Total votes479,740100.0%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

References

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  1. ^Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011)."It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester".Billings Gazette. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2011.
  2. ^"Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar"(PDF).Secretary of StateLinda McCulloch. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on August 10, 2011. RetrievedAugust 16, 2011.
  3. ^Slate, Judy (February 3, 2011)."Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race".KXLF.com. Archived fromthe original on July 13, 2011. RetrievedJune 1, 2011.
  4. ^Johnson, Charles S. (February 2, 2012)."Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate".Billings Gazette. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2012.
  5. ^Johnson, Charles S. (March 6, 2012)."Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat".Missoulian. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  6. ^Cates, Kristen."More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious".USA TODAY. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2024.
  7. ^"Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support".The Washington Post. October 5, 2011. RetrievedOctober 15, 2011.[dead link]
  8. ^Public Policy Polling
  9. ^abState of Montana. Official Canvas Retrieved December 20, 2022
  10. ^Banks, Marnee (June 21, 2011)."Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House".KAJ18.com. Archived fromthe original on March 21, 2012. RetrievedJune 21, 2011.
  11. ^"Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo".Independent Record. March 9, 2012. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  12. ^Dennison, Mike (November 3, 2011)."Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race".Billings Gazette. RetrievedNovember 11, 2011.
  13. ^Weller, Allyson (June 18, 2011)."Strohmaier announces run for Congress".KPAX. Archived fromthe original on June 23, 2011. RetrievedJune 20, 2011.
  14. ^Banks, Marnee (August 10, 2011)."Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House".KRTV. Archived fromthe original on September 29, 2011. RetrievedAugust 16, 2011.
  15. ^Johnson, Charles S. (January 20, 2012)."Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat".Missoulian. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2012.
  16. ^Banks, Marnee (February 1, 2011)."Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid".KRTV.com. Archived fromthe original on July 13, 2011. RetrievedJune 1, 2011.
  17. ^"Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014".Independent Record. March 14, 2012. RetrievedMarch 15, 2012.
  18. ^Drucker, David M. (June 9, 2011)."Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?".Roll Call. RetrievedJune 10, 2011.
  19. ^Johnson, Charles S. (July 28, 2011)."Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress".Billings Gazette. RetrievedAugust 2, 2011.
  20. ^abPublic Policy Polling
  21. ^Dennison, Mike (March 13, 2012)."Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season".Independent Record. RetrievedMarch 15, 2012.
  22. ^"CANDIDATES".gopyoungguns.com. Archived fromthe original on January 1, 2013. RetrievedJanuary 16, 2023.
  23. ^"RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived fromthe original on October 26, 2012. RetrievedMarch 5, 2023.
  24. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  25. ^Mason-Dixon
  26. ^Pharos Research Group
  27. ^Pharos Research Group
  28. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  29. ^MSU-Billings
  30. ^Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)
  31. ^Mason-Dixon
  32. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  33. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  34. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  35. ^Public Policy Polling
  36. ^"The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. RetrievedNovember 6, 2012.
  37. ^"House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. RetrievedNovember 4, 2012.
  38. ^[1], as of November 4, 2012[update]
  39. ^Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012[update]
  40. ^House Race Ratings,The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012[update]
  41. ^[2], as of November 4, 2012[update]
  42. ^"House Ratings".The Hill. November 3, 2012. RetrievedNovember 4, 2012.
  43. ^"2012 General Canvass"(PDF). RetrievedFebruary 23, 2019.

External links

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