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2012 United States presidential election in Nevada

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from2012 Nevada Republican caucuses)

Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in Nevada

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
 
NomineeBarack ObamaMitt Romney
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateIllinoisMassachusetts
Running mateJoe BidenPaul Ryan
Electoral vote60
Popular vote531,373463,567
Percentage52.36%45.68%

County results
Congressional district results

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%

Romney

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Nevada
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House

None of These Candidates

flagNevada portal

The2012 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated. State voters chose six electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,CongressmanPaul Ryan.

Nevada was won by President Barack Obama with 52.36% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 45.68%, a 6.68% margin of victory.[1] In2008, Obama won the state by 12.50%. Romney improved overJohn McCain's performance in 2008, but Obama still won the state by a comfortable margin. As of2024, Obama remains the last major party candidate to win the state by more than 5%.

Nevada has voted for the winner in every presidential election from1912 onwards, except in1976 when it voted forGerald Ford overJimmy Carter and in2016 when it voted forHillary Clinton overDonald Trump.Carson City, which voted for Obama in 2008, flipped to supporting the Republican Party this election cycle. Despite only winning two counties (Clark andWashoe), these counties consist of over 87% of Nevada's population and are home to Las Vegas and Reno, the largest and third largest cities in the state, thus allowing Obama to win by a comfortable margin.[2]

Caucuses

[edit]

Democratic caucuses

[edit]

Incumbent president Barack Obama was not challenged for the Democratic candidacy, so no Democratic caucuses were held.

Republican caucuses

[edit]
Main article:Republican Party presidential primaries
2012Nevada Republican caucuses

← 2008February 4, 2012 (2012-02-04)2016 →
← FL
CO →
 
CandidateMitt RomneyRon Paul
Home stateMassachusettsTexas
Delegate count208
Popular vote16,4866,175
Percentage50.02%18.73%

 
CandidateNewt GingrichRick Santorum
Home stateGeorgiaPennsylvania
Delegate count00
Popular vote6,9563,277
Percentage21.10%9.94%

Romney:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     80–90%
Gingrich:     30–40%
Paul:     30–40%     40–50%
2012 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 200820122016 →

The Republican caucuses were held on February 4,[3] and they are closed caucuses.[4] Mitt Romney was declared the winner.[5]

There are 400,310 registered Republicans voting for 28 delegates.[6][7]

Date

[edit]

The 2012 Nevada Republican caucuses were originally scheduled to begin on February 18, 2012,[8] much later than the date in 2008, which almost immediately followed the beginning of the year in January 2008.[9] On September 29, 2011, the entire schedule of caucuses and primaries was disrupted, however, when it was announced that theRepublican Party of Florida had decided to move up its primary to January 31, in an attempt to bring attention to its own primary contest, and attract the presidential candidates to visit the state.[10] Because of the move, theRepublican National Committee decided to strip Florida of half of its delegates.[11] Also as a result, the Nevada Republican Party, along with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, then sought to move their caucuses back into early January.[11] All but Nevada, who agreed to follow Florida,[12] confirmed their caucus and primary dates to take place throughout January, with Nevada deciding to hold their contest on February 4, 2012.[13]

The caucuses for 1,835 precincts in 125 sites were scheduled: voting from 9 AM - 1 PM, ballots handling 9-10 AM and to conclude by 3 PM at the latest on February 4, with results for almost all counties to be announced by the party at 5 PM.

Clark County

[edit]

ForClark County, a special caucus was held at theAdelson Educational Campus at 7 PM, intended to accommodate those who observeSaturday Sabbath.[14] According to Philip Kantor, an Orthodox Jew, the goal of the after-work caucus was to preventelectoral fraud "It has everything to do with not being deprived of a vote, beingdisenfranchised".[15] This late caucus allowed a timely vote forSeventh-day Adventists, Orthodox Jews and other who don't vote until Sabbath is over.[16] Adelson campus caucus attendees were required to sign affidavits stating that they had not already cast their ballot in an earlier caucus, that day.[14] There was only one nationwide televised (by CNN) public vote-count.[17] That Adelson caucus count provided the following Candidate vote results: Ron Paul 183, Mitt Romney 61, Newt Gingrich 57, and Rick Santorum 16 votes.[18] The results of this special caucus were announced Feb 4.[19] Paul got second place in Clark County, but Gingrich was ahead of Paul by a larger margin in the rest of the state and therefore ended up beating Paul statewide for second place.[20]

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the February 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries § Nevada (February 4)

Results

[edit]

Turnout was 8.23%. 1,800 of 1,800 precincts (100%) reporting.[21]
The voting-eligible population (400,310 registered Nevada Republicans).[6]
125 caucus sites.

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 3.57% or more of the vote proportionally

Nevada Republican caucuses, February 4, 2012[22]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate countActual Delegates
[23][24]
AP
[25]
CNN
[26]
MSNBC
[27]
Mitt Romney16,48650.02%14141420
Newt Gingrich6,95621.10%6660
Ron Paul6,17518.73%5558
Rick Santorum3,2779.94%3330
No Vote670.20%0000
Unprojected delegates:0000
Total:32,961100%28282828

This final result was announced by Twitter and the Nevada Republican Party on Monday February 6, at 01:01 am PST (local time).[28]The actual Republican National Convention delegates from Nevada are mostly Ron Paul supporters (22 of 28), which were elected by state convention on May 6. The Nevada Republican Party's rules state that most elected delegates to the RNC are still bound to vote for Romney (in the first round of voting), because of Romney's statewide caucuses winning.

Nevada State Convention Delegates May 6, 2012
CandidateSupporters for this candidate who are Delegates from NV to the RNC[29][30][31][32][33][34]
Ron Paul22
Mitt Romney6
Totals:28

Controversy

[edit]

Allegations of voter fraud have arisen due to a recount of Clark County ballots despite there being no official contest from any of the campaigns. One reason given by the GOP was that there were more ballots cast than people "signed in" at some precincts.[35]

General election

[edit]

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

Polling

[edit]

Throughout the race, Barack Obama tied or won every single pre-election poll except one. The final poll showed Obama leading 51% to 47%, while the average of the last 3 polls showed Obama leading Romney 50% to 47%.[36]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[37]Lean DNovember 6, 2012
CNN[38]TossupNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[39]Lean DNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[40]TossupNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[41]TossupNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42]Likely DNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[43]Solid DNovember 6, 2012

Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in Nevada[44]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack Obama(incumbent)Joe Biden(incumbent)531,37352.36%6
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan463,56745.68%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray10,9681.08%0
Other/None5,7700.57%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer3,2400.32%0
Total1,014,918100%

By county

[edit]
CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Carson City10,29144.13%12,39453.15%6342.72%-2,103-9.02%23,319
Churchill2,96128.85%7,06168.79%2432.36%-4,100-39.94%10,265
Clark389,93656.42%289,05341.82%12,2011.76%100,88314.60%691,190
Douglas9,29735.65%16,27662.42%5021.93%-6,979-26.77%26,075
Elko3,51121.96%12,01475.15%4612.89%-8,503-53.19%15,986
Esmeralda9221.15%31772.87%265.98%-225-51.72%435
Eureka10713.24%66382.05%384.71%-556-68.81%808
Humboldt1,73730.24%3,81066.33%1973.43%-2,073-36.09%5,744
Lander53424.67%1,58072.98%512.35%-1,046-48.31%2,165
Lincoln40018.59%1,69178.58%612.83%-1,291-59.99%2,152
Lyon7,38034.38%13,52062.99%5652.63%-6,140-28.61%21,465
Mineral86342.41%1,08053.07%924.52%-217-10.66%2,035
Nye6,32036.07%10,56660.30%6363.63%-4,246-24.23%17,522
Pershing63233.55%1,16761.94%854.51%-535-28.39%1,884
Storey92039.76%1,32157.09%733.15%-401-17.33%2,314
Washoe95,40950.79%88,45347.09%3,9932.12%6,9563.70%187,855
White Pine98326.54%2,60170.22%1203.24%-1,618-43.68%3,704
Totals531,37352.36%463,56745.68%19,9781.97%67,8066.68%1,014,918
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Obama won three of four congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[45]

DistrictObamaRomneyRepresentative
1st65.64%32.4%Dina Titus
2nd44.82%52.88%Mark Amodei
3rd49.53%48.73%Joe Heck
4th54.43%43.71%Steven Horsford

Analysis

[edit]

Nevada has historically been a swing state. It has voted for the winner of every presidential election since1912, except for1976 and2016. From1992 to2004, the margin of victory was always under five points. In2008, however, the state swung over dramatically to support Obama, who carried it by 12.49%.

In 2012, Obama held onto Nevada, though by a narrower margin of 6.68%. This was due almost entirely to Obama carrying the state's two largest counties–Clark County, home toLas Vegas andHenderson, andWashoe County, home toReno. These two counties account for 85% of Nevada's population. Romney dominated the state's rural counties, which have supported Republicans for decades. However, the only large jurisdiction he carried was the independent city ofCarson City.

As in 2008, Obama owed his victory in part to the state's Hispanic voters breaking heavily for him. According to exit polls, Hispanics made up 19% of the electorate and voted for Obama by almost three-to-one.[46]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"US Presidential Race".nvsos.gov. RetrievedMarch 6, 2023.
  2. ^"Census.gov".Census.gov. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2020.
  3. ^Peoples, Steve (October 22, 2011)."Nevada Caucus Date: Nevada Moves Date To Feb. 4".Huffington Post. RetrievedNovember 4, 2011.
  4. ^"Nevada Republican Delegation 2012".The Green Papers.
  5. ^Barabak, Mark Z. (February 4, 2012)."Mitt Romney cruises to victory in Nevada caucuses".Los Angeles Times.
  6. ^ab"Voter Registration Statistics: Active Voters by County and Party". Nevada Secretary of State. January 2012. RetrievedFebruary 2, 2012.
  7. ^Active Voters by Party and Age
  8. ^Adair, Cory (December 16, 2010)."Nevada to Hold Presidential Caucus on February 18, 2012". Nevada Republican Party. RetrievedNovember 4, 2011.
  9. ^"Nevada Primary Results".The New York Times. RetrievedNovember 4, 2011.
  10. ^Taylor, Steven (September 29, 2011)."Florida Moves its Primary". Outside the Beltway. RetrievedNovember 3, 2011.
  11. ^abJacobs, Jennifer (October 25, 2011)."GOP chairman: Florida will be penalized, and 2012 race is now set".Des Moines Register. RetrievedNovember 3, 2011.
  12. ^Nir, David (October 24, 2011)."Nevada Republicans cave, move caucuses to Feb. 4". Daily Kos. RetrievedNovember 3, 2011.
  13. ^"Nevada moves caucus to Feb. 4 after backlash".USA Today. Associated Press. October 22, 2011. RetrievedNovember 4, 2011.
  14. ^abMolly Ball (27 January 2012),"In Nevada, Sheldon Adelson Gets His Very Own Caucus"The Atlantic.
  15. ^Las Vegas Review Journal Adelson distances himself from GOP special caucus decision
  16. ^Steinhauser, Paul (February 4, 2012)."Will Nevada Give Romney A Second Straight Victory?".CNN. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2012 – via wesh.com.
  17. ^Byers, Dylan (February 10, 2012)."On television, CNN wins the election".Politico. RetrievedJune 4, 2024.
  18. ^"Troubles abound at special Las Vegas caucus".Jefferson City News-Tribune. February 5, 2012. RetrievedJune 4, 2024.
  19. ^"Nevada's Night 'Jewish Caucus' Won by Paul".The Forward. February 6, 2012. RetrievedJune 4, 2024.
  20. ^"Another Win: Romney Adds Nevada To His Victories".NPR. February 4, 2012. RetrievedJune 4, 2024.
  21. ^"NVGOP Caucus Results Certified". Nevada Republican Party. Archived fromthe original on February 6, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 22, 2012.
  22. ^"AP Results via Google". RetrievedFebruary 6, 2012.
  23. ^"Ron Paul Wins Maine | Jamie Dupree Washington Insider".AJC. May 6, 2012. Archived fromthe original on May 8, 2012. RetrievedMay 7, 2012.
  24. ^"Delegate fight Snowe LePage today at convention".Portland Press Herald. May 7, 2012.
  25. ^"Nevada Caucus Results".USA Today. February 4, 2012. Archived fromthe original on June 13, 2012.
  26. ^"Republican Caucuses".CNN. February 4, 2012. Archived fromthe original on December 8, 2012.
  27. ^"MSNBC Republican Caucuses".MSNBC. February 4, 2012. Archived fromthe original on January 15, 2012.
  28. ^@NVVoteCount (February 6, 2012)."@NVVoteCount NV Caucus Results B 00 TOTAL 32963 IN 1800 OF 1800 GIN 6956 PAU 6175 ROM 16486 SAN 3277 NOV 69 (1/1)" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  29. ^"Ron Paul supporters capture majority of Nevada’s national delegates" Accessed May 8, 2012. Las Vegas Sun.
  30. ^"Ron Paul’s stealth state convention takeover" Accessed May 8, 2012. Washington Post.
  31. ^"Ron Paul wins big in Maine and Nevada" Accessed May 8, 2012. Christian Science Monitor.
  32. ^"Ron Paul's Maine, Nevada, and Iowa Victories (Despite Romney Dirty Tricks) Accessed May 8, 2012. reason.com"
  33. ^"Libertarians Find Their Audience In 2012 Race" Accessed May 8, 2012. NPR.
  34. ^"Ron Paul at Nevada State Convention 2012 " Accessed May 8, 2012. Video of NV convention speech.
  35. ^"WLong lines, complaints of election fraud plague special Las Vegas caucus for religious voters".The Washington Post. February 5, 2012. Archived fromthe original on February 9, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2012.
  36. ^"RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Nevada: Romney vs. Obama". Archived fromthe original on May 4, 2011.
  37. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  38. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  39. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  40. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  41. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  42. ^Sabato, Larry J.; Kondik, Kyle; Skelley, Geoffrey (November 5, 2012)."Projection: Obama will likely win second term".
  43. ^Griffin, Leeanne (November 7, 2012)."Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".masslive.
  44. ^"Nevada Secretary of State". Archived fromthe original on November 9, 2012. RetrievedNovember 10, 2012.
  45. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.
  46. ^"Nevada Presidential Race".CNN.

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