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2012 United States presidential election in Idaho

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(Redirected from2012 Idaho Democratic caucuses)

Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012United States presidential election in Idaho

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
 
NomineeMitt RomneyBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateMassachusettsIllinois
Running matePaul RyanJoe Biden
Electoral vote40
Popular vote420,911212,787
Percentage64.09%32.40%

County results
Congressional district results

Romney

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

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The2012 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Idaho voters chose four electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,CongressmanPaul Ryan. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered this a state Romney would win, or otherwise considered as a safered state. Romney and Ryan carried Idaho with 64.09% of the popular vote to Obama's and Biden's 32.40%, thus winning the state's four electoral votes.[1] Romney's victory in Idaho made it his fourth strongest state in the 2012 election afterUtah,Wyoming andOklahoma.[2] He improved onMcCain's performance in 2008, expanding his margin from 25.3% to 31.69% and flippingTeton County which had previously voted for Obama.

Caucuses

[edit]

Democratic caucuses

[edit]

President Obama ran unopposed in the caucuses. The District cast all 31 of its delegate votes at the2012 Democratic National Convention for Obama.[3]

2012 Idaho Democratic presidential primary[4]
CandidateState convention delegatesPercentageDelegates
Barack Obama(incumbent)1,400100%27
Unpledged delegates:4
Total:1,400100%31

Republican caucuses

[edit]
2012Idaho Republican presidential caucuses

← 2008March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06)2016 →
 
CandidateMitt RomneyRick SantorumRon Paul
Home stateMassachusettsPennsylvaniaTexas
Delegate count3200
Popular vote27,5148,1158,086
Percentage61.6%18.2%18.1%

Idaho results by county
  Mitt Romney
  Rick Santorum
  Ron Paul

The Republican caucuses took place onSuper Tuesday, March 6, 2012.[5][6] An advisory primary with no binding effect on delegates, scheduled to be held on Tuesday May 15, 2012, was cancelled by theIdaho Republican Party.[7] Five candidates were on the ballot. In order of filing they areRon Paul,Mitt Romney,Rick Santorum,Newt Gingrich, andBuddy Roemer. Although Roemer had withdrawn from the Republican race before the Idaho caucus, he still appeared on the ballot.[8]

Idaho has 32 delegates to the Republican national convention, of which 3 are RNC and 29 are AL.[clarification needed] The 3 RNC delegates pledged to go with the results of the Boise Straw Poll.[citation needed] The delegates will be determined by the caucuses results, based on a two-step approach. First, the delegates are primarily awarded winner-take-all by county after a series of votes in which candidates are successively removed from the ballot. Then, if a candidate receives half or more of the county delegates, they will receive all the 32 delegates; if not, the delegates will be split proportionately according to the number of county delegates.[9] Mitt Romney won 61% of the vote, thanks to a large majority of support (80-90% in most counties) in majority Mormon southeastern Idaho, rendering it a winner-take-all contest. Santorum and Paul split thePanhandle, winning five counties each, but came away empty in the delegate count.

Straw polls

[edit]

Despite a complete lack of formal polling in the state,[9] there were a total of fivestraw polls conducted in Idaho, three of which were online. Ron Paul won three of these,[10][11][12] while Mitt Romney won two.[13]

January 2–4 online poll
[edit]

This was the first ever Idaho straw poll.[14] It was conducted entirely online by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won with over 70% of the vote.[10]

FinishCandidatePercentage
1Ron Paul73.53%
2Rick Santorum8.09%
3Newt Gingrich7.35%
4Mitt Romney5.15%
5Barack Obama3.68%
6Gary Johnson1.47%
7Rick Perry0.74%
8Jon Huntsman0.00%
9Michele Bachmann0.00%
Total100%
January 6 Boise poll
[edit]

This poll used paper ballots and was conducted inBoise. Ron Paul won this poll.Rick Perry's campaign, although still active in the race at this time, did not participate.[11]

FinishCandidatePercentageVotes
1Ron Paul43%173
2Mitt Romney34%135
3Newt Gingrich12%47
4Rick Santorum10%40
5Jon Huntsman1%4
Total100%399
February 2–4 online poll
[edit]

This online straw poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Mitt Romney won the poll by a small margin.[13]

FinishCandidatePercentage
1Mitt Romney45.39%
2Ron Paul42.70%
3Rick Santorum4.49%
4Newt Gingrich3.82%
5Barack Obama3.15%
6Other0.45%
Total100%
March 1–3 online poll
[edit]

This poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won by a double-digit margin.[12]

FinishCandidatePercentageVotes
1Ron Paul51.37%525
2Mitt Romney35.03%358
3Gary Johnson3.91%40
4Rick Santorum3.23%33
5Virgil Goode2.84%29
6Buddy Roemer1.96%20
7Newt Gingrich0.98%10
8Barack Obama0.49%5
9Other0.2%2
Total100%1022

Results

[edit]

Results:[15][16]

FinishCandidatePercentageVotesEstimated National Delegates
1Mitt Romney61.6%27,51432
2Rick Santorum18.2%8,1150
3Ron Paul18.1%8,0860
4Newt Gingrich2.1%9400
5Buddy Roemer0.0%170
Total100%32
County totals
[edit]
CountyNewt GingrichRon PaulMitt RomneyRick SantorumTotalWinner
Ada3071766423318668172Romney
Adams0851320217Romney
Bannock2425416141462038Romney
Bear Lake21530819344Romney
Benewah249026145265Santorum
Bingham2721521721502564Romney
Blaine477923023379Romney
Boise01281630291Romney
Bonner055504871042Paul
Bonneville6548130442353825Romney
Boundary019364101358Paul
Butte102515323211Romney
Camas04038078Paul
Canyon0617205612963969Romney
Caribou72233626391Romney
Cassia2814312791441594Romney
Clark288817115Romney
Clearwater0850151236Santorum
Custer19489824189Romney
Elmore01582810439Romney
Franklin410585629994Romney
Fremont127672638852Romney
Gem0150379143672Romney
Gooding478429986516Romney
Idaho02840191475Paul
Jefferson1121216421141979Romney
Jerome2874331101534Romney
Kootenai049606741170Santorum
Latah78509197188972Paul
Lemhi446021764385Romney
Lewis00254469Santorum
Lincoln141114749221Romney
Madison72602510502827Romney
Minidoka228065392847Romney
Nez Perce01271240251Paul
Oneida33924118301Romney
Owyhee00177263440Santorum
Payette00428302730Romney
Power91328738347Romney
Shoshone006374137Santorum
Teton134429526378Romney
Twin Falls8333212284092052Romney
Valley01231520275Romney
Washington00222269491Santorum

Notes

  • That these totals reflect thefinal caucus ballots in each county; where only two candidates have votes totaled, this was likely from other candidates being eliminated in previous rounds of voting. Where all candidates have at least one vote, only one ballot was necessary, since the winning candidate had a majority of votes in that county.
  • Vote totals for Buddy Roemer, who had formally withdrawn from the Republican race before the caucus, are not provided.

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[17]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
CNN[18]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[19]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[20]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[21]Solid RNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]Solid RNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[23]Solid RNovember 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in Idaho[24]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan420,91164.09%4
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)212,78732.40%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray9,4531.44%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala4,4020.67%0
JusticeRocky AndersonLuis J. Rodriguez2,4990.38%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer2,2220.34%0
Totals656,742100.00%4

By county

[edit]
CountyMitt Romney
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Ada97,55453.53%77,13742.33%7,5554.14%20,41711.20%182,246
Adams1,41368.56%57728.00%713.44%83640.56%2,061
Bannock21,01059.14%13,21437.20%1,2993.66%7,79621.94%35,523
Bear Lake2,48988.20%30210.70%311.10%2,18777.50%2,822
Benewah2,59666.82%1,16429.96%1253.22%1,43236.86%3,885
Bingham13,44076.03%3,82221.62%4162.35%9,61854.41%17,678
Blaine3,93938.64%5,99258.78%2632.58%-2,053-20.14%10,194
Boise2,28466.28%1,05330.56%1093.16%1,23135.72%3,446
Bonner11,36760.45%6,50034.57%9364.98%4,86725.88%18,803
Bonneville32,27674.68%9,90322.91%1,0382.41%22,37351.77%43,217
Boundary3,13869.06%1,22526.96%1813.98%1,91342.10%4,544
Butte1,00177.84%25820.06%272.10%74357.78%1,286
Camas40269.55%15927.51%172.94%24342.04%578
Canyon44,36966.47%19,86629.76%2,5123.77%24,50336.71%66,747
Caribou2,60885.45%38612.65%581.90%2,22272.80%3,052
Cassia7,15484.84%1,09813.02%1802.14%6,05671.82%8,432
Clark23571.65%6620.12%278.23%16951.53%328
Clearwater2,54168.75%1,03227.92%1233.33%1,50940.83%3,696
Custer1,74474.06%53022.51%813.43%1,21451.55%2,355
Elmore5,22765.31%2,51331.40%2633.29%2,71433.91%8,003
Franklin5,19592.77%3255.80%801.43%4,87086.97%5,600
Fremont4,90784.57%81013.96%851.47%4,09770.61%5,802
Gem5,31170.90%1,95726.12%2232.98%3,35444.78%7,491
Gooding3,69672.22%1,28725.15%1352.63%2,40947.07%5,118
Idaho5,92175.52%1,70821.79%2112.69%4,21353.73%7,840
Jefferson9,89586.94%1,30311.45%1831.61%8,59275.49%11,381
Jerome4,80471.52%1,69925.29%2143.19%3,10546.23%6,717
Kootenai39,38165.09%18,85131.16%2,2733.75%20,53033.93%60,505
Latah7,58944.32%8,30648.51%1,2297.17%-717-4.19%17,124
Lemhi3,02973.70%96023.36%1212.94%2,06950.34%4,110
Lewis1,17372.63%39624.52%462.85%77748.11%1,615
Lincoln1,14168.61%46928.20%533.19%67240.41%1,663
Madison13,44593.29%8325.77%1350.94%12,61387.52%14,412
Minidoka5,44278.04%1,39019.93%1412.03%4,05258.11%6,973
Nez Perce9,96758.65%6,45137.96%5753.39%3,51620.69%16,993
Oneida1,83887.98%21710.39%341.63%1,62177.59%2,089
Owyhee2,79475.03%83322.37%972.60%1,96152.66%3,724
Payette6,00470.68%2,27126.73%2202.59%3,73343.95%8,495
Power1,87064.39%98233.82%521.79%88830.57%2,904
Shoshone2,69952.43%2,27744.23%1723.34%4228.20%5,148
Teton2,45854.34%1,92642.58%1393.08%53211.76%4,523
Twin Falls19,77369.70%7,54126.58%1,0553.72%12,23243.12%28,369
Valley2,66454.16%2,09542.59%1603.25%56911.57%4,919
Washington3,12872.22%1,10425.49%992.29%2,02446.73%4,331
Totals420,91164.09%212,78732.40%23,0443.51%208,12431.69%656,742
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Romney won both congressional districts.[25]

DistrictObamaRomneyRepresentative
1st32.19%64.91%Raúl Labrador
2nd33.07%64.14%Mike Simpson

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Idaho". RetrievedJanuary 4, 2013.
  2. ^"2012 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. RetrievedMarch 5, 2018.
  3. ^"Idaho Democratic Delegation 2012".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedJuly 14, 2016.
  4. ^"District of Columbia Democratic Delegation 2012".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedJuly 14, 2016.
  5. ^"Idaho Republican Delegation 2012".
  6. ^"Election and voting information"(PDF).
  7. ^"Idaho Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. RetrievedMarch 5, 2012.
  8. ^"Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates". May 27, 2018.
  9. ^abNate Silver (March 4, 2012)."Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedMarch 5, 2012.
  10. ^ab"Presidential Race Graph". Archived fromthe original on March 6, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2012.
  11. ^abhttp://www.kivitv.com/news/local/136861888.html[permanent dead link]
  12. ^ab"Presidential Race Graph". Archived fromthe original on March 6, 2012. RetrievedMarch 4, 2012.
  13. ^ab"Presidential Race Graph". Archived fromthe original on March 6, 2012. RetrievedMarch 2, 2012.
  14. ^Bodnar, Marissa."Idaho GOP Gears Up For 2012 Straw Poll, Caucus".Local News 8. NPG of Idaho, Inc. Archived fromthe original on September 18, 2016. RetrievedJuly 14, 2016.
  15. ^"Caucus Results | Idaho GOPIdaho GOP". Archived fromthe original on July 20, 2012. RetrievedJuly 19, 2012.
  16. ^"Idaho County Map".CNN.
  17. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  18. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  19. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  20. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  21. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  22. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  23. ^"Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  24. ^"2012 Presidential General Election Results - Idaho". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  25. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.

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