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The2011 Irish general election took place on 25 February 2011 to elect the 166 members ofDáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, theOireachtas. Held amid asharp economic downturn and theeurozone crisis, the election sweptFianna Fáil from power on one of the largest swings in Europe since 1945 and resulted in aFine Gael–Labour Partycoalition with a record majority.
Traditionally Ireland's dominant party and in government since 1997, Fianna Fáil's support declined after thenear-collapse of the banking sector in 2008. With the economy in a deep recession,TaoiseachBrian Cowen's Fianna Fáil–Green Party coalition passed fourausterity budgets and became highly unpopular. The government collapsed following its application for aninternational bailout in late 2010, which saw the so-calledTroika take control of state fiscal policy. Cowen resigned as Fianna Fáil leader days before the Dáil was dissolved.
Because of the EU–IMF bailout, the election was seen internationally as significant for the future of theeuro. While a glut of outgoingTDs opted to retire, a record number of candidates stood. With Fianna Fáil polling at historic lows, the campaign became a contest between the main opposition parties. Labour underEamon Gilmore had surged to first place in polls in 2010, precipitating a failed attempt by Fine Gael frontbenchers to removeEnda Kenny as their party leader. By 2011, however, Fine Gael had a clear lead, and surveys during the campaign put them close to an overall majority. Amid high unemployment and a vast budget deficit, each party attacked the other: Labour were branded a high-tax option while Fine Gael were accused of favouring brutal spending cuts.
The election saw Fianna Fáil slide to third place and lose more than two-thirds of its TDs, a record decline at a Dáil election. It was the party's worst-ever result by far; its vote collapsed with every social group and in every region. Three of the six sitting cabinet ministers who contested the election lost their seats, and the Green Party was wiped out entirely. Fine Gael, Labour andSinn Féin each won record seat totals, and an increased number ofindependents were elected. For the first time in its history, Fine Gael became the largest party. After it and Labour agreed a programme for government, Enda Kenny was elected Taoiseach by the31st Dáil on 9 March 2011.
In the twentieth century,Fianna Fáil was arguably the most successful political party in a European democracy.[6] With abig-tent ethos focused on strong leadership, localism, and economic pragmatism, it had won the most seats at every election since1932 and been in government for all but twenty-four years of its eight-decade existence.[7][8][9]Bertie Ahern became party leader in1994 and formed a coalition with theProgressive Democrats in1997. During his first two terms asTaoiseach, Ahern presided overa booming economy; his governments pursued expansionary fiscal policies while overseeing rapid growth in theproperty sector and increased reliance on construction-related revenue.[10][11] Ahern was the first Taoiseach to lead a coalition through multiple terms.[12]
Despite voter fatigue after a decade in office, Fianna Fáil won thegeneral election in May 2007 on a promise to keep the economy strong.[13] It formed a coalition with theGreen Party, the Progressive Democrats, andindependents.[14] The main opposition parties wereFine Gael, theLabour Party, andSinn Féin. Bertie Ahern was the first Taoiseach elected to three consecutive terms sinceÉamon de Valera.[15] It was the first time the Green Party had entered government;Trevor Sargent stood down as party leader soon afterwards and was succeeded byJohn Gormley.[16] Following disclosures at theMahon Tribunal and controversy over his private financial affairs, Ahern resigned in April 2008;Brian Cowen replaced him as Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach the following month.[17][18] Having lost three-quarters of theirDáil seats at the 2007 election, the Progressive Democrats disbanded in 2009, though former leaderMary Harney continued to serve in cabinet as an independent.[19]
Amid asteep decline in property prices and awider downturn in the economy, thenear-collapse of Irish banks in 2008 shook the state to its foundations.[20] In September, the government intervened to guarantee bank liabilities totalling €440 billion, about ten times Ireland's existing national debt.[21] Within weeks, as the coalition announced anearly austerity budget, Fianna Fáil's polling declined to historic lows.[22] Fine Gael became the largest party in local government at the2009 elections, while the Green Party fell from eighteen seats oncity and county councils to three.[23] The same day, Fianna Fáil had a poorEuropean Parliament election, losing its seat inDublin for the first time ever.[24] In opinion polls, the government's satisfaction rating barely exceeded 10 per cent.[25] Across all surveys in 2009, Fine Gael averaged 33 per cent support; Fianna Fáil, 23 per cent; and Labour, 20 per cent.[26]
In opposition since 1997, Fine Gael and the Labour Party ran on a joint platform in 2007.[27] Fine Gael leaderEnda Kenny, in place since 2002, stayed on after gaining twenty seats at the election, despite criticism of his campaign from the media and some of his ownTDs.[28]Pat Rabbitte resigned as Labour leader in August 2007 and was replaced byEamon Gilmore, who pledged to take the party out of the shadow of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.[19][29]
In June 2010, Labour reached 32 per cent in a poll forThe Irish Times, putting them in the lead. Gilmore's personal popularity considerably outstripped Kenny's, and Labour was polling particularly well with middle-aged swing voters.[30] The journalistDeaglán de Bréadún attributed the party's surge to its perceived success in forcing the resignation ofJohn O'Donoghue asCeann Comhairle after anexpenses scandal.[31]
After failing to declare confidence in Kenny during two TV appearances after the poll,Richard Bruton was sacked as Fine Gael deputy leader and finance spokesperson on 14 June. Bruton announced he would challenge for the party leadership and gained the support of most of the frontbench. Some in Bruton's camp expected Kenny to resign, but he vowed to fight on.[32]Olivia Mitchell, a frontbencher who supported Bruton, told reporters that voters she spoke to could not imagine Kenny as Taoiseach.[33] Nevertheless, Kenny won a vote of confidence from the parliamentary party later that week.[31] His victory steadied Fine Gael, and by the beginning of 2011 the party had a commanding lead in polls again.[26]
Brian Cowen's government had sought to avoid the need for aninternational bailout, passing deep cuts to public spending and attempting to broaden the tax base. The coalition had withstood twono-confidence motions, the resignation ofWillie O'Dea from the cabinet over alegal controversy,finance ministerBrian Lenihan's pancreatic cancer diagnosis, and a September 2010 interview withRTÉ in which Cowen was alleged to have been hungover.[34][35] John Downing, deputy government press secretary at the time, wrote in 2013 that Fine Gael politicians had told him it suited their party for Cowen to stay in office as long as possible, so he would be responsible for unpopular economic measures.[36]
The coalition's numerical position in the Dáil had gradually deteriorated from the margin of twelve by which Cowen had been elected Taoiseach.[18] By November 2010, the government had a majority of three, while three Dáil seats had been vacant for more than six months.[37] The previous May, the government had blocked an attempt by Sinn Féin to hold aby-election inDonegal South-West because a likely defeat was seen as a threat to its stability.[38] Sinn Féin senatorPearse Doherty took a successfulHigh Court action against the decision.[39][40] Thevote took place on 25 November and Doherty won the seat, with the Fianna Fáil candidate in third.[41]
Although a general election was not required until July 2012, events in November 2010 forced an early dissolution. The same week as the by-election in Donegal, after days of denials and secrecy, it emerged that the government was negotiating an €85 billionbailout with theEurogroup, theEuropean Central Bank, and theInternational Monetary Fund. In effect, the so-calledTroika was now controlling Irish economic policy.[42][43]The Irish Times said of Fianna Fáil in an editorial: "The Republican Party's ideals are in tatters now."[44] The Green Party called for a general election to be held in January 2011, but said it would facilitate vital pre-dissolution measures, including the2011 budget.[42] Cowen accepted this proposal but did not set an election date.[45]
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Cowen's leadership of Fianna Fáil came into question following a further slump in polls to 14 per cent.[42] Though he had intended to lead his party into the election, the Taoiseach faced a challenge fromMicheál Martin, theMinister for Foreign Affairs. On 18 January 2011, Cowen won a vote of confidence from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party; Martin then resigned from the cabinet while pledging loyalty to the government.[42] Cowen attempted areshuffle two days later, but following the resignations of five ministers who planned to retire at the election, the Green Party – who regarded the move as a cynical attempt to improve Fianna Fáil's electoral prospects – announced it would not vote to appoint their replacements. A standoff developed between the two parties.[46] In response, the Fianna Fáil junior ministerConor Lenihan called for Cowen to resign.[47] Cowen stood down as Fianna Fáil leader on 22 January, saying he would remain Taoiseach until after the general election on 11 March. The Green Party ministers formally resigned from government the next day, leaving a Fianna Fáil caretaker ministry of seven, the constitutional minimum.[46] Four days after Cowen's announcement, theFianna Fáil leadership was won by Micheál Martin.[48]
Following the threat of no-confidence motions from Fine Gael and Labour, the government brought forward the election date from 11 March to 25 February in exchange for expediting the Finance Bill. The30th Dáil was dissolved byPresidentMary McAleese on 1 February 2011.[46]
Under theConstitution of Ireland, once the Dáil was dissolved, an election had to take place within thirty days. The date was set for Friday 25 February and the first meeting of the31st Dáil was scheduled for Wednesday 9 March. It was the first general election in February or in winter since1987, and the first not to be held at a time of the outgoing Taoiseach's choosing since1992.[49]
Polls were open between 07:00 and 22:00 (WET).[50] As usual, due to the possibility of adverse weather delaying the return of ballots, certainoffshore islands voted earlier than the rest of the country. OnArranmore,Clare Island,Gola,Inishbiggle,Inishbofin (County Donegal), Inishfree,Inishturk andTory Island, votes were cast on 23 February; theAran Islands andInishbofin (County Galway) went to the polls the following day.[51]
Voting in general elections was notcompulsory and turnout had increased in 2007 following a gradual decline since the 1980s.[2] Across forty-three constituencies, 165 of the 166 seats inDáil Éireann were up for election; the outgoingCeann Comhairle (chairperson of the Dáil),Séamus Kirk, was returned automatically inLouth.[1]
As set out in the constitution, the election was conducted usingproportional representation through thesingle transferable vote (PR–STV). Under this system, each voter was presented with a ballot paper listing all candidates standing in their constituency and could rank them in order of preference. Voters were not obliged topreference every candidate on the ballot paper. There was aquota of votes based on the number of seats available; each candidate who exceeded the quota was deemed elected. Their surplus votes were then distributed (a "transfer") to the remaining candidates in accordance with voters' preferences. Where no candidate had reached the quota, the lowest-ranking candidate or candidates were eliminated and their votes transferred until only enough candidates remained as there were seats to be filled.[52]
The outcome of electoral contests in Ireland was often determined by local work, known pejoratively as "parish pump politics", rather than ideology.[53][54] At constituency level, candidates could be competing directly with others from the same party. Large parties engaged invote management to improve their chances of winning multiple seats in an area, trying to balance their vote evenly among their candidates; they did this by encouraging supporters to allocate preferences tactically, and dividing up territory between their contenders.[55][56][57] For a party, running more candidates in a constituency meant increased diversity and geographic spread at the cost of votes scattering through preferences.[58] Transfers were very significant, and Fianna Fáil's electoral success under Bertie Ahern had been partly attributed to an improved ability to win preferences.[59]
Each constituency elected between three and fiveTeachtaí Dála (TDs). These relatively small PR constituencies meant Irish elections often produced outcomes favouring large parties (known as a "seat bonus") and disfavouring small ones, whose vote could be spread too thinly to win many seats. In 2007, for example, Sinn Féin had won 6.9 per cent of the vote but only 2.4 per cent of the available seats.[55][60][61]
Under the constitution, there had to be between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants for each Dáil member, with a broadly similar ratio throughout the country to preventmalapportionment. Following the five-yearlycensus in 2006, a Constituency Commission was established under High Court judge Iarfhlaith O'Neill to adjust boundaries in line with the constitution. The commission's report was published in 2007; its recommendations reflected high population growth in theGreater Dublin Area, particularly Counties Meath and Kildare, and became law in 2009.[62][63]
The number of seats and constituencies remained unchanged. Among a large number of minor boundary changes, the main alterations were:[64]
A record 566 candidates stood for election – nearly a hundred more than in 2007 – driven by a surge in the number of independents.[65] By the time the government collapsed, party selections were at an advanced stage because the coalition had not been expected to last a full term.[66] In 2007, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had recruited several personalities from sport and business; this time, there were fewercelebrity candidates, an outcome attributed to the failure of the journalistGeorge Lee's career as a TD.[67] 86 women put themselves forward, a numerical increase on 2007 but a decline in percentage terms.[68] The two youngest candidates were both twenty-one years old; the oldest,Ian McGarvey, was eighty-one.[66]
Fianna Fáil's organisation was in disarray in late 2010 and early 2011, and the leadership had less control over selections than usual.[69] A glut of retirements helped the party reduce the size of its tickets to competitive levels, but local organisations sometimes selected more candidates than advised, most notably inDún Laoghaire.[70] Fianna Fáil stood 75 candidates, 31 fewer than in 2007 and three fewer than the number of seats it had won at the last election. The Green Party stood in every constituency, often withpaper candidates. Despite poor polling over its time in government, the party believed it was important to contest everywhere, both for symbolic reasons and to improve its chances of getting the 2 per cent national vote needed to qualify for public funding.[71]
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Fine Gael's selection process was centralised and tightly controlled, and it was the only party to run enough candidates to win a Dáil majority.[72][73] The party engaged in strictvote management in some areas, especiallyMayo and parts of Dublin.[74] Labour's selection strategy was influenced by its experience at the 1992 election, when it was perceived to have stood too few candidates to take advantage of a spike in support.[75] The party stood eighteen more candidates than in 2007 and all but one of its outgoing TDs had a running mate.[76] Sinn Féin presidentGerry Adams announced in late 2010 that he would resign from theHouse of Commons and theNorthern Ireland Assembly to contest the Dáil election inLouth.[4]
During the economic crisis, the perceived failure of the established political forces motivated discussion of a potential new party. In 2010, aSunday Independent poll found that a majority believed one was needed.[77] Writing in 2012, the academic Liam Weeks remarked that while Ireland had fewer political parties than other European countries of its size during this period, voters had a long history of spurning new options, especially those not formed from splits or mergers of existing groups.[78]
A number of public figures discussed forming a loose alliance called "Democracy Now", but the collapse of the government at the end of 2010 did not give them enough time to prepare.[79][80]New Vision, a separate slate of independents, contested about half of constituencies.[81] Several small left-wing groups combined to form theUnited Left Alliance:People Before Profit, theSocialist Party,Workers and Unemployed Action, and some former Labour Party members. Three of its candidates were former TDs. Also on the left,Fís Nua, a new party including several former Green Party members opposed to coalition, fielded a handful of candidates.[82]
The public debate over the lack of experts in Irish politics may have contributed to an increased number of independent candidates with economic and financial credentials, includingShane Ross andStephen Donnelly.[83]Mick Wallace, a property developer, left-wing activist and the founder ofWexford Youths F.C., announced on television three weeks before the election that he would contestWexford as an independent.[84] Most other high-profile independents were former members of parties.[85]
A record thirty-nine TDs, almost a quarter of the total, stood down from the Dáil at the election, including four who had already resigned their seats before dissolution. Of the retirements, twenty-three were Fianna Fáil, nine were Fine Gael, four came from the Labour Party, one was Sinn Féin and two were independents.[86]
Among the departures from the Fianna Fáil ranks were the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, his predecessor, Bertie Ahern, and seven former ministers who had served under them. It was the first time a sitting Taoiseach had stood down at a general election. Amid the straitened economic circumstances, media attention focused on the termination payments and ministerial and Dáil pensions some from the party would receive upon retirement.[87] Elsewhere, Mary Harney, the first femaleTánaiste and the longest-serving female TD in history at the time, also retired from politics. Labour'sMichael D. Higgins left the Dáil to contest the2011 presidential election, which he won.[88]
The election was dominated by the fallout from thebanking crisis and theEU–ECB–IMF "Troika" bailout in 2010. The opposition parties were critical of the government's decision toguarantee all bank liabilities in 2008; this had dramatically increased the state's risk exposure and put pressure on the value of Irish bonds, contributing to the need for external assistance.[89][90] In late 2010, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore alleged that the government had knownAnglo Irish Bank was insolvent in 2008 and accused Brian Cowen of "economic treason" for placing its debt burden on taxpayers. Cowen strongly rejected the claim.[91]
As the firsteurozone election to take place in a country facing asovereign debt crisis, the vote was seen internationally as important for the future of the currency.[92] Fine Gael and Labour both proposed to renegotiate the Troika deal.Michael Noonan, Fine Gael's finance spokesperson, said the 5.8% interest rate demanded was likely to inhibit economic recovery and proposed that other European countries contribute to the recapitalisation of Irish banks. Economists criticised these suggestions, saying they overstated the Irish government's leverage.[93][94]Olli Rehn, theEuropean Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, said the terms of the bailout could not be renegotiated, but it might be possible to reduce the interest rate.[95]
At the time of the election, Ireland wasemerging from a deep recession which had begun in late 2007. Almost half a million people were out of work and the unemployment rate stood at 13.4%. The collapse of house prices meant that many people who had bought homes near the peak of theproperty bubble were now innegative equity. Emigration had sharply increased since 2008.[96] Despite the openness of Ireland's economy, voters overwhelmingly blamed Fianna Fáil for the crisis. Suggestions fromBrian Lenihan, the Minister for Finance, that the economy was "turning the corner" in the months leading up to the Troika's arrival contributed to an atmosphere of distrust, as didjustice ministerDermot Ahern's denial of a bailout in the days before it happened.[97][98] Political scientists Michael Marsh and Slava Mikhaylov said that voters who perceived economic problems on the horizon in 2007 had been more likely to vote for Fianna Fáil, and this deepened their subsequent feelings of betrayal; they compared it to the collapse of theUK Conservative Party's economic credibility afterBlack Wednesday in 1992.[99] Of her experience covering the election as a journalist,Olivia O'Leary wrote: "People wanted to show their wounds. Candidates were clung to like therapists, held on the doorsteps for ages. People felt cheated and betrayed but what hurt even more was that many of them felt they had been foolish."[100]
Over the two and half years since the bank guarantee, the Fianna Fáil–Green government had introduced four austerity budgets. Among a large number of other measures, the coalition had reduced the availability ofsubsidised healthcare for old-age pensioners, created theUniversal Social Charge to widen the tax base, established theNational Asset Management Agency to isolatetoxic assets from the wider banking system, and implemented across-the-board reductions in social welfare. The government and theIrish Congress of Trade Unions signed theCroke Park Agreement in 2010 to reduce the likelihood of strike action in the public sector and facilitate a programme of cost savings without further pay cuts or compulsory redundancies.[101] Nevertheless, Ireland's government debt stood at €148 billion in 2010 (95 per cent ofGDP) and the forecast deficit for 2011 was €15.7 billion.[102]
Under the Troika agreement, continued austerity measures would be required. Fianna Fáil's manifesto largely restated the commitments in the EU–IMF deal. Fine Gael's "Five-Point Plan" advocated minimising tax rises on business and employment to stimulate job creation, and the sale of state assets to raise funds, for a total of 28% revenue raising to 72% spending cuts. Labour proposed an even mix of tax increases and spending reductions. Sinn Féin suggested a stimulus package to create jobs and the introduction of a wealth tax.[103] There were concerns that Ireland would have to increase its12.5% corporation tax rate, perceived as core to the country's economic brand.[104] Although Fine Gael and Labour did not run on a joint platform as they had in 2007, both parties shifted the language in their manifestos towards the centre ground, which opened up space for Sinn Féin on the left, while a position on the economic right formerly occupied by the Progressive Democrats was taken up by Fianna Fáil.[105]
Political reform played an unusually large role in this election. The academicKevin Rafter compared the reform proposals to the "liberal agenda" underGarret FitzGerald in the 1980s, suggesting that although the ideas were worthy, they served as a distraction from the economic malaise.[106] They were also a way for Fianna Fáil's new leader,Micheál Martin, to distinguish himself from Brian Cowen.[107] Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil supported the abolition ofSeanad Éireann, the upper house of theOireachtas, and the conversion of the Dáil into a unicameral parliament. Fianna Fáil proposed changing the electoral system for the Dáil tomixed-member proportional representation, while Fine Gael advocated reducing the size of the chamber by twenty members. Fine Gael and Labour wanted aregister of lobbyists, seen as necessary due to close ties between Fianna Fáil and the banking and property sectors.[108] Fine Gael had proposed statutorygender quotas for Dáil elections in itsNew Politics document in 2010, but due to internal opposition the policy was not in its manifesto. Labour and Sinn Féin supported gender quotas.[109]
Elsewhere, Fine Gael proposed the abolition of theHealth Service Executive and the introduction of the "Dutch model" ofuniversal health insurance. Labour advocated splitting the HSE's functions to create anindependent operator of care for vulnerable children but did not support wholesale abolition or an insurance-based healthcare model.[110] Labour opposed the re-introduction of third-level fees, which they had abolished as part of theRainbow Coalition in the 1990s, but Fine Gael supported agraduate tax.[110] Fine Gael proposed makingIrish optional at theLeaving Certificate exams, which was opposed byConradh na Gaeilge and theASTI.[111] Labour advocated legislating for theX Case, permitting legal abortion in cases where there was a risk of suicide, but Fine Gael would only commit to an all-party committee to examine the issue. No other major party manifesto mentioned abortion.[112] Labour and Sinn Féin wanted a referendum onsame-sex marriage but Fine Gael was non-committal.[113]
At the beginning of the campaign, bookmakers regarded a Fine Gael–Labour coalition as near-certain, offering odds of 1/14 in favour.[104] Despite years of media criticism ofEnda Kenny's performance and a failed leadership challenge barely six months earlier, he was now overwhelming favourite to be Taoiseach.[114] Fine Gael had more to spend on campaigning than any other party: funds of €2.25 million, versus €1 million for Fianna Fáil and €800,000 for the Labour Party.[34] The party's platform was centered on a "Five-Point Plan" intended to reassure voters it was prepared for government. Party figures spread the message relentlessly, to the point of parody;Leo Varadkar, a frontbencher, said after the election that only once politicians had become sick of saying it could they be sure the public had heard it.[115][116]
Labour's campaign focused on the personal popularity of Eamon Gilmore and the prospect of him as the first politician from that party to lead an Irish government. Posters saying "Gilmore for Taoiseach" went up around the country. According to the party's national organiser, David Leach, every internal poll and focus group showed Gilmore beating Kenny hands down.[117] The party's finance spokesperson,Joan Burton, was seen as an impressive media performer.[118] Labour had declined from its polling highs of mid-2010, though, and by the time the campaign began, the party was in danger of being squeezed between Fine Gael and a resurgent Sinn Féin, who had begun making inroads among protest voters on the left.[119]
In 2007, after re-entering theNorthern Ireland Executive under theSt Andrews Agreement, Sinn Féin had moved to the centre in the Republic's general election, abandoning its opposition to the 12.5%corporation tax rate with a view to governing with Fianna Fáil.[120] This would have seen the party in power on both sides of the border. Sinn Féin's intent was advance aunited Ireland, but the party fared poorly at the election.[121] In 2011, with little chance of being in government, the party embraced aleft-wing populist agenda, presenting itself as outside the state's political consensus and opposing the EU–IMF agreement under the sloganThere is a Better Way.[122][123][124]
At Fianna Fáil, the mood was phlegmatic.Seán Dorgan, the party's general secretary, said that the public's attitude had shifted after the Troika arrived. Voters had gone from being angry at Fianna Fáil to ignoring them completely.[114] The party's campaign focused on the future and the personality of Micheál Martin, under the sloganReal Plan, Better Future. The new leader appointed his own frontbench, separate from the outgoing cabinet, which included figures likeJim O'Callaghan andAveril Power who had not previously served in national politics.[104] In contrast to previous elections, at which Fianna Fáil had been accused of "auction politics", in 2011 the party seemed to make a virtue of its inability to promise new spending.[125]
For the Green Party, the situation was bleak. There was speculation that all six of the party's TDs might lose their seats. The Greens were less prepared to fight an election campaign than other major parties. They sought to distance themselves from the government's unpopular record, running an issued-based campaign focused on the need for Green policies and expressing openness to coalition with Fine Gael.[126]
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Labour changed its campaign strategy in 2011: having run slick but inflexible efforts in 2002 and 2007, this time the party decided to hold back funding for the final days so it could respond to the tactics of others.[123] It ran under the sloganOne Ireland: Jobs, Reform, Fairness.
On 3 February, Eamon Gilmore gave a speech describing the Troika agreement as a "bad deal". He suggested thatJean-Claude Trichet, the President of theEuropean Central Bank (ECB), was a "civil servant" and could be persuaded to change the terms of the bailout if there was sufficient political pressure. He said the election was going to determine if policy would be set by the central bank or the elected Irish government, remarking "It's Frankfurt's way or Labour's way". When asked what he would do if the ECB rejected a renegotiation, he said: "We are confident that we can renegotiate it. I will tell you why. The current deal cannot be worked." Joan Burton said: "It would not help Germany if Ireland was crushed by the weight of the adjustment."[127] "Labour's Way" was seen as a misstep by Gilmore, which reinforced perceptions that he could channel public anger but was light on detail.[116][128][129]Ruairi Quinn, a Labour frontbencher and former finance minister, sought to clarify the remark, saying the party would not unilaterally exit the deal and that Gilmore's rhetoric was "part and parcel of an election campaign".[104]
Fine Gael's revival afterRichard Bruton's leadership challenge in June 2010 had been in large part attributed to the performance of the party's new finance spokesperson,Michael Noonan. A veteran of Fine Gael-led governments in the 1980s and 1990s, Noonan had served as party leader for sixteen months in the early 2000s before resigning after a disastrous election in2002. As a backbencher, he had been regarded as prescient in identifying that Irish banks had a problem with solvency rather than liquidity.[115] Noonan was seen as an elder statesman, and, more so than Enda Kenny, was reassuring and authoritative to voters.[130] With Fianna Fáil certain to be put out of government, Fine Gael strategists regarded the party's main opponent as Labour, expecting the election to determine the balance of power between the two in a coalition.[131] The centrepiece of Fine Gael's pitch to voters considering Labour was a commitment not to increase income tax rates. On 8 February, Noonan said Labour was "becoming a seriously high-tax party", a charge rejected by Eamon Gilmore.[115][132]
At the 2007 election, Enda Kenny was widely seen to have lost his sole TV debate against Bertie Ahern.[133] Kenny's perceived weakness as a media performer came to the fore when he refused to participate in a three-wayTV3 leaders' debate on 8 February chaired byVincent Browne, a critic of his leadership.[131] He blamed a scheduling conflict; the debate went ahead without him. Fianna Fáil and Labour said he was running scared, but Fine Gael strategists believed the incident had not seriously damaged him.[134][133] Six days later, Kenny metGerman chancellorAngela Merkel andEuropean Commission presidentJosé Manuel Barroso in Berlin. The meeting was intended by the Fine Gael campaign to make Kenny appear a statesman; they compared it to Bertie Ahern meetingIan Paisley at the site of theBattle of the Boyne before the 2007 election.[135] That evening, a five-way leaders' debate onThe Frontline went well for Kenny amid low expectations, and by the end of the second week of campaigning, Fine Gael's poll lead was increasing.[136][135]
Entering the second half of the campaign, Fianna Fáil had made little impact despite a competent effort at national level.[137] Locally, the party was riven with infighting among its candidates, notably inDublin Central andLimerick City.[138][139] Sinn Féin's policies were described as "fairytale economics" by Eamon Gilmore but appealed to the working-class and disaffected young voters the party was trying to win, while Gerry Adams's debate performance was seen as an improvement on a lacklustre showing in 2007.[140][141]
The final two weeks were dominated by the possibility Fine Gael would win an overall majority, something no party had done in a general election since1977. With the likelihood of strong transfers producing a large seat bonus, it was thought Fine Gael could win a majority with close to 40 per cent of the vote.[142] Given the perceived hostility of Irish voters to single-party government, Fine Gael played down their chances of winning outright.[143]
On 15 February, a private poll commissioned by Labour showed the party at 16 per cent, in third place behind Fine Gael on 40 per cent and Fianna Fáil on 18 per cent. Its campaign was plunged into crisis. Having led in the polls less than a year earlier, Labour faced the prospect of failing to enter government altogether.[144] Kenny now polled as the more popular leader.[145] Labour abandoned all talk of "Gilmore for Taoiseach".[146] Gilmore wrote in 2015: "With ten days to go, the question was no longer who would lead the next government, but whether it would be a single-party Fine Gael government or a coalition."[147][144] Labour believed it needed to use its spare resources to mount a "catchy and controversial" campaign against Fine Gael in the final week.[147]
As part of a wider negative push, Labour published a series of newspaper ads under the sloganFine Gael: Every Little Hurts, a play onTesco's mottoEvery little helps.[148] The adverts were designed to resemble a supermarket promotion, with images of a baby, a car, a piggy bank and other goods next to a price tag indicating cuts and tax increases proposed by Fine Gael. Gilmore approved the campaign, believing it would get public attention and influence the election.[149] Tesco made phone calls to Labour protesting the slogan.[144]
Fine Gael faltered in the final week.[150] A series of interviews perceived as poor slowed Enda Kenny's momentum, and his performance at the finalPrime Time debate was regarded as disappointing.[137] A revitalised Eamon Gilmore went on the attack against Micheál Martin, having held back in theFrontline debate.[151][152] Former TaoiseachGarret FitzGerald endorsed a Fine Gael–Labour coalition, warning his party against trying to govern alone.[153] Final polls suggested that Fine Gael would fall short of a majority.[154]
By the campaign's end, Fianna Fáil was polling in the mid-teens. At dissolution, the party had been expected to lose more than half its seats; by election day, it was anticipated it could emerge with as few as twenty, andTánaisteMary Coughlan was regarded as in trouble.[155] Though Micheál Martin predicted the party would retain a presence in every constituency, media outlets said it faced wipeout in much of the country, including Kerry and most of Dublin and Cork.[156][157][158]
TV debates had been a feature of Irish elections since 1982.[159] In 2011, there were four across three channels, an unprecedented number. Labour's polling success meant they were invited to all of them alongside Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The debate on RTÉ'sThe Frontline on 14 February was the first in Ireland to feature questions from a panel of undecided voters in the studio.[160] The first-ever Irish language election debate was broadcast by TG4 on 16 February, chaired byEimear Ní Chonaola. It provoked a mixed reaction, though Ní Chonaola's performance and the fluency of the leaders were praised.[161][160] The final debate, on RTÉ'sPrime Time on 22 February, was broadcast live onC-SPAN in the United States, while a recording was shown onBBC Parliament in the United Kingdom.[162]
| 2011 Irish general election debates[160] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N°. | Date | Broadcaster | Moderator | Language | Audience | Participants | ||||||||||
| P Participant. N Non-invitee. A Absent invitee. | Adams | Gilmore | Gormley | Kenny | Martin | |||||||||||
| 1 | 8 February | TV3 | Vincent Browne | English | 354,000 | N | P | N | A | P | ||||||
| 2 | 14 February | RTÉ | Pat Kenny | English | 961,000 | P | P | P | P | P | ||||||
| 3 | 16 February | TG4 | Eimear Ní Chonaola | Irish | 408,000 | N | P | N | P | P | ||||||
| 4 | 22 February | RTÉ | Miriam O'Callaghan | English | 800,000 | N | P | N | P | P | ||||||
In 2007, only a third of candidates standing in the general election had a campaign website.[163] By 2011, 74 per cent had aFacebook page and slightly more than half were active onTwitter, leading the vote to be called the "social media election".[164][165] The major parties spent extensively on online advertising, with a budget of about €35,000 needed to be competitive.[166] Fianna Fáil candidates were less likely than those of Fine Gael or Labour to have a social media presence.[167] Some independent candidates likeDylan Haskins came into the campaign with large online followings but were unable to convert them into electoral success.[168] The websitePolitweets.ie found that of the 100 most active candidates on Twitter, 61 failed to get elected, andKevin Rafter said the election was ultimately decided by the televised debates, not social media.[169] BloggersSuzy Byrne andMick Fealty appeared as analysts on RTÉ's election coverage, and on the first day of counting, thehashtag #ge11 was tweeted 22,000 times.[165]
Polls were conducted during the campaign byIpsos MRBI,Red C, andMillward Brown Lansdowne. Overall, the polls during the campaign were regarded as broadly accurate, though the final surveys slightly overestimated Fine Gael and underestimated Fianna Fáil. This was attributed to a swing from Fine Gael to Labour and independents in the final days, as well as a "shy Fianna Fáil voter", who appeared disproportionately among those replying "don't know" to polls.[170] In pre-election polls, voters viewed unemployment and the public finances as the two most important issues, with the health service a distant third.[171]
An exit poll, conducted by Millward Brown Lansdowne for RTÉ, was published at 08:00 on 26 February, the day after the election.[172] According to the poll, Fine Gael was the largest party across every social class, making substantial gains across the board. It won the most votes with every age and gender category. Labour gained with every social class except farmers.[173] National policy was the number-one factor influencing how people voted, compared with candidate and local concerns in 2007.[174] 65 per cent said the new government should focus on reducing spending, versus 7 per cent for raising taxes and 18 per cent for both.[175] 43 per cent wanted a Fine Gael–Labour coalition compared to 18 per cent for a Fine Gael single-party government.[176] Poll respondents regarded Micheál Martin as having performed best in the TV debates, but only 35 per cent of those favouring him voted for Fianna Fáil.[177]
The election result was a catastrophe for Fianna Fáil. The party emerged with its lowest-ever vote, 17 per cent, and its smallest presence in the Dáil, 20 TDs. Its decline of 58 seats was the largest ever in a Dáil election.[178] Of the six sitting cabinet ministers who stood for re-election, three –Pat Carey,Mary Coughlan andMary Hanafin – lost their seats.[179] Coughlan's defeat was described as Ireland'sPortillo moment byThe Guardian.[180] Another four former ministers were defeated, including former deputy leaderMary O'Rourke and the former Ceann ComhairleJohn O'Donoghue.[178]
What was left of Fianna Fáil's parliamentary ranks contained few obvious prospects for the future. It returned no female TDs, and its only representative in Dublin was the outgoing Minister for Finance,Brian Lenihan, who died from cancer three months after the election.[181] The party's vote collapsed almost everywhere and among every social group; it fared relatively well in Micheál Martin's hometown of Cork, where its share nevertheless fell by 18 points.[182] Fianna Fáil's internal transfer rate was historically low: where applicable, only 58 per cent of the party's votes were distributed to other party candidates, contradicting the popular narrative that what remained of its support base consisted of loyalists.[183]
Fine Gael became the largest party in the Dáil for the first time in its history, electing 76 TDs with 36 per cent of the vote.[179] It was eight seats short of a majority. The party won four out of five in Enda Kenny's constituency ofMayo, something no party had done before in a five-seater.[150] Kenny won the largest first-preference vote in the country. Having lacked a TD in thirteen constituencies when Kenny became leader in 2002, the party now had a presence everywhere exceptDublin North-West.[184] Its vote in Dublin had more than doubled since 2002.[185] Although 76 seats was a record for the party, its vote share fell short of the 39 per cent won inNovember 1982. Three Fine Gael TDs lost their seats to rivals from their own party.[185]
Labour won its highest-ever vote and seat total, with 37 TDs and a 19 per cent share.[179] The party took the most seats in Dublin despite winning slightly fewer votes than Fine Gael.[185] Labour made historic gains inClare,Cork South-West, and most notablyGalway East, Eamon Gilmore's area of origin, where the party won a seat for the first time ever. It was the first time Labour had elected multiple TDs in Connacht since1927.[185] Poor vote management cost the party second seats inCork East andDún Laoghaire.[186] While impressive, Labour's performance was regarded as underwhelming compared to expectations before the campaign, and left the party in a weaker position relative to Fine Gael than it had been the last time it formed a government with them in1994.[146]
Sinn Féin elected 14 TDs with 10 per cent of the vote, its best result in its modern incarnation. Gerry Adams topped the poll inLouth, attaining the third-highest first-preference vote in the state, and the party won seats in every constituency in theBorder Region.[187][188] In Dublin, the party gained TDs despite a relatively small increase in its vote.[189] With the elections ofPearse Doherty,Mary Lou McDonald andPeadar Tóibín, the parliamentary party was regarded as having a younger and more gender-balanced feel than previously.[190] Sinn Féin now had enough TDs to gain full speaking rights under the Dáil's standing orders.[3] After the election, Adams took over fromCaoimhghín Ó Caoláin as leader of the parliamentary party.[3]
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Elsewhere, the Green Party lost all its TDs, despite speculation thatTrevor Sargent andEamon Ryan might survive.[191] All but four of its candidates failed to wina reimbursement of expenses, and the party fell just short of the 2 per cent national vote needed to secure public funding.[192] This had drastic implications for its continued ability to employ full-time staff.[190] The United Left Alliance won five seats, including returning TDsJoe Higgins andSéamus Healy.[190] Fourteen independents were elected, an increase of nine on 2007, including three who topped the poll in their constituencies:Michael Lowry,Shane Ross andMick Wallace. Despite having been considered an outside bet,Stephen Donnelly took the final seat inWicklow by 112 votes.[193]
Turnout increased slightly on 2007. All opposition parties transferred strongly against Fianna Fáil, but preferencing between Fine Gael and Labour was well below its historic peak in the 1970s.[194][195] Labour were the most transfer-friendly party.[195] Of the TDs elected to the 31st Dáil, fewer than half had been members of the 30th, and there was a record number of first-time deputies, among them the future TaoiseachSimon Harris.[196] The average age of the new Dáil was 49, similar to recent cohorts.[197] A record 25 women were elected, though at 15 per cent of the total this still left Ireland well below the EU average.[198] Labour'sDominic Hannigan andJohn Lyons became the first openly gay TDs.[199]
After the new Dáil began its term, anindirect election was held for the24th Seanad. Only two defeated Fianna Fáil TDs won election to the upper house,Thomas Byrne andDarragh O'Brien.[200] Two former junior ministers,Seán Connick andMartin Mansergh, stood in the election and lost.[201] All three defeated Fine Gael TDs won Seanad seats.[200]
| Election to the31st Dáil (PR–STV) – Turnout 69.9%[202][203][b] | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | ||||||||||||
| Party | Leader | First pref votes | % FPv | Swing% | TDs | Change (since 2007) | % of seats | |||||
| Fine Gael | Enda Kenny | 801,628 | 36.1 | 8.8 | 76 | 25 | 45.8 | |||||
| Labour | Eamon Gilmore | 431,796 | 19.5 | 9.3 | 37 | 17 | 22.3 | |||||
| Fianna Fáil | Micheál Martin | 387,358 | 17.5 |  24.2 | 20[a] | 58 | 12.0 | |||||
| Sinn Féin | Gerry Adams[c] | 220,661 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 14 | 10 | 8.4 | |||||
| Socialist Party[e] | Collective leadership | 26,770 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | |||||
| People Before Profit[e] | Collective leadership | 21,551 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | |||||
| Workers and Unemployed[e] | Séamus Healy | 8,818 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | |||||
| Green | John Gormley | 41,039 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |||||
| SKIA | Michael Gleeson | 4,939 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |  | 0 | |||||
| Workers' Party | Mick Finnegan | 3,056 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | |||||
| Christian Solidarity | Richard Greene | 2,102 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | |||||
| Fís Nua | None | 938 | 0 | New | 0 | New | 0 | |||||
| Independent | — | 269,703 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 14 | 9 | 8.4 | |||||
| Total | 2,220,359 | 100 | — | 166 | — | 100 | ||||||
Enda Kenny described the election result as a "democratic revolution" and moved quickly to form a government.[204] While counts were still ongoing, Kenny and Eamon Gilmore met for eighty minutes on 28 February to discuss policies and portfolios. Labour wanted a 9–6 split of cabinet posts, but Fine Gael insisted on a 10–5 division to reflect the election results. They also disagreed on which party would get the finance portfolio.[205]
Brian Cowen allowed the two parties use ofGovernment Buildings and access to the civil service. The negotiating teams were briefed byCentral Bank of Ireland governorPatrick Honohan and economistColm McCarthy, as well as officials from theDepartment of Finance and theNational Treasury Management Agency. In spite of personality clashes between the two leaders, this information reportedly created a tone of constructive engagement, as the two parties became fully aware of the scale of the fiscal crisis.[206] Labour insisted on maintaining child benefit rates and not introducing third-level fees. The two parties agreed to bring forward a Jobs Budget to stimulate the economy.[207] A programme for what was described as aGovernment of National Recovery was agreed late on 5 March.[208]
The following day, the agreement was ratified by the Fine Gael parliamentary party and a special conference of Labour delegates. Fine Gael TDs unanimously approved the programme, but two Labour TDs,Tommy Broughan andJoanna Tuffy, opposed it.[209] The cabinet was to be divided 10–5 in favour of Fine Gael, but Labour got asuper junior minister and their choice ofattorney general.[210] The Department of Finance was split, a measure planned before the election, and Labour secured the new role ofMinister for Public Expenditure and Reform.[211][212] It was the seventh time in Irish history that Fine Gael and Labour had formed a government together.[213]
On 9 March, seventy-nine years to the day afterCumann na nGaedheal had made way for the first Fianna Fáil government, Enda Kenny waselected Taoiseach by the31st Dáil by a record margin of 117 to 27.[214] There was considerable goodwill towards the new government. As well as Fine Gael and Labour, several independent TDs voted for Kenny, and Fianna Fáil abstained.[215] His cabinet was revealed later that day, with Gilmore as Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Michael Noonan as Minister for Finance. Only two women were appointed to the new cabinet, one fewer than had been selected by Brian Cowen in 2008; there was surprise at the decision to make Joan BurtonMinister for Social Protection instead of giving her a senior economic portfolio.[215][216] This decision was criticised by journalists Olivia O'Leary andJustine McCarthy, who regarded it as sexist; it was reportedly a consequence of growing mistrust between Burton and Gilmore.[217]
In the immediate aftermath,Diarmaid Ferriter andDavid McCullagh compared the election tothe 1918 vote which had swept theIrish Parliamentary Party from office and led toSinn Féin establishing theFirst Dáil.[218] Ferriter argued that Fianna Fáil would struggle to make itself relevant on the opposition benches.[219]Peter Mair remarked on parallels between Fianna Fáil's collapse and those ofChristian Democracy in Italy and theProgressive Conservatives in Canada, as well as the slower decline of Northern Ireland's founding party, theUlster Unionists.[220]
Ferriter described the election as a personal triumph for Enda Kenny. The new Taoiseach had proven his doubters wrong and seen off a challenge from what the author termed "posh boys" in his own party. Though frequently underestimated, Kenny had demonstrated a "ruthless canniness" borne of three and a half decades in public life.[221] The journalist Pat Leahy wrote that Kenny's combination of good humour and seriousness of purpose became popular with voters during the campaign.[222] Ferriter also remarked that in common with European sister parties, the Greens had suffered from a fickleness in their support base.[223]Deaglán de Bréadún compared the Greens to "early Christians", saying their beliefs would endure despite an electoral trouncing.[41] Internationally,Bloomberg considered the election result a bad omen for othereuro zone leaders, including French presidentNicolas Sarkozy who was up for re-election in 2012.[224]
At the time, the election was the third most volatile in democratic Europe since 1945, afterItaly in 1994 andthe Netherlands in 2002.[225] Although there had been a modest shift to the left, analysts wondered if 2011 qualified as a realigning election, given the survival of Ireland's traditional party system and the replacement of one government led by the centre-right with another.[226][89][227] Writing a decade later, Ferriter described the vote as "revenge rather than revolution".[228] The replacement of Fianna Fáil with a Fine Gael–Labour coalition represented historic continuity; Mair wrote that the volatility of the electorate in the absence of a major new party was virtually without precedent internationally.[229] He said Ireland was now a "one-and-two-halves party system", and believed Fianna Fáil would spend a long period in opposition but was likely to return to power in the medium term.[230] A study by Stephen Quinlan and Martin Okolikj found that voter loyalty to Fianna Fáil had been declining in the 2000s, and the party had become increasingly reliant on the economy to buttress its support, especially among educated voters.[231] Ferriter said it was ironic that the party's survival had been assured by the PR–STV electoral system it had twice tried to abolish in the twentieth century.[228]
According to the political scientist Gary Murphy, Irish policy-making had been hollowed out bysocial partnership and an over-cosy relationship between government and business, leading to the bank guarantee's emergence from "a let's-hope-for-the-best mentality".[232] A 2013 study said that although media outlets were under severe commercial pressure due to the economic crisis, there was lesshorse race journalism in 2011 than at previous elections and a greater focus on policy.[233] Two studies into the election outcome identified the growth of class-based voting behaviour, especially for Fine Gael among wealthier segments and Sinn Féin with poorer voters, and the emergence of a conscious left-right ideological split among the public.[234][235]
Peter Mair commented that although seismic, the election had not delivered real change, as the EU–IMF deal remained in place almost in its entirety and limited the new government's room for manoeuvre. He compared the situation to the emerging democracies of the Balkans in the 1990s, where external creditors had played a dominant role in policy, engendering popular anger and undermining the legitimacy of the democratic process.[236] Political scientists Niamh Hardiman and Aidan Regan wrote that while Ireland had experienced remarkably little social conflict during the economic crisis, the collapse of Fianna Fáil had opened up space for more radical ideas at a time when faith in political institutions was at an all-time low.[237]
"Frankfurt's Way or Labour's Way" came back to haunt Eamon Gilmore after the election, as the deal with the Troika was not renegotiated.[238] "Every Little Hurts" also became a source of embarrassment, associated in the public mind with broken promises.[239] Gilmore later expressed regret at not checking the specific claims in the ad more closely.[149][151]Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, who did not use the ad in his constituency, said in 2015 that it had been "silly" of Labour to make such detailed attacks.[240]
Ireland exited the Troika bailout programme in late 2013. Although strong economic growth resumed in the mid-2010s, the Fine Gael–Labour coalition became unpopular due to austerity and itshighly contentious attempt to roll out domestic water charges.[241] In 2014, the two parties made substantial losses inlocal andEuropean elections, and Fianna Fáil, still led by Micheál Martin, became the largest force in local government again.[242] Eamon Gilmore resigned as Labour leader in July 2014 and was replaced by Joan Burton, the first woman to head the party.[243] She immediately sacked Gilmore from the cabinet.[244]
In 2016, Fine Gael lost 26 seats atthe general election while Labour shed more than three-quarters of its TDs. Fianna Fáil more than doubled its representation and Sinn Féin also made gains. TheSocial Democrats – a new party co-founded by former Labour junior ministerRóisín Shortall, who had resigned from the party in 2012 over health cuts – returned three TDs.Renua, a party formed by a breakaway of Fine Gael TDs opposed to theProtection of Life During Pregnancy Act, lost all its seats.[245] After the election, a Fine Gael–independent minority government was formed withconfidence and supply from Fianna Fáil, a precursor to the two parties agreeing a coalition in2020 and ending the historiccivil war divide in Irish politics.[246][247] Enda Kenny became Fine Gael's longest-serving Taoiseach before stepping down in 2017 and being replaced byLeo Varadkar.[248]
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