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 County results Congressional district resultsPortman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Fisher: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of manyOhio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-termRepublican U.S. SenatorGeorge Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term.[2] Former Representative RepublicanRob Portman won the open seat.
This was one of the five Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state thatBarack Obama won in the2008 presidential election.
With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, formerDirector of the Office of Management and Budget,United States Trade Representative, andCongressmanRob Portman andState AuditorMary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination.[3] FormerOhio Secretary of StateKen Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of theRepublican National Committee.[4]
When Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day.[5] Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment.[6] Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced asgubernatorial candidateJohn Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010.[7]
Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run againstBetty Sutton inOhio's 13th congressional district instead,[8] leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.[9]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rob Portman | 667,369 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 667,369 | 100.00% | ||
CongressmanTim Ryan,Secretary of StateJennifer Brunner, andLieutenant GovernorLee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich.[11]Ohio GovernorTed Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner torun for re-election rather than run for the Senate.[12]Cuyahoga County CommissionerPeter Lawson Jones andOhio State RepresentativeTyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.[13][14]
On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher.[12][15][16] Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.[17]
Fisher was endorsed by GovernorTed Strickland and U.S. RepresentativesJohn Boccieri,Tim Ryan,Zack Space, andCharlie Wilson.[18]
Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.[19]
Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.[20]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jennifer Brunner | Lee Fisher | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[21] | January 29 – February 2, 2009 | 492 | ± 4.4% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 53% |
| Quinnipiac University[22] | March 10–15, 2009 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 14% | 18% | 1% | 46% |
| Quinnipiac University[22] | April 28 – May 4, 2009 | 437 | ± 4.7% | 16% | 20% | 1% | 59% |
| Quinnipiac University[23] | June 26 – July 1, 2009 | 483 | ± 4.5% | 21% | 24% | 2% | 51% |
| Research 2000[24] | July 6–8, 2009 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 17% | 22% | — | 61% |
| Quinnipiac University[25] | September 10–13, 2009 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 17% | 26% | 2% | 55% |
| Quinnipiac University[26] | November 5–9, 2009 | 394 | ± 4.9% | 22% | 24% | 1% | 51% |
| Quinnipiac University[27] | February 16–21, 2010 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 20% | 29% | 2% | 48% |
| Quinnipiac University[28] | March 25–28, 2010 | 978 | ± 3.1% | 26% | 33% | 1% | 40% |
| Research 2000[29] | April 5–7, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 26% | 35% | — | 39% |
| Quinnipiac University[30] | April 22–26, 2010 | 987 | ± 3.1% | 24% | 41% | 1% | 34% |
| Suffolk University[31] | April 27–29, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 27% | 55% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[32] | April 29 – May 2, 2010 | 980 | ± 3.1% | 23% | 43% | 1% | 32% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Lee Fisher | 380,189 | 55.6% | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Brunner | 304,026 | 44.4% | |
| Total votes | 684,206 | 100.0% | ||
When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million.[34] Originally, the election was seen as a toss-up, as Portman's experience in theBush administration was considered a liability for him.[35] Both PresidentBarack Obama and Vice PresidentJoe Biden campaigned for Fisher.[36] However, Portman consistently led in fundraising and polling, particularly as Portman was unopposed in the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary between Fisher and Brunner was highly divisive.
Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.[37] Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not countries.[38] Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama'sstimulus andcap and trade.[39][40]
Three debates were held inCleveland,Columbus, andToledo.[41] The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[42] | Solid R | October 26, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[43] | Safe R | October 22, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[44] | Safe R | October 26, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Likely R | October 21, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[46] | Safe R | October 26, 2010 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lee Fisher (D) | Rob Portman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report[permanent dead link]) | January 17–18, 2009 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 41% | — | 20% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | January 29 – February 2, 2009 | 1,127 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 27% | 1% | 29% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | March 10–15, 2009 | 1,299 | ± 2.7% | 41% | 33% | 1% | 24% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | April 28 – May 4, 2009 | 1,079 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling (report[permanent dead link]) | June 17–19, 2009 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 32% | — | 27% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | June 26 – July 1, 2009 | 1,259 | ± 2.8% | 37% | 33% | 2% | 26% |
| Research 2000 (report) | July 6–8, 2009 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 10–13, 2009 | 1,074 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 23, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | November 5–9, 2009 | 1,123 | ± 2.9% | 36% | 39% | — | 24% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | December 7, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | 8% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 44% | 4% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 5–6, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 5% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | February 16–21, 2010 | 1,662 | ± 2.4% | 37% | 40% | 2% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 4, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 5% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 20–21, 2010 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 36% | 41% | — | 23% |
| Quinnipiac (report) | March 23–29, 2010 | 1,526 | ± 2.5% | 41% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 30, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 14% |
| Research 2000 (report) | April 5–7, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac Polling (report) | April 21–26, 2010 | 1,568 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | May 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 42% | 4% | 14% |
| UC/The Ohio Poll (report) | May 11–20, 2010 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac Polling (report) | June 22–27, 2010 | 1,107 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 40% | 1% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 26–27, 2010 | 482 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 38% | –– | 22% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 29, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 4% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | July 19, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 5% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 2, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 11% |
| Reuters/Ipsos (report) | August 6–8, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 43% | — | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 16, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 45% | 5% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | August 27–29, 2010 | 475 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 45% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | August 30, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
| The Columbus Dispatch (report) | August 25 – September 3, 2010 | 1,622 | ± 2.2% | 37% | 50% | 3% | 9% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | September 11, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 48% | 3% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 13, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
| CNN/Time Magazine (report) | September 10–14, 2010 | 820 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | 4% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA (report) | September 14, 2010 | 1000 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 49% | 7% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 17, 2010 | 730 | ± 3.6% | 35% | 55% | — | 1% |
| Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) | September 24, 2010 | 850 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 55% | — | 5% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | September 25, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 50% | 3% | 11% |
| CBS/NY Timesreport) | September 23–27, 2010 | 941 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 45% | — | 18% |
| Reuters/Ipsosreport) | September 23–25, 2010 | 440 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 50% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | September 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 51% | 1% | 6% |
| Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) | October 2, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 53% | 2% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | September 29 – October 3, 2010 | 1,025 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 55% | — | — |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) | Oct. 5–8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 52% | 6% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 11, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 57% | 2% | 7% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 8–13, 2010 | 705 | ± 3.7% | 36% | 58% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 12–17, 2010 | 1,183 | ± 2.8% | 34% | 55% | 1% | 10% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 14–18, 2010 | 839 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 58% | 0% | 3% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) | October 15–19, 2010 | 1,502 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 55% | 2% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 20, 2010 | 686 | ± 2.5% | 34% | 55% | — | 2% |
| Wilson Research Strategies (report) | October 20–21, 2010 | 500 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 49% | — | 8% |
| SurveyUSA (report) | October 22–26, 2010 | 950 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 52% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | October 26, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 33% | 57% | 3% | 7% |
| Columbus Dispatch (report) | October 20–29, 2010 | 1,445 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 56% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University (report) | October 25–30, 2010 | 848 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 56% | 1% | 8% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) | October 27–29, 2010 | 460 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 57% | 3% | — |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | October 28–30, 2010 | 1,356 | ± 2.7% | 39% | 57% | 0% | 4% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | October 27–31, 2010 | 930 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 60% | 0% | 1% |
| University of Cincinnati (report) | November 1, 2010 | 930 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 61% | 0% | 0% |
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Portman (R) | $15,998,398 | $10,493,211 | $5,505,186 | $0 |
| Lee Fisher (D) | $6,191,361 | $5,882,729 | $308,631 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[47] | ||||
Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. CongressmanDennis Kucinich.[48]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Robert Jones Portman | 2,168,742 | 56.85% | −6.61% | |
| Democratic | Lee Irwin Fisher | 1,503,297 | 39.40% | +2.85% | |
| Constitution | Eric Deaton | 65,856 | 1.72% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael Pryce | 50,101 | 1.31% | N/A | |
| Socialist | Daniel LaBotz | 26,454 | 0.69% | N/A | |
| N/A | Arthur Sullivan (write-in) | 648 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Majority | 665,445 | 17.44% | |||
| Total votes | 3,815,098 | 100.00% | |||
| Republicanhold | Swing | NA | |||
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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