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2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas
← 2004
November 2, 2010
2016 →
Turnout47.61%
 
NomineeJohn BoozmanBlanche Lincoln
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote451,617288,156
Percentage57.90%36.95%
County results
Congressional district results
Boozman:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Lincoln:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

Elections in Arkansas
Seal of Arkansas
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U.S. Senate elections
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The2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongsideother elections to theUnited States Senate in other states, as well aselections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate and local elections.

This was one of the three Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state thatJohn McCain won in the2008 presidential election along withNorth Dakota andWest Virginia. IncumbentDemocratic SenatorBlanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant GovernorBill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. Lincoln then lost the general election to U.S. RepresentativeJohn Boozman, the younger brother ofFay Boozman, whom Lincoln defeated in1998. Boozman became the firstRepublican sinceReconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator since the1978 United States Senate election in Maine.[1] With Democratic Governor Mike Beebe concurrently winning re-election, this is the last time that Arkansas simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, withearly voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant GovernorBill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, arunoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.[2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[4]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in runoff

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • D.C. Morrison, businessman

Withdrew Before Primary

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Blanche
Lincoln		Bill
Halter		D.C.
Morrison		OtherUndecided
Research 2000[8]May 10–12, 2010600± 5%46%37%6%—11%
Research 2000[9]April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%35%—7% (Drew Pritt)15%
Talk Business[10]April 13, 20101,167± 3%38%31%10%—20%
Research 2000[11]March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%31%——25%
Research 2000[12]November 30 – December 2, 2009600± 4%42%26%——32%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Lincoln
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Halter
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBlanche Lincoln (incumbent)146,57944.51%
DemocraticBill Halter140,08142.53%
DemocraticD.C. Morrison42,69512.96%
Total votes329,355100.00%

Runoff

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Blanche
Lincoln		Bill
Halter		Undecided
Research 2000[14]June 2–4, 2010600± 4%45%49%6%
Research 2000[15]May 24–26, 2010600± 4%44%47%9%

Results

[edit]
Runoff results by county:
Lincoln
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Halter
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary runoff results[16][17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBlanche Lincoln (incumbent)134,75652.00%
DemocraticBill Halter124,40548.00%
Total votes259,161100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, withearly voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Straw poll

[edit]

In December 2009, astraw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[25]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Randy
Alexander		Gilbert
Baker		John
Boozman		Curtis
Coleman		Kim
Hendren		Jim
Holt		Fred
Ramey		Conrad
Reynolds		OtherUndecided
Research 2000[26]May 10–12, 2010–± 4%—12%46%—6%19%——4%13%
Talk Business[27]April 13, 20101,357± 3%3%14%46%5%3%8%1%3%—17%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Boozman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   80–90%
Holt
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
Boozman/Holt tie
  •   20-30%
Baker
  •   30-40%
  •   50-60%
Republican primary results[28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJohn Boozman75,01052.73%
RepublicanJim Holt24,82617.45%
RepublicanGilbert Baker16,54011.63%
RepublicanConrad Reynolds7,1285.01%
RepublicanCurtis Coleman6,9284.87%
RepublicanKim Hendren5,5513.90%
RepublicanRandy Alexander4,3893.09%
RepublicanFred Ramey1,8881.33%
Total votes142,260100.00%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since theReconstruction,Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 byMark Pryor. Lincoln facedLieutenant GovernorBill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blogFiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle.RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[32] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%),Independent Trevor Drown (3%) andGreenJohn Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting theFairTax and privatization of Social Security, as well as trying to tie her name, and beliefs toBill Clinton[33] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[34]

Debates

[edit]
2010 United States Senate general election in Arkansas debate
No.DateLinkDemocraticRepublican
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Blanche LincolnJohn Boozman
1October 13, 2010c-span[35]|c-span[36]PP

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[37]Lean R(flip)October 9, 2010
Inside Elections[38]Likely R(flip)October 8, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Safe R(flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[40]Safe R(flip)October 9, 2010
CQ Politics[41]Lean R(flip)October 9, 2010

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate (Party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Blanche Lincoln (D)$9,508,007$8,431,989$1,886,132$0
John Boozman (R)$1,452,241$968,318$483,923$11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[42]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		John
Boozman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports[43]October 28, 2010500± 4.5%36%55%5%4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research[44]October 15–19, 20101,505± 2.5%41%55%——
Mason-Dixon[45]October 15–19, 2010625± 4%34%55%6%5%
Talk Business[46]October 14, 20101,953± 2.2%36%49%8%7%
Rasmussen Reports[47]September 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%55%3%5%
Reuters/Ipsos[48]September 17–19, 2010600± 4%39%53%1%7%
Mason-Dixon[49]September 12–14, 2010625± 4%34%51%4%11%
Rasmussen Reports[50]August 18, 2010500± 4.5%27%65%4%3%
Rasmussen Reports[51]July 20, 2010500± 4.5%35%60%2%3%
Reuters/Ipsos[52]July 16–18, 2010600± 4%35%54%1%10%
Talk Business[53]July 17, 2010793± 3.7%32%57%5%6%
Magellan Strategies[54]July 12, 2010879± 3.3%29%60%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports[55]June 15, 2010500± 4.5%32%61%4%3%
Research 2000[56]May 24–26, 2010600± 4%38%58%—4%
Rasmussen Reports[57]May 19, 2010500± 4.5%28%66%2%4%
Research 2000[58]May 10–12, 2010—± 4%40%54%——
Research 2000[59]April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%52%——
Rasmussen Reports[60]April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%57%9%5%
Rasmussen Reports[61]March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Research 2000[62]March 22–24, 2010600± 4%42%49%—9%
Rasmussen Reports[63]March 1, 2010500± 4.5%39%48%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports[64]February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%54%4%7%
Public Policy Polling[65]January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%33%56%—11%
Hypothetical polling
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Gilbert
Baker (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)March 20–22, 2009600± 4%48%37%—16%
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%42%—18%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%44%37%—19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%39%47%5%8%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%41%39%2%18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%41%47%6%7%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009—± 4%42%41%——
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%51%3%7%
Public Policy Polling (report)January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%35%50%—15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%40%45%6%8%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%41%49%—10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%53%12%4%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%47%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%39%45%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Kim
Hendren (R)		OtherUndecided
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%47%28%—25%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%44%5%10%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%45%29%2%24%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%39%46%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009—± 4%46%30%——
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%47%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%43%7%12%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%43%48%—9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%5%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%51%11%8%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%50%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%40%46%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Curtis
Coleman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%41%—19%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%45%37%—18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%43%5%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%40%44%7%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009—± 4%44%39%——
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%38%48%4%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%34%50%7%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%41%43%7%10%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%47%—9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%48%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%32%52%8%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%46%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Jim
Holt (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%45%6%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%54%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%41%44%——

with Bill Halter

Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		John
Boozman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%40%48%—12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%48%8%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%56%7%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%47%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%41%50%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Gilbert
Baker (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%37%44%5%13%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%46%—10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%44%7%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%48%10%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%44%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%42%42%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Kim
Hendren (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%42%7%15%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%45%—11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%42%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%45%15%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%45%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%42%42%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Curtis
Coleman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%38%9%18%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%45%44%—11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%40%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%37%43%11%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%41%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Jim
Holt (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%42%8%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%43%9%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%49%12%8%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%42%43%——

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010[66]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJohn Boozman451,61857.90%+13.83%
DemocraticBlanche Lincoln (incumbent)288,15636.95%−18.95%
LibertarianTrevor Drown25,2343.24%+3.24%
GreenJohn Gray14,4301.85%+1.85%
Write-in5190.07%+0.04%
Total votes779,957100.00%N/A
Republicangain fromDemocratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Enten, Harry (December 5, 2014)."Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2020.
  2. ^"Election Dates and Deadlines".Secretary of State of Arkansas. Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  3. ^Cillizza, Chris."The Fix"Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  4. ^DeMillo, Andrew."Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid"Archived October 23, 2012, at theWayback MachineBusiness Week, April 1, 2010.
  5. ^"Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln".KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived fromthe original on July 6, 2009. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  6. ^"CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs".CNN. Archived fromthe original on July 15, 2012. RetrievedMay 27, 2010.
  7. ^"Many U.S. Senate candidates already running".
  8. ^Research 2000
  9. ^Research 2000
  10. ^Talk Business
  11. ^Research 2000
  12. ^Research 2000
  13. ^"Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. June 18, 2010. Archived from the original on May 22, 2010. RetrievedAugust 23, 2014.
  14. ^Research 2000
  15. ^Research 2000
  16. ^"Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results".Politico. June 8, 2010. RetrievedJune 8, 2010.
  17. ^"2010 General Primary (Runoff) Election".Arkansas Secretary of State.
  18. ^Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010)."Boozman running against Lincoln".Politico. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  19. ^Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009)."Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid".CNN. Archived fromthe original on December 7, 2009. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  20. ^Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009)."Tea party leader to run for Senate".Politico. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  21. ^"Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate".KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Archived fromthe original on December 12, 2009. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  22. ^Lyon, John (January 14, 2010)."Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign".Arkansas News. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  23. ^"Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate".KATV. June 23, 2009. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.[dead link]
  24. ^"'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds".WXVT. January 25, 2010. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  25. ^Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009)."Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win".Southwest Times Record. Archived fromthe original on December 15, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2010.
  26. ^Research 2000
  27. ^Talk Business
  28. ^"The 2010 Results Maps".Politico. RetrievedJune 7, 2010.
  29. ^"The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. July 27, 2009. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2011. RetrievedJune 7, 2010.
  30. ^"Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. January 31, 2010. Archived fromthe original on April 18, 2010. RetrievedJune 7, 2010.
  31. ^"John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Archived fromthe original on May 7, 2010. RetrievedJune 7, 2010.
  32. ^"RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln". Archived fromthe original on January 16, 2019.
  33. ^Demillo, Andrew (August 11, 2010)."Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security". BusinessWeek. Archived fromthe original on August 21, 2010. RetrievedAugust 23, 2014.
  34. ^Zwick, Jesse (August 31, 2010)."The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas". The Washington Independent. Archived fromthe original on August 26, 2014. RetrievedAugust 23, 2014.
  35. ^c-span
  36. ^c-span
  37. ^"Senate".Cook Political Report. Archived fromthe original on November 21, 2010. RetrievedOctober 9, 2010.
  38. ^"Senate Ratings".Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedOctober 9, 2010.
  39. ^"2010 Senate Ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived fromthe original on October 28, 2010. RetrievedOctober 9, 2010.
  40. ^"Battle for the Senate".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedOctober 9, 2010.
  41. ^"Race Ratings Chart: Senate".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on October 28, 2010. RetrievedOctober 9, 2010.
  42. ^"2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. RetrievedJuly 25, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  43. ^Rasmussen Reports
  44. ^CNN/Time/Opinion Research
  45. ^Mason-Dixon
  46. ^Talk BusinessArchived July 24, 2011, at theWayback Machine
  47. ^Rasmussen Reports
  48. ^Reuters/Ipsos
  49. ^Mason-Dixon
  50. ^Rasmussen Reports
  51. ^Rasmussen Reports
  52. ^Reuters/Ipsos
  53. ^Talk Business
  54. ^Magellan Strategies
  55. ^Rasmussen Reports
  56. ^Research 2000
  57. ^Rasmussen Reports[permanent dead link]
  58. ^Research 2000
  59. ^Research 2000
  60. ^Rasmussen Reports
  61. ^Rasmussen Reports
  62. ^Research 2000
  63. ^Rasmussen Reports
  64. ^Rasmussen Reports
  65. ^Public Policy Polling
  66. ^"Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. November 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. RetrievedAugust 23, 2014.

External links

[edit]

Debates

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